How many passengers are on when it's my turn?
When do I get on?
It crashes on the 12th flight so 11/12.
The answer depends on whether the same people keep flying on it. Does the person who flew solo also fly when there are two, four, eight, etc people, or is there a pool of 2047 people with each person flying once?
You can chose not to fly Boeing these days and filter for other brands like Airbus
I mistyped it. The original question is your friend rides the plane. What are the chances he died. Not you ride the plane. I think that changes things.That changes nothing, because the question remains vague on how many times whoever (you or your friend) ride the plane.
If you ride the planeI think you should have said, "If you are a passenger on the plane".
The way you worded it, it is 50%.You've fallen for the misdirection in the OP. For any one person taking one or more trips on the plane, the number of other passengers is completely irrelevant.
I'll answer it based on how I think it was meant to be.
In 1/2 of scenarios, 1/1 passengers die. That's you. You're already dead half the time.
In 1/4 of scenarios, 2/3 passengers die. (First passenger makes it, the next two die).
in 1/8 of scenarios, 4/7 passengers die.
In 1/16 of scenarios, 8/15 passengers die.
I think you get it.
So to calculate the odds of you dying, you add (1/2) + (1/4 * 2/3) + (1/8 * 4/7) + (1/16 * 8/15) + ...
or
1/2 + 1/6 + 1/14 + 1/30 + 1/62 + 1/126 + 1/254 + 1/510 + ...
The numbers will continue to get smaller, but you are fucked.
You've fallen for the misdirection in the OP. For any one person taking one or more trips on the plane, the number of other passengers is completely irrelevant.My (correct) answer assumes each passenger is a unique individual. All that matters is that you are one of the total population.
The number of passengers only matters for questions like "What's the expected number of deaths in this fact pattern?"
My (correct) answer assumes each passenger is a unique individual. All that matters is that you are one of the total population.You take one trip on the plane, and there are 1000 other people on it. Your chance of death is 50%.
1/2 + 1/6 + 1/14 + 1/30 + 1/62 + 1/126 + 1/254 + 1/510 + ...what does this eventually converge to, anyway?
The way you worded it, it is 50%.This infinite sum converges to about .8033. So you're only mostly fucked.
I'll answer it based on how I think it was meant to be.
In 1/2 of scenarios, 1/1 passengers die. That's you. You're already dead half the time.
In 1/4 of scenarios, 2/3 passengers die. (First passenger makes it, the next two die).
in 1/8 of scenarios, 4/7 passengers die.
In 1/16 of scenarios, 8/15 passengers die.
I think you get it.
So to calculate the odds of you dying, you add (1/2) + (1/4 * 2/3) + (1/8 * 4/7) + (1/16 * 8/15) + ...
or
1/2 + 1/6 + 1/14 + 1/30 + 1/62 + 1/126 + 1/254 + 1/510 + ...
The numbers will continue to get smaller, but you are fucked.
This infinite sum converges to about .8033. So you're only mostly fucked.
You take one trip on the plane, and there are 1000 other people on it. Your chance of death is 50%.If the plane crashes on the second trip, and you flew on the plane in either trip 1 or trip 2, what is your chance of being dead?
You take a second trip on the same plane, having survived the first trip, and this time there are 1,000,000 other people on that plane. Your chance of dying in that second trip is still 50%.
It really is that simple.
That's another way to see that calculation can't be correct. Anyone repeatedly riding that plane dies with probability one.Nobody's repeatedly riding the plane.
You've fallen for the misdirection in the OP. For any one person taking one or more trips on the plane, the number of other passengers is completely irrelevant.Did you miss the first sentence?
The number of passengers only matters for questions like "What's the expected number of deaths in this fact pattern?"
You take one trip on the plane, and there are 1000 other people on it. Your chance of death is 50%.You don't understand. The plane's chance of crashing on any one flight is not what is being asked. That's why I said he worded it poorly, because it sounds like you're just getting on a plane that has a 50% chance of crashing. Again, that is not the question.
You take a second trip on the same plane, having survived the first trip, and this time there are 1,000,000 other people on that plane. Your chance of dying in that second trip is still 50%.
It really is that simple.
This infinite sum converges to about .8033. So you're only mostly fucked.I knew somebody would eventually verify my logic.
Can someone just state the question clearly lol. Very confused on what is actually being asked.The plane flies until it crashes, which it has a 50% chance to do each time. Post-crash , what are the odds you're dead given you were one of the passengers.
You're missing the fact that once it crashes it can't fly again, and you are always one of the population who were on the plane at some point.
If it's a true random event then the plane crashing before you have a chance to get on it should also be a possibility.You're always one of the people who flew on the plane.