Lurker > red sox 777

I think Samus probably boosted in 2005, with the rest of Nintendo. But probably not as much as Mario. RSFF has always made sense to me intuitively, and Mario > Samus may be the best evidence we're ever going to get of it.

I will point out that Lopen is the only one of us who got Mario/Samus anything close to right before the match. Lots of people picked Mario but mostly with stuff like 51%. Lopen called Mario with 60%, and he can correct me if I'm wrong but the only basis for that prediction would have been expecting major SFF, not expecting Mario to boost 16 points while Samus stayed still.
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Rallies are good when they favor my favorite. If there was a way to pay $1,100 to buy 1,100 votes to make CT beat SSBM last contest you know I'd have done it!
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Xeybozn posted...

red sox 777 posted...

The president is the chief law enforcement officer of this country. Ultimately, the president is responsible for enforcing all federal laws, and the DoJ only has power by virtue of being delegated it by the president.

Does this mean it's also Trump's fault that Hillary still hasn't been locked up? Maybe he should actually do his job instead of spending his time ranting about how everyone else isn't doing what he wants.

Yes, candidate Trump even spelled out exactly how he would do it - order the attorney general to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Hillary.
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1063042585802039296?s=21

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1063046973857718272?s=21

The inner workings of the Mueller investigation are a total mess. They have found no collusion and have gone absolutely nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come up with the answers they want. They are a disgrace to our Nation and dont...

....care how many lives the ruin. These are Angry People, including the highly conflicted Bob Mueller, who worked for Obama for 8 years. They wont even look at all of the bad acts and crimes on the other side. A TOTAL WITCH HUNT LIKE NO OTHER IN AMERICAN HISTORY!

Its so funny to me that he doesnt realize how much he implicates himself with these tweets

The president is the chief law enforcement officer of this country. Ultimately, the president is responsible for enforcing all federal laws, and the DoJ only has power by virtue of being delegated it by the president. So it would be the president's duty to fire any prosecutor who is running witch hunts.

So, what is he waiting for? Does he want an official petition on the White House petitions site to get to 100,000 signatures?
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Avenatti is probably innocent, but now he can parade this as evidence of a vast right wing conspiracy against him orchestrated from the highest levels of the Department of Justice.

He's not nearly as good at the game as he thinks he is though. And there are not enough free votes, as in voters who haven't already made up their mind, in the Democratic primary to make a difference. You know they will nominate Hillary again if she runs, or if not, they'll pick someone similar to her with the same weaknesses in the general.
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It's Nintendo vs. Square. If it's debatable, Nintendo wins about 90% of the time. It's been this way since 2005.
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I wish there was some way to bring back those old votals.
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Hillary could run again, and she would probably win the nomination again. Multiple people will run against her and split the reasonable person vote. Then she'll lose to Trump again. Then she will try again in 2024 and lose again to a different Republican.
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Someone please tell Trump that forest fires predominantly happen in the Republican parts of CA.
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xp1337 posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

but its hard not think shes asking 3 of the 4 people above her to step aside so she can take control?

Aside from being a 2017 article (lol). The 4th person ranked above her would be Crowley, who was defeated by AOC (though again since the article is 2017 this hadn't actually happened yet.) Crowley was also the one directly ahead of her. He was the chair of the caucus and she was the vice-chair.

As for actual present-day leadership challenges to Pelosi. The name I've heard the most leading up to all this (as in like going back a year plus) is Tim Ryan and recently when asked about it his answer struck me as though it wasn't going to go anywhere if it even happens.

I've heard there's a group of 10-12 representatives who claim they'll stick together and call for new leadership but "good luck" the Dem House majority can absorb that. The highest number I've heard is "up to 20" which is still lol in terms of 20 people trying to dictate to the other 210-215 but is at least not a totally insignificant number to the math of this, though they could all just vote present on the Speaker vote and again whatever. Though in all this numbers talk I don't think anyone has yet got a list of these people.

