I've never understood this approach of just straight up dismissing polls and asserting that Biden is winning. Shouldn't we all be acting as if it's true and doing what we can to make Biden more popular/get out the vote/figure out what's going wrong?
People are gonna go full shocked Pikachu face if Trump does win by taking the EC as we ignored warnings until it was too late. I feel like this attitude didn't exist even in 2020 when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was leading in polls basically from day 1, sometimes with huge leads. As another poster said, this is coming across as the whole skewed polls thing that Republicans did the last several elections, asserting that polls are inaccurate and that there's a hidden majority on their side, with no evidence.
These people are either straight up forgetting history or not living in reality.
4,000 is a large sample size. Most election polls are done with 1,000 or less.
I'm not laughing at the sample size. I know how data reads. I'm laughing out how they the data was obtained. Cellular and landline are only being answered by certain demographics of people(Hint they lean right).
Genocide is unpopular.Then why did Bush win in 04?
Polls are fucking shit, that's why. Polls are opt-in; the only young people who take them are loser chuds who wanna feel big.The question here is, whose alt? Because this topic seems like an attempt to induce fear and apathy to Biden voters.
What reality do you live in? Polls were not saying Biden was going to crush it in 2020, and they predicted a red wave in 2022 that failed to materialize.
EDIT: Oh fuck me.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1e385363.png
TC's an alt, folks.
According to the article landlines made up less than 6% of the poll. Cell phone is the most accessible means of polling that can't easily be cheesed (anyone can bot an internet poll). Just talking to people in person would suffer an even bigger sampling bias.
NYT's methodology adjusts for the fact that certain demographics are significantly underrepresented by cellular polling by weighting their responses more greatly. This has produced accurate results so far.
Instead of using opinion polls, why not use actual poll data? Ya'know all the elections that have happened from 2020 til now, where the Democrats have been obliterating in almost every single race, but yeah keep clinging to polls.
They do this because they want Dems to lose to "prove the point" that Sanders should have been elected in 2016 & 2020 and that only progressives should be viewed as able to win elections, even though reality paints a different picture. And I say this as a progressive, however I do so as one who accepts the reality of what the U.S. is and that the majority of the country, while supporting their views as individual issues, have confliction with supporting the actual candidates unless it's in a very blue heavy district.I agree. There are some leftists who are so bitter over Sanders losing that they'd rather have another Trump presidency just to teach the Democrats a lesson.
So if we are to disregard polling data should we instead rely on vibes or what people in your bubble say?
Multiple people have already talked about using actual polling/election results in recent elections instead of theoretical/predictive assumptions, which are polls like this, to determine the results of an election. Especially so far out.Very true. Of course, we all need to do our part to not only vote blue, but also ensure that those we know can and will do so as well. Every vote counts.
Once again I'll bring up how all of our media and polling kept fearmongering over a GOP takeover of Congress in 2022 with a red wave/tsunami and they only got +5 in the House, which is likely a historical low given the usual pattern where their party normally would win big.
The country is especially turned off by Trump and Trumpism. The fact that the GOP has turned their party's mission into nothing else except appeasing him and justifying his criminality/fascism has done them literally no favors.
If it was one election that'd be a fluke, however it's a pattern that's been observed since 2018.
Multiple people have already talked about using actual polling/election results in recent elections instead of theoretical/predictive assumptions, which are polls like this, to determine the results of an election. Especially so far out.
Once again I'll bring up how all of our media and polling kept fearmongering over a GOP takeover of Congress in 2022 with a red wave/tsunami and they only got +5 in the House, which is likely a historical low given the usual pattern where their party normally would win big.
The country is especially turned off by Trump and Trumpism. The fact that the GOP has turned their party's mission into nothing else except appeasing him and justifying his criminality/fascism has done them literally no favors.
If it was one election that'd be a fluke, however it's a pattern that's been observed since 2018.
That's a bunch of speculation and your saying polling was way off in those elections when it wasn't. Everything fell within the margin of error on unbiased polls (obviously conservative propaganda polls don't count). Polls this election show a cointoss between the two.
hat means everyone needs to vote and make sure they get other people who are likely to vote Biden to vote as well (don't encourage people to vote who might vote Trump, tell them he has it in the bag or whatever, who cares). Yeah polls can change by election time, but I see no reason to just feel like everything is going to be fine
That entire last paragraph is baseless speculation based on how you feel since you are disregarding polls.
And we all exist in an information bubble and cannot know how the country feels
Instead of using opinion polls, why not use actual poll data? Ya'know all the elections that have happened from 2020 til now, where the Democrats have been obliterating in almost every single race, but yeah keep clinging to polls.
The question here is, whose alt? Because this topic seems like an attempt to induce fear and apathy to Biden voters.
So if we are to disregard polling data should we instead rely on vibes or what people in your bubble say?
