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Round 3 Alucard vs. Kefka

Moltars Analysis

Alucard
Round 1 - 56.81% vs. Princess Peach
Round 2 - 59.62% vs. Yuna

Kefka
Round 1 - 60.19% vs. L-Block
Round 2 - 59.82% vs. Bomberman

Yuna vs. Bomberman who ya got?

I take Yuna, though after watching this contest, that match is likely to be close. Bomberman has reason to look good while Yuna might be a tad weaker. As for Peach > Yuna, its less that Yuna fell below Peach and more that Peach is stronger now, especially with Nintendo/Smash/Iconic factor all going for her.

What all that means is that Alucard is looking very strong this year.

Kefka dropping the ball in Round 2 turned me away from taking him in this match. The L-Block number also looks less impressive in hindsight, whereas all Alucard has done so far this contest is impress.

Still Kefka is weird though so it wouldnt be completely out of left field for him to pull a win out of nowhere.

Moltars Bracket: Kefka

Moltars Prediction: Alucard 54%

transiences Analysis

I can't say enough positive about Alucard. That Peach win was pretty great, and that Yuna win, wow. Again, I'm not big on FF10 characters so this could just be fluky, but putting 56 and 59% on Nintendo and Square means you're legit.

Kefka's seems legit too but it's a little murkier. L-Block and Bomberman aren't the best measures, but he's passed those pretty well. 60% on Bomberman is worse than 59% on Yuna, I *think*, but in this icon-boosted environment, maybe Bomberman's decent? I dunno. I don't trust Kefka, because I never trust Kefka, but that trust goes both ways. Maybe he's really good and maybe he flops here. Or maybe, like the numbers suggest, he's just not on Alucard's level.

That Terra match is the only thing holding me back from going all in on Alucard here. If Alucard does what I think he can, the super-unpredictable division 3 could be his for the taking.

transience's prediction: Alucard with 54.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Alucard looked great against Yuna while Kefka was a little underwhelming against Bomberman, especially after his hot start. The idea of Bomberman being a near equal to Yuna might seem strange at first glance, but weve seen a lot of these iconic mascot characters look pretty good this year (perhaps as a result of the vaunted Pac-Man Apathy Factor), so I dont actually think its that far out there.

Either way, I expect this match to be close. I cant imagine Kefka or Alucard being weaker than any of the opponents theyve beaten so far. If one of them does win big, then I think that would make them a clear favorite next round.

Leonharts Vote: Kefka

Leonharts Prediction: Kefka with 52.55%

Kleenexs Analysis

Alucard and Kefka have both impressed me with their first two rounds. I didnt expect either of them to be as good as they appear, especially because they have both seemed to drop off quite a bit from their peaks 10+ years ago. I could potentially see this going either way, but I like Alucards round 2 result a bit better than Kefkas so Ill go with him today.

Kleenexs Prediction: Alucard with 54%

Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog

Alucard has been doing so well this contest, its hard for me to against him. I would take Yuna(who Alucard beat) over Kefka, so for me, I think Alucard is going to take this one down.

He also looks better in his match pic.

The Plan is intact.

Alucard wins with 55% of the vote

Odds of Alucard winning: 71%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Big Boss is lucky hes had such a weak 4-pack, but the MGS drop finally catches up to him here. Red scored a nice upset against Sora last round, and probably doesnt have too much competition left in this division. I dont like it, but I dont really see it happening any other way.

Kleenexs Prediction: Red with 60%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

Before the contest began, I thought Big Boss would for sure win if Red was here and whether or not Big Boss escaped the division mostly came down to a possible KH3 boost for Sora. Well, Red is here, but I can't say I believe Big Boss should be considered the favorite at this point. Ridley and Crash are without a soubt stronger than they've ever been, but regardless, Big Boss has kept them both really close. No MGS has looked impressive at all and Big Boss is not gonna have his match picture be Naked Snake. I think if he had a chance to get it, he might stand a chance, but that doesn't matter.

I do expect it to be somewhat close, though never really in doubt. With how Kingdom Hearts has looked overall, Sora is probably pretty bad. I have a hard time seeing Red be stronger than Charizard and Mewtwo, but Sora was a better draw than Bowser or Tifa. I have a small hope that Big Boss can win mostly on the account of Sora being really bad, but it'd really surprise me.

Pokemon Trainer Red - 53.46%
Big Boss - 46.54%

Crew Consensus: Red adds Big Boss to his Pokedex.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Big Boss

Moltars Analysis

Red
Round 1 - 75.32% vs. Neptune
Round 2 - 50.90% vs. Sora

Big Boss
Round 1 - 56.66% vs. Ridley
Round 2 - 52.87% vs. Crash Bandicoot

51% on Sora vs. 53% on Crash hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

After watching The Boss and Ocelot both get crushed in their losses, seeing Big Boss (hopefully) go down respectably isnt going to look too bad in comparison. Red isnt on the level of Zelda and MMX, and beating Sora, who now is a high-midcarder at best, doesnt put him much further away from Big Boss and Crash.

Moltars Bracket: Sora (lol)

Moltars Prediction: Red 55%

transiences Analysis

I mean, I guess you kinda have to pick Red here, right? Dude beat Sora, albeit narrowly, and Crash nearly upended Big Boss on his own. Big Boss isn't getting the Naked Snake picture we were all hoping for and clearly isn't worth much more than, let's say, Yuna.

In reality, I'm pretty skeptical of Red here. What if Sora's just junk, just like Aqua is junk, just like Riku is junk? I already had picked Big Boss over Sora and Red's worth 51% so why not Big Boss? I'm not going there because he's been so bad, but this whole top of the bracket seems bad. More on that next round, I guess.

transience's prediction: Red with 51.22%

Leonharts Analysis

Lets be honest: Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora? Hes lost all benefit of the doubt at this point. Heck, Charizard gave up 47-48% to Terra, and Reds going to be in the same ballpark, if not weaker than that. Sora losing that match said more about his weakness than it did about the Pokemon trainers strength. I think Red is probably closer to being the guy who narrowly beat Ocelot than the guy we saw tearing through the bracket in 2013.

All that to say Im sticking with Big Boss here! Sure this is all fanboy logic and point chasing, but that and contest analysis are two sides of the same coin, really!

Leonharts Vote: Big Boss

Leonharts Prediction: Big Boss with 51.04%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7330

Sephiroth does well against Falcon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7331

Ammy does okay against Lara.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7332

Ryu looks very good against Shep.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7333

KOS-MOS does as expected.

Crew Predictions: 86/96

Next Round Thoughts: Seph and Ryu are still the favorites to win.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 84
transience: 83
Leonhart: 80
Kleenex: 78
Guest: 74

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Seph, Leonhart gets the point for Ammy, Kleenex gets the point for Ryu, and transience get the point for KOS-MOS.

Kleenex: 24
Guest: 21 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k)
transience: 21
Moltar: 17
Leonhart: 16
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda -
Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough -

Geralt vs. Bayonetta -
Auron vs. Sub-Zero -

Luigi vs. Miles 'Tails' Prower -
Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X -

Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu -
Ryu vs. KOS-MOS -
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

ib vivi with 56 again
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Ganondorf - 51.80%
Vivi - 50.70%
Zero - 63.80%
Pikachu - 54.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Poor Yoshi. Dude always seems to get a rough draw. You put in a few of the other divisions in this contest and hes probably a favorite to win, but he runs into a PokeBuzzSaw here. I dont know if this ends up as the SFF beatdown we can sometimes see in Nintendo vs. Nintendo matches, but Pikachu has looked good enough that I dont envision Yoshi really challenging in this match.