The House Freedom Caucus showed us that 30-40 can dictate to 400, kind of. But I wouldn't expect Democrats to have that kind of spine
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People like Manchin and Tester help you guys. The people who demanded changes to Obamacare that made it much worse so that it would look less liberal hurt you guys.
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And I was completely wrong about Coconino being a red county before. Not sure why I thought that, but it's voted blue in every presidential election since at least 1992. Sorry guys.
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But yeah, a Republican can't expect to lose Maricopa by more than 2 points and win Arizona. There are just not enough votes in the other red counties to make a big dent against the margin that will be run up in Pima and 2 points in Maricopa.
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Hmm, Coconino went 54-35 for Clinton in 2016 - a bigger margin than I remembered. 56-41 in 2012. Interesting. Driving through it, you would think it was ruby red, same as Grand County, Utah, which is 50/50.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Ok so here are the currently outstanding mail in ballots in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061083396259045377

The most important bits are:
Maricopa - 266k (going to Sinema currently but this was a Flake district 6 years ago - barely. She is doing well in the mail-ins so far though but it is a heterogenous county and huge so if you're a pessimist like me this is what you're worried about. If Sinema can even do 50-50 at this point though she's won.)
Pima - 60.8k (This is huge for Sinema. Last time they did a 20k update and it boosted Sinema by 7k. It is Sinema's strongest district overall and the fact it is second highest in votes left is very good.)
Pinal - 26.8k (This is good for McSally. She probably ran up her highest numbers here just because it is big and favored McSally 55-41. However, 55-41 isn't going to be nearly enough here, and like 3k came in early today and it barely made a dent in the margins)
Coconico - 9.6k (This county is even better for Sinema that Pima. It went 62-35 her favor on election night so you would expect a good gain here for her)
Navajo - 4k (It was 50-46 McSally on election night, and early voting is leaning Sinema overall so this probably won't do much in either direction)
Mohave - 2k (This is McSally's best county by percentages. 70 to 27 basically. But 2k is such a small number it won't really help at this point)

Overall, this is great for Sinema. Coconico and Pima have 70k between them, while counties favoring McSally only have 33k between them. For McSallly to win, she needs huge numbers in the remaining Maricopa votes. Like...60-40 basically. Possible, depending where the votes are from, but I'd say edge to Sinema for sure.

Coconino was historically a red county, until quite recently. It's the huge rural county in which the Grand Canyon is located. Last election it went blue and there is a trend of counties with national parks going blue, but 62-35 is way above what I would have expected there. Wouldn't count out a lot of the remaining votes going to McSally to make it more respectable a margin in the end.
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Xeybozn posted...

If marijuana's so popular that enforcing the laws would lead to a massive backlash, why not go ahead and legalize it at the federal level? Wouldn't that lead to massive gains in swing states and no losses in solid red states (which would still not allow marijuana and think the GOP is better)?

Republicans strictly follow the Hastert Rule - any idea must be supported by the majority of Republicans for positive action to be taken on it. Something that has the majority support of the country but not Republicans will get inaction one way or the other. This rule creates an incentive to be a Republican - so you'll have more input into what the ruling party does.
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And yeah you could probably send in the FBI to do mass arrests in California with no fallout but if you do it in swing states like CO and MI you jeopardize Republican control of the federal government.
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When the feds finally tried to enforce slavery in the North in the 1850s and especially after the Dred Scott case in 1857, they got a wave election in 1860 in response almost immediately that led to the end of slavery across the country. It's a political mistake.
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Sanctuary cities operate on the same principle that the North operated on for decades before the Fugitive Slave Act and Dred Scott case. The states are not required to help enforce federal law. In those days the federal government was very small, and neither willing nor able to send people to catch escaped slaves who had reached the North to enforce the federal law of slavery, so reaching a free state effectively made you free.
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Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

I think there's a good case for secession being a matter of right under the original constitution but not nullification. Either you are in the Union or not - can't pick and choose which federal laws to follow.

