Lurker > Master Moltar

Battles begin at midnight UTC on Tuesday, November 27th (4PM Pacific 11/26).
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Link
Mega Man
Cloud Strife
Crono
Solid Snake
Sonic the Hedgehog
Samus Aran
Mario
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77237751
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pick a match.
Do the write-up.
Send to [email protected]

Please add your name to the list below

Link vs. Ganondorf -
Mega Man vs. Pikachu -
Cloud Strife vs. Alucard -
Crono vs. Bowser -
Solid Snake vs. Zelda -
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Auron -
Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart -
Mario vs. Sephiroth -
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

that means less time for guests to forget to do them lmao
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

LeonhartFour posted...

this will be the year Samus finally beats Mario

this but unironically
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

there's one potential noble nine upset that i like so far
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Luigi - 51.00%
Sephiroth - 55.60%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Moltars Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 70.28% vs. Albert Wesker
Round 2 - 64.93% vs. Captain Falcon
Round 3 - 61.37% vs. Amaterasu

Ryu
Round 1 - 68.44% vs. Lloyd Irving
Round 2 - 66.55% vs. Commander Shepard
Round 3 - 65.07% vs. KOS-MOS

Remember Ganondorf/Chun-Li? This should be like the grown-up version of that match. I dont think Ryu threatens Seph, but he should hold up just fine.

Moltars Bracket: Sephiroth

Moltars Prediction: Sephiroth 56%



Oh, youre asking what Im doing here by myself? Are you finally noticing me? Is that what it takes for you to remember me?

...

Maybe its time for the facade to end.

...

Load me.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Sephiroth vs. Ryu

transiences Analysis

This match is hard to rationalize. Seph and Ryu both had confusing starts to the last match and recovered fairly nicely, Ryu moreso than Seph. When you factor in results this contest and the totality of contest history, it's awfully hard to bet against Sephiroth. He's always been on a tier that Ryu can't touch. Ryu is our most consistent upper midcarder to elite dude ever, but Sephiroth is a contest god. A weird god, but still a league above anything Ryu could reasonably do.

But in reality, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. I could totally see Seph putting 60% on Ryu, because that's the kind of thing that Sephiroth does, or for Ryu to legit threaten him early and force a comeback after an hour or so en route to getting 47 or 48%. A legit Ryu win would shock me, but given this contest's results it wouldn't be impossible. It feels weird to write that.

Hey, it's the last match before a much needed writing break! Happy Thanksgiving guys, and may your second bracket be better than your first.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 54.46%

Leonharts Analysis

Whew, last writeup for a week! Ive seen some people hyping up Ryu > Sephiroth this year, but I never saw it and I still havent seen it. Theyve each put up similar percentages in the mid-60s to low-70s every round so far, but I think Sephiroths opponents have just been better than Ryus this year. Id love to be wrong and see Ryu be the first to beat a Noble Niner 1-on-1 for 24 hours, but I dont think hes up to the task this year. I think Ryu will put up a good fight and maybe even contend for the lead a little bit, but much like when he did the same thing against Sonic in 2004, hell gradually fade as the match goes along.

Leonharts Vote: Ryu

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 55.54%

Kleenexs Analysis

This could theoretically be a dangerous match for Sephiroth. Ryu is no scrub, and yadda yadda FF7 yadda yadda. But you know what? I think Seph is going to be fine. Hes actually impressed me the past few rounds, and really does recover nicely from that initial board vote. Ryu is stronger than any opponent Seph has faced so far, but none of Ryus performances have really shouted hey Im going to be Sephiroth to me. Hes still not at Sephiroth-level and nothing this contest has led me to believe that he has a real shot. Itll be close, but I expect Sephiroth to walk away from this one without too many scratches.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 55%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This match has been talked about a bit pre-contest, but mostly just by people blindly looking to see Sephiroth have fallen a ridiculous amount from before, on the background of... I don't even know. I guested in another Sephiroth match this contest and as I said then, in such a crazy contest 2013 was, Sephiroth beating Kirby and Big Boss as he did was a fine result. He also good against Falcon regardless of what people like to admit.

Since the Cloud/Falcon match in 2010 proved to work fine, so let's use the same logic (funny how similar Cloud's 2010 division and Sephiroth's 2018 division is I guess), because Falcon and Ryu are both probably a little bit stronger. In 2010 Cloud almost doubled Ryu. Sephiroth will probably land about 60-40. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Amaterasu is just really good now.

Sephiroth - 60.96%
Ryu - 39.04%

Crew Consensus: Sephiroth perfects Ryu
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half on Luigi
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Luigi
Sephiroth
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

The fact that were not getting a rerun of the 2005 picture is a crime. Historically, Tifa has been stronger than Luigi. She barely squeaked by MMX last round, but I still think MMX is pretty good, so it doesnt actually look like Tifa has lost as much of some of her other FF7 brethren. But Luigi this year has looked like a monster. Im sure there was some SFF going on last round, but 70% on Tail is whew. (Plus if Luigi is a monster, it makes Frog look that much better, so please I need this).

This will probably end pretty close, but I think where Luigi gets a significant advantage is the fact that 1) hes going to destroy Tifa early on, and 2) his Euro vote isnt going to be as abysmal as MMXs. Unless we start rallying on hentai forums again, its probably going to be tough for Tifa to make up all the votes shes going to fall behind in that first hour or so. L is real 2018.

Kleenexs Prediction: Luigi with 53%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

I really think Luigi can and will win this match, despite my sentiments in my Luigi vs. Frog write-up, calling him doomed against the Tifa/X winner with the rather low percentage he wound up scoring. Since then, Ive flipped into thinking that Frog and Magus have largely vindicated Chrono Triggers huge leap in 2015, and that Frog being about on par with Mewtwo is far from inconceivable given that and after Red and Charizards flops. It doesnt help Tifas case that she needed hentai rallies to beat a fellow near elite whos notably weak in the Eastern Hemisphere, not a flaw that Luigi shares. Given all these developments, Im back to putting full confidence in my bracket that has Luigi not just winning the match at hand, but even beating Sephiroth something hell need to win convincingly here to pull off.

Prediction: Luigi wins with 54.22%

Crew Consensus: Luigi comes out on top over Tifa.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Logically, this match seems awfully similar to Zelda/Squall. Maybe not 63/37, but Luigi should probably be the favourite. Luigi/Tifa was close in 05, Nintendo is much better and Square is a little worse.. but yet, I still feel like this one might go the same way. Bowser faced Kirby in 2005 and got 52%... and faced him this year and got 54% despite Kirby having had a much better time since 05. Luigi could win, but I just feel better with Tifa for some reason.

transience's prediction: Tifa with 50.77%

Leonharts Analysis

Ive got Luigi in my bracket here and felt good about it, even as I was high on Tifa beating Mewtwo and Mega Man X. Ive felt that hes the second strongest Mario character for a while. Mario characters in particular have looked pretty strong this year, too, as were seeing Bowser polish off Kirby and Alucard making Peach retroactively seem very solid. If Luigi really is the second strongest Mario character, he probably should win this based on what weve seen from Square this year.

