Next contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too?

Board 8

Board 8 » Next contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too?
XIII_rocks
12/20/2011
09:53 PM
#1
I'm sorry I can't hear you from up here in the land of sensible, glorious straight picks.

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LeonhartFour
12/20/2011
09:53 PM
#2
If it's as predictable as this one, then yes.

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iGenesis
12/20/2011
09:53 PM
#3
That stupid X% pick idea was nothing short of MORONIC.

Thanks a lot for nothing, Allen.

When someone with 39700 before the final match can finish in 48th place, you know something is f***ing wrong with this contest.

I say that Allen should go back and recompute the placements based on straight outcome + "number of votes" tiebreaker only.

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Lopen
12/20/2011
09:58 PM
#4
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick. I gave up mid contest because I didn't think such a point gaining measure would exist!

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Sorozone
12/20/2011
09:59 PM
#5

From: Lopen | #004
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick. I gave up mid contest because I didn't think such a point gaining measure would exist!


Same. : |

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TimJab
12/20/2011
09:59 PM
#6
u mad

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iGenesis
12/20/2011
10:01 PM
#7

From: Lopen | #004
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick


14/50 perfects survived. That means those who "made a bad pick" are in the overwhelming majority -- 72% to be exact. It's not like *I* did something unusually stupid that didn't happen to the majority.

I don't see your name on any leaderboard. You can stop being full of yourself.

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LordoftheMorons
12/20/2011
10:01 PM
#8
Well you did pick Link > 70%

That was pretty ill-advised.

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TimJab
12/20/2011
10:02 PM
#9

From: Lopen | #004
I gave up mid contest


From: iGenesis | #007
I don't see your name on any leaderboard. You can stop being full of yourself.


...

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TimJab
12/20/2011
10:02 PM
#10

From: LordoftheMorons | #008
Well you did pick Link > 70%

That was pretty ill-advised.


XD he's complaining after he did this?

XFD

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junk_funk
12/20/2011
10:02 PM
#11
I made the leader board because of my excellent 1% pick. So bugger off.

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iGenesis
12/20/2011
10:03 PM
#12

From: junk_funk | #011
I made the leader board because of my excellent 1% pick. So bugger off.


hurr durr

next contest should be based on the final match only. you can fail the first 62 as long as you get lucky on the last one!

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AlecTrevelyan006
12/20/2011
10:04 PM
#13
You could have just gone straight pick.

We had 50 perfects, most weren't getting prizes. He gave you the chance to put your fate in your own hands.

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Lopen
12/20/2011
10:10 PM
#14
Sorry I just think it's funny when people kill themselves on Link > 70%. That's like the dumbest pick I've ever seen.

And as Timjab so elegantly put it, you're not on any leaderboards either. Difference is you killed yourself on picks that had literally no chance of happening vs getting a poll that was decided by less than 1% wrong.

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Xcarvenger
12/20/2011
10:11 PM
#15
I don't really mind about the % picking thing. 1% is a huge risk, but has a great payoff, so it's to be expected. However, one thing that could have been done much better: He should have at least decided on the final jeopardy thing way earlier than a few hours before the first semifinal. I took the Pokemon upset thinking that's the only chance I had to catch up to the perfects should it happen even if it's not likely (banked in Round 1 and Cloud > Link or Mario/Pokemon > Link are even more unlikely), and then of course Allen announced the final jeopardy thing an hour after I left the night for good, thus ruining the entire battle contest for me! And if you look at my Oracle predictions, I was 100% confident that Link will finish between 55-60% too, so I'd have picked that (but I might be tempted to do 1% on 56-57 >_>). Oh well, such is life.

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Menji76
12/20/2011
10:12 PM
#16
Don't be mad you made a terrible pick. There was absolutely no reason to pick that high.

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pojr
12/20/2011
10:18 PM
#17
iGenesis, just wondering, what was your score before and after the final battle?

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HyperSage
12/20/2011
10:32 PM
#18

From: XIII_rocks | #002
I'm sorry I can't hear you from up here in the land of sensible, glorious straight picks.


Indeed, greetings from Rank #22!

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#19
Post #19 was unavailable or deleted.
junk_funk
12/20/2011
10:49 PM
#20
Let's see if you can follow. To begin, I had to find out how much SFF Link would have on Mario because that would play a significant role.

To do this, I used Mario's match against Mega Man in 2010. Mario got 58.38%. Then I looked at what Link got on Mega Man in 2004 (because he's pretty stable year in and year out). Link got 67.61%.

Subtracting those two numbers (67.61 - 58.38) gave me the difference in strength between the two. Right around 9.23%.

After that, it was on to calculating the SFF factor. I looked at Mario's match with Link in 2010. Link won by 64.57%. If Link is 9.23% stronger, then on can calculate how much SFF was involved in that match (64.57 - 9.23 = 55.34). So in terms of SFF, Link would nab 5.34% from Mario.

BUT...that was last year and this contest runs on a whole new system with the rivalry factor. Still, Link/Ganon got 57.72% on Cloud/Seph. Cloud/Seph roughly = Trainers in strength. Mario/Bowser got 55.64% on the Trainers.

