Lurker > Suprak the Stud

Heitkamp will lose, Cruz will win, Blackburn will win.

The one I'm not positive about is McCaskill. She's a genius politician so I hope she can somehow stick around, but Missouri is going further and further to the right and she is remaining who she's been since she was first elected. That race is going to be close, but I'm worried she may lose.

I think Manchin and Tester are both safe.

Donnelly and Nelson are both in serious danger too. And neither Arizona or Nevada are a safe thing.

A result of -2 wouldn't surprise me. At this point I'm honestly just hoping they somehow break even. But, again, breaking even is a huge victory for Trump because you're getting rid of three of the five republicans that would even consider saying anything negative about him in Corker, Flake, and McCain. The only one you really have to worry about dissent from is Murkowski, as Collins has gone along with every single thing other than the healthcare vote and almost never says anything critical about him.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LIke I thought that was an onion headline before I saw the source. And it isnt even satire if you read the article.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yeah this may not be the best title for a pro Kavanaugh piece:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/susan-collins-consents-1538780948?mod=e2two
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I don't think Quebec wants to deal with anything that isn't Quebec, tbqh.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Just Fat Enough To Sit A Horse:
1) DoubleTangicide
2) dowolf
3) htaeD
4) IfGodCouldDie
5) masterplum
6) Meow1000
7) Neablis
8) Obellisk
9) ScareChan
10) Shaduln
11) Viserion

Too Fat To Sit A Horse (THE DECEASED):
LD1 - red: Varys, TARGARYEN Role Swapper
MKD1 - ben: Barristan Selmy, TARGARYEN Bulletproof Roleblocker
KN1 - Chris: Qyburn, TOWN Protector
KN1 - MI: Jon Snow, TOWN Warg
LD2 - Sheep: Arya Stark, TOWN Vanilla
MKD2 - Harris: Night King, TOWN Dead Empowerer
KD2 - ImGhostWoofWoof: Ghost, TOWN Direwolf
KN2 - Han: Three-Eyed Crow, TOWN Greenseer
LD3 - MZero: Wyman Manderly, TOWN Rolecop

It is now night! Please get all night actions to me by 9PM CST Saturday!

NO POSTING!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

VOTALS
[6] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death, Blade, dowolf
[2] IGCD - (SBell), (SBell), (Shad), (Scare), MZero, Neablis
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] dowolf - (MZero), (Death), (plum)
[0] SBell - (Tange), (Scare), (IGCD)
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

MZero was lynched! He was...

MY FAVORITE FLAVOR YOU JERKS!

Lord Too-Fat-To-Sit-A-Horse. Your fellow northerners think you weak. But there is no one in the north that remembers who their friends are more than you. You'll have to remind them.

You are Wyman Manderly, TOWN Rolecop. Each night you may select one target and you will learn that individual's role. Be aware that some characters have a "flavorful" role name in addition to a standard one. You will only learn the standard one (so if they are Town Kitty Cat (Psychologist) you will only learn the "Psychologist" portion). You win when all threats to TOWN have been eliminated.

---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

STOP

Plz.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

VOTALS
[5] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death, Blade
[2] IGCD - (SBell), (SBell), (Shad), (Scare), MZero, Neablis
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] dowolf - (MZero), (Death), (plum)
[0] SBell - (Tange), (Scare), (IGCD)
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM, roughly 12 minutes from now!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

VOTALS
[4] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death
[2] IGCD - (SBell), (SBell), (Shad), (Scare), MZero, Neablis
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] dowolf - (MZero), (Death), (plum)
[0] SBell - (Tange), (Scare), (IGCD)
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM, roughly 30 minutes from now!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

One Hour Left Votals:
[4] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death
[1] IGCD - (SBell), (SBell), (Shad), (Scare), MZero
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] dowolf - (MZero), (Death), (plum)
[0] SBell - (Tange), (Scare), (IGCD)
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM, roughly 1 hour from now!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Votals:
[4] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death
[2] IGCD - (SBell), SBell, Shad, (Scare)
[1] dowolf - MZero, (Death), (plum)
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] SBell - (Tange), (Scare), (IGCD)
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM, roughly 2 hours 20 minutes from now!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

All I Want For Christmas Is Votals:
[4] MZero - (dowolf), Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum, Death
[2] IGCD - (SBell), SBell, Shad, (Scare)
[1] dowolf - MZero, (Death), (plum)
[1] SBell - Tange, (Scare), (IGCD)
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM, roughly 3 and a half hours from now!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I vote yes on this trade and its expedition btw if that wasnt clear.