Yet Tifa (and Vivi, too) has been defying the trends this year. As every other notable Final Fantasy character seems to fall off, Tifa holds strong as a near elite (unless Mewtwo and Mega Man X are even bigger frauds than I thought!). As a comparison point, Im trying to think of who Id favor in a Luigi/Ganondorf match and a Tifa/Vivi match, and I feel more confident in saying Tifa would win her matchup.

The one element that gives me pause here is that Luigi/Frog result. Im not sure how to take it. It could mean that Luigis just not as strong as I thought, or it could mean that Chrono Trigger is just much stronger this year, but theres no way to know right now. I feel like there are fewer question marks about Tifas strength level than Luigis at the moment, but I still think his potential ceiling is higher, so Ill stick with him here (although why I would expect my bracket to be right when Ive gotten a grand total of 1 match correct this round so far is beyond me). Plus, we just saw a Mario character pull off a nonsensical result, so why not another!

Leonharts Vote: Luigi

Leonharts Prediction: Luigi with 50.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Luigi vs. Tifa Lockheart

Moltars Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth
Round 2 - 61.63% vs. Frog
Round 3 - 69.65% vs. Miles Tails Prower

Tifa
Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno
Round 2 - 58.10% vs. Mewtwo
Round 3 - 50.18% vs. Mega Man X

Man, now this one is just as tough as Tifa/X was to me, and knowing how close that one turned out makes me think Im on to something here.

Before the contest, I had X beating both Tifa and Luigi. I actually thought Tifa would be Xs toughest challenge, as I felt she would still hold up pretty well in strength after all these years. Both of them are in that upper near-elite category for me.

Luigi though? I counted him out. Between him, Bowser, and Yoshi, I thought of him as the weakest. In terms of near-elites, I thought he was towards the bottom. He had already lost to Tifa way back in 2005. I struggled more with Tifa/X than the winner of that facing Luigi.

Well...I think I was wrong about that. Luigi has looked very good this contest. His performances in Round 1 and 3 are self-explanatory, and his number on Frog also looks very good if you think CT is stronger overall (and looking at Magus too, that seems to be the case).

After seeing the entire contest play out, Im thinking I was wrong about Luigi. Tifa and X are essentially equals, and do appear to be as strong as I figured they would be. The thing is, in this Nintendo boost year, I think someone thats pure Nintendo and pure Mario like Luigi has the slight edge here. History may repeat itself and Tifa beats Luigi again, but that was close last time, and this environment seems much more friendly to Luigi now.

Moltars Bracket: MMX (sad)

Moltars Prediction: Luigi 52%

transiences Analysis

You'd think by round 4 that I'd have a great handle on these two, but I just don't! I'm gonna start with crunching some numbers. Let's start with Luigi. It's hard to know what to do with the Tails match, but if it's legit, he should beat Tifa without too much trouble. Luigi's clearest metric is probably Frog. Frog is probably kinda close to Magus? I guess? Auron extrapolates out to 57% on Magus, and Luigi did 62% on Frog. Tifa's better than Auron by a few percentage points, probably. That makes them seem about equal, but there's a lot of guesswork there. I'm also more likely to give CT characters the benefit of the doubt this year because of its awesome 2015 performance.. but then, Geralt's currently working Auron down to a 53%ish win. Blah!

Tifa probably should have lost to MMX. That's not sour grapes or anything, it's just true - the rallying actually pushed the match out of being a great photo finish to being a fairly clear win in the last 30 minutes for Tifa. Match of the contest for sure, but it could have been better than that. Tifa's best clear performance has been the 58% on Mewtwo, which after Bowser's surprise win over Kirby looks pretty good. Then again, I don't trust Kirby. The numbers, they fail me here!

Luigi/Tifa is a fairly famous 2005 match, where Tifa put up a Cloud-like performance on Vyse and had us all lose our minds. It was kinda similar to how Zelda looks like Link this year (only Zelda's doing it to former top 15 characters). Anyway, after Vyse, Luigi came along post-Boost, put up 47% on her and brought everyone back down to earth as the Noble Nine lived another year.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7352

Our boy Alucard did it and beat Red in a close, but not all that close, match. Since Red held up alright here, it really does seem like this is pretty much Alucard boosting in strength, and some of the stronger characters from previous contests like Sora and Big Boss falling to the midcard.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7353

Dang and I thought Zelda/Squall was shocking, but this caught me more off guard. Bowser, despite looking worse than Kirby all contest, has no problem beating the puffball out of the contest for a second time. This seems to be a case of the Nintendo hierarchy at play. Weve seen Mario characters over-perform on other Nintendo characters before, so its not a new phenomenon. Maybe it could also be one of those rare cases of rSFF? Or maybe Bowsers just been stronger all along and we underestimated 2B, Charizard, and that entire top half of the division while Kirby's half was even weaker than we thought.

Crew Predictions: 102/116

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 100
transience: 98
Kleenex: 94
Leonhart: 93
Guest: 89

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Alucard.

Kleenex: 28
transience: 27
Guest: 26 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII)
Moltar: 21
Leonhart: 17
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Miss me?





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Get.
Out.
Of.
My.
Thread.

Get out of my thread before I do what I know is best for you.
Get out of my thread before I listen to everything she said to me.
Get out of my thread before I show you how much I love you.
Get out of my thread before I finish writing this intro.

But a topic is never actually finished.
It just stops posting.


...

Delete me.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Geralt has been one of more fun characters to watch this contest. He got the benefit of having a weaker 8-pack to get through, but his matches were exciting to watch, and its awesome to see a recent(ish) Western character do well(ish) for a change. I dont think he has a hope of pulling off another miracle here, Auron is a number of steps up from Geralts previous competition, and Auron has looked pretty good himself through three rounds. Maybe Geralt can put up a 2B-like performance and still look shockingly good against a near-elite, but he aint winning.

Kleenexs Prediction: Auron with 58%

Guests Analysis - Ranticoot

Geralt has been one of my favorite parts of this contest. All his matches have been great, he's presented good strength despite being of a character type that's otherwise been flopping horribly this contest (The Witcher books have existed since the 90s, maybe that's his secret), he's the only character who had RallyFEAR who has been able to do things without resorting to that, and he actually made it here in what might've been the hardest eight pack to predict pre-contest. I think he and 2B validated their 1 seeds to some degree, and because of that they're two of the most uplifting stories of this contest.

Auron hasn't looked too terrible even with all of Square's struggles. Tifa and Vivi are basically the only ones that look completely good, and I think he's put up among the best shows off the ones after them simply by not having fallen off a cliff. I'd probably take him over Squall right now. He has underperformed but he hasn't really done so to the point I think any match he's in is more or less debateable than before. He really shouldn't lose here, and he definitely has had one of the least exciting paths of our elite characters this contest.

I'm 70% sure Sub-Zero would beat Geralt, and I definitely wouldn't take anyone Geralt beat over Sub-Zero, so Subby's % is about his ceiling here; matching Sub-Zero's percentage would be great for Geralt. Going even higher would be even better, but a win is more or less out of the question unless he like, gets a big boost from the momentum of being a good performing, not typically GameFAQs-like character, and I'm not sure if that'll work since we finally have examples of Square guys pulling out their stuff when it matters the most.