Kleenexs Prediction: Pikachu with 55%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

With both Charizard and Mewtwo failing to win their debated round 2 matches, Pikachu now has a small chance of being upset by Yoshi here. This is very unlikely to happen since Pikachu has shown that it is in a separate tier above Charizard and Mewtwo based on the matches against Scorpion and Kratos. Both performances suggest that Pikachu has Near Elite strength, which would put it out of Yoshi's range. In addition, I would put Yoshi's strength as slightly below that of Bowser, making Yoshi's chance of winning this match even harder.

At some point before the contest started, I remember a post from Ulti where he said something along the lines of "Pokemon doesn't seem to get the same kind of love on this site that the rest of Nintendo gets". This was in some topic debating Sora/Red. Ulti seems to have a point here, because Pokemon does seem to be perceived differently from the rest of Nintendo despite being a Nintendo owned IP. I think it has a lot to do with a lot of people quitting Pokemon after Gen 1 or Gen 2 and not returning to the series again. In Charizard/Bowser, Bowser actually did around 1.5% better with registered users. For how well Pokemon does with registered users, Charizard's support with registered users folded when going up against an true Nintendo character. Yoshi/Pikachu is a similar type of match-up. Pikachu's much higher strength compared to Charizard means that it has a better chance of retaining a lot of support with registered users, and Pikachu might also command more respect among people who have quit Pokemon than someone like Charizard or Mewtwo.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Pikachu

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Pikachu - 54.56%

Crew Consensus: Pikachu shocks us yet again.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Yoshi vs. Pikachu

Moltars Analysis

Yoshi
Round 1 - 74.27% vs. Shantae
Round 2 - 70.63% vs. Velvet Crowe

Pikachu
Round 1 - 66.41% vs. Scorpion
Round 2 - 63.41% vs. Kratos

Those previous round results tell the story here. Yoshis had some very easy competition and looked okay. Pikachu has had some good competition and looked great. It cant be denied that Pika is the favorite going into this match now.

The best argument for Yoshi at this point is to look at Bowser/Charizard, but even thats a stretch. Pikachu has looked way stronger than Charizard, and it is possible that Bowser is stronger than Yoshi now, though I think the two are still very close in strength.

Since Yoshi is a fan-favorite Mario character, I dont think he gets washed here or SFFed badly. He should manage to hold up, but Pikachu is just looking too strong this year to drop this match.

Moltars Bracket: Yoshi

Moltars Prediction: Pikachu 56%

transiences Analysis

I was looking back at contest history for fun today and saw that Yoshi once upon a time beat Luigi. That feels like such ancient history. Yoshi hasn't seemed notable for a long time. He's not weak, but he's not up there with the Luigis and Bowsers of the world anymore. He's a clear step down.

Pikachu, on the other hand, could probably hang with those guys if not beat them. He's got a great argument for best character in this bracket -- and that might even include Sephiroth. What's better, 66% on Scorpion or 65ish% on Captain Falcon? Hmmm.

Pikachu's just as weird as Sephiroth, so maybe he drops this, but I get the feeling that you have to be an icon or someone really respected to stand up to him. Yoshi.. ain't it. Luigi could be, but Yoshi ain't.

transience's prediction: Pikachu with 58.67%

Leonharts Analysis

Ive thought Pikachu is probably the strongest Pokemon for a while, and nothing Ive seen this contest has dissuaded me from that. I also think Yoshis been kinda overrated for a while, but he always gets to hide behind weird results (like Missingno in 2010) or SFF. Coming up a distant third to Squall and Sora in 2008 is a flatly embarrassing result for him, whether Fox was in the poll with him or not. Its been a while since weve seen what he can really do. Even thus far, hes gotten to skate by with a couple of cupcakes who are total unknowns. Whether through SFF or not, I expect Pikachu to make Yoshi look pretty bad here.

Leonharts Vote: Yoshi

Leonharts Prediction: Pikachu with 59.17%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Zero vs. Wario

Moltars Analysis

Zero
Round 1 - 74.18% vs. Primrose
Round 2 - 56.15% vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Wario
Round 1 - 64.56% vs. Monika
Round 2 - 60.97% vs. Master Hand

woo a break match

get outta here wario

monika should be here instead ahaha hope you havent forgo-

Moltars Bracket: Zero

Moltars Prediction: Zero 64%

transiences Analysis

lol Wario. I'm tempted to just write that and move on to the next match.

Wario's probably not that far from Captain Falcon strengthwise, but he's more like a Pac-Man (pre-2018). He'll drop to anyone who's notable. Zero is more than notable, and is even part of the wider Nintendo family. He's gonna kill Wario.

transience's prediction: Zero with 65.33%

Leonharts Analysis

There are a lot of potentially juicy showdowns in round 3. This is not one of them. While Zero hasnt looked like a world beater (or even someone who should be favored to win the division), he shouldnt struggle with Wario of all people. I dont even know what would be a good number for Zero to show hes got a chance next round, but I feel like itd have to be pretty high because Wario sucks. Youre about to find out how weak Noctis really is.

Leonharts Vote: Zero

Leonharts Prediction: Zero with 65.56%

Kleenexs Analysis

Wario still sucks! Zero is good, and even though he didnt put away Knuckles in the way I would normally expect from him, Wario shouldnt be a real challenge. Shouldnt being the key word. Weirder things have happened, but hopefully this wont be one of those instances.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zero with 58%

BT's Analysis

We have yet another match that is not in question at all. Wario looked like a standard 4th tier Smash character (aka low midcarder) while Zero put up a decent performance against Knuckles. The real question mark is what will happen next round when Zero goes up against Yoshi or Pikachu.

Zero ended up right around where people expected him against Knuckles, but Tails' subsequent impressive performance against Master Chief hints that the Sonic crew did indeed boost from Sonic Mania, so maybe it was a bit better than expected. 2013 stats have Zero wining with 70%, but given the unreliability of those states, coupled with Smash boost this year, it probably won't get that high. This should be a nice solid 60-40 effort to set the stage for Round 4.

BT's Prediction: Zero with 62.31%
BT's Bracket: Zero > Master Hand
BT's Vote: Zero

Crew Consensus: Zero chance he loses here.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Ganondorf - 51.50%
Vivi - 50.80%

Zero - 64.60%
Pikachu - 55.80%

Pokemon Trainer Red - 54.30%
Alucard - 52.20%

Bowser - 61.70%
Kirby - 63.40%

Zelda - 52.60%
Fox McCloud - 52.20%

Bayonetta - 51.90%
Auron - 56.80%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half on Zero
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

BANK
Vivi
Zero
Pikachu
Pokemon Trainer Red
Alucard
Bowser
Kirby
Zelda
Fox McCloud
Bayonetta
Auron
Luigi
Mega Man X
Sephiroth
Ryu
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Vivi could legitimately be the 2nd strongest Final Fantasy character at this point. You might even be able to make a case for #1, but thats a bit of a tougher sell. Donkey Kong has performed admirably so far, punching far above his normal weight, but this is where the run ends. Weve seen this match multiple times already and I dont see any reason for the result to flip.

Kleenexs Prediction: Vivi with 58%

Guests Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Oh boy, its rematch time!

The past two times this happened Vivi 56-44d the poor ape. DK appears to be kind of on steroids this contest, but alternately Shepards flop today makes it seem like that might be down to Tidus and Leon both being weaker. All right, fine, DK should be much stronger than K. Rool, but still! Oh yeah we also had Claire barely avoid a doubling from Sub-Zero and turn out to be significantly weaker than Shulk in the process. But then again we still have Jill Valentines nice-ish loss to Fox, Chris looks better after Phoenix Wright got to Round 3 but that could be partially an Ike problem, and Weskers result on Sephiroth is being significantly bettered by Captain Falcon. So the jurys out on Resident Evils contest, but Im going to say its not a good one. Strike 1 against DK.