I just dont want to be doing friends favors against the wishes of the rest of the league so I want to make sure everyone is ok with this prior to moving forward.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I can do that!

Puns can you @ everyone in the league to make sure theyre ok with me manually taking over trades and processing this trade immediately. They have until tonight to PM me if they dont since this is a mid season rule change.

Thanks!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Can I do that? All I see when I click on that is vote against trade
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eddv posted...

Corrik posted...

The court isn't anymore a majority now than it was before

This is true.

The myth of Kennedy's Centrism has always puzzled me.

It's just because he didn't hate the gays. That seems to be all people remember.

I don't get it either. Some of us on the left treat him like some sort of hero, and it just doesn't make sense if you look at his positions.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Ashethan posted...

Our country is more divided than it's ever been, and it was divided by Mitch McConnell. (With an assist from Donald Trump and his supporters)

I don't think the divide will ever be healed. I'd say in 50 years time, the country won't exist anymore. At least not as it does in it's current state.

I...uh...I wouldn't go that far.

But civility in politics and true bipartisanship is likely dead for the next decade, at the very least.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Eddv posted...

I stand by my initial analysis. I think the GOP is going to pay a price long term for having stood by Kavanaugh and for no real gain vs withdrawing him and nominating say Amy Barrett.

Collins wouldn't have confirmed Amy Barrett

This is an overall massive win on all fronts

Conservatives have been trying to win a true majority on the court for 60+ years

The court isn't anymore a majority now than it was before.

Like I said before, the only issues where Kavanaugh and Kennedy maybe possibly would differ at all was gay rights and abortion rights. Kennedy voted with the Republican majority on almost every major decision except those two. In the past two years, Kennedy and Roberts were almost identical.

I just do not like Kavanaugh on the bench and would've preferred someone vastly more conservative if I thought the respect of the court wouldn't be damaged in a meaningful way.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

I mean, if McConnell doesn't McConnell and Trump puts forward Gorsuch with Garland on the bench, then yeah I could easily see 60-65 votes yes.

I fear those days are gone now though. I have a hard time imagining you get easy confirmations any more unless you have both the presidency and the senate.

Yep.

The Do-Nothing Congress under Obama followed directly by a President who openly mocks people for being weak and conceding, means the idea of bi-partisanship is fucked, probably until a President running specifically on bringing people together wins by a landslide.

Who knows how long that will take?

I don't see it ever happening. Kasich tried to campaign on that and republicans told him to go kick rocks. Now he's labeled as a RINO even though he's more conservative than Trump. Flake too. Flake got run out of the party and Trump's supporters view him as a traitor and a fake republican based on the fact he sometimes once in a while is critical of Trump and is friends with democrats. That's all it takes to be a RINO in politics now.

Trump would have to be soundly defeated in 2020 for any hope of that brand of Republicanism coming back, and I just don't see it. I think this is where we are now. And we're going to be here for a long time.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

CelesMyUserName posted...

https://twitter.com/AmbassadorRice/status/1048305496732491777

battle of the susans

Dang, I was just wondering if there were any big names in Maine that would draw the sort of excitement needed to even challenge a big name like Collins.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Jakyl25 posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I was going to post earlier that whomever loses the Kavanaugh battle would get a huge boost for the midterms.

Seeing the responses, I believe it even stronger now.

The GOP could have gotten their seat AND taken the Republicans dont care about women card away from the Dems with Barret.

I think theyll hurt bigly for this, but who can really say until November.

Nah. Dont get your hopes up.

The Dems were never taking the Senate, but this is the lowest I've seen their house chances on 538 since they started covering it. So...yeah. You have way more optimism than me. The polling isn't looking great and hasn't for the past week.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I mean, if McConnell doesn't McConnell and Trump puts forward Gorsuch with Garland on the bench, then yeah I could easily see 60-65 votes yes.

I fear those days are gone now though. I have a hard time imagining you get easy confirmations any more unless you have both the presidency and the senate.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eddv posted...

Thing is, I really do think Republicans could have gotten 60+ votes on a pair of justices had they done the process more correctly.

I think there are enough moderates who want a return to normalcy in Senate leadership that they'd have gone along with it short of one of the judges turning out to be a mercurial rapist like they did (woops)

Even if Collins doesn't vote Barrett like Seph says, I would think Heitkamp and Donnelly both do without much hesitation. I don't think they hit 60, but I imagine it is not very dramatic and then you don't have the democratic base fired up even more about this.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

HashtagSEP posted...