Actually, I listen to various programs and one of those has actual state candidates, many of those who go on to win their elections in the recent elections I've been talking about, talk about what they hear when they knock on doors. Sometimes their campaign will knock on 100k doors during their election. So yeah, I'm obviously going to trust situations where I hear actual candidates actually talking to 100k real people over polling that samples a few thousand. This is not just speculation or my feels, I go off actual results and feedback from those putting in the work to become representatives and senators and what they have to say.
I live in Japan, the media here is overwhelmingly pro-Palestine as is the population (based on polls anyway, but I also only ever see pro-Palestine demonstrators).So long as they're not immigrating to Japan, that is. A number of Japanese citizens aren't quite happy with more refugees like the Kurds.
This is actually a really bad source of information. I don't want to get into the details on how polling works and why that's actually a really bad substitute for it, but you need to realize no matter how good the media you consume might sound, it's still a bubble.
I live in Japan
But I know Americans are the opposite (again according to the polls, but international polls now show America being basically the only first world country with a positive view of Israel). They have a different media bubble in America and it causes them to have a different outlook despite it being the exact same event. If you watched a bunch of right-wing crap on Fox News or similar you would have a different idea of how people feel than you get from the media you consume now. People are more segregated than ever, causing a far bigger dissonance between the bubble we are in and reality.
https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/the-nytimes-poll-flawed-and-biased
It's not when their results demonstrate the polling predictions to be wrong. It shows that the overwhelmingly majority are not being accounted for in polling. I understand the scientific basis behind polling, however actual election results matter far more than theoretical/assumptive predictions and the results show that the polls often undersell Dem performance and the issues people care about.
Again. The actual polls, not the Republican propaganda polls, were not wrong about the election results. I don't know why you keep insisting that they were.
As for the rest. It's basically impossible not to be an information bubble today. I am not going to recommend you start reading Fox to understand how the Trumpers think, but you do need to be aware these people are not reading, watching, or interacting with the same people you are.
Which is why I only see Palestinians suffering on the news, whereas you clearly have something else going on in America because you still overwhelmingly support Israel. We are consuming different information.
Edit:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Just adding that in, because you really need to reevaluate this whole polls were wrong thing you are saying.
polls lmao
Edit: Oh wait, this is from March, so it's about a completely different poll.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.Lol
It's obviously not that much of a deal breaker if people are fine with it being worse.
The question here is, whose alt? Because this topic seems like an attempt to induce fear and apathy to Biden voters.
The question here is, whose alt? Because this topic seems like an attempt to induce fear and apathy to Biden voters.
How is this going to induce apathy? If anything it will get ppl to fight harder for Biden and not think that it is the bag. Like ppl did with Hillary.
It's interesting how we have anti-intellectualism on every end of the spectrum now.Ah yes people taking polls with a grain of salt is definitely equal to the side who thinks doctors want to kill them with evil vaccines
Trump dragged us into the gutter.
Why aren't any of these polls translating into GOP success in these special elections? They've been consistently getting crushed/ losing
The polling of the race raises another possibility: that Mr. Biden is just that much weaker than Mr. Suozzi. Last week, a Siena College poll not a New York Times/Siena poll, to be clear found Mr. Biden running a full nine percentage points behind Mr. Suozzi and trailing Donald J. Trump in the district.
from the same NYT clowns using the same polling techniques.
please get it already: polls right now are worthless, especially from the NYT.
Who's alt is TC
One, I have no interest in Biden losing or Trump winning to prove some point about Bernie. That's absolute nonsense and not the lesson anyone would take from such an event.What are you doing in the face of this danger you see from these polls
Second, y'all better hope you're right because if you're not, you're going to be directly responsible for dismissing obvious warning signs. I recognize the danger we're all facing here and that's why I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
What are you doing in the face of this danger you see from these polls
The Presidential electorate is also different than special elections or even Congressional ones.
That's worrying. If the campaign doesn't accept the polling is weak to begin with then they won't make any adjustments to counteract it.I would point out that less than an hour ago Biden challenged Trump for both him and their vps (lol) to debate. So like we said the hand wringing is unwarranted.
It's really weird. Obama took his shaky polls seriously and reinvigorated his campaign, going from calm and wise to energetic and snappy, flipping the numbers and beating Romney. Romney, Hillary, Trump, and now Biden's campaigns however seem unable to comprehend data that doesn't say they're winning. "It's impossible that key electorates like that guy, our country's better than that" vibes.
People call Obama a generational politician but maybe he actually stood out for being the only competent one. lol
I would point out that less than an hour ago Biden challenged Trump for both him and their vps (lol) to debate. So like we said the hand wringing is unwarranted.Oohh, that's interesting
Joe Biden has run a few campaigns. He knows what to do and more importantly when to do it.