Ah, but what about Final Fantasy X? Yuna turned out to be weaker than Peach, which looks even worse after several Smash characters bowed out in Round 2 and Luigi got a pretty lazy win over Frog. Auron turns out to be worth around only 57% on the fraud to end all frauds, Magus. Alternately, Magus winning two matches and avoiding a doubling from Link in his contest debut seems like a case of Early Installment Weirdness for these contests (keep in mind the same contest had Shadow break 45% on Mario and Samus outperform Marios result from the previous year against Link), but I digress. Then FFX had a pretty sorry showing in the games contest. The jury is out on Auron, but I think we can safely call Tidus and Yuna failures at this point. Strike 2 against DK.

DKs two wins in this contest are both against characters who have faced Vivi before...in 2007, aka four-ways. Ugh. Based on that Tidus and Vivi are about equal and Leons a good step ahead of them both. Obviously Leon is much weaker now since RE4 is no longer so new (pity, its the best game ever), and theres a good chance that Tidus is much weaker now too. Meanwhile, the last character battle and the games contest suggest that FFIX has increased in popularity since then, so maybe we can assume that Vivi 60-40s Tidus now. Unfortunately if thats the case, Vivi doesnt have much wiggle room to beat DK. Then again maybe Tidus and Leon are so lol weak now that Vivi does even better against them. BUT then DKs coming off of an upset so he might get a bandwagon going, and unfortunately I can imagine Vivi being an easy target, especially after his upset of Mario last character battle. And then theres DKs old penchant for getting involved in close matches, although I think it has been a while since DKs last close match.

You know, when I got an uneasy feeling that DK would upset Leon I should have probably listened and picked the upset, instead of merely picking DK to overperform. Now Im starting to feel similarly, but SURELY Vivi is on another level from Leon and Tidus, right? And maybe Smash/Nintendo backlash could kick in and help him. Also Vivi has apparently won two Best Character contests held on Final Fantasy Wiki, so I guess among dedicated FF fans aka the kind of people this site is made for hes a huge deal. Tifas recent easy win over Mewtwo and Vincent not getting completely plastered by Auron seem to suggest good things for pre-X FF, so uh...

Vivi with 50.79%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Vivi vs. Donkey Kong

Moltars Analysis

Vivi
Round 1 - 74.89% vs. Yu Narukami
Round 2 - 75.45% vs. Aya Brea

Donkey Kong
Round 1 - 56.93% vs. Tidus
Round 2 - 55.67%vs. Leon Kennedy

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1740
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3744

Lets get those polls out of the way now. Historically, Vivi takes this match without any problem. The problem now though is that these historical results dont matter. Vivis lost to Leon in the past. Tidus and Leon would have beaten DK in the past too, and look at what Kong did to them this year.

Vivi has looked very good this year, but that was against opponents that he has reasons to look good against. If Vivi is overrated because of those, and isnt actually at his 2013 level, then DK has a very real shot of winning here.

On the flip side, maybe DK is the one that looks overrated going into this match. Most of Square looks weaker this year, so that might explain the Tidus result. RE has looked okay, but its possible that Leon is weaker as well.

What definitely cant be argued though is that DK is stronger this year, and weve seen enough proof of Nintendo/Smash boost to determine that. The jury is still out on Vivi, but for now Im going to (probably foolishly) back the historical evidence and side with the mage here. Still, I think its pretty much a 50/50 match at this point.

Moltars Bracket: Vivi

Moltars Prediction: Vivi 51%

transiences Analysis

This is a hilarious threepeat, I believe, and Vivi's easily won the last two. I don't think that matters though. Tidus beat out DK once too and DK rocked him. DK put Leon in his place too. Would Vivi beat Leon with 55%? I'm not the world's biggest believer in Leon, but he ain't bad. Heck, he's also beaten Vivi twice.

Vivi's had a good contest -- better than most of his brethren -- but he's also facing lesser known RPG guys. I don't trust Vivi's performances all that much. His gamemate lost pretty handily to Knuckles, who lost in the same way to Zero. Beating Leon 55-45.. pretty much sounds like something Zero might be able to do. MIGHT be able to do. I was really impressed by DK ground pounding Leon so easily, if you can't tell.

Give me the ape here.

transience's prediction: Donkey Kong with 53.33%

Leonharts Analysis

Weve seen this match twice before with near identical results each time, but this might be the strongest Donkey Kong weve ever seen. On the other hand, this might be the strongest Vivi weve ever seen! At the very least, were about to find out. Their paths to this point have been very different. Vivi has feasted on total cupcakes, but at the very least, hes met expectations and hasnt shown signs of weakness. DK easily beat two characters thought to be either his equal or his superior in these contests.

Because of that, I think its possible that DK might start to pick up a bandwagon here. Youre already starting to see signs of it on Board 8. Nobody talked about how awesome it would be if DK won this division until he beat Leon. Im sticking with Vivi, but DK can definitely win this if hes picked up some momentum from the first two rounds.

Leonharts Vote: Vivi

Leonharts Prediction: Vivi with 56.38%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Pre-contest, I thought Ganondorf would have had this match for sure. After that round 2 stinker, this is much more up in the air. Maybe Chun-Li is actually just good now? Maybe Lightning really is that bad and Dantes round 2 performance was also bad? Given how well Nintendo has done up to this point, its still hard to bet against dorf. Dante has always choked when it mattered most, so I expect him to do it again. He better hope theres no hockey games happening today.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ganondorf with 51%

Lopen's Analysis

Well obviously, you see the guest, you know what I'm picking. But let's go into why real quick.

First, the hype. Devil May Cry 5 hype is legitimate. I've had several people talk to me about it, asking if I've seen the trailers, etc etc. It's also a bit of a hero's welcome. Gone is Donte the Demon Slayer. (has a nice ring to it, don't you think?) Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and Dante's fanbase appreciates him now more than ever.

I guess what I'm saying is, I expect Dante to be the strongest he's ever been this year. There's much more hype for DMC5 than there was for DMC4 or DMC3. DmC helped the fanbase appreciate the series that much more, and it's practically fiending for a new entry at this point. It's probably the only thing in the bracket that could even come close to matching Smash hype. And here's the thing with DMC5 hype-- it all funnels right into Dante. Smash hype is only helping the individual parts so much. You ever met any people who are saying "I just wonder what Ganon's up to!" when they are asked about the new Smash?

Now throw in contest results. Ganondorf looked pretty sketch last round. Now I personally think Lightning vs Chun-Li is an interesting match that Lightning could win. That Dante got almost 10% more on an opponent I consider to be similar caliber is kinda telling. If nothing else, does Dante getting 8% more than Chun-Li on Ganondorf seem weird to you? Like, in any year? Well, I'm going to do that one better and make Dante get like 14% more than Chun-Li.

Dante may choke, cause I mean, he has a history, but it'll be in the actual debatable match. Next round's. We're still in the "Dante is building his style meter against scrubs" phase. Dante's got his ticket to the crazy party with jump ropes and conga lines, and pigman ain't stoppin him. Game Over return of Dante.

Lopen's Prediction
Dante with 56.35%

Crew Consensus: Dante comes up short once again.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 Dante vs. Ganondorf

Moltars Analysis

Dante
Round 1 - 71.59% vs. Cuphead
Round 2 - 65.62% vs. Lightning

Ganondorf
Round 1 - 78.60% vs. Neku Sakuraba
Round 2 58.91% vs. Chun-Li

This was supposed to be Ganons division. Everything was looking on course in Round 1, but then Round 2 came along and put the division into question.