That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over

All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol

I don't think there's that much "democratic" support there in that sense. Like, I would be surprised in Heitkamp gained in the polls now since the same thing could be argued there.

Which is a shame because I quite liked Heitkamp and we're never going to get another ND democrat in the Senate. She made the right choice on Kavanaugh in spite of the political advantages that voting yes would have, which is admirable.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Jakyl25 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

Isnt it a huge issue everywhere?

It is actually worst in Alaska by a frightening margin. Definitely an issue everywhere, but it is grotesquely bad in Alaska.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/02/03/opinion/sutter-alaska-rape-list/index.html

These numbers are what I was thinking of earlier, so I'm not sure how much it has changed in four years.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Manchin will win by 15+

Manchin may be the next Byrd in that if he coasts this easily now, that seat is his seat until he dies or retires.

Very disappointed by this vote, but there is absolutely nothing the democrats can do about it.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

The interesting ones were Murkowski and Heitkamp. Thought those two would be yes as well.

Makes me think Murkowski knew he'd get confirmed and took that as reason to appease her base. Sexual assault is a huge issue in Alaska.

I think she walks away from this squeaky clean.

It is definitely a devastating problem in Alaska, particularly amongst the native population where it is higher than any other group in the country if the numbers I read last time I looked into this are still current. That's a very significant part of her base, so she was likely listening to her constituents on the issue.

I don't know how Murkowski votes at 49 for if she's the decider, but I feel like this is what she wanted to do. Same with Manchin. Like I understand that they're both politicians, but this is also just who their history shows them to be.

And yeah, Murkowski is an institution in Alaska and has wide support from even democrats there, so she's likely untouchable. Republicans would be crazy to put forward a primary challenge on here over this, because she'd just run as an independent and crush them again.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

HashtagSEP posted...

"Don't be stupid, SEP, Manchin won't vote it"
"Iunno he's hardcore Trump in his local ads, I think he will"
"You're stupid, SEP"

Hmm.

^^^

Manchin was and has been a yes for a long time, like Collins.

The interesting ones were Murkowski and Heitkamp. Thought those two would be yes as well.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yes what the leaker did was unconscionable. I can't believe they'd take advantage of Dr. Ford in that way. Good thing Collins is standing up to the person who traumatized her life like that!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I can't imagine many people are disappointed by Collins since Manchin was a yes already so unless Flake had another visit from Jimminy Cricket her vote wouldn't matter in the slightest.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

My Votals Bring All The Boys To The Yard:
[4] MZero - dowolf, Scare, IGCD, (Neablis), plum
[2] IGCD - (SBell), SBell, Shad, (Scare)
[1] dowolf - MZero, (Death), (plum)
[1] SBell - Tange, (Scare), (IGCD)
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), (plum)
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM CST tomorrow!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

"His fourth favorite case is Brown vs. The Board of Education!" feels like the legal equivalent of "some of my best friends are black!"
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

This is 100% a yes.

If this is a no she needs some WWE exit music afterwards.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

The cop who shot Laquan McDonald was just convicted of second degree murder.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-laquan-mcdonald-jason-van-dyke-trial-verdict-20181005-story.html
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

And again, it doesn't matter if that's your opinion as he has had an extremely moderate record his entire political career and was elected by running political ads of him shooting up Obama's cap and trade bill with an actual gun.

But at this point I think we can both just imagine the two of us pointing back and forth at each other and shouting nonsense because we have had this exact same debate before.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/1048267399181602816

McConnell had lunch with Collins and Cornyn. That's a pretty big tell.

The mental image of Mitch eating lunch gives me an upset stomach

Makes me think of Frog Fractions

Clearly that man is more turtle than frog.

I for some reason imagine he does almost all of his digestion by holding his food in his mouth until it disintegrates.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I am not getting in this pointless debate again that "it doesn't matter what you vote unless you're the 50th vote for or against something.

I agree with Seph's general assessment of Manchin as being for WV first and Democrats second. This is a very disappointing thing for him to break rank on, though.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Corrik posted...

Seph, he is being confirmed. Stop worrying about it.

This is the most important vote for conservatism in my lifetime. I have to worry.

He's getting confirmed. Manchin makes whatever Collins does irrelevant, and Collins is looking like a yes anyway.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Collins and Manchin are both like 95% yes though so her defection doesn't matter in the long run.