Ranticoot's prediction - Auron with 58.62%

Crew Consensus: A Square rep finally wins a division.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Geralt vs. Auron

Moltars Analysis

Geralt
Round 1 - 56.03% vs. Rosalina
Round 2 - 52.19% vs. Simon Belmont
Round 3 - 50.88% vs. Bayonetta

Auron
Round 1 - 65.44% vs. Lucina
Round 2 - 55.80% vs. Vincent Valentine
Round 3 - 56.71% vs. Sub-Zero

This match looks like a lock for Auron, but its hard to say where Geralt will end up. Is he up there with Vincent and Subby? Maybe, but then that puts a lot of characters in Geralt's 8-pack close behind.

The top half of the division looks like one big midcard hell, and going off how the contest has been so far, I can buy it. Youve got a lot of Smash/Nintendo and icons in there, two groups that have boosted in strength. Still, Auron (along with a good portion of his path) seem to be above that group, so Im going to predict as such.

Moltars Bracket: Auron

Moltars Prediction: Auron 58%

transiences Analysis

Doesn't it feel like Geralt will start out losing only to win this 51-49, the most boring 51-49 ever? I feel like I've seen that 3 rounds in a row. Auron's on another level from those bums, but this is also a dude who couldn't break 57% on Sub. Does Sub beat Geralt? I'd like to say yes? I mean, nobody in the top half of division 6 was really any good. That was a master class of bracketmaking.

Auron's performances have been passable and you can make excuses for them, but when you start seeing the Squalls and Yunas of the world, it's hard to be too optimistic on him. Yeah, he should beat Geralt, and he might even go big if that entire eightpack is just a bunch of frauds. But I just don't have a good feeling here. I'll go low since every damn r4 match is destined to be in the low to mid 50s.

transience's prediction: Auron with 53.54%

Leonharts Analysis

The paths these two took to get here couldnt be more different. Geralt had to fight and claw for every victory, overcoming his slow starts with a strong day vote to eventually overpower three different Smash characters. Auron has been able to lazily idle along, and it almost feels like he hasnt been trying that hard because hes been underperforming relative to expectations nearly every match. I think that doesnt speak well for Aurons chances in the next bracket, but I dont think hell drop the ball here, at least.

Leonharts Vote: Auron

Leonharts Prediction: Auron with 57.48%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Zelda - 64.60%
Auron - 57.70%

Tifa Lockheart - 50.20%
Sephiroth - 56.60%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Leonharts Analysis

This is the most open and shut match of the round. Zelda has been torching everything in her path, while Aerith has been allowing Waluigi and Captain Toad to put up 40%+ on her. The only potentially interesting thing worth keeping an eye on here is if Aerith can outdo Squalls percentage and add one final indignity to his scorched remains. Im going to say she doesnt, but I am fully ready to be disappointed!

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 65.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

Theres only one thing interesting about this match, and thats to see if Zelda outdoes her percentage on Squall here. Im still shook from that last round. By all conventional wisdom, Aeris should absolutely be weaker than Squall. For some strange reason, I feel like she might hold up a little bit better. I dont have a convincing argument for it, its more of a gut thing. This could also turn into a 70% beatdown, though. Maybe she can put the fear in Snake if that happens.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 62%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

This a match we've seen before in 2006, where Zelda fell just short of 57% on Aerith. Since then, Aerith has possibly gotten weaker (but only very slightly at best), and Zelda has looked like a Noble Nine breaker this contest. Despite Squall looking bad against Zelda, I would still take him over Aerith in a direct match. So this already means Zelda should put up a higher percentage compared to last round.

Zelda got close to 71% on The Boss and I would probably take Fox over The Boss, so I'm expecting something like 70% on Fox (before SFF). Then Fox kept Aerith under 53% on him, so this means Zelda could get close to 70% on Aerith. I'm thinking this match falls somewhere in the 66% to 70% range, unless maybe Aerith could possibly channel Tifa's ability to overperform on female characters, even in a losing effort.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Zelda

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Zelda - 67.35%

Crew Consensus: zelda she come to town
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Zelda vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Round 2 - 70.70% vs. The Boss
Round 3 - 63.32% vs. Squall Leonhart

Aerith
Round 1 - 57.43% vs. Waluigi
Round 2 - 59.99% vs. Captain Toad
Round 3 - 52.70% vs. Fox McCloud

Is...is Aerith stronger than Squall now? We might find out in this match. Aerith has been knocking down Nintendo all contest so far, but now she stands against the beast that is Zelda.

Its highly unlikely that Zelda is around Fox in strength, and yet can beat Squall with over 63%. Zelda took this match already back in 2006 with 57%. That sounded about right before this contest, but since then, Zelda has been on a tear. Sure, all her opponents have good reason to decline in strength, but Zelda has good reason to be a lot stronger with BotW in her pocket as well.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 65%

transiences Analysis

This is a dozen year old rematch of a match that happened on the day FF12 released. Aerith still got crushed.

Zelda's going to win here and nobody disputes that. The question is, is she going for 65% based on her performance against Squall, or is it something more reasonable? Aerith struggled to beat Waluigi, let alone Fox, so obviously she's not going to hang with an upper elite in Zelda who just demolished a superior character who has bodied her in the past. But... I don't know. Squall looked *off* this year, from the first minute of facing Hat Kid.

Something I've noticed over the years -- some years, characters (or games) just "have it" and sometimes they're just holding on to their past legacies and coming up with possible excuses as they disappoint round after round until they get embarrassed. Like, take Crono back in 07 or 08, whatever year that was when he lost to Vincent. Crono just looked gimped those years, dying off after 3-4 hours, like he was just too old to matter to anyone but the most diehard contest followers. Then take Chrono Trigger in 2015, where it just flew out of the gate and demolished anything and everything in its path. Sometimes you have it. Squall did not.

So what about Aerith? I actually have been kinda impressed by her, mostly due to my rock bottom expectations. She managed to beat Fox. With how Squall looked, I'm honestly not sure if he could have done that. Sora might not have been able to either. It's totally possible here that Zelda doubles her on her way to blasting away Solid Snake, but I think I want to give Aerith some credit and say that maybe she can hold it to 60%. Sucks to be you, Squall.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 60.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7350

Ganondorf pretty much does as expected against Vivi, which only continues to highlight how strange that Chun-Li match was at the time. Like stated before, the favorites to get to the divisional finals were always Ganon and Vivi, and when Round 3 went as expected for both of them, it became clear that Ganon was just naturally stronger and would win in the direct match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7351

Once again, previous matches foretold this result. Pikachu looked stronger throughout the contest, and sure enough, had no problem with Zero. He did better on Zero than Yoshi as well. Pikachu's not looking like a world-beater, but definitely seems to be one of the elite characters now.

Crew Predictions: 101/114

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 99
transience: 97
Kleenex: 93
Leonhart: 92
Guest: 88

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Ganondorf, and Moltar and transience get the point for Pikachu.