The big topic here is Ganons 59% on Chun-Li, which was seen as a disappointment at the time. After seeing Sub-Zero and Ryu do well later on in the round, and Pikachu continuing to beast in R2 which redeems Scorpion a little, maybe Chun-Lis a bit more legit than we thought? Fighting game boost #smashisafighter?

Dante has looked solid so far, and I think hes going to give Ganon a decent fight here, but in the end hes going to fall a little short (which usually happens with him). If Ganon can put up mid or high 50s here, Id feel good again about him taking the division.

Moltars Bracket: Ganondorf

Moltars Prediction: Ganondorf 52%

transiences Analysis

Round 3! We've somehow had 96 matches already this year.

I was all in on Ganondorf beating Dante no matter what, and then he struggled with Chun Li of all dudes. Isn't Dante worth 8% more than Chun Li? He went 50/50 with Ryu.

I think Chun Li would probably lose worse to Dante than Ganondorf, yeah -- but I also think Dante has historically struggled to get over on similar competition, especially Nintendo. It's been a dozen years, but he flopped against Yoshi when he had every reason to win. I don't think he gets as close to Ganondorf as he did to Yoshi, but I do think the same kind of logic applies. Gamefaqs ultimately will back the Nintendo guy.

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 52.44%

Leonharts Analysis

This is the sort of match Dante never wins, right? Weve seen this story before, where Dante looks good beating up on lesser characters while his opponent shows signs of vulnerability by underperforming against a known commodity. Could this be the year he reverses the trend? I really hope so because few things would make be happier than to see Ganondorf go out early.

I just cant quite bring myself to bite on it though. Dantes just so hard to trust in this situation. I think hell put up a good fight like he always does (except against Squirtle), but hell fall just short like he always does (except against Squirtle). Prove me wrong, Dante! I dare you!

Leonharts Vote: Dante

Leonharts Prediction: Ganondorf with 51.01%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7326

Luigi does as expected against Frog.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7327

Tails has no problem with Chief.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7328

Tifa does fine against Mewtwo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7329

MMX has a solid result against Ocelot.

Crew Predictions: 82/92

Next Round Thoughts: Luigi/Tails is easy, but Tifa/MMX is looking like one of the more debatable matches of Round 3.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 80
transience: 79
Leonhart: 76
Kleenex: 74
Guest: 70

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Luigi, Kleenex gets the point for Tails, Leonhart gets the point for Tifa, and Kleenex get the point for MMX.

Kleenex: 23
Guest: 21 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k)
transience: 20
Moltar: 16
Leonhart: 15
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Sephiroth with 62.70%
Amaterasu with 55.30%
Ryu with 60.60%
KOS-MOS with 57.70%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half on KOS-MOS
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Leonharts Analysis

Aqua put up a big blowout on Quiet in round 1, but it looks like MGS just sucks this year, so it wouldnt surprise me if an MGSV exclusive character was near the bottom of the X-Stats. Plus, with Bayonetta/Pac-Man being a 52/48 match, that means Riku wouldnt even do that well on Sans. Hes really been the turd of the contest in terms of just how bad this contest has made him look compared to pre-contest expectations. Can Aqua actually be stronger than Riku? I guess its possible if we had a really hardcore Kingdom Hearts fanbase who knew all the games well, but this year has demonstrated thats probably not the case!

Now KOS-MOS wasnt super impressive in round 1, but its possible that Ellie is surprisingly decent after Joel didnt look half bad either. Plus, its not like KOS-MOS has ever been a powerhouse anyway, so shes only going to score big blowouts on really bad fodder. Aquas probably not that, so KOS-MOS should win in a relatively close but never in doubt affair.

Leonharts Vote: Aqua

Leonharts Prediction: KOS-MOS with 55.16%

Kleenexs Analysis

Blue hair SFF here we go. KOS-MOS actually ended up slightly below my expectations last round, given I dont have much faith in Ellie really being that good, and on the surface, Aqua kinda impressed. The issue is that MGS characters have all looked so bad this year, its very likely that Quiet was just way worse than we all though, making Aquas result less impressive. This isnt a 100% lock for KOS-MOS by any means, but I think she should be able to pull through here.

Kleenexs Prediction: KOS-MOS with 54%

Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog

I'm not sure what to make of this match. Kos-Mos won in R1 with 54.5% against Ellie from The Last of Us, and Aqua won with 64.11% against Quiet. An ultimate battle of anime waifus who could easily be on the pillows of nerds when they go to sleep at night...

I will side with KOS-MOS. I still think that when in doubt, just go with the character who originated closer to 1998. Few people played those niche KH games with Aqua in them. More people(slightly) played at LEAST the first Xenosaga game(2003).

KOS-MOS with 54%

Crew Consensus: Aqua sinks in R2
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 KOS-MOS vs. Aqua

Moltars Analysis

KOS-MOS
Round 1 - 54.45% vs. Ellie

Aqua
Round 1 - 64.11% vs. Quiet

Aqua the last standing KH representative. What a time to be alive.

I think KOS-MOS should still be the favorite here, despite not looking too great in R1. Ellie is probably okay, and Id trust her more than Quiet or anything else from MGS at this point.

I get Fox/D.Va-lite vibes from this, and while KOS-MOS isnt as strong as Fox, shell have less trouble here than she did in Round 1.

Moltars Bracket: KOS-MOS

Moltars Prediction: KOS-MOS 61%

transiences Analysis

KOS struggled with Ellie which, yeah, isn't a great look. But Aqua? She's gotta be sub-Riku unless we're just all in on trailers now. And Riku got killed by Bayonetta who barely held off Pac-Man. I believe in Pac-Man, and Bayonetta by extension, but still. Sora losing to a human Pokemon character doesn't say much for that franchise.

KOS-MOS feels like she could get the Vyse treatment, where she's right there at the fodder line and then suddenly falls off the earth. I won't be totally surprised if the more relevant character today takes this just out of pure apathy. But I'm not picking a PSP Kingdom Hearts character over KOS-MOS. She'll have to prove it.

transience's prediction: KOS-MOS with 59.44%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Ryu vs. Commander Shepard

Moltars Analysis

Ryu
Round 1 - 68.44% vs. Lloyd Irving

Shepard
Round 1 - 51.23% vs. King K. Rool

I would have such a hard time processing a world where Shepard struggled to beat King K. Rool and then came even close to beating Ryu. This seems to be another one of those not close but not blowout mid-to-high-50s kind of matches so...

Moltars Bracket: Ryu

Moltars Prediction: Ryu 56%

transiences Analysis

Garrus did alright against Squall. There's still a huge debate over how Square is doing, but I'll take not getting blown up by a former top 12 character as being something to write home about. Maybe Shepard getting like 51% against King K Rool isn't as bad as I think it is.

Oh wait. Yes it is. That really happened. Ryu's gonna hadoken this guy to dust.

transience's prediction: Ryu with 59.78%

Leonharts Analysis

Im LeonhartFour, and this is my favorite matchup of round 2! really curious to see how this one plays out. King K. Rool made Commander Shepard look really bad in round 1, but we might be able to chalk that up to Smash quirkiness if he can hold his own here against Ryu, who looked fine but not overwhelming (as always; he is Mr. Consistency, after all) against Lloyd. Shepard might have been a sexy upset pick here in 2013, but after what weve seen from Mass Effect so far, I feel like 45%+ would be a major achievement.