Doesn't a lot of states do this already with marijuana.

States are never required to enforce federal law. Nullification is affirmatively taking action to prevent federal enforcement of federal law - for example, SC tried to stop federal customs officials from collecting tariffs at SC ports.

Legalizing something expressly illegal at the federal level would seem to be nullifying the law.

It doesn't legalize it, strictly speaking. All it does is decriminalize it under state law. Jeff Sessions could have ordered the FBI to go to CA, CO, etc. and start arresting people at the marijuana stores, even the medicinal ones. He talked it about enough to make some credit card companies refuse to touch the business.
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Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

I think there's a good case for secession being a matter of right under the original constitution but not nullification. Either you are in the Union or not - can't pick and choose which federal laws to follow.

Doesn't a lot of states do this already with marijuana.

States are never required to enforce federal law. Nullification is affirmatively taking action to prevent federal enforcement of federal law - for example, SC tried to stop federal customs officials from collecting tariffs at SC ports.
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Also, up until the 17th amendment (direct election of senators) was passed, a majority of state legislatures could effectively shut down the federal government by installing a cabal of senators who would not agree to any bill funding the federal government at all.
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I think there's a good case for secession being a matter of right under the original constitution but not nullification. Either you are in the Union or not - can't pick and choose which federal laws to follow.
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It's the middle of the ASV folks. Let's goooooooo Frog!
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I don't want every vote counted equally. If you stand in line in the rain and the snow, your vote should count for more.
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Democrats like mail in ballots because they don't like going to the polls to vote. IMO GOP state legislatures should ban voting by mail unless there is a genuine reason, like being away from the district on election day.
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Ulti, you may be beyond help, but in case you aren't, the reason votes are coming in late in Arizona is because they allow for mail-in votes. 25% of all their votes are mail-in. These are favoring Sinema thus far. They aren't coming in from "blue areas", they come from all over the state with each county reporting. The reddest county in the state showed a 400 vote gain for Sinema just because of the nature of these votes.

The reason it is taking so long is because Arizona takes this seriously. If your signature doesn't match or looks a little off, they have to call and verify you intended to send the vote and it wasn't falsified. Votes will continue coming in probably until Tuesday.

In the last election, Flake went from up 5% on election night to up 3% by the end of this. It is entirely reasonable to assume such a close race could flip. In order for this to be a democratic conspiracy, it would literally have to involve every single county, in a state with a red governor, in a state with a mostly red legislature.

Yes and no. They only do curing in some counties. This is what they are filing against in Arizona. They want curing in traditionally Republican counties also or none at all to keep it uniform across the state.

Sounds like Bush v. Gore! I would be super happy to see that case cited as controlling precedent - count all the counties with the same procedure, or don't count at all.
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Yeah if Broward can't put together a ballot at this point that doesn't confuse people they should have to live with the results.
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Deal or no deal: CA, TX, and FL are all disenfranchised.
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Jakyl25 posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

I think that press conference helped Trump. Average Americans HATE the media, even ones that vote Democrat. They know it's biased.

On the off chance youre being sincere, I dont think anyone really cares if it helps or hurts Trump. We were discussing it from an ethical standpoint, not from the mindset of political game theory.

But that depends on the game theory.
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Don't worry, the Democrats will in all likelihood nominate someone almost as bad as Hillary in 2020. To prove they can win with such a candidate.
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I would never underestimate Congressional Democrats' ability to ruin their own prospects, but I can't see them not presenting a unified front in the House. It isn't like Republicans are suddenly going to try to compromise.
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Corrik posted...

The problem with the press is that they have log ago shed professionalism for sensationalism and doing whatever they can to make a story.

At the end of the day, while CNN should have a right to be there, that specific reporter doesn't. If he cannot follow directions and maintain professionalism, he doesn't have to be allowed there.

He won't be the first or the last president to be absolutely livid or annoyed with the press. He may have responded the strongest, but it is hardly the first to respond sharply. No matter the political affiliation.