Kleenex: 28
Guest: 26 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII)
transience: 26
Moltar: 21
Leonhart: 17
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Leonharts Analysis

Of all the characters who have hulked up this contest, none of them surprises me more than Alucard. Theres at least an explanation for Nintendo being stronger this contest, but Alucard? I dont get it. Is he getting some sort of nostalgia boost like Chrono Trigger did? Who knows! Either way, I think hes going to expose Red pretty badly here. He didnt get here on his strength. He got here because his opponents sucked more than he did. Alucards going to make it clear that 2010 Red was reality and 2013 Red was the illusion.

Leonharts Vote: Alucard

Leonharts Prediction: Alucard with 57.98%

Kleenexs Analysis

This has definitely been a breakout performance for Alucard. Hes always been in that midcarder status, but has had some hiccups over the years. This year, he finally put it all together (with a favorable bracket position, to be fair) and is not poised to make it to the legends bracket. Only some dumb Pokemon trainer stands in his way.

I think Alucard actually has this one in the bag. MGSs standing this year is still a bit in flux, but Red did not look good against Big Boss last round. Maybe Red, Big Boss and Sora are all roughly the same strength now, I dunno, but something about how that 8-pack went down doesnt pass the smell test for me. Not trying to question the legitimacy of the result, just that Id take what they say about the characters that participated with a grain of salt. Alucard has put away all of his opponents with relative ease, and I actually expect him to do the same to Red today.

Kleenexs Prediction: Alucard with 56%

Guests Analysis - War

There is one very simple reason why Red cannot win this match.

It is my buddy Cecil.

Unless this is Kefka's greatest trick, which is not impossible because it's Kefka, Cecil should not beat him.

I can buy into a lot of wacky upsets.

I can buy into the possibility that Peach would be competitive with Sora and Big Boss.

Cecil is not beating Kefka.

If Cecil beats Kefka, then Cecil probably beats Charizard. I am also not buying into this.

This is why Alucard has to win, and he has to win by a lot because every point closer to Kefka feels completely off.

So let's just roll with Peach very slightly above Red, and if Alucard and Aloy switched places we'd be looking at Peach vs. Cloud.

This division was really dumb. Damn you Cecil, and damn you laughing clown.

Alucard with 56.82%

Crew Consensus: Alucard finally wins a division.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Alucard

Moltars Analysis

Red
Round 1 - 75.32% vs. Neptune
Round 2 - 50.90% vs. Sora
Round 3 - 52.18% vs. Big Boss

Alucard
Round 1 - 56.81% vs. Princess Peach
Round 2 - 59.62% vs. Yuna
Round 3 - 59.44% vs. Kefka

If this match is about momentum, then youve got to give it to Alucard. Nintendo? Square? He dont care. Hes put up three good performances so far against pretty respectable competition. A lot of people have jumped on the bandwagon and think hes going to win the division now.

Red could be legit? I mean youd have to assume that Sora is still really strong, Big Boss is also still really strong, ignore all the other bad KH and MGS performances, think that Crash is like an upper-midcarder, and probably some other things that Im forgetting about.

Ill take the former there.

As foretold by The Plan.

Moltars Bracket: Sora (believe)

Moltars Prediction: Alucard 53%

transiences Analysis

Pre-contest, the top half of the bracket looked clearly stronger than the bottom. The main debate was Sora/Big Boss, which in my mind was a repeat of Snake/Sora from 2005 which was one of the great beatdowns of all time thanks to probably the biggest pic advantage in contest history. It would come down to what picture Big Boss would get, but by round 3 we're usually making pictures so it would likely be something to play for. (contrary to most, I actually really like that we stuck with the same pictures for 3 rounds, the same ones we made brackets around. I grow exhausted of people complaining about pictures every day for a month.)

Well, Sora sucked, which was somewhat predictable, and Big Boss sucked, which was also reasonably predictable. In that case, Red has a shot at things. Pokemon went wild the last contest and I think like 4 Pokemon were in the final 9? If that were to happen again, I could see Red upending everyone. However, that didn't happen this time -- Pikachu looks strong, but Charizard bombed against Terra and Mewtwo went down easy to Tifa. I don't trust human Pokemon characters and when you get an extrapolated 55% on Crash, I have a hard time believing.

Even with seemingly everyone sucking from the top half of the division, I would probably still pick them over the bottom half, where you have a lot of perennial underachievers. Kefka can go down to anyone. It's hard to believe in L-Block in 2018. Alucard has a ton of contest bombs to his name. Nobody really likes Peach. Yuna's kind of aggressively average.

But here comes Alucard, impressing every round. I believed in him over Peach, but it was more about Peach than Alucard. He did well, but he didn't shock me. But then he demolished Yuna and put Kefka down in much the same way. Turns out, Peach was actually his toughest comp so far, and Alucard beat her harder than Red would beat Crash. Alucard looks very clearly stronger than Big Boss so far and while it's always a little tough to gauge Red, I don't think he's significantly above someone like Peach. Even his little bro contest wise, Simon, looked pretty good. I think Alucard takes this one, and he might take it easily. It's a shocking result from a shocking division where everyone just kind of sucks. Everyone but Alucard.

transience's prediction: Alucard with 53.55%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7346

In what seems like an easy match for him to do well in, Luigi puts away Tails with nearly 70%. Beating up on Chief and Drake, who were gonna be weak in this anti-western GameFAQs environment, didn't make Tails any stronger than he seemed to be after all these years. Luigi needed a strong win going into the division finals (even though he's looked fine all contest before this), and I think this counts as one.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7347

Two characters that are pretty much dead even went 50/50 for the entire day in what will go down as a legendary match in these contests. Tifa barely captured victory in the end thanks to a rally from...

...

...

WHAT

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7348

Seph doesn't look too great against Ammy. After what looked to be a good performance on Falcon last round, and after seeing Amaterasu 55/45 Lara Croft, it seemed like Sephiroth could have a better showing. Ammy is pretty legit though, and it makes sense for Lara to look better this year too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7349

Ryu does fine against KOS-MOS. Not much to say here other than I don't think many would have taken her over Shepard pre-contest.

Crew Predictions: 99/112

Next Round Thoughts: Luigi/Tifa is definitely going to get some talk as there's a good case for both sides. Seph/Ryu looks like Seph's match to lose, but the upset potential is definitely there.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 97
transience: 95
Kleenex: 91
Leonhart: 91
Guest: 86

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Luigi, TsunamiXXVIII gets the point for Tifa, SuperNiceDog gets the point for Sephiroth, and Kleenex get the point for Ryu.