Leonharts Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonharts Prediction: Ryu with 56.99%

Kleenexs Analysis

Garrus looked weak. Shepard looked weak. You might have been able to make a case for this being a close-ish match 5 years ago, but not today. Ryu should have no issues.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ryu with 63%

Guests Analysis - garetha200

Now here's a match I don't know what to think about. I never really believed in the hype that Ryu could give Sephiroth any kind of a run in the divisional finals: even if he's in Smash, he isn't a Nintendo icon and he's still just a fighting game character. Nevertheless, he's against a Shepard who had difficulty with King K. Rool of all characters last round, so you don't need to be a big-time icon to take down this match.

However, I don't see some huge percentage blowout happening, as Shepard doesn't seem like the kind of character who'd roll over and die even if he isn't strong anymore. Mass Effects 1 and 2 are very fondly remembered games, and the main character should still have enough strength to avoid a crushing at the hands of Ryu. Furthermore, Garrus rebounded slightly and didn't completely die against Squall, and I would never take Ryu over Squall so I'd be surprised if Shepard came out of this looking too bad.

Ryu with 60%

Crew Consensus: Shep gets blown up by Ryu.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Leonharts Analysis

Its hard to make much of anything out of either characters round 1 match. Amaterasu landed the blowout of the contest against Draven, but that was basically catharsis for the entire voting populace who was here in 2013. Metal Man is certainly weak, but its hard to gauge exactly how weak since hes sort of a unique entity as someone who is simply a boss fight from an NES game.

Amaterasu has traditionally been the stronger of the two over the years, and while Lara has rebounded in recent years with the Tomb Raider reboot, shes never been able to beat someone this good before. Its hard to totally trust her in this spot, although I think she can put up a good fight.

Leonharts Vote: Amaterasu

Leonharts Prediction: Amaterasu with 54.84%

Kleenexs Analysis

Iconic Character Boost aint got nothing on Ammy. She put up the best percentage of anyone in round 1, completely dominating out previous Character Battle Champion. I cant imagine Lara has any real shot here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ammy with 65%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

Here's a match that could have potential upset potential, albeit a rather small chance. The upset potential is dependent how much strength Lara Croft has been able to maintain over the past several years. Western characters of the realistic human variety have mostly declined in strength, but Lara Croft should hold up better than most of those characters as she established herself as a 1990s video game icon and is still appearing in new games often enough to remain relevant in the eyes of the voters.

It's hard to know for sure where Lara Croft stands today because she faced Metal Man in round 1, a character of unknown strength. Amaterasu is probably still the same character that we've seen since 2010 and has no reason to decline. In addition, Amaterasu's character design means that she will age very well on this site and maintain her strength incredibly well.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Amaterasu

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Amaterasu - 55.22%

Crew Consensus: Ammy erases Lara from the bracket.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Amaterasu vs. Lara Croft

Moltars Analysis

Amatersau
Round 1 - 88.15% vs. Draven

Lara
Round 1 - 67.89% vs. Metal Man

man that ammy number from last round brings a smile to my face

Lara did fine too, but she needed to go bigger in R1 as she was always the underdog (lol) in this match. She can be seen as both iconic and still relevant on GameFAQs, so I dont think shes going to roll over (lol) here. Like the other icons, shell put up a respectable performance and then bow out of the contest...woof.

Moltars Bracket: Amaterasu

Moltars Prediction: Amaterasu 57%

transiences Analysis

Look, I've been an early convert of these non-Nintendo mascot characters doing unusually well. Pac-Man, Crash, Simon and Master Chief didn't win, but put 47-48% on heavily favored characters. Mid-tier icons like Alucard and DK killed it against respectable competition.

Lara is perfect for that kind of environment and is ready to go. This is like a round 1 match because the Draven and Metal Man matches mean absolutely nothing. Lara at least went against a character who could potentially have some fans on gamefaqs, and she did a number on him. Metal Man isn't fundamentally different from Metal Sonic but Lara still put a doubling on him. Not many dudes get doubled these days! Lara is legit. She's way more notable than Amaterasu. She's gotten better with all her new games - which we don't care about, but it's better than Okami's gotten lately.

So yeah, I believe in Lara. Just one thing.. I have a contest rule. Don't fucking bet against Amaterasu in any kind of debatable match. She will prove you wrong every god damn time.

transience's prediction: Amaterasu with 56.66%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pick a match
Do the write-up
Send to [email protected]

Please add your name to the list below.

Dante vs. Ganondorf -
Vivi vs. Donkey Kong -

Zero vs. Wario -
Yoshi vs. Pikachu -

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Big Boss -
Alucard vs. Kefka -

2B vs. Bowser -
Phoenix Wright vs. Kirby -
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

I know it doesnt need to be said again, but FF7 has had it rough this contest. The early vote has been abysmal, and though they tend to recover over the course of the day, those first few hours are a frightening time. Even moreso when theyre up against a Nintendo character. By conventional wisdom, Sephiroth should be miles ahead of Captain Falcon. However, Im not going to be surprised if Falcon is leading this match early on. Hes a Nintendo character, hes meme-y and everyone hates Sephiroth. I think with and early lead and the idea of lol Sephiroth is losing permeating, theres a chance this upset actually happens. Im not picking it, but I think the pieces are there.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 56%

Guests Analysis - Janus5k

Okay, let's do some numbers.

In 2010, Captain Falcon got 41.09% on Cloud. Meanwhile, Sephiroth got 41.79% against Snake, while Cloud got 47.41% against him. This projects Sephiroth to get 44.07% on Cloud, which in turn projects Falcon to get 46.62% on Sephiroth.

HOWEVER, this is the year of SmashFEAR. Falcon embodies the Smash boost, with his iconic techniques and stunning pecs, so even if he's not the focus of Ultimate hype you can bet the good Captain will benefit. Further, FFVII hasn't looked too great. Currently Aeris is barely putting 60% on a Toad, while Vincent barely broke 52% on a running joke and is looking to get the Death Penalty except from Auron this time.

As such, I am making the bold claim that Falcon gains the upper hand and scores 51% on Sephiroth, while ExTha plunges into endless despair.

...Incidentally, those numbers were all based on the first five minutes of each match. But who's winning at the freeze is much less predictable than the rest of this.

Guest prediction: Sephiroth with 61.50%

Crew Consensus: One Winged Angel > Two Winged Falcon
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon

Moltars Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 70.28% vs. Albert Wesker

Falcon
Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Richter Belmont

Anyone up for some Seph getting embarassed? Cuz Im up for some Seph getting embarassed.

Falcon broke 30% on Cloud five years ago, and since then Nintendo stock has been way up and Square/FF7 stock has been way down. Not expecting Falcon to get the upset here, but hes probably going to make Sephy look bad.

Moltars Bracket: Sephiroth

Moltars Prediction: Sephiroth 62%

transiences Analysis

Captain Falcon is like the prototypical character to make Sephiroth look bad. Nintendo never lays down unless it's the one blowing you out. Seph is a tier and a half above the other guys in the baby bracket, or he should be anyway, so he might still drop 70 on a low-to-middle-tier Nintendo guy like Falcon. I'll be curious to compare this match to, say, Pikachu/Scorpion or Auron/Lucina. No matter what happens here, it really won't matter because nothing is going to give Sephiroth much trouble in this division.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 68.01%

Leonharts Analysis

The board vote for this one ought to be fun. When Captain Falcon faced Cloud in 2010, he had over 40% at the freeze and finished the match under 30%, so that should give you an idea of how extreme the trends were for FFVII and Smash back in the day. Trends are super diluted this year, but Nintendo is still extremely frontloaded and we have seen a few FF characters rise to heaven after the board vote. I wouldnt be surprised if this were similar to what we saw at the end of the Villains Contest where Bowser and Ganondorf went 50/50 with Sephiroth at the start of the match and then he climbed up to around 60% by the end.

