| Board List | |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:06:00 PM #493 |
The one problem is that unless the match is close, Link vs. Batman would not be a debated match in the next contest.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 10:26:00 AM #442 |
See, if Cloud wins this contest, Link can get away with winning the next 5 contests without getting removed. So losing here is actually a long term strategy to win more contests. Once in a few years Link has to take a loss to prove that he's not invincible, so that he can win more.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 9:08:00 AM #430 |
That match is much more the fault of sprite Snake than Pikachu. Indeed I'd call it 100% the fault of the sprite round, nothing to do with Pokemon other than they are helped by sprites. And Snake's sprite of course made a much bigger difference, as it does every single time it is used.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:55:00 AM #426 |
Not even zelda fanboys will argue with this. 65-35 win for cloud
The people expressing the most confidence in Link's invincibility are the people who don't like him and campaign for him to be removed from the contest. I guess a Cloud win would set back the "remove Link" plans for a few years. It's like a conspiracy to stop Link from winning the future contests he so richly deserves.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:53:00 AM #425 |
Fox has never been shown to be close to Kirby, doubling Lloyd is not that impressive.
Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox
He's right up there with Kirby.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:17:00 AM #414 |
Link vs. Everyone isn't what we are looking for. People will just read that and vote Link. What most people actually mean is Link vs. Anyone. And we already pretty much saw that. Link would get tripled.
But we want Link to win. Seeing Link getting tripled is no fun.
If you want 2010 results look at 63% on Big Boss at night which is essentially what Mario has been getting on him since 2007. Snake and Samus got 67% on Fox and Sub-Zero.
I'll gladly take 67% on Fox over 63% on Big Boss. Fox is a tad under Kirby, so that lines up quite well with Snake at 53% on Mario.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:14:00 AM #413 |
Yes, however the different Links in the different games are reincarnations of each other, not quite the same person.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 8:06:00 AM #406 |
If you ignore the anamoly of Charizard Mario has never showed to be weaker than Snake/Samus.
Remember Cloud/Sephiroth didn't drop to Snake/Samus level until last contest.
So the 2010 matches are anomalies because they suggest change happened? Mario not being weaker than Samus/Snake in 2005-7 matters no more than Samus being far stronger in 2004.
Also, nobody needs to prove that Mario is weaker than Snake/Samus. That's not possible, especially given the lack of 1v1 24 hour matches we've had in recent years.* What we are looking for is what is most likely.
*This fact cuts against Mario too, because the most legitimate contest he's been in since 2005 is the one that best supports Samus/Snake being stronger than him. Are we supposed to give him the benefit of the doubt based on 4-way performances from 2007? Certainly not 2006 or 2008 because he didn't look good in 2008 and he was only in 2 BR matches in 2006.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:57:00 AM #401 |
Ok, if you really think so! I'm getting a better grasp of the lengths people are willing to go to ignore the obvious, simple, conclusion which is that Mario isn't quite that strong.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:53:00 AM #399 |
Which of the following do you take Charizard over?
Mega Man Crono Sonic Vincent Squall Tifa Auron
If you think Charizard is better than Missingno's performance on Sephiroth (and arguably the Crono performance too), your answer had better be all of them.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:49:00 AM #397 |
On another note, Link held up VERY well overnight. If he ends above 77% or even 78% here, that's quite an impressive performance and the most my faith in Cloud/Seph has been shaken all contest.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:36:00 AM #396 |
Dunno that Missingno would have done better in a day match. There are more votes in a day match so rallies matter less. And Missingno couldn't replicated the Power Hour in a day match because even though a day match gets much more votes overall, the first hour gets much less, and there isn't such a big surge for Nintendo/Pokemon/Jokes and against FFVII in it either.
Interestingly enough, Bowser/Charizard got 6000 more votes than Mario/Charizard. That suggests Charizard did not get bandwagoned between those matches, though perhaps he was already getting extra support in the Bowser match. Not conclusive either way, but Mario only being at 58% on Bowser as the Charizard matches is sort of strange as he's always been above that.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:30:00 AM #395 |
Key word is "more." Not much percentage in those movements either way.
53% on Mario for Snake sounds good to me, and so I'll take the Missingno/Charizard comparison. That would give Samus 52% on Mario.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:27:00 AM #392 |
Link would so beat Everyone.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/15/11 7:25:00 AM #391 |
Missingno vs Charizard, who would you pick?
Missingno. And if the strongest Missingno (what we saw against Seph) and the strongest Charizard (against Mario) are equal, Snake beats Mario with 53%.*
*Seph would have gone up in the remaining 12 hours more against a joke than Snake.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:56:00 PM #363 |
Mario Snake
Samus Sephiroth
Sounds good. EC and the Samus > Sephiroth people finally gets the match they've waited 7 years for.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:55:00 PM #362 |
Yes, change does happen and Samus>Mario indirectly in the future might happen again for all we know, as unlikely as it is given the site trends.