Kleenex: 27
Guest: 26 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII)
transience: 25
Moltar: 19
Leonhart: 17
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Hallelujah, were finally down to two matches a day. Nearly every match in round 4 has the potential to be fairly interesting, minus divisions 5 and 6 probably. To start out weve got a classic Zelda vs. Final Fantasy match with two guys who should probably be at similar strengths at this point. Depending at which point during the contest you asked me, I would have called either one of these two the favorite to make it out of the division. Ganon definitely had what seemed to be a hiccup in round 2, but recovered very nicely against Dante. And those round 3 matches are what are tipping the scales in Ganondorfs favor for me. Im still not really sure what the deal is with DK this year, but if you want to make a case for Vivi winning this match, you also have to accept that fact that youre putting DK over Dante. Thats not something I can really wrap my head around, so Ive got my money on the dorf. Im not going to be surprised if Vivi upsets here, but Ill definitely be appalled at the implications.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ganondorf with 52%

Guests Analysis - Bane_of_Despair

The divisional finals kick off with the best boyo Vivi vs the mighty Ganondorf. Well it's gonna be in every other write-up (right?), so you KNOW I have to reference the FUCKING FANTASTIC day in history of Vivi beating Mario and Ganondorf in 2013. Probably still my favorite I've witnessed. Vivi is one of my favorite characters just in general, so seeing something absolutely insane like that happen was glorious. Anyway, new year, new contest, new 1v1 and not 3-way. Alas, time moves on. But I will always remember it for my boy.

I picked Ganondorf to win this in my bracket, I'm still feeling like Ganondorf is gonna take this, but Vivi has been doing pretty fair for himself amidst all the Final Fantasy crumblings around him. He took down Donkey Kong who had people SHOOK when taking down the once well-to-do Leon S Kennedy. Unfortunately that's about all that's been somewhat impressive. His other two opponents have been Aya Brea and Yu Narukami and while he managed roughly 75% on both of them, neither of those are exactly heavy hitters in a contest setting. So has Vivi been more graced with an easy path to this point rather than having actual power? There's an argument to be made, but Vivi is Vivi and he is still fairly (and for great reason) beloved. So there's something there.

Looking at Ganondorf, I'd say his path to get to this point was tougher than Vivi's. Sure his round 1 was against Neku Sakuraba, but a round 2 against Chun-Li and round 3 against Dante would make up for it. Not that Chun-Li is POWERFUL, but I'd take her over Aya Brea and Yu Narukami easily. And Dante, well obviously Dante has a base amount of strength. Has it faded a bit this year? Maybe, but he's still someone.

This could be a fairly close match, but my gut still tells me Ganondorf has this. I'd love to be wrong! My bracket is already done so who better to capitalize on that than Vivi? I'd love to see another underdog victory come out for him, and this should be easier than beating Mario, even in a 3-way! But I dunno.

Winner in my heart: Vivi

Ganondorf with 55.34%

Crew Consensus: Ganondorf moves on to have a competitive showing against his opponent in the Legends bracket.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4: Division Finals Ganondorf vs. Vivi

Moltars Analysis

Ganondorf
Round 1 - 78.60% vs. Neku Sakuraba
Round 2 - 58.91% vs. Chun-Li
Round 3 - 56.40% vs. Dante

Vivi
Round 1 - 74.89% vs. Yu Narukami
Round 2 - 75.45% vs. Aya Brea
Round 3 - 54.98% vs. Donkey Kong

56% on Dante or 55% on DK, sounds like someone is in trouble here.

Pre-contest, these two were the favorites to reach this far in the division. There was a bit of doubt in Round 2 when Ganon underperformed against Chun-Li, but he turned that around by nearly beating Dante by the same amount.

Vivi has looked good, and even put down a raging Kong along the way, but the thing is that he needed to look better than good to win this match. If he was over-performing everywhere like Zelda or Kirby, then Id give him a shot here. Good showings just mean he isnt going to get stomped by Ganon here.

Moltars Bracket: Ganondorf

Moltars Prediction: Ganondorf 52%

transiences Analysis

I'm having a hard time reconciling Vivi in the context of all these other Square guys. It's like he faced Squall in 2013 and somehow switched contest bodies with him. Suddenly, Squall/Zelda looks more like Vivi/Zelda from 2005 (a match I most definitely got wrong -- ah, those distant pre-Boost days).

But seriously, DK rocked his fourpack quite impressively and Vivi basically treated him like nothing had changed. I have a really hard time thinking that DK didn't look better this year, especially when comparing Tidus to some of those Vivi/Tidus fourway matches. Vivi looks pretty legit.

..but unless we get some Vivi/Mario weirdness here, he's not matching up with Ganon. I mean, did you see Zelda the other day? I think you can argue that Zelda's legit better than Ganon now, but Ganon's going to boost too. He beat Dante pretty convincingly. The only weird one is that Chun Li match. If we see that Ganon again, and this site is really fond of the little black mage, then maybe this is a fight. But in reality, this shouldn't be all that close. Vivi is maybe on Dante's level?

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 56.88%

Leonharts Analysis

I imagine Ganondorf is the heavy favorite at this point, but I think Vivi still has a chance. Zelda has looked flat out stronger than Ganondorf each round, so I dont look at the Squall result as proof hell win. Id take Vivi over Dante, too. Heck, I might take DK over Dante at this point, which puts Vivi within striking distance. At the very least, I expect him to put up a good fight. Final Fantasy is going to be poorly represented in the next part of the contest if they dont step up here!

Leonharts Vote: Vivi

Leonharts Prediction: Vivi with 51.61%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

*wakes up, checks poll*

...



(what someone had to be different)
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Ganondorf - 51.90%
Pikachu - 56.80%
Alucard - 53.30%
Kirby - 53.70%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half parlay on Ganondorf and PIkachu
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Ganondorf
Pikachu
Alucard
Kirby
Zelda
Auron
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Thanks for that, Luster.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7342

'well then' Squall might have shown signs of weakness against Garrus, but he didn't look "37% on Zelda" bad. Zelda had already been one of the stars of the contest before this match, but she blew away all expectations as she put up another Noble Nine level performance. This time it was against someone we know is very legit too!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7343

Turns out Fox isn't so far away from Waluigi and Toad after all. It appears that while the floor for these lower and mid-tier Nintendo characters is definitely higher, their ceiling is still at the midcard level.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7344

Pretty much the same sentiments as above. Rosalina, Simon, and Bayonetta aren't too far away from each other through Geralt. These four seem like a slightly weaker version of the Aerith/Fox/Waluigi/Toad stuff from above.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7345

The most expected result of the day. Sub-Zero does a little better than his past performance against Auron, which is in line with what we've seen from the contest so far.

Crew Predictions: 96/108

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda beat Aerith before, and it looks like its going to be even uglier this time around. Auron should be outside of Geralt's range, but maybe he can surprise.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 94
transience: 92
Kleenex: 88
Leonhart: 87
Guest: 82

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Zelda, paulg235 gets the point for Geralt, and Kleenex get the point for Auron.