Leonharts Vote: Sephiroth

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 59.99%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7322

Geralt struggles a bit with Simon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7323

Bayonetta barely fended off Pac-Man.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7324

Auron does okay against Vincent.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7325

Subby puts up a strong result against Claire.

Crew Predictions: 78/88

Next Round Thoughts: Geralt/Bayonetta seems like a toss-up, and you can make a case for either side right now. Auron/Sub-Zero would look interesting, but it's likely to go the same way it has in the past.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 76
transience: 75
Leonhart: 72
Kleenex: 70
Guest: 68

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Janus5k gets the point for Geralt, Kleenex gets the point for Bayonetta, Leonhart gets the point for Auron, and Kleenex get the point for Sub-Zero.

Guest: 21 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k)
Kleenex: 21
transience: 19
Moltar: 16
Leonhart: 14
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Sephiroth
Amaterasu
Ryu
KOS-MOS
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Lopen's Analysis:

Oh boy. I thought I was going to be boring with Master Chief this year. After all, losing to Ryu Hayabusa in 2010 followed by losing to Yuna in 2013 in a format that should favor him didn't inspire me with confidence he could do anything crazy like challenge Luigi. But then, well, Tails put up a good number on Drake and suddenly everyone who picked Drake is like "damage control time" and suddenly Master Chief is a huge underdog even when the bar to clear is Tails so I guess it's an upset special now? Let's talk about a few things.

Chief is looking good coming off round 1. Best he's looked since 2008 I'd argue. Putting up 70%, even on a weak opponent, is good for him-- it implies he's not being as heavily anti-voted as he was when he was at his weakest times. Goro Majima probably isn't the worst level of fodder in the contest. Kiryu did okay on Bomberman who in turn did okay on Kefka. To me I think we're looking at 2004 Chief levels here at base, since he mashed the foddery (in 2004 anyway) Crash Bandicoot for similar numbers back then. 2010 you had him put up only 60% on Spy, which should've been a red flag immediately-- not that losing to Hayabusa is the worst thing ever or anything but I do think 2010 Chief was probably weaker than 2004 (and 2018) Chief. Now 2004 wasn't exactly a glorious year for him but he did come awfully close to beating Frog who was decent then. Chief is also old enough that he likely avoids the kind of falling off a cliff syndrome that many other more recent characters have had-- I'm not saying he's going to get a nostalgia boost but being old enough to get anything out of nostalgia whatsoever should be enough to stave off the fact that Halo hasn't been relevant in many years now.

Speaking about age, on the flip side we have Tails's round 1 opponent, Nathan Drake. Nathan Drake comes from a breed that has, frankly, looked like crap across the board this contest. "Normal human" in design? Check. From a series that became prominent in the last 10 years? Check. Keep in mind that Nathan Drake once was doubled by CATS. Obviously I'm not saying he is going to fall to those levels-- that was before even Uncharted 2, but just pointing out that he has a pretty good distance he can fall. Also note that Master Chief hasn't ever really looked to be substantially weaker than Tails in any year, even in his weak years. Chief's fall from grace has been overstated-- he can still murder guys who are at risk of failing the Pac-Man (circa 2005, maybe not the monster Pac-Man of today) test. Sonic team hasn't really looked amazing either. Knuckles looked alright, but not particularly boosted-- beating Zidane convincingly was likely Zidane's fault more than anything seeing many other FF characters in action. Metal Sonic lost to The Boss who was in turn utterly murdered by Zelda. Shadow lost to Ness who was humiliated by 2B. There isn't really a lot of reason to have faith in Tails or his round 1 opponent here.

It's time for one more dose of believe for old time's sake. GAME FUEL, son. Let's do it. Finish the fight.

Lopen's Prediction:
Master Chief with 54.07%

Crew Consensus: TAILS FUEL
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Master Chief vs. Miles Tails Prower

Moltars Analysis

Master Chief
Round 1 69.00% vs. Goro Majima

Tails
Round 1 - 56.73% vs. Nathan Drake

So Tails made Drake look like a chump, and pre-contest I figured that Drake would make Chief look bad. Hmm

Tails should be the favorite here, not necessarily because of his strength, but because now that Master Chief has some actual competition, I dont think hes going to hold up as well on our site.

Moltars Bracket: Drake

Moltars Prediction: Tails 58%

transiences Analysis

Nobody's picking Chief, right? It's just impossible to have any kind of confidence in that dude. If Drake was here we'd probably pick Drake.

Chief had a surprisingly good round 1. I'm always waiting for this weird day when Chief becomes some kind of super nostalgic character due to his age and the fondness for the days when Halo was the biggest show in town. It hasn't been that since 2007, though, and Chief just gets worse and worse. There aren't many notable characters that I would pick Chief over. He's like the anti-Pac-Man. If he finds a dude that's well-known, he finds a way to limbo under them. The Master Chief exam should be a rite of passage for middling contest characters. Lucina, KOS-MOS, 2B, Spyro -- if you want to see if they're at least okay, put em against the Chief.

Oh, right. Tails. Tails is in this match.

transience's prediction: Tails with 59.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Its weird to think that Tails could win two matches this year when hed only won one match before this in his long contest career. Weve seen western characters collapse left and right this year, so getting to face two of them back to back is a lucky break. Master Chief put a good beatdown on a weak Yakuza guy in round 1, so hes not totally worthless like I thought he might be this year. As such, I wont completely discount Chiefs chances of winning, but at the same time, I wont be shocked at all if Tails beats him worse than he beat Drake.

Leonharts Vote: Miles Tails Prower

Leonharts Prediction: Miles Tails Prower with 56.56%

Kleenexs Analysis

I really want to take Chief here. Really bad. But I dont think he can pull this one off. Sonic characters have all looked really good this year, and while Chief did look okay, it wasnt a monster performance against one of the weakest characters in the bracket. Im not convinced this is 100% in Tailss favor, I think Chief has a non-zero chance, but all the data points weve seen so far point to Tails.

Kleenexs Prediction: Tails with 55%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Luigi with 61.80%
Miles 'Tails' Prower with 57.50%
Tifa Lockheart with 56.60%
Mega Man X with 70.40%

Sephiroth with 61.70%
Amaterasu with 57.30%
Ryu with 56.10%
KOS-MOS with 58.80%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Max on Mega Man X
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Luigi
Miles 'Tails' Prower
Tifa Lockheart
Mega Man X
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Time to see how legit Chrono Trigger is this year. Frog and Luigi both looked pretty good last round pulling in around the same numbers on their respective opponents. Obviously Edgeworth is stronger than Monokuma, probably by a reasonable margin, so Frog doesnt actually have a real shot of winning this match. However, he should be able to hold up pretty well assuming the fabled CT boost is real. Unless of course, the dreaded Green SFF takes effect, in which case RIP Frog.

Kleenexs Prediction: Luigi with 58%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

This easy Round 2 match is really all about gauging where Luigi currently stands, and thus seeing whether he can escape his division, and hopefully even knock off a washed up Noble Niner!

There are a few key matches to keep in mind here from 2010, the last one-on-one character battle. In particular, that was the last time Frog was up against a (near-elite) Mario character, when Bowser scored 63.22% on him. Since then, Magus has seemingly validated part of Chrono Triggers surprise 2015 surge by almost beating Vincent, followed by the latters (currently) decent number against Auron. Based on that, Chrono Trigger characters have improved from 2010, but so have iconic, well-liked Nintendo characters, which puts a repeat performance by Luigi in the expected range. As such, anything from about 62.5% to 64% wouldnt say much either way about Luigis chances of winning his division.

