Lurker > Master Moltar

Round 1 – 2013 vs. 2003

Moltar’s Analysis

I don’t know why, but 2011 vs 2006 makes me hesitate slightly here. 2003 should have this in the bag since 2013 doesn’t have a Skyrim like beast or huge pic advantage going for it. 2003 isn’t all that strong though, mainly just KotOR and Wind Waker there. That’s really all it needs to beat 2013 though.

Not expecting a blowout, but 2003 should take this by a comfortable margin. I feel like The Last of Us has enough casual clout here to make 2013 look semi-respectable.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2003

Moltar’s Prediction: 2003 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

I'm short on time today so I'll be brief. 03 isn't a very good year. It's like the 1993 of the PS2 era. It does have a Zelda, though, and I guess KOTOR means something. The others feel kinda like filler. FFX-2 is technically notable but I don't think there's a lot of good will with that game anymore.

13's got decent games - Last of Us is solid and is a damn notable game of the ever contender - but there's a real lack of powerhouse games. 03 might struggle next round but it's hard to see 2013 doing too much.

transience's prediction: 2003 with 71.15%



Leonhart’s Analysis

The end of round 1 and the halfway point of this contest is already upon us, and I’m totally okay with it! Maybe we’ll start having more competitive matches, and if not, at least it’ll be over before too much longer! Anyway, in terms of this match, 2003 is a weird one. It’s got a Zelda, a Pokemon, and a Final Fantasy game in its corner. You would normally think that would make you a top tier year, but when it’s Wind Waker (which is mostly liked these days but still has its detractors), R/S/E (which might be the least popular mainline game), and Final Fantasy X-2 (which is a pretty divisive entry), who knows!

I do think the brand name value of those three is probably enough to defeat 2013, which is basically The Last of Us and a bunch of other middling stuff. Link Between Worlds is getting no representation at all, either in the match pic or in the notable games list. We saw KH2 being omitted from 2006 possibly cost it the match, and I think 2013 was already weaker than 2003 even had it been included. The Last of Us is a “Game of the generation” type of game, but we’ve already seen that one solid anchor isn’t enough to carry a year unless you’re Chrono Trigger.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2003

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2003 with 63.75%
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Round 1

1998 - 89.60%
1992 - 74.30%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

Every time I see the Dark Souls 3 box art, I think it's an armor-clad dude stoically standing there giving the thumbs up. I'm always disappointed to find out that's not the case.

Anyway, the vast majority of 1992's strength is on the back of Link to the Past, but that's certainly enough to win round 1. Mario Kart is decent backup, and 2016 probably ain't all that hot - although to be fair, every game from 2016 is untested. It's possible that FF15 and Sun/Moon are actually powerhouses, and not just two games from well known franchises that happened to skate through the GotY polls. It's also possible that Half-Life 3 gets announced tomorrow.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1992 with 69%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

So this is a match that pre-contest starting I thought could be interesting. 2016 games are a new entity since the last contest was in 2015, and leading the 2016 pack is the massive wave known as Overwatch. I struggled on picking this one, because while the obvious answer is 1992 I thought 2016 might get a boost from Overwatch hype. Also has a Pokemon game that was received by the fanbase loads better than X and Y, plus the force known as Final Fantasy XV that turned out to NOT be a total disappointment after 10 years of hype. Decent year, right? 1992 (best year ever holla at '92 babies) of course does have a Legend of Zelda game. And not only that, but probably the most beloved 2D Zelda game and one of the highest regarded in the series: A Link to the Past. This game kicked some ass last contest, beating out Majora's Mask and holding Ocarina of Time to under 60%! So that alone gives 1992 a decent advantage. Sonic 2 is also favorably regarded by fans of the Sonic series, didn't really show its strength in 2015 but it did get to round 3 regardless. Other games include Super Mario Kart, Wolfenstein 3D, Mortal Kombat, and Kirby's Dream Land which I don't think have much in the way of contest history but feel like are regarded well. But yet I still thought "Hey, I need some risky picks. Let's take a bet on 2016 and some Overwatch shenanigans!"



Yea fuck that logic of thinking fuck my bracket RIP


1992 wins with 73.83%



Crew Consensus: 1992 beats last year
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 1992 vs. 2016

Moltar’s Analysis

1992 is up there with 91 and 94 in that good ol’ SNES era goody goodness time. LttP, SMK, Sonic 2 good stuff. 2016 is just 1) too new to have what can be considered as classics and 2) not really loaded with depth or strength to begin with.

2017 could be a real beast down the line with a line-up of BotW, Mario, Persona 5, etc., but it’s too soon because those games just don’t have that high playrate yet. 2016 doesn’t have that line-up or the playrate, so 1992, a year filled with very popular classics, shouldn’t have any problem here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1992

Moltar’s Prediction: 1992 - 72%



transience’s Analysis

Link to the Past seems to always gets these whatever paths. The last go-round, it got the Super Metroid/Majora's Mask winner and then ran into Ocarina. This year, it gets to blow up 2016 and then run into 1998.

1992 would have been an interesting entrant. It's not super deep but LTTP and SMK are a nice one-two, kind of similar to the Mario 3/FF1 of 1990. Wolf3d and Kirby are definitely in the Wing Commander/River City Ransom slot.

2016 is really relying on a rally of some sort. Its best game basically lost to a Pokemon game released after 2000. The game to watch here might be Overwatch: it hasn't grown in popularity but that's the biggest community going that might have an impact on these contests. Do I expect anything? Absolutely not, but if I was to expect one thing, it would probably be that. Well, that or Undertale because of how poorly we collectively handled 2015. More on that tomorrow.

transience's prediction: 1992 with 78.99%



Leonhart’s Analysis

It’s sad 1992 is getting fed to 1998 round two because it has the potential to be one of the most beastly years in this thing. It’s got depth, variety, and a top tier anchor in LTTP. It should destroy 2016…unless a rally materializes. There’s not much to say about that aspect of it. If 2016 gets a decent-sized rally, it’ll win easily because our vote totals are so pathetic that you don’t even need much to overthrow our 15,000 votes. Will it happen? I have no idea. I’m leaning “No,” because it seems hard to get people to rally around a more nebulous concept like years rather than one specific game. I’m going to predict this match with that assumption in mind, and if I’m wildly wrong, oh well.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2016

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1992 with 82.10%
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Pick a match

Do the write-up

Send to [email protected]

1995 vs. 1987 -
2001 vs. 2008 -

1997 vs. 2007 -
2000 vs. 1996 -

1991 vs. 2002 -
1994 vs. 2011 -
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 1998 vs. 1993

Moltar’s Analysis

well today certainly was a day

This match should be a return to normalcy. You know, obvious result, huge blowout, etc. That’s because the heavy favorite to win the entire contest is 1998. You know, the OoT/RBY/MGS year. It’s up against a year that’s got nothing in 1993. If this isn’t blowout of the contest, that’ll be a disappointment.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1998

Moltar’s Prediction: 1998 - 90%



transience’s Analysis

We're back to peace and quiet after a day of upheaval. Damn you, 2006 picture! I hate that I'm blaming you and not the year because the year probably would have lost anyway! Anyway. 1998 is a monster. I don't think people know just how big 1998 is. I'm looking forward to the final rounds where 98 puts a doubling on the next best contender.

1993 is a weirdly vacant year for video game releases, at least on the console side. 91 is Mario World, 92 is LTTP, 94 is Super Metroid and FF6.. 93's biggest Nintendo game is Star Fox and probably Secret of Mana on the Square side.The real game of the year is Doom, a game that deserves props no matter what website we are on. Unfortunately it's up against the god year.

Strengthwise, I think this is a 90/10 or worse. But, I kind of feel like everyone knows how gigantic a favorite 1998 is and some pity votes will be thrown. Given how small our sample size is, just a few votes can swing several percentage points. I'll be.. conservative? As conservative as you can be with a septupling.

transience's prediction: 1998 with 87.87%



Leonhart’s Analysis

We’ve seen the rest (almost), and now it’s time for the best. 1998 got a great opponent to flex its muscles against, too. Doom and Myst are both very respected, but this site has never really embraced those kinds of games. The other two games in the match pic are Star Fox and Shining Force, so…yeah. This is gonna get ugly. If we’re going to see a 90%+ performance this contest, this is the last best shot at it.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1998

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1998 with 91.05%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Wow, talk about pic screwed. 1993 was the odds-on favorite to win the whole contest, but with the omission of Secret of Mana from the picture it doesn't stand a chance. This should have been an easy win for '93 but I guess 1998 got lucky - or Allen has some vendetta here. Unbelievable. Enjoy your stolen victory.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1998 with 89%



Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

We finally get to see the overall favorite in action! 1998 is the only year boasting two top 10 (they are top 5 and may be the top 2!) games on this site in Ocarina of Time and Pokemon RBY. It did get Panzer Dragoon Saga in its match pic instead of Half-Life or Starcraft or FFT, but it got its big 2 and that's all it really needs to put up a massive number against one of the worst years from the 90s. No Link's Awakening in 1993's match pic either, but that shouldn't really matter. Nothing much to say about this one. It could be the biggest blowout so far (and that's saying something).