CNN does not have the right to be there. If that reporter was unprofessional, he was probably following orders from management at CNN, which is sensationalist garbage.
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Manchin is a moderate who has a spine. That's very different from a leftist without a spine who gives away the farm to Republicans in the name of bipartisanship. Democrats would do well to start noticing the difference.
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Let's say we borrow 1 trillion dollars. How should we spend it?
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xp1337 posted...

Anyway, I may have more to say on this tomorrow when I/we have a better grasp on all the results since there are still a number of races outstanding/I'm still playing catch-up a bit on the time I missed.

But the Senate is really disappointing. Which seems kind of weird given the House is mostly performing within expectation. With the Senate results as it is, it does feel hollow to say "blue wave" but then you look at the popular vote and the House and historically I mean.. it technically is? I don't think I'm in favor of using the term (except mocking "RED WAVE" which is always okay.)

While I've backed away from the ledge I was nearing around 8:30 or whenever I made the decision to check the **** out of this topic, election coverage, and being awake I gotta say I still feel disappointed. Part of that is surely because as we all know (do we? Maybe not, I'm probably overestimating my own notability) I was high up on the optimistic end for how the night would turn out and we definitely didn't get there. We're hovering around my "Cynicism" forecast (which was around/slightly above Suprak's predix IIRC) so like... this outcome wasn't outside my range of expected outcomes but it still hurt to see it happen, especially since it felt kind of front-loaded with the Indiana and Florida (always florida) one-two punch.

But also because I think the Senate results - whatever reason you attribute to them - will be seen by Trump and the GOP (and make no mistake they are one-and-the-same and have been since 2016) will see it as validation for the appeals to race and fear that he was going hard on in the final weeks. And in certain areas that might not even be the wrong calculation, at a certain point the results just speak for themselves. And so I think they'll double-down on that strategy going forward. 2020 is going to be dark. And it's just so depressing to me to see that's where this country is heading. I've always thought - and said both before, during, and after - that Trump winning in 2016 meant we were heading down this path and that was probably the last real chance to change course... but a blue tsunami in 2018 was the secret emergency last resort breaks on that and even with a good night in the House, the Senate results keep it from being an indisputable repudiation. So here we go.

On a slightly more positive note (whatever I can muster of it, this was an alarmingly dark night for me) is that taking the House is significant going forward. We'll finally have oversight on this administration. The GOP committees have been a joke on this front (in the House at least, the Senate was more legit) and that has been remedied. Any of the worst legislative agenda from Trump will be halted. Though it was always a running joke, there will be no Wall. The ACA is safe... well, what still stands of it (barring lame-duck shenanigans and tbqh I'm not sure what goes on there. Maybe nothing, maybe chaos.) Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are safe and the House originates all spending so budgets should be saner. The Mueller investigation is safe because even in the worst case scenario (and I legit think it was plausible if the GOP held both chambers) that he is fired/Rosenstein is replaced the House can hire him and keep it going.

All things equal (i.e. ignoring the implausibility), I'd prefer the Senate over the House because of its power for confirmations, but gaining the House is still a huge deal.

Think I had something else to say, but Walker was just called as having lost and I lost my train of thought so let's cut it here for now.

The last chance to avoid this dark path was the 2016 Democratic primary. There is no way out now.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Whats the 2020 Senate map look like for Dems?

There is one seat held by a senator of the party which lost that state in the last presidential election, in the next 2 senate elections. There were around 10 today, almost all held by Democrats. The Republicans should have a permanent majority of 55+ seats in the Senate from their advantage in small states, it's more surprising that this hasnt happened yet.
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Jakyl25 posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

Jared Polis (Colorado) has become the US's first openly gay governor.

On the one hand, progress

On the other hand, its crazy that it took until 2018.

Its like when they said Blackburn is the first ever woman to be TN Senator. I did a spittake. Are there OTHER states that still havent had one?