If Luigi really wants to establish himself as the clear favorite in his contentious division and potentially even beyond, he needs to be shooting to exceed fellow near-elite (as of 2010 at least) Squalls 64.52% against fellow Old Square midcarder Terra. Terra herself seems to have improved a bit since then, but her 2010 strength should be very close to Frogs current level.

On the other hand, anything close to 60-40 would almost certainly be a death knell for the green-capped one. To compare to another 2010 match, Luigis most likely competition in Mega Man X scored 61.16% against Red, who was squarely a midcarder back then after barely beating Revolver Ocelot. If Tifa or Mewtwo instead escape from their half of the division, he should still be aiming just as high to win unless Mewtwos somehow on its 2013 steroids, in which case Luigis doomed regardless.

Because Luigis probably my favorite video game character (and an established near-elite, of course), I predicted big things for him in my bracket, taking him out of his division and even over Sephiroth in the Losers Bracket. To validate my hopes, Luigi is going to have to soar in this match, and my prediction thus reflects my hope that hell soar sky high indeed.

My Prediction: Luigi wins with 65.59%

Crew Consensus: Its still Weegi Time.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Luigi vs. Frog

Moltars Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth

Frog
Round 1 - 76.38% vs. Monokuma

Pretty easy start to Round 2 of this division. Luigi has been a few steps ahead of Frog for years now, and while both crushed fodder in R1, Edgey is better fodder to crush than Monokuma.

Magus was somewhat vindicated by Vincent not dropping the ball against Auron, so Im going to guess that Frog will look okay here by keeping Luigi in the low-60s.

Moltars Bracket: Luigi

Moltars Prediction: Luigi 61%

transiences Analysis

It looks like Magus would get about 41% on Auron, which is notable because Magus once got 41% on Alucard. (Then again, Alucard just held Yuna to a similar percentage. Maybe Auron isn't totally safe.)

I mention Magus, of course, because Frog's up against Luigi here. This is a great chance to test the Chrono Trigger boost from 2015 or whatever year that was when CT obliterated Melee before rallying happened. That's still the most disappointing contest result in my memory - CT has historically gotten screwed in many different ways, and it was finally going way the hell over and crap. I guess 2004 Crono/Mario is also a triumph. Eh, not good enough for me.

Both Luigi and Frog had great r1 performances against bums. In a good CT year, Frog might be able to hold Luigi under 60%. Can he do it here? I'm feeling Luigi as a top performer in the baby bracket this year but I think Frog can at least kinda sorta hang with him. If Luigi can double Frog, let's just call this division and move on.

transience's prediction: Luigi with 61.88%

Leonharts Analysis

As Im watching Vincent not get totally destroyed by Auron right now, it does seem that maybe Magus is a little better this year than in recent contests. Well find out for sure with Frog. Bowser got 63% on him back in 2010, so if Frog can improve on that number by a noticeable amount, that could portend good things for Cronos chances down the line. On the other hand, if Luigi can outdo Bowsers number by a decent margin, that would speak well for his chances of winning the division. Im all in on Luigi this year, so Ill bet on the latter.

Leonharts Vote: Luigi

Leonharts Prediction: Luigi with 66.05%
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

maybe next contest
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7318

Squall does okay against Garrus.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7319

Zelda puts up another strong performance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7320

Fox also looking pretty strong winning here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7321

Expected result for Aerith.

Crew Predictions: 74/84

Next Round Thoughts: Nintendo is going into R3 with the advantage over the Square opponents.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 75
Moltar: 74
Leonhart: 70
Kleenex: 68
Guest: 66

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Squall, Kleenex gets the point for Zelda, Leonhart gets the point for Fox, and Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Aerith.

Guest: 20 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133)
transience: 19
Kleenex: 19
Moltar: 16
Leonhart: 13
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Geralt - 53.60%
Bayonetta - 60.20%
Auron - 56.10%
Sub-Zero - 60.70%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

I guess Bayonetta wins this? Pac-Man blew the fuck out of Sans last round, but thats probably more on Sans than Pac. I suppose its possible that ICONIC CHARACTER MANIA is running rampant on this contest and Pac-Man got a big boost, but Ive got my money on Bayonetta here. She...might even be able to make it to the division finals?

Kleenexs Prediction: Bayonetta with 58%

Guests Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

In the first round, people were really down on Riku because Bayonetta almost doubled him in a debated match, but what we've seen from Sora and Aqua doesn't indicate a massive KH deboost. I think Bayonetta's performance was as impressive as it looked, and if she replicates this strength in the next two rounds, we should seriously consider her against Auron in the division finals.

Here's my explanation for why Bayonetta kicks ass: Nintendrones. You know, the sort who automatically vote for garbage no one is looking forward to in the monthly hype polls if it's Nintendo-related. Bayonetta looked to be a respectable fodderliner based on her 2013 appearance just from one game on PS3 and Xbox 360. Since then, she's of course appeared in Smash, and had Bayonetta and Bayonetta 2 released on Wii U and Switch (as well as PC for the first game). So, take her already respectable strength from 2013 and add an army of Nintendo fans who have now played as her in both her own series and Smash 4, and you've got a recipe for a hot new midcarder. Even better, she's far from generic so she'll age better than most modern characters.

As for Pac-Man? It's hard to say how good Pac-Man is given his fodderific R1 opponent, but since he's now in the Smash playable cast, it's safe to say he's no weaker than last we saw him. He may be too strong to serve as a fodderline test. Regardless, Bayonetta will pass him with full marks.

Bayonetta wins with 60.01%

Crew Consensus:Bayo stomps on Pac-Man
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Pac-Man vs. Bayonetta

Moltars Analysis

Pac-Man
Round 1 - 71.38% vs. Sans

Bayonetta
Round 1 - 64.40% vs. Riku

Both looked good in Round 1, but even though Riku and KH have looked bad, Im still very impressed by Bayos performance. Sans and Undertale have left a stink on these contests, and Draven bombing showed that GameFAQs does not forgive and does not forget. That means that Pac overperformed and isnt going to be some beast here.

I believe Bayonetta easily passes the Pac-Man test as GameFAQs both knows and likes her.

Moltars Bracket: Riku (lol)

Moltars Prediction: Bayonetta 61%

transiences Analysis

Man, what do you do here? Both characters looked like gods last round. We've focused on Nintendo doing well, and yeah, of course they would do well, but I think the most surprising results so far have been these faded mascot characters. I just wrote about it with Simon and we've seen countless dudes, from Crash to Spyro to Sonic characters all do about 4-5% better than we expected. Pac-Man is the ultimate form of that.

Bayonetta.. she's really come on as new Dante, but with a little bit of Smash thrown in. She's way more popular than her game and she's become Nintendo-lite. You might not have played Bayonetta but you know the character and you probably like her. I'm not that surprised that she beat Riku because Riku sucks, but going so big was pretty impressive. Sora may have lost to Red but he was right there. That Riku win is pretty legit.

Pac-Man's win over Sans is really hard to gauge, but it's hard not to be impressed. Sans isn't bottom-tier garbage. That dude has some fans. I have no idea what to do here. I guess I'll go with the icon, despite being pretty high on Bayonetta. Do Nintendo fans back Bayonetta over Pac? Just because of Smash? I dunno. Maybe.

transience's prediction: Pac-Man with 51.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Bayonetta was probably the most impressive character in round 1 to me. Sure, Kingdom Hearts has looked pretty bad all around, but I picked Bayonetta with the assumption that Riku would suck and she still blew past my wildest expectations for her! Its possible that shes made the leap into being a strong contest character. At the same time, Pac-Mans margin of victory over Sans is perhaps the most astonishing result we saw in round 1 (other than maybe Ammy/Draven for its sheer absurdity).

