Typing this up ahead of time because I will not be available at day start time (because some people wanted to start day later for some reason) so Ill have time to copy-paste this over.
First of all, most importantly: JC might be Scum.
For those of you who are skeptics, Ill say it like this: JC showed his hand when he didnt care whether or not Peaf lived or died. Even thinking Isquen was Town, at end of day, Peaf still was a worse lynch, given the way he was treating it. More to the point - JC was anti-Han yesterday. Who was the other person most anti-Han (aside from Sultan)? Peaf.
If JC was Town, he would have felt better about Peaf being the anti-Han, and he would have voted to save him. But he specifically did nothing in the tiebreaker.
Additionally, the lynchpin for JC was that, when I gave a post explaining my whole thing about Isquen, he brushed it off and said Well if nobody else wants to vote Han but frankly, if hes bringing the Isquen vote into question, then he would not have ignored that post. Why did he ignore it?
Because it was a good post and it hurt his stance on me. His stance on me which was Throw shade at Han because others have and maybe we can make it catch. But if he truly thought I was Scum, he would have cared who the other people aligned with him were. As he did not vote to save Peaf, he did not truly think I was Scum.
Going from there
For Peaf to be Scum, hed have to have made an insane gambit at end of day. Im good to call him Town from here. I expect him to be dead come start of day though, because I feel like everyone will think that.
Lea is also someone I see being dead at start of day IF Dumey is Scum. If shes dead, then I would say Dumey is the one to gun for, but likely, well be gunning for Dumey anyway. His name got bandied about and hes a good direction to go. But yeah, its hard to see Lea as Scummy she just hasnt had the Town energy, but she has reason not to. Im biased to not lynch Lea, but Im still not feeling it. And I liked how she played that end of day.
Plums choice to lynch Isquen at the end of day was, well, curious. Its only truly Scummy if him and Peaf are Scum/Scum which is like, not likely at all? I liked that Peaf and I were settling on him, but him choosing to nail Isquen to the cross was very pro-Town (if Peaf is also Town, which should be the default thought atm). Plum could be someone Im wrong about, so I wont stamp with Town approval, but Im not thinking Plum atm.
Hb, however, did the bad thing - projected a lynch of Peaf without committing to it right away. It was very Its better for Peaf to be lynched, but I dont want to look too Scummy doing it. There is also a chance that Hb got a Townread from everyone after gunning for Sultan and playing mad, given that I wouldnt say he had a strong presence for the rest of the day. However, if Im alive, it means I was wrong about things, and Hb would be one that I think Id be wrong about. Its probably safer to assume that Scum would be hands-off at end-of-day when they could have been available, so him voicing up was unnecessary if the responsibility fell on someone else to ensure Town died.
Red - no reason whatsoever to show up at end of day like that. If hes Scum, Red would just stay gone in the last 10 minutes instead of going oops Im here. And we cant even say he was trying to save a Scumbuddy because Isquen flipped Town. I will also put down here that one of the things I thought was that Reds earlier posts in topic seemed Townish, moreso than Ulti, so I find everyone who suggested Ulti be lynched over Red to look worse.
Kirby - Bouncing off of that, I think Kirby was the only person who said to lynch Ulti over Red, which is good. He had real analysis of that situation. If Im alive, Kirby is one of the people I could be wrong about, so at least at the moment, Im thinking of him as Townish. He also had no reason to defend me with the arguments he did if he is Scum and Peaf is Town smarter to just let the suspicion ride on me.
Sultan - another choice for someone I could be wrong about. If Plum and Hb end up right about him, then it might just be that Sultan is Scum. I dont think he is but I cant say for sure because Im in a doubting phase. But I dont think he played the last topic very well. But then again, Sultan mixing things up makes sense for him.
Death - I am not a good Death reader. I would say expressly to Peaf that I dont think Death leaving his vote down is alignment indicative. I think it was just Death picking the side of the line that he believed. That said, other people tend to be better at reading Death than me, so Im cool to stay hands-off for now.
SBell - Last one directly related to the end-of-day that Ill speak of. SBell
could
be Scum. SBell could be buddying me. I could be wrong about SBell. I dont think I am, but it is a possibility that SBell is a place where Im wrong. However, weve had spats in games before - they tend to be Town/Town when that happens. In games where SBell is not Town, he doesnt have quite the fire, and I think we managed to successfully de-escalate and move forward productively. I also think its telling that SBell also detached and said not to lynch Peaf, when as buddy, he would have kept pushing Peaf with me.
Ben - I actually left Ben off when I originally typed this all up, since I needed to review him, so lets see what happened: Ben did nothing of note. Then he hopped on Peaf, sort of with me. Stated Peaf/Dumey is Town/Scum probs, which looks bad if Dumey is Scum. Said to lynch Red > Ulti. He managed to say
remarkably
little in the time he was here at days end Suggests Plum over Dumey, but Peaf > Plum. Then he misses the days end and overtime. Pretty bad.
So where does this leave us with everyone else?
Cody - I aint touching that yet. Some people have suggested that the way he has asked questions seems less likely if he has Scum helping him. However, if I were Scum with Cody, I would expressly tell him to act like he knows nothing and ask questions to figure things out from Town. So like, it might make sense to lean Town on him, but I dont want to fully commit to it.
Ctes - Ctes said good things but did nothing of note. Ctes is my biggest pick for snake-in-the-grass of the game. Im sure TIMEZONES have to do with it, but his absence towards the end of day makes me quite uneasy.
Ulti - Probably replaced by this point. Ulti was inarguably less Townish than Red. This could be condemning of people who responded to my hypothetical with saying to lynch Red first, or damning to people like Hb who hid from the response, choosing to say evewyone knows its a dick move to lynch cody, and im gonna focus on that instead of the pawt that can be talked about, which is Ulti vs Wed.
That said, Ulti did nothing of note, and when he did show up, he read a buzzphrase and applied it in the only way he could, which like its not really content that helps? But I dont hate it? Its maybe more Townish than if Scum tried to offer something real - I mean, Ulti could have asked Scumboard for ideas on what was going on if that was all he was going to offer. So I dont feel bad about Ulti at this time.
To summarize:
Town
Peaf
Red
SBell-
Townish
Plum
Lea
Kirby
Hb-
Sultan-
????
Cody+
Ulti+
Death
Scummish
Ctes+
Dumey
Ben
Scum
JC
If Im wrong in my reads, its probably Sultan, SBell, maybe Lea.
"Bordate is a pretty shady place, what with the gangs, casinos, evil corporations and water park." - FAHtastic