1998 with 91%



Crew Consensus: 98 ez
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Round 1

1994 - 70.30%
2006 - 58.70%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 1

2004 - 71.50%
2006 - 58.70%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

Hoo boy. If there was ever a 'pic matters' match this contest, this is it. 2011 has Skyrim - probably the strongest game on the site released in the past 10 years. It's got Dark Souls, its got Batman, its got Portal 2. There's a lot of good stuff here, but under normal circumstances this should be an easy win for 2006. 2011 is up against a Zelda game, a Final Fantasy game, a Kingdom Hearts game - 2006 has all the heavy hitters (and it's also closer to 1998).

HOWEVER. Two of those are conspicuously missing from the match picture. The headliners are Okami and Oblivion. Zelda is the LAST picture in the rotation. It's definitely not a favorable look for 2006. Now, I'm writing this before I've seen the picture for 2011, so that could be equally bad, I suppose.

This is a tough one, but I think I'm going to stick with my bracket and trust in voters to know what else came out and/or click on that stupid question mark to find out. I do think this will probably be our first "close" match of the contest, one way or another.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2006 with 55%



Guest’s Analysis - DpOblivion

Well, expectedly, this contest has been a snooze fest so far. There could be some slightly interesting matches coming up, though. Then again, maybe not. Either way, 2011 and 2006. Both are, once again, years. And some games and even platforms came out in those years. One of these years, 2006, we’ve even seen already when it beat 1981, another year, in the Wildcard round.

The first thought would be that a wildcard year probably shouldn’t beat a year that went straight into the round of 32. And 2011 has some solid releases with the highly loved Portal 2 and Batman: Arkham City, neither of which are in the match pic. But that’s okay, because the match pics don’t work on my browser anyway. There is, however, a Legend of Zelda game. There’s also Skyrim and Gears of War 3. And apparently a Mortal Kombat game came out that year, which I’m not sure is that noteworthy.

On the other hand, we have 2006. That also has a Legend of Zelda game. And an Elder Scrolls game, and the original Gears of War. In the area of non-overlap, there’s Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, and Okami. Significantly though, this year also saw the release of the Playstation 3 and Nintendo Wii.

Now, whether or not consoles are going to have much bearing on these matches, I still don’t really know. I don’t think consoles on their own are going to win, but in a match that features two solid lists of games, I think it should definitely help tip the scales. It ended up being the Guru favorite so it’s not really an “upset,” but this wildcard year of 2006 should move on to the round of 16, and perhaps even beyond.

Dp’s bracket says: 2006

Dp’s prediction is: 2006 wins 68%-32%



Crew Consensus: 2006 first year to win twice
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Round 1 – 2011 vs. 2006

Moltar’s Analysis

Have faith everyone, this could be our closest match yet! These are two solid years that don’t have any killers in them and are close to evenly matched when you break it down. Both years have a Zelda game and Elder Scrolls game, with 2006 having the stronger Twilight Princess, but 2011 having the stronger Skyrim. 2006 has some solid back-up too with Okami, KH2 and FF12, but 2011 is no slouch either with Portal 2, Arkham Asylum, and Dark Souls.

2006 looks to be the safe pick here, especially knowing how the site leans more towards Japanese games over western games, and that the site also skews more towards older games than newer. There has also been no sign of a significant shift towards more recent and western games that I’ve seen this contest. If anything, the voters seem smarter (and lower) than ever, so I doubt even the picture advantage that 2011 has will matter here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2006

Moltar’s Prediction: 2006 - 60%



transience’s Analysis

UGH. I hate this match! 2006 should win - it's got the stronger games, probably, but it's missing Square representation in the last year Square really mattered. The TP/KH2/Oblivion trio was supposed to make 06 one of the best post-01 years - it's basically a better version of 2002 and that year is whipping 2010 as I write this.

2011 is a good year by modern standards. Skyrim is the current GOTD until Breath of the Wild gets a big enough player base to dethrone it. It's got Dark Souls and Skyward Sword backing it up. Skyward Sword is pathetic compared to Twilight Princess but Oblivion is in a similar spot.

Let's say, theoretically, that Skyrim and Skyward Sword cancel out TP and Oblivion. It seems rational. That leaves us with Gears of War/Okami vs., let's say Dark Souls and Portal 2. That's a scary thought. If it were KH2 then no problem, but Gears of War isn't gonna carry too many votes.

That's the worst case scenario. I obviously haven't seen the picture yet here but I get the feeling that 2011 will be gimped in some way. I have a feeling Skyward Sword will skip the match because really, who cares about Skyward Sword? If that happens, 2006 carries it. If it doesn't happen.. I think 2006 can carry it anyway. But it'll be our closest match.

transience's prediction: 2006 with 56.55%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This match has suddenly become debatable, thanks to the match pics. 2006 gets the same pic it had in the wild card round, where TP is last and KHII isn’t there at all. 2011 gets a great pic, with Zelda leading off, even if it’s Skyward Sword, and it’s got great representation with Skyrim, Dark Souls, and Mortal Kombat. I picked 2006 before the contest, but I wasn’t completely sold on it. I always felt like 2011 had a good shot at it, and that feeling only grows stronger the closer this match gets.

However, we’ve talked about how the vote totals have gone down, but the ones who are still here are pretty smart and “get” how the contests work. This situation sort of reminds me of 2001/2014’s match pic, where 2014 had Smash 4 in the lead spot up against Halo 1 in 2001. Some people worried that 2014 might overperform, but if it did, you’d never know it! No KH2 in the match pic at all is much more worrisome to me than TP being last because at least it’s there. I don’t know how many people are looking at that little ? thing to see what else came out in a given year. I’m going to stick with 2006 because I still think its potential ceiling is higher, but I don’t have much confidence in it and we might actually be in store for a close match!

Leonhart’s Vote: 2006

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2006 with 57.11%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Kleenex’s Analysis

2004 reminds me a lot of 2010 - a lot of highly respected games that should be strong on paper (the very same paper from yesterday, in fact!), but on GameFAQs that's not the case. World of Warcraft, San Andreas, Halo 2 - these are not the games that make waves in our contests. Metal Gear Solid 3 is the one exception here, though you can probably count Tales of Symphonia to a lesser extent as well. Given the troubles MGS had last time around, that's not enough to stand up to something like 1994. As long as 1994 doesn't get pic screwed (more on that in the next writeup!), I expect this to go similar to the 2002/2010 match from yesterday.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1994 with 68%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

So this was, in my mind, the toughest match of Round 1. I had 2004 up until just minutes before the lockdown, when I realized how ridiculous that was, and am in fact kind of regretting 1991 > 1994 in Round 3, because 1994 is just too deep and as we saw in 1985 vs. 1987, that matters. That said, 2004 deserves better than a Round 1 rolling; it could be a contender for the Elite Eight elsewhere in the bracket. Like, I don't know, up at the top?

Yeah, I said it: 2004 would crush 1995. Crush it. Look at how stacked 2004 is! I can't stop looking at it; the more I look, the more I'm convinced that I might've been making a mistake sending 1991 to the semis even if I hadn't switched to 1994 being its Elite Eight opponent. I still think 1991 would beat 2004, but it'd be close. But it's up against 1994, not 1995, so...

1994 with 60% of the vote



Crew Consensus: 199 4 the win
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 1994 vs. 2004

Moltar’s Analysis

FF6 vs MGS3

Super Metroid vs San Andreas

MMX vs. Half-Life

S&K vs ToS

1994 is a strong year with a lot of depth, but 2004 is no slouch either. On GameFAQs, 1994 looks good in all those matches, but none of them would be blowouts.

A blowout here would make 1994 look really impressive going into its inevitable match with 1991 later, but 2004 has a lot more bite than 1988. Mid or high 70s would look crazy against a solid year like 2004, but I’m hesitant to say this is under a doubling with all the blowouts we’ve already had.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1994

Moltar’s Prediction: 1994 - 71%



transience’s Analysis

This is probably our first matchup between two legit years! 1994 is the sweet spot of the SNES with a fantastic one-two of Super Metroid and Final Fantasy VI and some okay depth behind it in Donkey Kong Country, Mega Man X and Sonic 3. Chances are that we get a little more, um, diverse than that and end up getting a PC game like Doom 2 or an arcade fighter like Tekken. Best case scenario though has 1994 with two killers and two great action platformers. 1994 could make a case for being a top 5 year.