However, its more likely than Sans is just really weak, and Bayonetta is much more likely to be a lot stronger now because of Smash than Pac-Man is. I like her to look good again here.

Why didnt I pick Bayonetta to win three matches?

Leonharts Vote: Bayonetta

Leonharts Prediction: Bayonetta with 61.62%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half on Bayonetta
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Seeing 2B win the other day has given hope that yes, characters from the past few years can, in fact, beat low tier Smash characters! This match is similar. I think 2B is probably a little bit stronger than Geralt, but I also think Simon is a little bit weaker than Ness. So basically I expect this to end up similarly to the 2B match. I could definitely see Geralt end up flopping, but this should be a close, winnable match for him. If anything, itd be nice to have a few new midcarders around here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Geralt with 53%

Guests Analysis - Janus5k

One way to look at this match is to ask whether or not Geralt is better than Ryu H. On the one hand, Ryu is older and a ninja, and the former has proven to be pretty useful. On the other hand, Witcher 3 would annihilate any Ninja Gaiden game, and Geralt is very recognizable/visually appealing and from what I can tell Witcher fans love the guy. His 56% on Rosalina also looks surprisingly okay in retrospect; while I don't think she's on the level of even the Dededes and K. Rools of the world she's probably still somewhat respectable. Meanwhile, Ninja Gaiden just doesn't seem relevant anymore, and for a third party franchise that's probably more damning than it might be on this site. Ryu's recent results have also been pretty mixed and it's unclear if his win over the Chief is even meaningful.

This new and improved Simon is still kind of an enigma besides the Ryu match. Trying to make sense out of SmashFEAR and lower-level Nintendo hierarchies is pretty wacky right now (to say nothing of trying to compare Geralt to characters like Shepard), so I'll go with my instinct of Geralt > Ryu H and take the Witcher here. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him looking like Luigi in that Simon trailer though.

Guest prediction: Geralt with 52.25%

Crew Consensus: Geralt wins *insert something clever here*
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 Geralt vs. Simon Belmont

Moltars Analysis

Geralt
Round 1 - 56.03% vs. Rosalina

Simon
Round 1 - 50.78% vs. Ryu Hayabusa

I dont even know what to make of this fourpack after Round 1. I would think Rosalina is the weakest of the bunch, but theres only so much wriggle room for Geralt to be stronger than Simon and Ryu H.

Honestly theres less analysis to do here and more guesswork. I think Geralt is going to be a little stronger than Simon and Ryu H in strength, but really cant base it off anything.

Moltars Bracket: Geralt

Moltars Prediction: Geralt 51%

transiences Analysis

Alucard proved to me that Simon isn't purely a trailer. Okay, so he's mostly that. But Alucard looks his legit-est in maybe a decade this year. That Yuna win was something I'd expect from someone on, say, Zero's level, maybe even Ganondorf seeing how he struggled with Chun Li. (That match is weird.) He's been weak in the past but Simon is a true video game icon. I think some of that legacy has passed down over the many years since he was unveiled. He's not loved, but he's Nintendo proper now as opposed to whatever Mega Man is.

I don't think Geralt can stand up to him. His win against Rosalina showed that even the newest and weakest Nintendo characters can cause him some struggles. Simon probably drives a stake into the Witcher tonight.

transience's prediction: Simon with 53.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Geralt looked rough in round 1 against Rosalina, especially early on. Nintendo (and Mario in particular) has looked pretty solid in this contest though, so that might not turn out to be as bad of a showing as we initially thought. Dont get me wrong. Rosalina isnt anything special, but shes not turbo fodder either. I think Simon will do better than her, but I wouldnt say hes made the leap into being a strong character yet. As weve seen from other characters of Hayabusas caliber and tier, losing that match said more about him than it did about Simon.

Why in the world did I pick Ryu Hayabusa to win three matches?

Leonharts Vote: Simon Belmont

Leonharts Prediction: Geralt with 53.21%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7314

2B upsets Ness.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7315

Bowser has no problem with Charizard.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7316

Phoenix wins a very close match with Ike.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7317

Kirby does as expected.

Crew Predictions: 70/80

Next Round Thoughts: 2B's run is very likely to end with Bowser. Same goes for Phoenix against Kirby.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 71
Moltar: 70
Leonhart: 66
Kleenex: 64
Guest: 63

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for 2B, Leonhart gets the point for Bowser, Leonhart gets the point for Phoenix, and Kleenex gets the point for Kirby.

Guest: 20 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133)
transience: 19
Kleenex: 16
Moltar: 14
Leonhart: 12
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pick a match
Do the write-up
Send to [email protected]

Please add your name to the list below.

Luigi vs. Frog -
Master Chief vs. Miles 'Tails' Prower -
Tifa Lockheart vs. Mewtwo -
Revolver Ocelot vs. Mega Man X -

Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon -
Amaterasu vs. Lara Croft -
Ryu vs. Commander Shepard -
KOS-MOS vs. Aqua -
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 The Boss vs. Zelda

Moltars Analysis

The Boss
Round 1 - 56.52% vs. Metal Sonic

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze

After the Ganon match, there is a chance that Zelda gets exposed here. Tripling Ezio is way more impressive than what Ganon did on Neku, but still, The Boss could surprise.

But most likely she wont because MGS hasnt looked good at all this year.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 65%

transiences Analysis

Let's take a quick pre-match gut check: who's stronger, Garrus or The Boss? I would go with The Boss, I think, and if Zelda outdoes Squall's percentage, some upset hype should get going. Zelda feels like she should be pretty good after Breath of the Wild, and with the site being so Nintendo-heavy right now.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 66.12%

Leonharts Analysis

Its time again for a Zelda character to get exposed by a low midcarder after a high percentage in round 1! Or at least thats what Im hoping happens! I do think theres a good chance that happens, but on the same note, Zelda had more reason to boost from Breath of the Wild because shes an actual character instead of being CALAMITY GANON. I do think The Boss is perennially underrated, too, even as Metal Gear Solid keeps underperforming left and right in this contest, so I need her to show it here! Prove your loyalty! Finish your mission!

Leonharts Vote: The Boss

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 57.98%

Kleenexs Analysis

On the flip side, Im not really sure what numbers I want to see out of Zelda here. Im not entirely certain where to peg The Boss at this point. Metal Gear characters havent exactly been lighting up the world either, so I would expect to see something fairly high here. I think The Boss is almost definitely stronger than Garrus at this point, so if Zelda outdoes Squall by a significant margin today, then get ready to sound the alarms.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 67%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This match was never in any doubt. If possible, trends this contest has only made it even more of a lock than it was. Zelda is probably gonna look really good here. It's tough to tell just where The Boss is. MGS in
general looks weaker, but it's still hard to say how much especially because horrible match pictures have been a good part of it. Metal Sonic has never been in the field before, so we don't know just how weak he is. The Boss used to be incredibly weak, then actually looked impressive enough last contest, but now MGS has unimpressed a few times. Not expecting this match to give a great idea of how much MGS has fallen, but maybe it'll help a bit. A fair goal for The Boss should be to avoid the doubling I think, which I'll predict she just manages to after getting doubled for some of the day. In other words, a day of the typical Nintendo vs. non-Nintendo we've seen this contest.

The Boss - 35.02%
Zelda - 64.98%

Crew Consensus: Zelda is the boss in this match
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Squall Leonhart - 66.60%
Zelda - 65.30%
Fox McCloud - 62.50%
Aerith Gainsborough - 60.30%

Geralt - 52.60%
Bayonetta - 61.30%
Auron - 55.70%
Sub-Zero - 58.80%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Squall Leonhart
Zelda
Fox McCloud
Aerith Gainsborough
Geralt
Bayonetta
Auron
Sub-Zero
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/