Based on that, one could expect Link/Ganon to get 52.08% on Mario/Bowser (57.72 - 55.64).

HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon.

That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck.

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RingoBell
12/20/2011
11:07 PM
#21
Um ... what's all this about changing rules in mid-contest?

From http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals.html :

New For This Contest: The Final Battle Challenge. After the 62nd battle (the second semifinal), all points will be banked, and there will be a 24-hour gap before the final battle. During that day, you can make your pick for the final battle, and wager any amount from 0 up to the total number of points you have earned in the contest so far on the outcome of the final battle. Pick correctly, and you might double your score - pick incorrectly, and you could lose it all.

Sounds like somebody's upset that they didn't read the rules before the contest started.

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LordoftheMorons
12/20/2011
11:09 PM
#22
RingoBell posted...
Um ... what's all this about changing rules in mid-contest?

From http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals.html :

New For This Contest: The Final Battle Challenge. After the 62nd battle (the second semifinal), all points will be banked, and there will be a 24-hour gap before the final battle. During that day, you can make your pick for the final battle, and wager any amount from 0 up to the total number of points you have earned in the contest so far on the outcome of the final battle. Pick correctly, and you might double your score - pick incorrectly, and you could lose it all.

Sounds like somebody's upset that they didn't read the rules before the contest started.

Bacon actually did change it; under the original rules only a straight pick would have been available.

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XIII_rocks
12/20/2011
11:10 PM
#23
junk_funk posted...
Let's see if you can follow. To begin, I had to find out how much SFF Link would have on Mario because that would play a significant role.

To do this, I used Mario's match against Mega Man in 2010. Mario got 58.38%. Then I looked at what Link got on Mega Man in 2004 (because he's pretty stable year in and year out). Link got 67.61%.

Subtracting those two numbers (67.61 - 58.38) gave me the difference in strength between the two. Right around 9.23%.

After that, it was on to calculating the SFF factor. I looked at Mario's match with Link in 2010. Link won by 64.57%. If Link is 9.23% stronger, then on can calculate how much SFF was involved in that match (64.57 - 9.23 = 55.34). So in terms of SFF, Link would nab 5.34% from Mario.

BUT...that was last year and this contest runs on a whole new system with the rivalry factor. Still, Link/Ganon got 57.72% on Cloud/Seph. Cloud/Seph roughly = Trainers in strength. Mario/Bowser got 55.64% on the Trainers.

Based on that, one could expect Link/Ganon to get 52.08% on Mario/Bowser (57.72 - 55.64).

HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon.

That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck.

...nice

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#24
Post #24 was unavailable or deleted.
iGenesis
12/20/2011
11:33 PM
#25

From: junk_funk | #020
HOWEVER, add in the SFF factor that Link will drain from Mario (52.08 + 5.34), and you come out to 57.42% in favor of Link/Ganon.

That's how I arrived to my pick. Not by luck.


That's wonderful and I'm glad it worked out for you, but there are also numerous situations when x-stat computations fail. otherwise, you'd have statisticians consistently winning these contests.

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junk_funk
12/21/2011
12:13 AM
#26
iGenesis posted...
you'd have statisticians consistently winning these contests.

Oracles and Gurus are statisticians. That's what they use to make their picks. That's why the consistently do better than casuals. I only missed one match in the battle bracket (Gordon>Wright). I deserve the spot I got.

None of the Oracles in their right minds would have taken Link > 70%. Anyone who risked 1% on that call deserved 0 points. Next time, if you're too lazy to look into the percentages, just do a straight bet and be the lucky casual you set out to be.

I bet you took the majority Board's advice on every match anyways and that's why you had a perfect. I can't think of any other reason why you would go perfect and then obtusely pick Link with that high of a %.

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X_Dante_X
12/21/2011
12:18 AM
#27
I got 96th place, with a 20 battle streak and a straight bet on link

#swag

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Raka_Putra
12/21/2011
12:21 AM
#28
ahaha.wav

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AlecTrevelyan006
12/21/2011
09:05 AM
#29

From: iGenesis | #025
That's wonderful and I'm glad it worked out for you, but there are also numerous situations when x-stat computations fail. otherwise, you'd have statisticians consistently winning these contests.


Didn't you just post about how stats-topic regular Yoblazer has so often made money in these contests?

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iGenesis
12/23/2011
01:44 AM
#30

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #029
Didn't you just post about how stats-topic regular Yoblazer has so often made money in these contests?


He's one person. Do other statisticians win as often as Yoblazer? Looking at past leaderboards it would appear not.

If a billion monkeys were to make random picks, one of them would win every single contest.

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Princess Anri
12/23/2011
02:42 AM
#31
Yeah but the other 999,999,999 monkeys wouldn't whine about it.

They'd just say "gg, bro" and move on with their lives.

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iGenesis
12/23/2011
03:49 PM
#32

From: Princess Anri | #031
They'd just say "gg, bro" and move on with their lives.


yup, because gf contests are a waste of time.

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Board 8 » Next contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too?