Lurker > lesidesi

Phoenix wright trilogy

Ranzoh posted...

lesidesi posted...

wolfy's advice is definitely oversimplified and borderline dangerous
there are significant liquidity issues amongst a million other concerns i have with wolfy's analysis

not to mention wolfy's reductive explanations on inflation, holding cash, and investing in gold

You made a wonderful analysis on the returns of the million dollar investment compared to the partial payments of the 5k/month. But isn't the NPV or PV important to consider which investment is worth more? The million dollars today would only decline in value in the future, likewise with the 5k investment. But I'm not a finance major so, eh heh.

I did a future value analysis - to see how much money you'd have at a point in time in the future. If you wanted to see what it's worth today - the million is just worth a million. Then you can sensitive different reinvestment rates to see what the $5000 payments are worth today. For example, if you had a given reinvestment rate, similar to what I used, and wanted to treat the 5k payments as a perpetuity (which is unrealistic) you could use annuity perpetuity calculations. So you're absolutely right - and one can definitely do that analysis - but I felt it was more revealing to look at what you'd have in the future over time.

However, saying the million dollars today would only decline in value in the future is following the assumption that you don't invest the money and just hold it as cash. Because I'm assuming you invest the full amount and let it compound - it's not fair to say that it would decline in value in the future.

wolfy's advice is definitely oversimplified and borderline dangerous
there are significant liquidity issues amongst a million other concerns i have with wolfy's analysis

not to mention wolfy's reductive explanations on inflation, holding cash, and investing in gold

This is pretty dependent on what you think you can earn through re-investment income.

Let's start with a few carry through assumptions:
- consistent start date of Jan 1, 2018 for your full million, or your first $5000 monthly payment.
- 20% capital gains tax (only taxes are on re-investment income).
- Each $5k monthly payment is immediately re-invested at the rate.

Understand that this is quite simplified, but I think it's good enough for the purposes here.

Base Case Assumption: 5% annual re-investment rate.
In this case, we are earning 5%/12 each month on our million, or our re-invested $5k monthly payments.
In this case, the million is worth more until ~2046, where the $5k a month becomes better.


Downside Case Assumption: 2% annual re-investment rate.
In this case, we are earning 2%/12 each month on our million, or our re-invested $5k monthly payments.
In this case, the million is worth more until ~2037, where the $5k a month becomes better.


Upside Case Assumption: 7.5% annual re-investment rate.
In this case, we are earning 7.5%/12 each month on our million, or our re-invested $5k monthly payments.
In this case, the million is worth more until ~2100, where the $5k a month becomes better - but this is so late that you're likely dead or near dead at this point and will have wanted access to the capital before this point.


Honestly, with $1 million in capital, investment options become quite broad - and it's not overly difficult to find reasonably safe hedge funds that can return 7.5% net of fees per year with ease - and a $1 million subscription is typically big enough that a hedge fund will consider it.

Obviously, either option is quite nice if invested responsibly, and "free money" like this is a wonderful option.
If I made any mistakes please let me know and I will happily update this - I rattled this off reasonably quickly and need to get back to work at the moment.

Portfolio Manager

when i interview people i care way more about who is the best for the job
whether or not they send me a thank you later is pretty irrelevant

by the time i get the thank you i probably have a view on if that person is making next round or not

i bet tons of girls follow you around the mall