Lurker > Chev427BB

With the way things are going in Russia right now any loss of Ukrainian territory in a negotiated peace might be temporary.

https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1862254358642995344

The Turkish militias fighting in Syria have joined the Rebel Alliance opposition forces in their offensive against the pro-Assad forces while simultaneously attacking the Kurds in the north, but we're supposed to handwave that now that they've joined the fight with Assad's forces.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1862205995436712309

The rebels have begun their attack on Aleppo. Also, Kurdish forces are building up in the north.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/28-november-21-major-sdf-reinforcements-are-arriving-at-manbij

I was wrong about them supporting the rebels, but the US did launch a pretty big missile attack on Syria in 2017 in retaliation for a chemical attack. It wasn't directly related to the rebel movements around Aleppo though.

Xenogears15 posted...

I hadn't considered that variable, but holy moly does it make sense when I think about it. Looks like Israel fucking around is going to ignite smoldering conflicts in the region.

Yeah, there's already a power vacuum in the region and it looks like everyone involved (at least in the Syrian civil war) is fighting again to get as much as they can out of it. The rebels (again likely with Turkish support) are fighting (and walking all over) the pro-Assad forces in the west and the Kurds and Turks are fighting in the north.

I don't see any of these groups marching on Damascus anytime soon so the regime is probably currently not under any threat of being toppled (unless these groups have sleeper cells in the south), but things are definitely heating up again so there will probably be lots of movement in northern Syria in the near future.

DodogamaRayBrst posted...

Is this an actual thing? I'm seeing zero on it on my national news site.

CNN is reporting on it

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/28/europe/syria-rebels-government-iran-analysis-intl/index.html

Also, the Turks are doing Turkish things and are targeting the Kurds in northern Syria, because of course they are. They can't handle the fact that there are Kurds right on their border.

The Kurds (or the more moderate groups in the coalition) are pretty much the only hope for a moderate, democratic Syria. If any of these extremist groups in the coalition take power nothing is going to change (at least for the better) in Syria, and they'll most likely have Turkish backing so it won't be good for the Kurds.

That must have something to do with it. It's been years since the last major offensive, and this is major

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/13d374de.jpg

Each of those flags is a settlement the rebels have secured in the last 24 hours

The rebels have taken Mansoura and are now just outside of Aleppo. This has been a complete rout of the pro-Assad forces west of the city and it doesn't appear to be slowing down.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1862165106869571843

Also, Visegrad24 is a far right news organization so I'm very careful about using them as a source, but their reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war has always been solid.

Yeah, it's literally anyone and everyone who hates the Assad regime and the Russians stationed there (and ISIS who still have a scattered presence in the south) from Kurds and moderates to the most extreme terror cells you can think of.

havean776 posted...

I'm not up to date what happened?

The ruble is in freefall

https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1862047280452206627

Apparently the frontline west of Aleppo has collapsed and organized defense of the line has ended. Another 12 settlements occupied by pro-Assad forces have been overrun by the rebels, who are allegedly being supported by Turkey.

Here's a simple infographic I found on twitter that helps you easily understand the Syrian Civil War and the factions involved:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/7/749750e7.jpg

They're not exactly good people from what I'm reading about them. They might actually be more authoritarian than the Assad regime, but as long as they don't somehow take over the government (which would be a tall order for a group that only holds power in the Idlib Governate, the province to the west of Aleppo) they can still be useful.

There's a chance that they could destabilize the situation enough where more moderate elements of the opposition forces start taking action as well to try to prevent extremists from seizing power.

https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1861805415593349217

The rebels are now apparently just 3 km, or a little under 2 miles from Aleppo and closing fast. Seems like they might actually be on a thunder run to the city.

This just started in the last few hours so I don't think anyone knows that yet. Right now I think their main aim is to get back into Aleppo, or at least get closer.

https://www.newarab.com/news/syrian-rebels-launch-shock-offensive-against-regime-northwest

In a shock offensive they call "Operation Deterring Aggression", opposition forces have overrun several positions of pro-Assad and Russian forces including a major regimental headquarters and are roughly 6 km from the outskirts of Aleppo.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/27-november-12-northern-syria-within-the-framework-of-the
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/27-november-15-colonel-hassan-abdulghaour-revolutionaries

This was reportedly a strike on a communications hub and bunkers below it.

Yeah, that's crazy. He probably just won't send aid anymore, which is still bad, but he's not going to put boots on the ground for Russia and North Korea. That would be political and economic suicide for him, he would almost certainly spark a wider war doing that and tank the US economy.

NatsuSama posted...

I mean, they have a clear starting point in the sense that powers or its ally were directly attacking other great powers or allies with said powers declaring war on each other as a result. Those wars didn't start out of a vacuum though. Some past history of skirmishes or violence or oppression or grievances was at play. Said starting point was just the final straw that made several powers to declare war on multiple great powers being pulled in.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was getting at with my last question, there were decades of tension leading up to both world wars but there are exact events in history that people point to (assassination of Franz Ferdinand and invasion of Poland) as the point of no return with both world wars and I wondered if that would also be the case in a WW3 scenario.

And to be clear I tend to agree with the consensus because the cost of a world war in the modern era would be much greater than any country would be willing to ignore, or at least I'd like to think that. I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that would be the beginning of the end of the world, especially since it would only take one person (or I guess technically 2 people as a failsafe) to push that red button and fast track that end.

I just think it's an interesting topic because when you look back at the world wars they both have a clear starting point though some people point to 1937 at the start of the second Sino-Japanese war and not the invasion of Poland as the true start of WW2, so there's some ambiguity there among those people so I wondered if that would also be the case in a WW3 scenario.

So it seems like the general consensus is that a third world war isnt likely, but if it were to happen do you think when people look back at it in the future there would be a single event to point to that was the clear starting point or would it be a series of broader regional events that become intermingled?

Do you think there will be a cooling of the current wars before it happens or do you think theyll have something to do with it?

With so many regional wars now taking place with many major superpowers either directly or indirectly involved in all of them do you think theres a chance these regional wars will eventually expand into WW3?

Some argue were already seeing the beginning stages of a third world war similar to late-30s Europe and Asia, what are the thoughts on that as well?

There's a lot of buzz on Twitter right now that Zelensky has announced Ukraine is at war with Russia (as if that wasn't already obvious), Iran and North Korea.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1846487742596747735

I'm trying to verify the information surrounding this because it appears to be mostly coming from the pro-Russia side with a lot (if not all) of the sources sensationalizing their headlines. The only exception so far appers to be NEXTA which through a very brief Google search seems to be a more trusted source, but their post also sounds sensationalized so I'm not sure

North Korea is now invading Ukraine with Russia's support

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-concerned-by-reports-north-korean-soldiers-fighting-russia-2024-10-15/

There are reports of North Korean soldiers now fighting as Russian army personnel on the front lines, this is a major escalation in the Ukraine war and essentially amounts to an invasion by North Korea (and I believe their first act of war outside the Korean peninsula if I'm not mistaken) even if they're doing so from within the ranks of Russia's military.

Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...

Well this topic didn't age well!

Like warm milk in the sun

The Rumble streamers are spiraling right now, it's a glorious sight to see

trappedunderice posted...

Yeah lol firemarshall bill and environmental guy

He made a cameo as fire marshal bill in Liar Liar.