2004 is also a monster. Take this poll outside of GameFAQs and 04 probably is a big favourite. Half-Life 2, Halo 2, San Andreas, Metal Gear Solid 3, Prime 2, World of Warcraft, etc. Unfortunately, most of those games have fallen from grace a little bit and the others are kinda weak from a GameFAQs perspective. 2004 is notable as being the first year where western games really dominated and this site isn't so crazy about them there guns.

What's the best case scenario for 2004? Probably MGS3/Half-Life 2/San Andreas/Tales of Symphonia. World of Warcraft could theoretically pull in a rally but that's never happened in the ten years that we've teased it out and WOW is as small-time as ever. Let's match up the top games of the year:

FF6 vs. MGS3 - edge Super Metroid. if Mario RPG can beat MGS3, FF6 can do it worse.

Super Metroid vs. Half-Life 2 - edge Super Metroid. Metroid Prime beat HL2 58/42 last contest after losing narrowly in 2009. HL2 gets bonus points for historical impact but Super Metroid literally has a genre named after it.

Mega Man X vs. San Andreas - edge MMX, MMX got 45% on FFX. San Andreas got 45% on Chrono Cross.

Sonic 3 vs. Tales of Symphonia - tough one. Sonic did well against Uncharted while Tales put up a decent fight with Paper Mario. I'll go Sonic but could go either way.

So yeah, unless 1994 gets gimped by a bad game lineup or 2004 gets a historical edge (which it deserves), I'll go with 1994.

transience's prediction: 1994 with 64.32%




Leonhart’s Analysis

Man, I really wish 2004 had a chance, or that it had been put somewhere else in the bracket. It’s got a bunch of games I love a lot, especially MGS3, which has been my #3 favorite game for years now. It’s probably 2004’s strongest representative at this point, too. It’s just a step below elite level, which doesn’t help considering 1994 has two elite level games in Super Metroid and Final Fantasy VI. I’m good with 1994 winning, too, because it’s got a great lineup and props to Allen for finally giving Sonic & Knuckles some love! I think 2004 will hold up decently well (at least as far as this contest is concerned) and might make some people second-guess their 1994 > 1991 pic, but it’s still gonna get rocked, sadly.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2004

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1994 with 73.66%
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Round 1

1991 - 86.10%
2002 - 74.70%
2004 - 68.50%
2006 - 67.30%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

This is a tough one. On paper, 2010 looks great. Galaxy 2, RDR, Mass Effect 2, God of War 3. These are some goddamn video games. But, they aren't necessarily video games that this website tends to take a liking too. And even Galaxy 2 couldn't beat the original Mass Effect last time around. There weren't even any God of War games in the last contest!

2002 doesn't exactly inspire confidence either, but at least Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts have some results behind them (although KH1's loss to FF9 last contest is worrisome). I don't really think the likes of Morrowind, GTA3 and Warcraft 3 add a whole lot to the equation. Also hey, Mario Sunshine came out this year too. It's not even listed on the blub! I wonder if that's to protect 2002 from its negative influence.

At the end of the day, I think I'm going to trust the year that has at least one game we know is worthwhile, and that's 2002. This is one of the few matches this round I could see going either way, however, so I won't be shocked if 2010 manages to win the honor of getting crushed by 1991 next round.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2002 with 56%



Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz

Yet another blowout. If this match was on any other site, I have a feeling it would be at least debatable; 2010 was a great year for gaming, with Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Starcraft II, etc.

2002 has some decent depth but doesn’t have a really strong “anchor” game. Thankfully for it, 2010 doesn’t have a strong anchor either, so 2002 should easily be able to break 70 here.

2002 – 76%



Crew Consensus: 2002 ftw
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Round 1 – 2002 vs. 2010

Moltar’s Analysis

2002 doesn’t have any killers, but it does have a bunch of proven midcarders on GameFAQs with Metroid Prime, Kingdom Hearts, and Vice City. That’s more than I can say about 2010 on this site. Galaxy 2 definitely isn’t as strong as the original here, and ME2 hasn’t impressed either. In fact, all the big 2010 games here looked bad in the last contest.

The gap here doesn’t seem as big as some of the other strength discrepancies we’ve seen in super deep vs. nothing years, but I don’t see 2002 struggling here at all despite being a middle of the road year. Might as well adjust the percentage too since blowouts are the name of the game here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2002

Moltar’s Prediction: 2002 - 75%



transience’s Analysis

I'm really fascinated (well, by this contest's standards) by 02's trajectory. 1991 is still a little old in the tooth and is really relying on nostalgia over pure game strength. It's like a superpowered 1987. 02, on the other hand, has legitimate games beyond Mario World. it's got Metroid Prime, and Metroid seemed to be overall stronger last contest. Kingdom Hearts is always legit, stronger than FF4. Vice City's okay. It's almost too bad that 02 got its best picture -- though I'd argue Morrowind is better than Warcraft 3 -- this early on in the contest. All those games look so good.

2010 has Mass Effect 2, RDR and Galaxy 2 which sounds fine on paper but all of those games bombed in the last game contest. 2002 probably goes big here.

transience's prediction: 2002 with 80.01%



Leonhart’s Analysis

2002 is an interesting year. It’s got a couple of strong upper midcarders in Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts, but I think they’re just shy of being in “elite” territory because they’ve fallen short in a couple of notable matches. Metroid Prime narrowly lost to Fallout 3 in GOTD and Skyrim in 2015. It’s an odd look for a Nintendo game to lose two close matches to western games, even if they’re probably the two strongest ones we have. Usually, Nintendo finds a way to “clutch” those wins out, one way or the other.

Kingdom Hearts faltered against its superior sequel (yeah I said it, come at me) in GOTD and squandered an opportunity to beat a mainline FF in 2015. It almost always looks good in defeat, but it can never quite break through. It’s also got Vice City, Warcraft III, and Morrowind on its side, which are fine games, but they’re low midcarders through and through. 2002 is one of those years that would be fun to predict elsewhere, but I don’t see how it beats 1991 next round. It’s just not good enough. It’s really going to put that “year closest to 1998” theory to the test!

Beating 2010 is easy enough though. The biggest games from 2010 flopped in 2015, or at the very least, they squandered opportunities to prove their worth. Mass Effect 2 got pummeled by MGS3 the round after it nearly lost to BioShock, which is still the weirdest back-to-back performance from that contest. Mario Galaxy 2 lost to the original Mass Effect, and Red Dead Redemption got rolled by Shadow of the Colossus. This might not be a super blowout like we’ve become accustomed to seeing (or it might! Who knows! This contest is weird), but it won’t be close.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2010

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2002 with 68.25%
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Round 1 – 1991 vs. 1988

Moltar’s Analysis

A week in and I’ve already run out of things to say about matches like this. 1991 is a strong year with Mario World, Sonic, FF4, SF2, and more. It’s up against a year that’s got nothing except for weak games in very popular franchsies (Zelda 2, Mario 2, etc.) We’ve frequently seen what happens in these cases, and that means that 1991 is going to win big here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1991

Moltar’s Prediction: 1991 - 86%



transience’s Analysis

Okay, Zelda, prove it to me. Prove to me that Breath of the Wild boosted Zelda across the board. Show that you can get 20% on 1991 which has Mario and Sonic and Street Fighter.

1988 is a weak year made worse by Mario 2 somehow missing the match picture. It wouldn't have mattered, of course, because hey Mario World. But I like to see years get represented the best they can and this one isn't. 1991 should go big -- BIG -- and get 1994 people scared. But I think this is more SFF than anything else. 1991 just dwarfs these early Nintendo years.

transience's prediction: 1991 with 90.91%



Leonhart’s Analysis

All right, my Guru bracket is dead, but I still have high hopes for 1991. I think it’s got depth and variety, as well as the potential Mario/Sonic nostalgia bomb waiting in round three against 1994, which I’m sure will come into play if we have user made pics by that point. You’ve got a classic in Mario World, certainly in contention as the strongest Mario game and perhaps a borderline top ten game overall. You’ve got a classic Sonic game for those on the other side of the aisle. You’ve got Street Fighter II, which is THE fighting game to many people and is practically universal. Final Fantasy IV might as well be universal with how many platforms it’s been ported to at this point, and it’s the game that began the series’ transformation into what it is today.