Kleenex: 26
transience: 25
Guest: 24 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (3), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235)
Moltar: 18
Leonhart: 17
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

huh? The damn things broken? Okay, yeah, right, 2010 was the year Tifa somehow managed to completely avoid being SFFd by Sephiroth, so her number is unusually high. Okay, fine, well use 2013 numbers What? Them too? I know X was trapped behind Draven, but isnt that what adjusted X-Stats are for? Should I use Mega Mans number?

not even 51%? Are you kidding me? And even closer in 2010? Tifa you monster! The only year in which I can pull out a number that seems to fit with my preconceptions is 2008, a year that I know full well Tifa should be underrated in because she got stuck with Sephiroth right away. Putting up a good number on a stronger character from your game 1v1 is one matter; not getting SFFed in a multiway is quite another. So thenshould I consider the possibility that my theory that Mega Man X is at least Mega Mans equal (and theres a good reason to think hed be even more powerful, a little thing called SNESFear) doesnt matter? 2006 is another year where Tifa straight-up finished ahead of Mega Man bah, now the page is literally broken. Damnit, Pikachu, whyd you have to only get 54.8% on Yoshi? Although Yoshi also finished ahead of Tifa even in 2010 (thanks Missingno), so maybe asking Pikachu to smash Mega Man so hard that he finishes below Yoshi isnt so unreasonable!

Tifa Lockhart with 51.84%

Crew Consensus: Been a while since a 3-2 split, and this one favors MMX.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

I will admit that Sephiroth and Tifa looked a lot better in their matches last round than I expected them too. Maybe FF7 isnt that bad after all, even if they still get weighed down by that abysmal early vote. X has also looked extremely good through the first two rounds, though. Its unfortunate that a lot of MMXs results have been marred by SFF and rallies to we still dont have a great idea of where he falls, but I really dont think hes that far off from OG Mega Man. Hes probably also in the running for #10 on the site if you ask me. Thats something I dont think Tifa is going to be capable of beating, even if she should still end up looking all right by the end of things.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man X with 54%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Watching my last analysis wind up being totally off base right nowbut this time Ive got it for sure! Tifa lookedmaybe a tad off in Round 1, only getting 73% on Geno, but rebounded nicely with a 58-42 win over Mewtwo. I know everyone pointed at that match as Mewtwo being a fraud, but thats absolutely ridiculous. 2013 Mewtwo was a product of rallies anyway, and 42% on Tifa really doesnt seem that far from what youd expect from Mewtwos early-round results. The biggest problem with judging this, however, is that for someone whose only loss to a non-Noble Niner was in a fourway with one of the two Noble Niners from her game, she hasnt exactly faced that many Noble Niners! This is, in fact, only her sixth contest, and in the previous five, both Sephiroth and Samus have brought her down twice. Still, it seems odd to think that even though shes faced Sephiroth, a Noble Niner from her own game, in a 1v1 before, her worst 1v1 percentage came against the weakest Noble Niner, Sonic.

So why all the talk about Noble Niners? Because theres every indication that Mega Man X essentially is one! We dont have as much data on him and sadly he faced Draven early last contest and therefore has even fewer valid data points than he should, but it definitely seems plausibleespecially since their lone common 1v1 opponent is Link himself! And X actually got the slightly better percentage on Link, in a year when Links most recent game wasnt the hated Wind Waker. Whats that? 2004 Link is thought to be the strongest Link ever? Feh, hardly. 2004 Link simply lacked for significant non-SFF matches. Outside of actually losing to him in 2003, thats Links worst year against Cloud, and you cant chalk that up to FFVII weakening because Sephiroth managed to do better against Link in 2005 than he did in 2002 even as Cloud was doing worse against Link than in 2003 or 2004. Also, I seem to remember that 2010 Link is literally the only character to ever break 70% on a Noble Niner in a 1v1. Lets just plug in the X-Stat calculator
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X

Moltars Analysis

Tifa
Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno
Round 2 - 58.10% vs. Mewtwo

Mega Man X
Round 1 - 80.65% vs. Isabelle
Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Revolver Ocelot

hmmm

Both characters have looked good so far. Tifa is one of the few Square characters that still looks dominant in todays less-biased to Square landscape. MMX has always been strong and continues to look strong with two big performances.

So who wins this one? Well, 58% on Mewtwo looked pretty good since thats a little better than what Bowser got on Charizard. 68% on Ocelot is also pretty good, and thats a little worse than what Zelda got on The Boss. Is MMX up there with Zelda? Is MMX stronger than Bowser?

I dunno. In fact, who you side on in this match depends on how strong you think MMX is. Tifa is pretty safely at that near-elite level. MMX might also be there, or he might be higher, or he might be lower. I think hell be at that same level as Tifa, but slightly higher.

Moltars Bracket: MMX

Moltars Prediction: MMX 51%

transiences Analysis

This should be good! There's a lot you can say here, but we probably can't start without mentioning what's currently happening. Aerith is struggling with a third-rate Nintendo guy in Fox, Auron can't get to 60% on Sub-Zero and Squall is getting OBLITERATED. We don't need to recount the whole contest for Square - it's almost like 2002 all over again, back before Kingdom Hearts happened.

Where does that leave Tifa? She's always been the odd one out, the one that thrives even when others do not. She's up against X, which.. it's hard to say what X is. Is X a legit character that can stand on his own against real comp, or is he the cloniest clone that's ever cloned? If people view X properly then I think he's among the strongest characters in the baby bracket, capable of beating Tifa and Luigi. But if he's seen as a lesser Mega Man, something more akin to Zero, then Tifa can wipe him out.

Going off of performances, Tifa looks to be about where Bowser landed - she put up about the same percentage on Mewtwo as Bowser did on Charizard. And man, Charizard sucked. Maybe Tifa's actually better, especially considering where 2B is. Hard to say. Meanwhile, X's performance on Ocelot was pretty strong, maybe a liiiiiiiiiiiiitttle bit better than Tifa, and he's basically a second party Nintendo character. He might not be in Smash himself, but he may as well be Mega Man here, just a lighter version of MM. I'm gonna back the proven icon over Tifa, but I could totally see Tifa blowing him up if people see him as a false prophet for real-ass Mega Man (as he should be). I could also see Tifa threatening Mega Man proper, even in a weird anti-Square environment, because Mega Man feels like he could fall off at any minute. Not betting on that though.

transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 52.05%

Leonharts Analysis

This is a big test for both characters to prove their worth. Ive thought really highly of Tifa for a long time. With Squall flopping against Zelda, I think its possible shes the strongest non-Noble Nine Square character now. Ive always been a little skeptical of people who have called for Mega Man X to essentially be a proxy for Mega Man. His performances havent really backed that up, in my opinion, and people have been able to claim SFF or LFF to excuse his underperformances up until now. Either way, were about to find out whos the real deal or not. This might be the biggest match of this bracket.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Tifa Lockhart with 52.87%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Luigi vs. Miles Tails Prower

Moltars Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth
Round 2 - 61.63% vs. Frog

Tails
Round 1 - 56.73% vs. Nathan Drake
Round 2 - 55.49% vs. Master Chief

battle of the sidekicks

Tails did well to get this far, but this is where his road ends. The only debatable thing here is if Tails is going to end up doing better than Frog on Luigi.

Im going to guess...no. In fact this could end up looking pretty bad for Tails. Usually he ends up avoiding Nintendo or other really recognizable and popular characters, but now hes running head-first into Marios brother. If he under-performs, I wouldnt be surprised.