But what exactly makes you think the 2010 numbers suggest this? Mario got 58% on Mega Man. I see no reason to believe hyper-Charizard couldn't have matched his Mario performance on Samus. Mario looked no weaker in 2010 than in previous years, outside of being a couple points more susceptible to Link SFF. Which given how chaotic SFF has shown to be doesn't mean much.
At worst it's a nebulous area. But you can't say Samus looked indirectly stronger - you can say it looked very inconclusive, but no more.
Let's compare:
Mario got 63% on Big Boss, 58% on Megaman, 54% on Charizard, and 35% on Link. Samus got 67% on Sub-Zero, 64% on Zelda, and 47% on Cloud.
The worst performance here is the 54% on Charizard. We say Charizard was bandwagoned or whatever, but where's the evidence for that? It seems unlikely to me he was more than 5 points stronger than his level in the first 3 rounds, prior to HG/SS and a possible bandwagon. It's possible (unlikely IMO) that Charizard boosted more than that, but even so this match makes Mario look worse, because even his best case scenario provides no evidence that positively supports him being at Samus's level- the best case would just be lack of evidence against.
The best performance here is the 47% on Cloud. This is 2 points higher than Mario has ever obtained on Sephiroth, so 5-6 points higher than Mario has ever been worth on Cloud since 2003. FFVII has gotten a lot weaker since the last time Mario met Sephiroth of course. On the other hand, 2005-7 were banner years for Mario and Nintendo, and they've gotten weaker too.
Mario got 58% on Megaman- Samus got 61% on Megaman the last time they met. Granted, it was a 4-way. But Mario also clearly got SFF against Megaman, so this match really doesn't say much either way.
Now: Link. Mario being more susceptible to SFF from a substantially weaker Link, the weakest Link we have had since 2003, and possibly weaker than that Link, is alarming. If, as speculated, Mario has truly gone from 40% or lower on Link to 45%, he ought to improve. 10 points of SFF in Link/Mario is not believable to me when Link has never shown the ability to dish out anywhere near that much SFF against Mario before (Battle Royale excepted for obvious reasons).
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:31:00 PM #354 |
It's supposed to prove that Snake can look decisively stronger than an elite Nintendo character going in and then have his Smash strength sapped to lose 'badly'. If Samus can do it, why couldn't Mario?
Good thing I'm not talking about Mario/Snake directly! Don't have to worry about Brawl SFF if we're talking about indirect value. (and hey, Samus/Snake is another candidate for rSFF, though I don't find this one convincing at all)
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:28:00 PM #352 |
And this rSFF debate is really missing the point. You said it: change happens. Why is it so hard to believe that Samus could be stronger than Mario again now? That is what the 2010 numbers suggest, there's no need to hold onto an idea that Mario must be Samus's equal or better and twist the stats to try to hold onto that.
The main issue with that seems to be that people believe Mario would beat Samus directly still. But people believe Mario > Samus directly because he beat her badly last time with SFF. So either way, it's irrelevant.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:23:00 PM #350 |
Snake was expected to get like 56% on Vincent. Samus got 50.5% on Tifa. Snake was expected to get like 57% on Ganondorf. Samus got 55% on Zelda. Snake beats Samus easily, right?
What is that supposed to prove exactly? That strange matches happen? You may as well have just cited Kirby > L-Block > Link for a much stranger result. There are many more matches that are not strange than are strange, that's why we say they are strange.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:19:00 PM #348 |
Your match is off. 10 points doesn't need to be switched. If he was once at 47% on her, he just needs to boost to 53% and then SFF the rest.
And guess what, Mario got smashed 53% by Crono one year. Then he smashed Crono with almost 54% the next. He boosted. Plain and simple.
The level of that boost - almost 7 points based just off Crono - would account for most of a Mario/Samus shift. The rest is accounted for by SFF. It doesn't seem like a complicated situation.
This isn't really rocket science. Things change. These contests are very dynamic.
The Mario who beat Samus was far different than any Mario previously seen.
Samus was stronger than Crono, she was at 56% on Mario in 2004. So 7 points brings him to 51%. Then he needs 9 points of SFF to go the rest of the way. I have a very hard time believing that if he can get 9 points of SFF at 51%, he can't get any SFF at 49%.
And I'd argue that CT was weaker in 2005 on top of that, so Mario probably didn't quite gain 7 points.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:15:00 PM #347 |
No, she USED to have a history of looking stronger than Mario pre-2K5. In 2K5 everything changed and Mario has looked at least her equal ever since.
Until 2010, when Samus posted more impressive numbers again. And Mario has looked like Samus's equal indirectly since 2005, not her superior, and there's no reason Samus couldn't have gotten ahead of him again. That's what the 2010 numbers suggest.