I say all that to preface the fact that 1988 is about to get obliterated here. It’s got the black sheep of the 2-D family for many of the biggest franchises, like Zelda II, Mario 2, and the original Metal Gear. If “generational SFF” is a thing, I imagine it will come into play because 1988 is just outclassed on every front here.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1991

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1991 with 90.25%



Kleenex’s Analysis

1988 sucks. Nobody actually likes Zelda 2. Nobody actually like the original Metal Gear. 1988 has no games. It's a barren wasteland of NES trash.

1991, on the other hand, has Super Goddamn Mario World. It has Final Fantasy IV. It has Street Fighter 2. There's even a Sonic game for the people who are into that kind of thing. This match is going to be (another) blowout. This entire division is just going to be a dickwaving contest for the first two rounds until the '91/'94 division final.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1991 with 84%



Guest’s Analysis - BT



Crew Consensus: A perfect victory for 1991
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 10
Guest: 10
Kleenex: 10
transience: 9
Leonhart: 9

Crew Accuracy Challenge: tran gets the point for 95, 07, and 08, Kleenex gets the point for 87 and 01, Leon gets the point for 97.

Kleenex: 4
transience: 3
Moltar: 1
Guest: 1 (Dp)
Leonhart: 1
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Round 1

2000 - 64.70%
1996 - 78.30%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 1996 vs. 1989

Moltar’s Analysis

Think waaaaaaaaay back to that 2008/2009 match. Remember when 2009 looked good in the wildcard round only to get crushed when it faced actual competition in the bracket?

Yeah that same thing is going to happen here. 1996 is even stronger too with Mario 64 and RPG leading it, so this should be even uglier.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1996

Moltar’s Prediction: 1996 - 79%



transience’s Analysis

I'm excited about this match! I feel like it will tell us a lot. I honestly feel like 1996 is a weak year. It has Mario 64 and Mario RPG and... well, games that are notable but not strong. Resident Evil, Tomb Raider, Crash, all the PS1 stuff that got iterated on and became much better over time. Those games suck in contests outside of the original RE and I think that's helped out by its remake. 1996 lacks diversity and lacks depth. I would take the 90/00 winner over it without much thought.

1989 has depth and has notable games. But it somehow forgot to include freaking Mega Man 2! Tetris, Dragon Warrior and Mega Man 2 is pretty similar to Zelda/Metroid/Castlevania, just without the big bullet on top. 1989 wouldn't win, mind you, but I think it could make things interesting if 1996 is a one-bullet year like I think it might be. Yeah, 96 has an RPG and a platformer on two different systems, but come on - that's Mario.

Hopefully 1989 can hang tight. Shame about the picture.

transience's prediction: 1996 with 71.65%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I wrote a lot in the previous writeup, so I’ll make this short. Plus, there isn’t much to say anyway! 1989 had a nice win in the vote-ins, and there are some questions about 1996’s potential since its top two anchors are both Mario games and Allen is basically ignoring console releases, so it can’t take advantage of being the N64’s launch year either. However, 1989’s anchor is Tetris, which has proven that it will fold in the face of classic games, and 1996 has a classic game in Mario 64. 1996 might have problems next round, but it should win pretty easily here.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1996

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1996 with 75.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Poor 1989, we hardly knew ye. I had 1996 pegged as pretty darn strong when I made my bracket. Upon closer inspection, I'm less sure about that. Mario 64 and surprise BGE3 semifinalist SMRPG are no slouches, and they are backed up by Resident Evil which is...uh...there. That's all great, but I was also anticipating the consoles having some effect on the outcome which, again, doesn't appear to be the case at the time I'm writing this. Given that, I'm expecting '96 to get gobbled up by 2000 next round, but not before it can lay a savage beatdown on 1989 sans Mega Man 2 picture.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1996 with 78%



Guest’s Analysis - spooky

1989 is stronger than a good chunk of pre-1990s years, as it has Tetris and Mega Man 2 to go along with it. However on the other side you have a year like 1996, which has Super Mario 64 (a game which can only be beaten by a handful of games) and Super Mario RPG (That one game which has everything that GameFAQs loves: Nintendo, Square, SNES, RPG, Mario, and 90s). This match just isn't a threat for 1996, this match's only relevance is how it performs on 1989, because 1990/2000 and 1997 aren't gonna give 1996 an easy time. It would be moral victory for 1989 if it manages to get 35% on 1996. And that's really all I can think of this match.

spooky's prediction: 1996 with 70%



Crew Consensus: Reverse 69 wins
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All that being said, I’m a stubborn person by nature, so I’m going to stick with my 1990 pick. The Crew can thank me later for averting a Crew Curse…! I do think Majora’s Mask and FFIX are a little overvalued. Those SM/LTTP results still feel weird to me, and OoT wasn’t its normal self in 2015, so I don’t totally trust FFIX’s number on it either. Regardless, 2000 has a massive depth advantage and a good picture to demonstrate that, so I expect it wins pretty big if it does. Just gotta hope Mario 3’s got a P-Wing it’s been saving for just this moment!

Leonhart’s Vote: 1990

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1990 with 53.44%



Kleenex’s Analysis

1990 got screwed. Zelda, Pokemon, Final Fantasy, PS2, Chrono Cross. 2000 has it all! The Mario 3 + Final Fantasy combo is definitely no slouch, but I have a hard time seeing that win against 2000. 1990 probably could have done some work in other parts of the bracket, but 2000 is probably one of the top 5 strongest years in the contest (one that I have losing next round because I'm an idiot).

Kleenex's Prediction: 2000 with 70%



Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

2000 has Game of the Decade winner Majora's Mask, Pokemon Gold/Silver, and Final Fantasy IX as its three strongest games. It also has Chrono Cross, Deus Ex, Diablo II, and Perfect Dark. If you want to argue consoles matter, it has one of the best in the Playstation 2. It's an interesting year. Pre-contest I could see it losing in the first round or going all the way to the finals. With its depth and its strong top 3, it's a fun upset pick to go deep. In fact, in the 2015 adjusted x-stats: http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2015g, it has the highest ranked #3 of any year (FF9, 23rd).

1990 has a large anchor in Mario 3 and an okay 2nd in the original Final Fantasy. Other than those, it has nothing with any strength, although on a personal level, Dr. Mario, Mega Man 3, and Castlevania 3 are games I enjoy. Other games are River City Ransom, The Secret of Monkey Island, and Wing Commander.

Mario 3 should be the strongest game in either year, though Majora's Mask may be close, especially with Breath of the Wild hype. Slight edge to 1990 there. After that, the edge clearly lies with 2000. As we saw in the 1985/1987 match, having the strongest game in the match isn't enough if you don't have depth. Actually this match is pretty similar to that one when you think about it.

I was all set to go big here but then Allen left Pokemon Gold/Silver out of the match picture. I think that will hurt 2000 by a few percentage points, but it should still have enough to win.

tennisboy213's bracket: 2000
tennisboy213's vote: 1990
tennisboy213's prediction: 2000 with 59%



Crew Consensus: Y2K
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 2000 vs. 1990

Moltar’s Analysis

This...this can’t be another blowout right? On paper, this isn’t like most of the other matches so far, where it’s either been a super deep year against a weak year, or a strong anchor year against a weak year.

Here, we’ve got two years with some strength and some depth. With this falling in the middle, we may actually get a good match. 2000 is led by GameFAQs Game of the Decade Majora’s Mask. It also has backup of other strong Nintendo games, notable PC games, and even a Final Fantasy. There’s definitely depth here.

1990 is led by SMB3, which is one of the strongest games on GameFAQs. It also has the original Final Fnatasy backing it up and other classics like River City Ransom and Monkey Island and…

…

oh who am I kidding 2000 just has more depth this probably won’t even be close

Moltar’s Bracket: 2000

Moltar’s Prediction: 2000 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

Here's a hyped match! It's actually two years that have some strength to it, as opposed to 87 and 85 which are only competitive because they're both facing each other. Well, we'll see if that's true next round with 95. Gaming years have a tendency to rely on historical significance more than pure game quality. I'm curious to see if that's the case with this contest too.

When looked through that lens, 1990 looks a lot better. 2000 is a notable year for hardware, but the big software titles are just sequels. Final Fantasy IX is a throwback to earlier games in the series. Majora's Mask is notorious for being an Ocarina rom hack. Pokemon Gold/Silver is a better (?) version of Red/Blue. Perfect Dark, the same. The truly notable games of 2000 - Diablo 2, Deus Ex, either aren't in the match picture or are seen as net negatives.

Meanwhile, 1990 has Super Mario Bros. 3, still considered to be the purest platformer ever made. It has the birth of Final Fantasy. Those two alone have some serious cred. Is it enough? Probably not. The other games in the picture are weak and, for some reason, Allen skipped Mega Man yet again. It's really making me wonder what we'll see with 1994. River City Ransom and Wing Commander but not Mega Man 3? That's a hard pill to swallow.