I think Murkowski is probably the most interesting senator we have, based on her electoral history and stances.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Interesting statement from Murkowski about her decision.

https://twitter.com/eliseviebeck/status/1048243317312573440
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Votals Are A Ladder:
[4] MZero - dowolf, Scare, IGCD, Neablis
[2] dowolf - MZero, Death, (plum)
[2] IGCD - (SBell), SBell, Shad, (Scare)
[1] SBell - Tange, (Scare), (IGCD)
[1] Scare - (SBell), (Blade), plum
[1] No Lynch - Viserion
[0] Shad - (Scare)
[0] Death - (Scare)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM CST tomorrow!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

At 450:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77068659
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Dragons (THE LIVING):
1) DoubleTangicide
2) dowolf
3) htaeD
4) IfGodCouldDie
5) masterplum
6) Meow1000
7) MZero11
8) Neablis
9) Obellisk
10) ScareChan
11) Shaduln
12) Viserion

Total Drags (THE DECEASED):
LD1 - red: Varys, TARGARYEN Role Swapper
MKD1 - ben: Barristan Selmy, TARGARYEN Bulletproof Roleblocker
KN1 - Chris: Qyburn, TOWN Protector
KN1 - MI: Jon Snow, TOWN Warg
LD2 - Sheep: Arya Stark, TOWN Vanilla
MKD2 - Harris: Night King, TOWN Dead Empowerer
KD2 - ImGhostWoofWoof: Ghost, TOWN Direwolf
KN2 - Han: Three-Eyed Crow, TOWN Greenseer

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM CST Friday!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Panthera posted...

I understood how this game would work perfectly fine until Corrik made that diagram. Now I have no idea anymore

What don't you get?

Xx
X x
XxX
O
X o XxO
oXxXXX o OOO
XOxoxoxoxoXOOOXoOXOXOXOXOXOOXOIJIOXOIAOIOIJAOJOIAINVIODARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
WHATISHAPPENINGTOME
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

HashtagSEP posted...

But then that suggests that every time a cup gets taken away, they'd have to add a new cup.

Doesn't really sound like a game at all and just "Hey let's drink as much beer as we can"

Which I guess makes sense

I see you have played drinking games before!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Trying to do votals from my phone my have been a mistake. Go with BCT's votals please!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eddv posted...

Don't count Bredesen in TN out just yet.

The MS special could also get weird.

The MS special will not get weird and a Republican will win the run off by 15+ points.

Bredesen could maybe possibly pull it off as he tends to poll within 5, but I really think that race swings to the R closer to election (based on some interesting analysis I read at 538) so I think that race will be close-ish but a fairly safe R victory.

I think the Dems have a real shot in Nevada and Arizona though. It's surprising because of how good a candidate the R's got in Arizona but every poll I've seen so far has Sinema up.

In terms of vulnerable Dems, I'd say Heitkamp is toast, and then it probably goes McCaskill > Nelson > Donnelly > Tester. Manchin is an outside chance too, but he's so much safer than the rest that if he loses its pretty much a doomsday scenario for Dems any way.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

WHERE ARE MY VOTALS!?!
[2] dowolf - Death, plum
[1] Scare - (SBell), Blade
[1] Death - Scare
[1] MZero - dowolf
[1] SBell - Tange
[1] IGCD - (SBell), SBell
[1] No Lynch - Viserion

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! Day ends at 10 PM CST tomorrow!
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/lacaldwelldc/status/1047911475224989701?s=21

Good for Heitkamp.

GOP will gain that seat at least

That makes the Senate virtually impossible for the Dems to win, unless they take every single other close race.

I don't see the Dems winning Tennessee or Texas, so I think it is impossible for them to do it, essentially.

They *could* flip Nevada and Arizona, and *might* hold on to the rest (even though Missouri seems unlikely to me) but with what is a pretty obvious ND loss I don't see the numbers anywhere. 538 has them down to like 25% and the most likely outcome statistically based on current polling is no change.

No change though is huge for Trump because Corkers gone, Flakes gone, and McCain died. Those were 3/5 that ever stood up to Trump in any way at all. Now basically you need a defection from Murkowski and Collins every time for the Dems to stop anything in the Senate.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I mean, it is unlikely they're like "WOO HOO SEXUAL ASSAULT"

It is more likely they buy into the "those libs are making stuff up and are coming after good honest republicans because they hate American and freedom" narrative. Republicans always turn out votes by playing up the whole "DEMS ARE LIARS AND HATE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY" thing, which this fits into for them.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."