There's definitely a difference. rSFF has zero - literally, zero - evidence for ever occurring. It is purely a "maybe this exists but we have nothing to back it" thing at this point. It has no place in any real discussion.
rSFF has 1 match backing it up. Mario/Samus. Not conclusively, but it argues more in favor it. Which may suggest it is very rare, but fortunately it is this exact pair of characters we are discussing. As far as data goes, we have data that tends to show: the bigger the strength gap, the more the SFF. So we would not expect a character that loses 65/35 to get rSFF on the other. Don't see the data that says there's any kind of hard dividing line at 50% though- that feels like a false dichotomy to me.
In any case, how Mario/Samus would go directly is not terribly relevant here. If Samus is stronger, and rSFF doesn't exist, then logically Samus would win now. But that wouldn't be so strange if you think that a small change in real strength can create or eradicate 10 points of SFF just like that.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 11:02:00 PM #341 |
Not sure what happened with Luigi, but if you just consider how much Link SFFed Sonic and apply that to Mario it brings him up in Samus's range. You really don't think that's plausible, red sox?
Link didn't even SFF Sonic that hard. It felt good after a string of disappointments, and for the novelty of seeing a Noble Niner held under 30%, but objectively wasn't that great. Cloud put 66% on a stronger Sonic before, after all......Link/Sonic SFF would not be sufficient to bridge the gap between Link's actual 64.5% score on Mario and the theoretical 55% being thrown around. It would land Mario in the low 40s, which sounds about right to me, and is already the highest he's ever been relative to Link.
The more important thing than Sonic though is past Link/Mario matches. Link has never hit Mario very hard with SFF before; why would he start now, in his weakest year ever relative to Mario?
Also, comparing Snake and Mario: Snake put 53% on Sephiroth. Mario put 53% on Charizard. That really should say it all I think.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:56:00 PM #340 |
What makes that advantage go away when she faces Mario if she's stronger indirectly.
That's the thing that's always bothered me about claiming rSFF in the first place. If you're stronger to begin with, why aren't you winning?
The overlapping fanbase favors Mario disproportionately. In this case, the Nintendo fanbase prefers Mario but will usually vote either of them over non-Nintendo characters. Samus gets more votes from outside the Ninty fanbase.
Do you think Mario wouldn't have won in 2004? I don't see how 10 points of SFF should suddenly disappear just because we cross a line from 50/50 to 49/51. I would perhaps say that under the theory that says rSFF can't exist, 10 points of SFF cannot exist in a 50/50 match either (or a 52/48 match for that matter). But Mario/Samus proves that large amounts of SFF can and do occur in essentially even matches.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:48:00 PM #336 |
She gets a better percentage against any non-Nintendo character.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:45:00 PM #334 |
rSFF, you mean?
I don't see any real difference in SFF mechanics if a character is at 50.1%, 50.0%, or 49.9%. If Mario can 60/40 Samus from a 50/50 match, he can SFF her when he's at 47% on her. I.e. Mario probably would have won in 2004 too, but it'd have been closer.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:41:00 PM #330 |
Mario, of course. SFF, same as last time. Well, in result anyway, it's probably closer this time.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:39:00 PM #328 |
Samus and Snake got the performances to prove it. Besides, Samus was already worth 40% on a stronger Link back in 2004. She has a history of being substantially stronger than Mario, Mario only has a history of being even with Samus (maybe slightly stronger at best).
But if you want to say Samus is weaker than 44% on Link, that's a whole lot better than claiming Mario is at 45% on Link.* Maybe it's the totally boring contest we have going here, but even thinking about that 45% claim makes me angry. It feels like a slap in the face more than anything else.
*Objectively, it's probably not any better. But it doesn't trigger feelings of anger or frustration.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:32:00 PM #323 |
The reason I see Mario at 45% as impossible is because Link got 64.5% on Mario directly. Link has consistently scored in the low-mid 60s on Mario for many years, with actual strength ranging from 60% to a few points higher than that. In 2010, Link put up the same performance he always does on Mario.
And we're supposed to believe that he fell to 55% on Mario, that's half the smallest gap that has ever existed between Link and Mario, and simultaneously made up the difference by increasing his SFF powers? Even though he couldn't really SFF Luigi much (compare with the demolition he put on Yoshi once)? We're supposed to believe he SFF'd Mario 3-4 times harder than he has done in the past?
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:23:00 PM #321 |
Except the standard isn't Cloud. It's Link. If the standard were Cloud, you'd have a valid point.
Are you saying that Cloud overperformed on Link? Because he didn't.
If you mean that Cloud anti-votes matter the least against Link, yes, that's true, but it's a minimal difference between an opponent that gets 53% or 47%. It's when you get to the 70s that the anti-votes start to make a big difference x-stats wise.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:19:00 PM #319 |
Some people should feel the pressure to go for a win in the semifinals.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 10:04:00 PM #314 |
So you're trying to say Mario wouldn't match said performance or come that close to it?