It's awfully hard to pick 1990 after we saw the 87/85 result: big Mario game vs. Zelda and other big franchises and it gets tripled. Maybe 1990 makes a better game of it? I won't bet on it. Normally I'd go like 58/42 on this but given how lopsided this contest has been, I'm gonna go into the 60s to be safe.

transience's prediction: 2000 with 64.44%


Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve started to leak confidence in my 1990 > 2000 pick for the last couple of days. I knew 1990 was heavily dependent on Mario 3 and FFI, but it didn’t dawn on me how precipitous the dropoff is until I saw the match pic. There was also the 1987 > 1985 result, where depth trumped the singular strong anchor. I think this match is a different situation than that one. Mario 1 is a well-respected game, but Mario 3 is a beloved game. It’s still a top 25 caliber game in the eyes of many, including myself. I think that distinction matters (although it may only lessen how badly 1990 loses!).

There was also some question about whether there was some sort of strange generational SFF involved in 1985/1987. Nobody knows for sure, but it was far more lopsided than anyone predicted. This will be the first time a year from the ‘90s clashes with a year from the ‘00s, so I’ll be curious to see how that plays out, even if 1990 barely qualifies as a ‘90s year since it was pre-SNES and 2000 might as well be an honorary member of the ‘90s since the N64 and PS1 were still alive and kicking!
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Pick a match

Do the write-up

Send to [email protected]

1991 vs. 1988 -
2002 vs. 2010 -
1994 vs. 2004 -
2011 vs. 2006 -

1998 vs. 1993 -
1992 vs. 2016 -
2013 vs. 2003 -
2015 vs. 2005 -
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Round 1

2001 - 74.70%
2008 - 64.60%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

I have a bit of a bias towards 2008 because Persona 4 was released that year, which makes it a bigger year than most for me. In reality, 2008 probably isn't actually that strong, despite seeming like it should be. I mean, it does have a Metal Gear, a Smash Bros., a Fallout, a GTA (lol)...but I have a hard time seeing most people look at that list and being super excited about it. I could be wrong though, it does happen on occasion!! Mercifully, there's not much wiggle room for me to be proven wrong, because 2009 is straight-up junk, and 2001 will have a field day next round. Next round will actually be a fun one to analyze due to the parallels between 2001 and 2008, even if the result is pretty much set in stone.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2008 with 65%



Guest’s Analysis - Spike

This is probably a 2008/2009 matchup (was heavily 2009 favored on paper, and as I write this 2009 is winning with 81.14% of the vote so nothing needs to be said about 1979).

That being said, 2009 is probably not coming close to beating 2008. The notable games are pretty good, and maybe there's an outside chance Minecraft is a potential rally candidate. However, the likes of Uncharted 2, Dragon Age: Origins, SF IV, and Batman: Arkham Asylum all suffer from being "good, but not Nintendo/Square".

2008 does not have this problem. Forget all the games listed for a second, Brawl being here is enough on its own to push 2008 into the second round pretty comfortably. Also I've not played MGS4 but I hear Snake is pretty popular. I didn't think much about this one.

65-35 in favor of 2008



Crew Consensus: The earlier year wins yet again
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 2008 vs. 2009

Moltar’s Analysis

We already watched 2009 trounce a fodder year to get into the bracket, but now that it’s here, it’s going to fight a year that can fight back.

2009 doesn’t have any world-beater games, and neither does 2008. However, with Brawl, Persona 4, Fallout 3, and MGS4, that list of games says a little bit more to me than 2009’s games. Comparing them all straight up, I’d put all those 2008 games over 2009, but it would be fairly close.

So with that, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that this isn’t going to be a blowout. 2008 just has a little more depth and strength than 2009, and I think that will be reflected here in a...relatively close match based off what we’ve seen so far.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2008

Moltar’s Prediction: 2008 - 63%



transience’s Analysis

2008's like 2006 - three or four big games, games that were big but now aren't AS big. MGS4, Brawl and Fallout 3 have been kind of trumped by either their predecessors or expectations. MGS4 has fallen to 1-3, Brawl stopped being relevant when Smash 4 came out and Fallout 3.. well, Fallout 3 is probably still a big deal. 4 didn't displace it. Skyrim did, though, and I wonder if F3 still has the cache that it had a few years back.

Doesn't matter though. Its opponent is 2009 which kind of struggled against friggin' 1979. Its picture, assuming it's reusing the one from the wildcard round which the file naming convention suggests, is a couple of western action games, Minecraft and SF4. 2008 should take care of that easily by having RPGs and Nintendo games. 2009 has neither.

2008 would have been a fun debate against some other gaming years but it gets fed to 01 next round. Not worth going too deep here.

transience's prediction: 2008 with 75.55%




Leonhart’s Analysis

2009 had an easy win in the Wild Card round, but this is where it ends. 2008 has three games featured in its match pic that would easily beat any game from 2009: MGS4, Fallout 3, and Brawl. Say what you will about MGS4 and Brawl not being what they used to be, but they’re still pretty strong. I’d wager Persona 4 can hang in there with any of 2009’s games, too. 2009 has some good midcarders behind it, but it’s simply outclassed by 2008. This might be the closest match of the contest to date, but that’s not saying much!

Leonhart’s Vote: 2008

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2008 with 65.65%
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1979 18.9% 2978
2009 81.1% 12782
TOTAL VOTES 15760

1983 30.29% 4749
1989 69.71% 10929
TOTAL VOTES 15678

1981 25.71% 3862
2006 74.29% 11158
TOTAL VOTES 15020

1978 14.47% 2088
2005 85.53% 12343
TOTAL VOTES 14431

Crew Predictions: 4/4

What Happened: Low vote totals and obvious blowouts

What Will Happen: Some of these games go on to lose in Round 1, others in Round 2

Crew Prediction Challenge: Everyone off to a good start

Leonhart: 4
Moltar: 4
Guest: 4
transience: 4
Kleenex: 4

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Dp gets the point for 79/09, Kleenex gets the point for 83/89 and 81/06, and Moltar gets the point for 78/05

Kleenex: 2
Moltar: 1
Guest: 1 (Dp)
transience: 0
Leonhart: 0
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Kleenex’s Analysis

How sad is that 2014 games list. Three Wii U games and Dark Souls 3. 2014 was not a great year for games, and it's up against one of the contest juggernauts. 2001 is the favorite to make it out of the top half of the bracket to the finals, and this is a good chance for it to prove its worth. I'm not actually as high on 2001 as a lot of people are, but there's no denying that the triple threat of FFX, MGS2 and SSBM make it a formidable year. Also Halo.

2001 really should shoot for the moon here, because it got one of the biggest opening round softballs in the contest. There aren't too many years I'd take 2014 over, aside from the pre-NES wildcard entrants.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2001 with 82%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

Another contest, another analysis. Nice to be back doing these.

Coming into this match is the powerhouse known as 2001. I think the site in general is expecting a great run from this year, and why not with dynamic duo known as Super Smash Brothers Melee and Final Fantasy X. Now FFX seems to have dropped in power a bit more than people would have expected if judging from the 2015 contest, not really showing a convincing 1st or 2nd round against Half Life or Mega Man X before being practically walloped by Chrono Trigger 65-35. However, Melee has stayed pretty consistent even to last contest and always has a strong support base so the combination of those two should really do some damage in this contest. Oh yea there's also some other 2001 games but let's be honest what we're paying attention for.

I'm utterly flummoxed by the fact that for notable games for 2014 Allen didn't list Dragon Age: Inquisition, which I feel like won the most GOTY awards that year. Anyway 2014 isn't anything to slouch over in terms of great games, like the aforementioned Inquisition, Bayonetta 2, and Middle-Earth Shadow of Mordor. And.....what's this.....oh yea another Smash game called Super Smash Bros. 4. So I'm guessing that might be where 2014 gets most of its strength, as Smash 4 is regarded highly as the rightful successor to Melee. But paired up against each other, I'm betting on nostalgia holding out. Plus Melee is still a great game that gets EVO events and such. Other than that 2014 does not have much in terms of contest strength. Dark Souls 2, while a good game, is not viewed nearly as highly as the rest of the Souls series games while Destiny is treated as a quasi-joke, getting almost obliterated R1 2015 against Starcraft 75-25. So yea before I ramble on more 2014 is not looking too favorable of an option in this match.