No first world country has EVER had a woman from a liberal party as head of government. Ever. Only 4 conservatives.
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538 still has R's at 40% to hold House, I would question NBC calling it now. They called Florida for Gore too.
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Pence is Donald Trump's poison pill, his guarantee against being removed from office. It's a common strategy in business.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Interesting, NYT and CNN actually have the same vote counts in but are showing different percentages reporting. Maybe one is counting numbers of precincts and the other is weighting by population of those precincts or something?

For years, NYT would report a number of precincts in for Virginia that made it seems impossible for the Democrat to overcome the lead, and each time they would do it easily. Probably because the remaining precincts had some high population ones.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Corrik posted...

I wish democrats could just be so much less fucking hostile. I mean, we can be friends and buds and Converse and just believe different things. It isn't like we are out trying to force our will over yours on a personal level.

Homie, our Republican President frequently goes on stage in front of a crowd of supporters and says Democrats not only hate America, but want to destroy it.

If Democrats didn't frequently threaten people, he wouldn't be believed.
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HarrietTubgirl posted...

This love-fest is a timely alignment with the realization that the Democrats will never have power again hmmm

It will be gone long before the next election when they'll hype up another blue wave.
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Paratroopa1 posted...

pxlated posted...

Paratroopa1 posted...

I'm sorry for being an asshole, I don't want to make enemies here

I'm not in a good place right now

it's cool. neither am i. i shouldn't have been mean.

that kind of rhetoric just drives me crazy

I don't really believe your parents are evil

it just frustrates me when people who SHOULD be good people, end up supporting an agenda that is anything but, and even when it's through ignorance or through apathy it's no excuse to me - ignorance and apathy are anti-virtues for me, not something that makes a person bad in their own right, but a failure of a person attempting to be good

I have this frustration with my grandparents, who are kind and gentle people who I love a lot but they trust the republican party a lot and even in 2018 I can't pry them away from this, despite the fact that it doesn't seem to serve their interests at all, being that they're pro nationalized healthcare, pro LGBT rights, pro environment, and anti-fascism and white supremacy (although they have bought hook line and sinker for the scary-immigrants vibe going on right now which sucks)

Have you considered that their view of the GOP might be more accurate than yours, or that they feel voting GOP is the best way to achieve those goals? I mean, they obviously think so.

Edit: I also share all of the positions you mentioned, and support Republicans today.
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Corrik posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

I wanna know who are these 20,000 Nelson + DeSantis voters

This may be triggering to the Conservatives in this topic who think any mention of this is bs, but I suspect a smidge of racism is involved.

So are you saying democrats are racist? Cuz if they aren't voting for gillum only cuz he is black but voting for Dems elsewise... They are democrats...

Should I say it or wait for Ulti and MWC?
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And if you cut anyone out of your life over politics you have a negative impact on whatever it is you support. Seriously, you could donate a million dollars to the RNC and man phone lines for them and you would not come close to the benefit you do for them by cutting Republicans out of your life over politics.
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Democrats will not learn except by having reality pounded into them. The problem is we only have elections every 730 days and the other 729 days the Democrats keep convincing themselves a blue wave is coming.

A blue wave will come when Democrats change how they treat people who don't agree with them on all important issues. Not until then.
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Jakyl25 posted...

HarrietTubgirl posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

HarrietTubgirl posted...

Its looking like Florida could restore voting rights for most convicted felons, according to The New York Times. With 66 percent of precincts reporting, Amendment 4 has 64 percent of the vote.

Something we should all celebrate tbh

One thing I found that was odd to me given your (admirable!) stance on this is that your boy Mitch loves felon disenfracnchisement

Aren't those all determined at the state level?

I was just speaking ideologically

Mitch wants to aggregate power now. Once the Republic is safe and secure we will embark on the project of making it better. But first, the Democrats have to be crushed.
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We've seen this on Gamefaqs over and over. The first hour of actual results is worth about 100x as much as all the past results and analysis put together. Actual probability of Rs holding the house is probably over 50% right now.
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