(Hint: Samus is probably overrated based on that Cloud match anyway)
He would not match it. Come close, that depends on what you mean by close. I'd go with 2-4% worse than Samus if making a guess. And there's no reason for Samus or Snake to have been overrated against Cloud- if they were overrated in those matches, they're going to be just as overrated in every match against Cloud/Seph in the future, which means they are not really overrated at all.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:58:00 PM #311 |
There isn't. Samus has years and years of results backing up her strength, and last contest, she put up her most impressive performance ever breaking 47% on Cloud.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:52:00 PM #308 |
Results >>> Personal expectations (what people call "common sense," except that it really isn't)
Samus wouldn't let Charizard break 46% on her!
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:50:00 PM #306 |
Samus was worth almost 44% on Link through as direct results as possible for a Nintendo character
Mario 'aint Samus.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:49:00 PM #305 |
Kratos must have a legitmate chance at 40% on Mario, because that is what direct extrapolation through Charizard says (and he's significantly north of 40% there so he has some cushion room). It's fine if you don't think so, but you can't seriously call that kind of result impossible.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:44:00 PM #300 |
Yes really, because Mario has just about 0 chance at being worth 45% on Link. ZERO.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:41:00 PM #296 |
"There's a good chance," huh.
Well, if you want to think Kratos is worth 40% on Mario, go right ahead.
A good chance means exactly what it says. HG/SS was a big reason why I took Charizard > Bowser on the crew. And his performance against Mario may have had some bandwagoning. But it wasn't some massive L-Block style event, and it was only possible because Charizard was already legitimately strong. As he proved against both Duke and L-Block.
Now, Kratos being worth 40% on Mario? A whole lot more likely than Mario being worth 45% on Link! If you set him that high in your stats, it's going to produce problems.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:34:00 PM #292 |
Wasn't Bowser v. Charizard the match where HGSS came out on the same day? I think that match is just wonky. Charizard is probably 50-50 with Bowser, maybe even below normally.
Certainly, there's a good chance Charizard was stronger for the Bowser and Mario matches. Doesn't mean he was suddenly vastly stronger, so that his previous matches are meaningless.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:31:00 PM #290 |
IIRC, the regional results are not updated every update.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:30:00 PM #287 |
Based on the way Link/Ganondorf is dropping we may see what Alucard had last contest, but this time we'll get to see the full day vote.
In years past, the full day vote power of Link against Alucard would have been scary, but with the ASV reduced to a shell of its former self this year, Link isn't going to be able to get that much percentage back.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:28:00 PM #282 |
*Shrugs* Characters change in strength, don't like arguing with direct results. In any case, Kratos doesn't need to be at Bowser's level to beat Alucard.
On another note, Link is coming down now- thinking he'll probably finish well under a tripling.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:20:00 PM #273 |
What is that other Charizard even worth?
We don't have any idea.
Whatever, you know, direct x-stats say, unless you've got a darn good reason to think otherwise. I am honestly seriously annoyed at people's willingness to write off good performances they didn't foresee as "bandwagons." People didn't believe in Charizard all contest, he won, and they just wrote it off as a bandwagon. Maybe he did get stronger, and HG/SS would be a good reason, but there's no reason to think he was radically different later in the contest from earlier in the contest. He performed like a champ against Duke too.
As for the rivalry aspect, it seems oddly analogous to me. A VG character (Alucard, Kratos) and a non-VG mythology character (Dracula, Zeus). Seems like we're treading in unknown land here, and there's no way to know how this match would turn out.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:14:00 PM #268 | |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:11:00 PM #262 |
No? Kratos put up close to the same percentage on Charizard as Bowser did. Even if it wasn't the same Charizard, that's pretty good.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:08:00 PM #255 |
But 78% is very impressive, good job. If you can hold it anyway. The night is long.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:08:00 PM #253 |
So...anyone wanting to take Kratos/Zeus over Alucard/Dracula? Huh?
...Yeah, I didn't think so.
I dunno, Kratos would beat Alucard pretty handily 1v1, no?
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 9:02:00 PM #238 |
So far, not too impressive, but Link's early vote has been awful since last year, so let's see what happens in 5 minutes.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Spread Betting RR - Link/Ganondorf (-50) vs. Alucard/Dracula |
red sox 777 12/14/11 8:36:00 PM #14 |
Half on Alucard/Dracula (+50)
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Topic | Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3 |
red sox 777 12/14/11 8:03:00 PM #253 |
This match is important because we finally get to see Link/Ganon in action against a non-fodder opponent in a non-SFF match. Will be great for gauging Cloud's chances for next round.
--
2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2
|
| Board List | |
|---|