2001 wins with 76.58%



Crew Consensus: 2001: A Space Victory
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Round 1 – 2001 vs. 2014

Moltar’s Analysis

Alright so 1987 is showing that depth is pretty important for a year’s strength. Now we’ve got 2001 which is one of the deepest ones in the contest to maybe back that up. Nintendo fans, Square fans, western fans, 2001 has a game for all of you here. Melee, FFX, GTA3, Halo, and the list goes on.

2014...yeah, it’s got nothing that stands up against those classics. The blowouts continue.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2001

Moltar’s Prediction: 2001 - 75%



transience’s Analysis

Wow. Has any debated match ever been a bigger blowout than 1987/1985? I'm trying to think of something legitimately discussed that then turned into a tripling. Not bad 1987. Maybe we've got some SFF or something, who knows. Nothing makes sense.

Okay, today is a much easier day. 2014 has basically one game: Smash 4. Unfortunately, 2001 has the granddaddy of Smash games. There's no way that Allen misses a chance to pit Melee and 4 up against each other in a picture.

Maybe Smash 4 can hold its own, but the likes of Bayonetta 2 or Dark Souls 2 isn't going to hold up to whatever he could throw into the 2001 picture. FFX, GTA3, Halo.. Halo...

You know, I wonder if Halo is actually a net negative for the year and there's no way you avoid putting the game that launched the Xbox in a picture about gaming years. Maybe we'll revisit this in later rounds. For now, 2001 takes it easy.

transience's prediction: 2001 with 80.11%



Leonhart’s Analysis

As I watch 1987 crush 1985, I guess I might have to rethink my assertion that depth isn’t that important! But it could be some weird SFF, too, so who knows! I don’t think this will tell us too much about 2001 unless it goes really, really high or really, really low. It’s got all the games it needs in the match pic (I guess you could argue MGS2 would be a better inclusion, but eh), and 2014 has Destiny prominently featured in its match pic, which can’t be good for it. On the other hand, 2014 does have Smash 4 as the first game featured, opposite Halo 1 for 2001, but I don’t know if that will make any difference. There’s no way to tell unless 2014 overperforms and then we can speculate that it did.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2001

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2001 with 80.80%
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aww yeah slaying already
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woo depth
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Round 1

1995 - 88.70%
1987 - 54.30%
2001 - 71.70%
2008 - 61.60%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

I wish 1987 had a better spot in the bracket, because it's probably the strongest of the NES years, with really only 1990 giving it a run for its money. As it is, it gets a relatively easy win here, and then folds to 1995 next round. Shame.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1987 with 64%



Guest’s Analysis - Yoblazer

With the wildcard matches over, we're all collectively hoping that the real bracket can deliver some more votals and excitement. The first match, where 1995 is heavily anchored by Chrono Trigger, should result in one of the biggest blowouts of the contest. This second matchup, fortunately, isn't as predictable. In fact, it's our first debated showdown.

1985 has a very strong anchor in the original Super Mario Bros. While 1987's top game, The Legend of Zelda, may not be quite as strong, it can rely on a much more robust supporting cast with Metroid, Castlevania, Mega Man, and Mike Tyson's Punch-Out! Apart from The Oregon Trail, 1985 has practically nothing which can help Mario share the load.

Share the load.



Share the load.

https://pagelady.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/gandalf_falling.jpg

Shaaaare theeee loooooaaad.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view5/4278364/share-the-load-o.gif

This match has generated discussion since the bracket was unveiled, but a new layer of intrigue has been added once we discovered SBAllen's "interesting" picture format for Round 1 - with rotating pics that shift the focus to one of four games (selected by Allen) every five seconds. The board is in general agreement that the FIRST game in any year's armada of four is the most important, as that may be the only one voters take the time to see before casting a vote.

For some, this has swayed things in 1985's favor, as SMB is almost guaranteed to be its first game in its rotation. While LoZ is likely to bat first for 1987, there's a chance that Allen can opt for something else because WHY NOT MAKE US MAD.

Still, I feel confident in 1987, if for no other reason than this picture format completely ignores console releases. Nowhere on 1985's profile (picture, text, anywhere) will we see any mention of the NES release, and I feel this omission will have about as big an impact on 1985's strength as any one thing can have on 1987's. Additionally - and feel free to call me out on this - I'm not THAT convinced that SMB is even a stronger anchor. Yes, it proved stronger back in 2009, but I feel the Zelda series as a whole has grown since then, at least relative to Mario. The two 8-bit powerhouses may be on somewhat even footing.

With the NES nowhere in sight and with 1987's far superior firepower (despite it getting diluted with the picture format), I think that it'll cruise to a more comfortable win than many are expecting.

1987 – 57%



Crew Consensus: Crew is split! We slightly favor 1987
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..and now I feel even more confused. Neither picture is good! For 1985, it got the classic Mario icon but starts off with Excitebike of all games and gets a bad Mario 1 art piece. 1987 features four classics but bad Zelda 1 artwork and box art Mega Man. Does it hurt? Probably not, but it's not the home run that a screenshot would have been.

So I'll call the picture a draw and ignore it. I think voters in this context, where we have less than 20000 votes, are generally pretty knowledgeable folks. As we shrink, the average user becomes less casual and more gamefaqs-y. They know what years are important. I don't think the picture is the end-all as it would have been ten years ago when people cared about this site.

Which year is more important? I'd argue 1987 with the launch of so many big franchises. But the average person will say 1985 and the launch of the NES.

transience's prediction: 1985 with 53.56%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Here’s the first (and one of the few) hotly debated match of the contest. The arguments for 1987 are easy to make. 1987 has a lot of depth and is a launching point for many franchises, most notably Zelda. I don’t think the individual games themselves are worth that much outside of LoZ, but they’re big names. If most voters take depth into consideration, 1987 takes this one. It got the best-case scenario in its match pic to take advantage of that, too.

But as I said in the previous match, I’m dubious about how much voters will actually take depth into consideration. I’d wager most people are more like me and not like transience or Yoblazer in that they don’t keep a running tally of what came out in what year. I think a lot of people will look for something they really like and go, “Oh man, I love that game!” and vote for that year, especially with the way these match pictures are formatted. I doubt most voters are going to sit there for 30 seconds and let everything rotate through first, and there have been issues with the pictures not rotating at all for a lot of people, to boot. Plus, Mario 1 has the “respect” factor in its corner. If people take into account how important a release was, very little can top Mario 1. It’s one of the most widely respected games out there, and just about everyone’s played it at some point. Allen is basically ignoring console releases for all intents and purposes, but I wasn’t really banking on the NES to help out that much anyway, so whatever.

I’m aware that I’m betting on one very specific scenario in order for 1985 to win here. It’s definitely the underdog, but in a contest like this where there aren’t a lot of toss-ups, I’ve gotta take a risk somewhere. This is as good of a place as any. Regardless, this match will tell us a lot about how the average voter is viewing this contest.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1985

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1985 with 54.44%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This is probably the first 'real' match of the contest. 'Real' in the sense that it's theoretically a tossup, but when you take a closer look at the game list, it's not. The only thing 1985 really has going for it is Super Mario Bros. Consoles have, thus far, not mattered. That could change today if there's an NES in the picture, but as of right now, I'm going to assume it won't be. Given that, Mario already loses to 1987 because of Zelda. When you throw in Punch-Out, Mega Man and Castlevania, it's no contest. Even if we assume the NES makes an appearance in the match pics, I'm still pretty confident that 1987 wins this.
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Round 1 – 1985 vs. 1987

Moltar’s Analysis

The first debated match of the contest is this bad boy. Two very close years that have some of the best that the NES had to offer. This match is going to be a good sign of what’s to come. One of the main pre-contest debates was anchor vs. depth, or to put in broader terms, quality vs. quantity (of quality). Which of those factors is going to matter more?

1985 is what’s considered as an anchor year, which means that its strength is hinging on one big title, and that is Super Mario Bros, the strongest NES game. Nothing else released that year comes close, and that title alone would put it over the rest of the 1980s easy.

1987 is what’s considered as a depth year. By then, the NES had been out for a while, and some of its more popular titles were starting to come out. These include little known releases like Mega Man, Castlevania, Metroid, and something called The Legend of Zelda. There are a lot of strong titles here, but they all bow down to Super Mario Bros.

Hence the debate, can SMB carry 1985 to a victory over 1987 despite it having way more to offer? Based off what we’ve seen so far, the picture is going to play a huge role here. If SMB is featured in the forefront, that could be all she wrote. If it ends up being the 3rd or 4th pic in the rotation though, that could allow for 1987 to take it. We’ll also finally be able to see how the voters are really voting here, and if they are taking the entire year of releases into account.