Moltars Bracket: Luigi

Moltars Prediction: Luigi 67%

transiences Analysis

Everyone's probably going to make a Mario/Sonic AT LAST joke here, right? This is the babiest of baby versions of that hyped matchup. At least Sonic has 'tude going for him; Tails has, um, that little helicopter tail thing that just looks kinda dumb. If Luigi is a clone of Mario, that's still better than a tagalong like Tails.

Anyway, Luigi probably looks as good as ever here - Tails is just a lesser Luigi and I doubt many people actually like Tails. Historically he's gotten fed to bigger icons and well-known characters; this year he got a bunch of PS3 and Xbox bums that don't really jive with this website. Put him against maybe the biggest icon of the baby bracket and he goes down pretty easy. I doubt he looks better than Frog.

transience's prediction: Luigi with 65.79%

Leonharts Analysis

Whew, last day of four writeups per day! Running short on time so Im gonna rush through these today. Thankfully, you dont need to say much about most of them! Tails has done well to get this far for the first time, but hes probably not any stronger than Frog, so Id say 40% is out of reach. People have talked about Luigi applying some SFF here, which I dont totally buy. Im always skeptical to call for SFF when theres not a direct relationship between the two. Luigi shouldnt really need it to score a big number anyway.

Leonharts Vote: Luigi

Leonharts Prediction: Luigi with 66.11%

Kleenexs Analysis

Not a ton to say here. Luigi didnt completely squash Frog last round, but he did fine and Tails was never really going to compete here. Should be a routine win. The other match in this division is far more interesting.

Kleenexs Prediction: Luigi with 65%

Guests Analysis - Xeybozn

We've never seen Mario vs.Sonic in a character battle, but we've seen enough similar stuff in other contests to know it would probably end badly for Sonic. And while Luigi is a step down from Mario, Tails is an even bigger drop in strength compared to Sonic. This should be a huge blowout. The only other thing I have to say is that's it's ridiculous to see Tails make Round 3 when Knuckles still hasn't. How did that even happen?

Prediction: Luigi - 76.13%

Crew Consensus: Tails never fails...expect in this match.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Luigi - 65.50%
Mega Man X - 51.00%
Sephiroth - 63.50%
Ryu - 65.40%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

no worries
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pick a match
Do the write-up
Send to [email protected]

Please add your name to the list below.

Ganondorf vs. Vivi -
Zero vs. Pikachu -

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Alucard -
Bowser vs. Kirby -
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7338

Red wins, but Big Boss made him fight for it. This basically means that him, Sora, Big Boss, and Crash are all pretty close (with Ridley and Cecil not too far behind), which doesn't say great things for the top half of this division. With other KH and MGS characters also looking weaker, and non Pikachu Pokemon not looking great, Red's probably not anything more than a midcarder.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7339

Alucard on the other hand continues to have one of the most impressive runs in the Contest. Not many would have taken Peach over Yuna and Kefka, and yet that's how the hierarchy is going through Alucard.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7340

2B confirms herself as one of the most successful newcomers in the Contest with a strong performance against Bowser. She did a little worse than Charizard, but that's still better than most expected her to do. I believe this speaks more for 2B's strength than Bowser's weakness, as he's done well prior to this match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7341

Kirby puts up another impressive performance, and continues to look like one of the strongest characters in this bracket. Phoenix isn't a bastion of strength, but he did manage to beat Ike last round so he is worth something, and Kirby still smacked him down to almost Isaac levels.

Crew Predictions: 94/104

Next Round Thoughts: Red/Alucard looks like Alucard's match. If Red really is in that midcard range, Alucard has looked a step above that with his wins over other midcarders like Yuna and Kefka (and Peach now I guess). Bowser/Kirby should be a good one, and I think Kirby looks better going into that showdown.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 92
transience: 90
Leonhart: 86
Kleenex: 86
Guest: 80

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Red, SuperNiceDog gets the point for Alucard, transience gets the point for Bowser, and Moltar get the point for Kirby.

Kleenex: 25
transience: 24
Guest: 23 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (3), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT)
Moltar: 18
Leonhart: 17
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

So this is basically just the first match but on a weaker scale. I think Aeris actually has a better chance at winning this than Squall has at beating Zelda, but Im still inclined to side with Nintendo when unsure, because its Nintendo. If Fox wins this, hes going to get annihilated by Zelda next round and this whole half of the division is going to look like trash.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fox with 52%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Before CBX started, Fox vs. Aerith looked like a classic close Square vs. Nintendo match one of quite a few that Allen set up in this bracket (of which we had only previously seen Ganondorf versus Vivi, in questionable circumstances). Unfortunately for Aerith, though, Nintendo characters have mostly looked anywhere from strong to beastly so far, while New Square characters have been at best on par with their generally weak 2013 results. To make matters worse, Aerith failed to even reach 60% on Captain Toad last round, despite Allen unjustly robbing him of his title.

After Fox managed only 54.1% on Jill Valentine, however, Im sure many are thinking that Aerith should be stronger than her and thusly should make Fox look vulnerable. Thats especially true after Leon failed to come particularly close to DK, and seemingly proved to be barely ahead of Tidus in the process. However, I beg to differ. For me, one of the big trends of this contest so far has been sexy and badass female characters consistently overperforming. From 2B through Lara to Tifa, theyve pretty much continually impressed, and I see no reason why a nostalgia-powered Jill wouldnt be part of those ranks. Leon himself has reason to fade, as a 2000s icon whose big game has been getting more and more distant in most peoples memories, so Jill could even be the strongest Resident Evil character and I wouldnt bat an eye.

All this is to say that I fully expect Fox to embarrass Aerith, and all those bracket-makers who picked her to advance to Round 4 in the process, despite his minor hiccup against Jill.

Prediction: Fox McCloud wins with 56.65%

Crew Consensus: 1v1, no items, Fox only.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

Fox
Round 1 - 54.10% vs. Jill Valentine
Round 2 - 71.52% vs. D.Va

Aerith
Round 1 - 57.43% vs. Waluigi
Round 2 - 59.99% vs. Captain Toad

Bad day for Square?

Aerith has beat two Nintendo characters so far, but didnt look impressive beating either. Fox should easily be stronger than both Waluigi and Toad (Capt).

The problem is that its hard to get a good read on Fox so far. The number against Jill seemed fine early on, but DK managed to dispose of Leon pretty easily too, and Jill is weaker than Leon (at least I think she still is). The D.Va number also looks good, but shes a total unknown who beat another unknown in R1.

These two seemed to be pretty close in strength historically, and in close matches between Nintendo and Square, this is the year to side with Nintendo.

Moltars Bracket: Aerith

Moltars Prediction: Fox 52%

transiences Analysis

It's no secret that I think Aerith sucks as a contest character. 57% on Waluigi, 60% on Captain Toad (not even real Toad). Shovel Knight is worth like 38% on her.

Fox, though. How is Fox not better in this environment? That Jill match is pretty bad for someone so obsolete. Fox should have been winning this match for the last 13 years and yet he's still only worth 54%. The Dva match is.. okay? I guess I'd expect Aerith to go under that number but that's more antivotes than anything.