I’m going with 1987 because my guess is that depth > anchor, but this result is going to shape what we see during the rest of the contest.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1987

Moltar’s Prediction: 1987 - 52%



transience’s Analysis

I'm gonna have to wait for the match picture to even understand how to think about this one. This contest is so dependent on what you get, especially in a matchup as close as this. NES Mario and Zelda have been a little rivalry ever since 2004 when Zelda 1 rose to heaven against bad opponents only to get stopped by Mario 3, the second of four straight Zelda games to go down that year. That was an amazing week for contests - the hype/fear of Zelda domination followed by each one going down one by one. It didn't get another shot until 2009 where it got beaten clean by Mario 1 twice. Zelda 1 is strong, but it's clearly not on Mario's level when we talk about the NES.

That's the perfect framing for 1985 vs. 1987. 1987 is one of the 3-4 biggest years in gaming history, especially on console, thanks to all the series' that started here. Metroid, Zelda, Castlevania, Mega Man, plus classics like Punch-Out and Kid Icarus. The NES came out in 85 but it came to life in 87.

Meanwhile, 85 is.. Mario 1. A lot of games came out at launch but it's really just Mario and Duck Hunt that would stand up today. That said, a picture of Mario and Duck Hunt implies the launch of the NES which is a powerful thing. My thinking on this match is that it's really Mario and Zelda on display here and there needs to be enough big games in the picture to matter. If it's Mario and Duck hunt vs. Zelda and Metroid, Mario wins. If it's Mario, Duck Hunt, Gauntlet and Oregon Trail vs. Zelda, Metroid, Castlevania and Mega Man, I feel a little better about 1987.

As it turns out, we do get 4v4 -- but with the added wrinkle that these awful rotating pictures will likely only show voters one or maybe two games. There's also a little logo for each year and, as strong as Zelda 1 is in that format, it can't match up against a mushroom. If 1985 gets what I think it will get, 1985 will take it.

All that said, I'm waiting for the match picture...
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Alright, now that we got through those wildcard rounds, we can get to some real matches!

...well, maybe not. I never realized how dire 1986's game collection is. What's the strongest game here? Bubble Bobble? That's rough. Meanwhile, I've got Big Plans™ for 1995. In the grand tradition of overrating Chrono Trigger every contest, I have 1995 making a pretty deep run in my bracket. The supporting cast of Yoshi's Island, EarthBound and the Playstation launch (lol consoles) made it seems like an enticing choice. Given the disastrous pictures so far though, Chrono Trigger might not even make it on the front page. Who knows.

Either way, this should be a rout because 1986 has no games.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1995 with 84%



Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz

Ok so we all know 95 wins. It has Chrono Trigger, possibly the strongest game on GameFAQs before rallies, whereas 86 has…umm…Balloon Fight…uh…Bubble Bobble…and, uh…Master System?

Basically, 86 has nothing GameFAQs gives a s*** about. I don’t think a single game from that year has ever shown up in a BGE contest. This isn’t even an Atari year either (not the 7800 which who cares it was released this year), this is the first full year the NES was on the market in North America. Between Mario and Metroid NOTHING came out for the NES that GameFAQs cares for at all.

So with all that said, this could potentially be the blowout of the contest. To give some perspective, CT scored 85% on Ratchet & Clank 3 in BGE 2015. I’m assuming that whatever fodder there is in 86 would do even worse.

I picked an NES game I felt would be around the strength of this year (in this case, River City Ransom) from the x-stats on ngamer’s website, put it up against Chrono Trigger, and here’s what popped out:

1995: 93.25%
1986: 6.75%

As for implications for later rounds, 95 will have to put around this performance to stand up against 01, in my opinion. Anything below 90, and I think it could be in trouble.


Crew Consensus: Chrono Trigger wins
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 1 – 1995 vs. 1986

Moltar’s Analysis

First actual match of the contest yay

Fifth blowout of the contest boo

Chrono Trigger alone makes 1995 one of the strongest years in this Contest. Having secondary games like EarthBound, DKC2, and Yoshi’s Island also don’t hurt its case. 1986 doesn’t have anything of note, so this is going to be about how big 1995 can go here.

We saw CT put up some very impressive numbers in the Best Game Ever, and it definitely still is one of the top games on this site. That alone is enough for 1995 to put up 80%+ on a year with no standout games.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1995

Moltar’s Prediction: 1995 - 87%



transience’s Analysis

1986 is a dreadful year. The early 80s have games that aren't loved, but are seen as classics. 86 has none of that. It's just a dead year with nothing in it. Video games didn't really start being great -- the great that we think of today -- until 87. SMB1 was just way ahead of its time.

1995 should wreck it. Chrono Trigger's a top 5 game on the site but there's also a bunch of other games that, while not top tier games, are diverse, well-known and well-liked. Earthbound, DKC2, Yoshi's Island, assorted PS1 games -- yeah, 95's going to town here. This'll be our first clue to see if 95 can hang with 2001. I think it needs to go above 85% to stay in that conversation - and it should given how bad 86 is. Hopefully it breaks 90.

transience's prediction: 1995 with 89.23%



Leonhart’s Analysis


You could put Chrono Trigger in this match by itself against 1986’s entire video game library, and it’d crush this match. It could be that infamous “Link vs. Everyone” type of match others used to suggest hypothetically in the past. I’ve been of the opinion that depth isn’t really going to matter as much as a lot of people think, and your top anchor will matter the most, so 1995 scares me a lot. Chrono Trigger was truly fearsome in the last Games Contest, and it could’ve won that contest.

1986 is the year of my birth, but sadly, it might be the weakest year outside of the vote-ins. Its most notable release might be me. Seriously, you could just put a picture of me on the front page, and it wouldn’t change much.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1995

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1995 with 90.90%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Wildcard Round
2006 - 83.70%
2005 - 84.60%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Space Invaders is pretty cool I guess. Man, these early years really didn't need to be here. I get wanted to give face time to these early games, but this is going to be another route.

More interesting in this match is 2005's strength, or lack thereof. 4 Resident Evil is a fairly big deal on this site, and we obviously love some Ace Attorney. SotC had that fun run in GotD...but I'm not convinced that's going to be enough. Beyond those 3 games, 2005 is kind of a void of nothingness and honestly, Ace Attorney isn't adding much strength to that concoction. I think 2005 will be a big test of how much one game can carry a year.

2005 with 72%



Guest’s Analysis - t_kizzle

Rarely have we seen a weaker contest entity than 1978. Space Invaders is this year’s big anchor, a game whose entire contest history amounts to a finish in the bottom six of the 2009 x-stats. Many years’ fifth-most notable games could beat Space Invaders handily, and SI is 1978’s strongest game by a large margin, probably being the only thing here that 95% of GameFAQs users have ever even heard of.

What years would fail to at least double 1978? 1979, certainly; maybe ‘86 or ‘83, though they’d still win handily. The point being, this match was always going to be one of the blowouts of the contest, and when 1978’s opponent is a year anchored by two veteran midcarders you know it’s gonna be ugly.

Prediction:

2005 with 88.65%
1978 with 11.35%


Crew Consensus: New beats old yet again
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Wildcard Round: – 1978 vs. 2005

Moltar’s Analysis

day two and we’re already at the two sentence write-ups aww yeah

While 2005 doesn’t match up to 2006 on paper, it’s still a pretty solid year with Shadow of the Colossus and RE4 at the helm. Just like in the previous match, while 1978 has some very iconic games, it doesn’t hold a candle to the 2005 games that people care about.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2005

Moltar’s Prediction: 2005 - 82%



transience’s Analysis

1978? Really? This might be the blowout of the contest. 2005 is unique in that it lacks a strong Nintendo or Square game but we're up against Space Invaders here. I don't even need to write any more.

transience's prediction: 2005 with 89.44%



Leonhart’s Analysis

1978’s claim to fame is Space Invaders, a game I have fond memories of. When I was a kid, my dentist had a Space Invaders arcade cabinet in the waiting room, and he had it set up so you could lift the lid and give yourself as many credits as you wanted. It was a pretty sweet deal, and I put a good bit of time into it over the years, although I never really got the hang of it. Unfortunately, it hasn’t done well in its scant poll history. It finished dead last in a match against Tetris, DK, and Punch-Out!! However, it did beat out the original Sonic the Hedgehog in a “Which of this year’s inductees into the World Video Game Hall of Fame is most deserving?” poll, so that’s…something, I guess!