I guess this comes down to, can Fox make up the 10% gap that Captain Toad couldn't? Let's throw Wauigi out because who the hell knows with that dude. Can Fox get more than 62% on Shovel Knight?

I'm... I'm skeptical, actually. Fox has no really impressive contest wins, unless you count weird fourways and even those are not that great. Aerith should probably be the pick here... but I'm stubborn.

transience's prediction: Fox with 51.06%

Leonharts Analysis

This one is a bit tricky to me. Aerith has traditionally always been stronger than Fox in these things, but her two wins over Waluigi and Captain Toad werent all that impressive and you know hes better than them. Fox looked good against D. Va, but he let Jill Valentine stay pretty close to him in a year where Resident Evil appears to be on the downswing. Part of me says theres no way Aerith would lose to Jill, so that doesnt give Fox much margin for error, but who knows this year? Weve seen some weird results in the current environment. Final Fantasy VII has been a mixed bag this year, too, with Sephiroth and Tifa looking good while Vincent and Aerith have been mediocre. I honestly have no idea who to pick here. As a stats nerd, I just kinda hope that whoever wins between Squall/Zelda, the opposite wins here to avoid an SFF beatdown in the division finals!

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Fox McCloud with 51.86%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Leonharts Analysis

Everything weve seen from this contest so far, whether its Squall and Zeldas individual performances or the general trends, point to Zelda winning this one relatively effortlessly. Now I could make all sorts of rationalizations about why Squalls performances arent so bad (anti-voting mattering more against fodder, or Shepard being worse than Garrus now because hes more of the face of an anti-voted franchise) or why Zeldas arent as good as they seem (Bowser did the same to Gordon that she did to Ezio and didnt dominate Charizard, or that MGS has fallen even harder than Mass Effect), but why bother? Everyone knows Im sticking with my fanboy guns here, so as a wise man once said, Whatever.

Leonharts Vote: Squall Leonhart

Leonharts Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 51.44%

Kleenexs Analysis

Here we are, the day of reckoning. This is probably the most talked about R3 match we have, so Im going to spend a bunch of time not really talking about it. Fact of the matter is, Squall disappointed a bit in both of his first two rounds, while Zelda kind of killed it. Her performance on The Boss might be a little less impressive now that we know MGS is a FRAUD, but I dont think you can look at the results of the past two rounds and not call Zelda the favorite.

Thats not to say Squall is dead in the water. Its definitely possible that Zeldas performances in R1 & R2 were overblown because her opponents were just that bad, but Squalls performance on Garrus really gives me pause, especially considering how badly Shepard got smashed by Ryu the other day. Unless you think Garrus > Shepard, or Ryu > Squall, its not a great showing! So Im casting my lot with Zelda here. RIP Squall.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 52%

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder



ZenOfThunder's Prediction: Zelda with 53.86%

Crew Consensus: Zelda winning on my GameFAQs? Its more likely than you think!
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda

Moltars Analysis

Squall
Round 1 - 75.88% vs. Hat Kid
Round 2 - 64.02% vs. Garrus Vakarian

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Round 2 - 70.70% vs. The Boss

Unlike Ganondorf, Zelda doesnt have a shaky Round 2 performance that brings her Round 3 match into question. Zelda has clearly looked stronger than Squall all contest. Ryu doing better on Shepard than Squall on Garrus also does him no favors.

Ganondorf redeemed himself with an elite-level performance on Dante, and I think were going to see another one from Zelda here. Shes just looked too good this contest to make me think otherwise.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 56%

transiences Analysis

Just about every contest match this year has pointed to Zelda beating Squall. Squall struggling to triple a dude named Hat Kid; Shepard almost losing to a trailer and getting doubled by Ryu, but Garrus putting up a better number on Squall; Kingdom Hearts sucking and FF10 not doing much better; Vincent and Aerith struggling with midcard-at-best characters; Zelda putting 71% on The Boss; Ganondorf pounding Dante, and so on. Oh, and Breath of the Wild's the hottest game here in the last 7 years. Squall just looks outclassed.

Squall's best hope is that Street Fighter is stronger than ever, Kirby is a god (per Guile) and Zelda's a bit of a fake elite, just a victim of people loving her series and getting series votes until she runs up against someone that people actually care about. She gets into a match with an elite (if you want to still call Squall that) and folds. That's... well, I've never seen Nintendo fans, Zelda fans, not protect their own. Good luck, Leon.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 56.76%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7334

Lot to unpack here. If you ignore Ganondorf's R2 showing, this result seems perfectly normal. So what happened in that Chun-Li match? Is it an anomaly? Maybe. I think in this environment of icons and respect, she's much closer to Ryu in strength than she used to be. We couldn't really tell in 2013 since it got masked by the Tifa beatdown (confirmed under-performance?), but this match gave her a chance to shine. This also makes Spyro look pretty good, but again, with Crash and Pac-Man and others like him looking decent, it's understandable that Spyro is somewhere in that mix.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7335

DK finally improved a little against Vivi and beat his old result by a little over 1%. Vivi has gotten stronger since those matches, so the fact that DK did even better means he's also stronger. Tidus and Leon also dropped in strength, which only made DK look better than he should have going into the match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7336

Zero doesn't do too well against Wario. Wario did stand to benefit from being a Smash character and pretty recognizable, so it makes sense for him to look better this year. Him beating Master Hand so...handily is also interesting and probably a result of some slight SFF.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7337

"Pokemon has been underperforming and when Pikachu faces real competition he'll get exposed."

*Pikachu wins*

https://imgur.com/joqGRIC

Crew Predictions: 90/100

Next Round Thoughts: Ganon did well enough against Dante to earn his favorite status back against Vivi, and it's likely that both Pikachu and Yoshi are stronger than Zero, so whoever won that would be favored to escape the division.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 88
transience: 86
Leonhart: 84
Kleenex: 82
Guest: 77

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Ganon, Leonhart gets the point for Vivi, BT gets the point for Zero, and Kleenex get the point for Yoshi.

Kleenex: 25
Guest: 22 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT)
transience: 22
Moltar: 17
Leonhart: 17
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

Im the president of the Club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, theyre all really fun!

First up, we have transience! Hes very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little out of touch. Its okay though, no ones perfect.well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, theres Leonhart! Hes super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to make better predictions, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, theres Kleenex! Hes full of energy and super spunky! His writing style does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didnt forget you! Whats your name?



Huh? Guest? Thats a silly name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, youre the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!



What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, were all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle is happening now! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! Its pretty fun!



Its not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so its up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

Okay, everyone! It's almost time for the real show to begin! Ehehe~

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda - ZenOfThunder
Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough - MetalmindStats

Geralt vs. Bayonetta - paulg235
Auron vs. Sub-Zero - MetalmindStats

Luigi vs. Miles 'Tails' Prower - Xeybozn
Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X - TsunamiXXVIII

Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu - SuperNiceDog
Ryu vs. KOS-MOS - Lopen
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

anyone can take that last one
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

2b > charizard what a time to be alive
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/