2005 is probably one of the weaker post-90s years. The final GOTY poll featured Mario Kart DS, for cryin’ out loud! I questioned 2006’s inclusion into the Wild Card round, but 2005 is a totally fair placement. RE4 seemed to have dropped off a little bit in the Games Contest. God of War (the other finalist in that GOTY poll) has probably fallen off, too. The two big movers since then are the original Ace Attorney and Shadow of the Colossus, which have each come a long way over the years. I’d have more confidence in them helping 2005 win multiple matches than anything else, honestly. That being said, it’ll win this match easily. It might be weak compared to its contemporaries, but it’ll kill anything from before the time when most of this site was born.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2005

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2005 with 77.77%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

1981 is the only one of these early years to have some oopmh behind it. Ms. Pac-Man, Donkey Kong...Zork! Look out. 2006, on the other hand, has those five magical letters - ZELDA. It also has a Final Fantasy game. And an Elder Scrolls game. And a Kingdom Hearts. 2006 should be pretty strong, by my estimation. It's pretty clearly head and shoulders over the other 7 wildcard entrants, and I'm honestly kind of shocked it ended up stuck here instead of in the main bracket. 2006 could end up being a bit of a spoiler later on during the contest.

2006 with 82%



Guest’s Analysis - Haste

Tonight's match is a real shame. 1981 is clearly the strongest of the pre-1985 games to get in, having two hits (Donkey Kong and Ms. Pac-Man) that are well-known to this day. We're sure to see those two in the match pictures along with two "whatevers". Maybe it could have had a shot against something, like '86 or '88. At the very least, we're likely to see those games in the front of the game rotation, so that's good.

2006, meanwhile, has two pretty big hits in Twilight Princess and Kingdom Hearts II. It covers two of the largest fanbases on the site, so the match is going to be pretty ugly. Oblivion doesn't hurt, either. Donkey Kong vs. Twilight Princess? A few voters might pause to consider the featured games' place in history, but just forget about trying to win, 1981.

2006 wins - 82.68%


Crew Consensus: 2006 stomps
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Wildcard Round: – 1981 vs. 2006

Moltar’s Analysis

1981 has some real iconic games in it with Ms. Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, and Galaga. Unfortunately for them, as we’ve seen in previous contests, iconic status means nothing when they’re matched with opponents that people really care for.

2006 is arguably the strongest wildcard entrant here since it’s got both Twilight Princess and KH2, two very strong games on GameFAQs. It follows those up with a bunch of solid midcarders like Okami, Oblivion, and FF12 as well. 1981 doesn’t stand a chance against that line-up.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2006

Moltar’s Prediction: 2006 - 85%



transience’s Analysis

This doesn't seem fair at all. 1981 might be the worst year in the contest. Heck, Zork 1 didn't even come out in 1980 and it made the contest banner! It has to go up against a year that isn't great but is pretty stacked at the top with big Nintendo and Square games. 1981 might get some pity votes here because come on. Ms. Pac-Man and Galaga are classics but they aren't going to hold up to Zelda and Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts.

transience's prediction: 2006 with 83.45%



Leonhart’s Analysis

1981 looked to be the strongest game from either vote-in because it’s got some classics people know and have probably played, like Ms. Pac-Man and Donkey Kong. The original Pac-Man has done decently in both character and games contests, but Ms. Pac-Man is infamous for being on the receiving end of the first 90% blowout in contest history. I imagine the game is much weaker than Pac-Man, too. SexistFAQs and all that. Donkey Kong got crushed by Tetris in round 1 and finished dead last in round 2 in the 2009 contest, and it nearly choked away the biggest lead in contest history to Duck Hunt in 2004. It has name recognition but not much else.

I don’t know if Allen tried to put what he assumed to be the four weakest years into the Wild Card round, but if he did, he probably made a mistake putting 2006 in here. I’d like to know what his thought process was when making the bracket, other than trying to set up FFVII vs. OoT—er, excuse me, 1997 vs. 1998—in the finals as usual. Anyway, 2006 has a mainline Zelda and Kingdom Hearts II, which would obliterate anything and everything from 1981. It’s got a lot more than that, too, but that’s enough to tell you what we’re in for in this match.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2006

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2006 with 84.25%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

should be a little better when the more popular years show up but yeah casuals confirmed confused
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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yikes that layout
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Wildcard Round
2009 - 82.70%
1989 - 69.60%
2006 - 85.10%
2005 - 83.50%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

This is slightly more interesting than the first wildcard match, but not really. You can probably make a case for 1983 being even weaker than 1979. At least 1983 has the word 'Mario' associated with it in some capacity, so that might be its saving grace.

I think 1989 is going to be deceptively weak, though. Certainly not enough to be in danger of not crushing this match, but the big name games in the year are perennial under-performers. Mega Man 2 is pretty weak, and Tetris only looks strong when it's up against nothing. Which is the case here, so it'll do fine, but look for 1989 to get crushed next round.

1989 with 70%



Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

Although none of the Vote-In years appearing in the Wildcard Round will advance to round 1, 1983 has the best chance and even that's almost impossible without a rally. This match would have been more interesting if this was 1983/1986 instead, as 1983 could get past 1986. Despite 1989 being the second weakest NES year, it still has enough going for it to gave it the edge over 1983. 1989 has Mega Man 2, Tetris, and the releases of the Genesis and Game Boy while 1983 only has Mario Bros. as its only notable game.

This match should be much less of a blowout compared to the other 3 matches in the Wildcard Round. In the 1980s Vote-In poll, 1981 put up 63.62% on 1983. 1989 should be even stronger than 1981, which should likely place 1989 in the 70-75% range for this match.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 1989

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 1989 - 69.30%


Crew Consensus: 1989 takes it (even without MM2 in the pic what)
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Wildcard Round – 1983 vs. 1989

Moltar’s Analysis

Now we’ve got a match with two years in the same decade. That doesn’t make this match any more difficult to pick though, as 1989 has a few strong older games in it, most notably MM2 and Tetris. 1983 has the original Mario Bros., but that isn’t touching MM2 on GameFAQs, and none of the other games from that year come close to Tetris.

You could make a case for some games being able to carry their entire year, but the original Mario Bros. is not one of them.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1989

Moltar’s Prediction: 1989 - 72%



transience’s Analysis

1989 is a pretty great year for the NES but let's face it, the only games on the NES worth anything are from our holy trinity of game franchises: Mario, Zelda and, to a lesser extent, Final Fantasy. We like to think of GameFAQs as old but it's not NES old, not across the board. Most people played NES games after the fact and not when they came out. 1987, 1988 and 1990 have a Mario or a Zelda to anchor them. 1989 misses out.

There's a weird alternate reality where 1989 bombs and 1983, anchored by the picture of Mario Bros., pulls off a shocking upset. We always have unpredictable second matches, right? Oh, wait, Tetris and Mega Man 2, while not universaly loved, are universally recognized and still hold up today as absolute classics. Get outta here, 1983.

transience's prediction: 1989 with 78.53%



Leonhart’s Analysis

1983 finished second in its vote-in, probably solely on the strength of the original Mario Bros. I suppose it’s got a shot here if people confuse it for Super Mario Bros. or something, because I imagine it’ll be featured prominently in the match pic. That’s what makes this contest so hard to analyze. We have no idea how voters will approach the contest or what the pics will look like. I tend to give the voters a lot of credit in that they know what the poll is asking for and they vote accordingly, but we have no idea how much information Allen is actually going to give them. Plus, he’s barely promoted the contest to anyone outside of Board 8. He’s already announced he’s scrapping the blurbs he asked us to write, and if it’s like the vote-ins, you’re just getting one picture from a single game in the match. If you get Mario and Luigi vs. Mega Man 2, who knows what’ll happen? However, it had that Mario Bros. pic in the vote-in and still finished a distant second.

On the face of it, 1989 should win this one pretty easily. It’s got Mega Man 2 and Tetris, two games that’ll blow out fodder but that’ll fold in the face of stuff people actually know and like. 1983 has a lot of the former and none of the latter. 1989 also has the launch of the Game Boy and the Sega Genesis. I don’t know how much that’ll help, but it certainly can’t hurt. Barring some weird picture shenanigans, 1989 should take this easily.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1989

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1989 with 75.90%
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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Tiebreaker: 957675

2009
1989
2006
2005

1995
1987
2001
2008
1997
2007
2000
1996
1991
2002
1994
2006
1998
1992
2003
2005

1995
2001
1997
2000
1991
1994
1998
2003

2001
2000
1991
1998

2001
1998

1998
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Moltar Status: contest woo
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LusterSoldier posted...

First match pictures uploaded to the GameFAQs server earlier suggests only 2 matches per day (running at the same time) in the Wildcard Round.

darn and here i got all four wildcard matches ready for nothing

LeonhartFour posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

does this mean I'm Chie

you're...whoever Chariot is in P5 in this scenario

which isn't an insult i promise
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Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/