Lurker > MasterMoltar

Kleenexs Analysis

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite all the craziness that went on in the Legends bracket, at the end of the day, were still here with Link vs. Cloud in the finals. Its nice that Cloud seems like hes still probably the #2 guy on the site, but its also disappointing that Link is so far ahead of the field at this point that it doesnt matter. We already saw these guys go at it a week or two ago, and Cloud had his worst performance against Link but a lot. Like, a shocking amount. Im hopeful he can do a bit better here, maybe some Link anti-votes, maybe some CLOUDMENTUM from winning 2 matches in a row, taking out the villainous Mario and finally toppling Zelda. He still doesnt have a chance unless something truly strange happens.

And seeing as its the finals, a quick reflection on the contest as a whole. It was pretty good. I think the Legend bracket was a great idea, and while I do wish we were able to avoid the repeat matches, they actually ended up providing us with some good entertainment - between the Mega Man/Pikachu flip, and the almost-but-not-quite victory by Samus over Mario. There were a ton of super close matches, more than weve ever had in a single contest. The regular bracket was pretty fun too, though it would have been nice to see it out to its actual conclusion (though at this point it doesnt seem like theres any doubt that Zelda would have won in the absence of the Legends bracket). I definitely wouldnt mind seeing this format again going forward, though maybe without the week long break that really killed the momentum of things in the middle.

So thats about it. Thanks to everyone for reading all this nonsense again. Good job Link on your 7th (7th!) contest win, and good job Crono for not breaking the NN for the first time in 10 years!

Kleenexs Prediction: 7-time GameFAQs Character Battle Champion, and the Greatest Video Game Character in History - THE UNDISPUTED KING, Link with 58%

Guest's Analysis - Hbthebattle

Lets be real here, no matter who wins todays match Link wins. He wins every time. Such is the LAW.

Instead, im going to talk about Link this contest. He SFFed and destroyed Pikachu and Ganondorf, and while Cloud and Zelda can resist him better its not by much. Meanwhile, every other character in the contest has the capability to hold an interesting match with an unexpected result. Who predicted that Zelda would be this strong this year? Who predicted Sephiroth losing to Tifa, a historically unthinkable result. These matches are perfect examples of the enthralling ability of variability and interesting results. Meanwhile, the only interesting thing Link has done is not squash Zelda as quickly as he did Ganondorf.

Im not saying Link should be completely barred from contests outright, but I do think him not being here would make the Legends bracket have a far less predictable ending. Can anyone definitely say they would know who the winner would be if Link wasnt here? No, no they could not. Link is in a weight class of his own- nothing beyond a powerful rally can beat him. What I suggest is maybe just have him be the reigning champion or some shit, and each contests winner gets the chance to take him out.

Im just saying, maybe this match wouldnt be a snooze if we tried it.

62.34% on Zelda

60.22% on Cloud

Crew Consensus: Link Always Wins
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transiences Analysis

Barring a weird comeback, we've got Link vs. Cloud II, or XIV depending on how you want to categorize it. There's honestly nothing to say at this point. Link is about to put up the most dominant contest run of his storied career. (That's maybe overselling it.)

This is probably a little closer than the last matchup since Cloud has become somewhat of a plucky underdog, but this won't be close outside of the first 5, maybe 10 minutes. Most likely just the first 2 or 3.

I enjoyed the innovation of the loser's bracket, but if we have another character battle I hope it doesn't return. This last week has really dragged on as we've seen rematch after rematch.

transience's prediction: Link with 60.24%

Leonharts Analysis

Unfortunately, I dont have time to wait and see who will come out on top between Cloud and Zelda since Ill be working all day, but the result should be just about the same either way. Weve already seen Link 60/40 both of these characters, and theres no reason to believe that result changes. They might do a little bit better than last time just as a last-ditch effort to try to get Link to lose, but itd be a minimal improvement at best.

So I guess I should take the time to say thanks to everyone who read all these writeups this year, even though this is probably the worst Ive ever done on the Crew! Thanks as always to Moltar for running this every contest and for letting me be a part of it for the last several ones. Its one of my favorite parts of contest season, even this year when we were having to churn out 4 writeups per day half the time! Until next time!

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife/Zelda (a.k.a. Not-Link)

Leonharts Prediction: Link with 59.99%
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Final Battle: Link vs. Cloud

Monikas Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf
Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu
Legends Round 3 - 60.52% vs. Cloud Strife
Legends Round 4 - 63.56% vs. Zelda

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link
Losers Round 4 - 50.24% vs. Mario
Losers Finals - ~50.80% vs. Zelda

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7378

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: You know, it kinda sucks to be the creative type...It feels like the Crew works so hard but get almost nothing for it. You know, like artists, writers, actors...It's sad because there's so much beautiful talent in the world, but most of it goes unseen...and unpaid. I guess that just means there's a huge surplus of creativity, huh? Kind of makes you feel like you're just not special at all...But that's fine! You're supposed to just write for yourself anyway, right?

Yeah...

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Link 60%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Link - 60.10%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Zelda clowns either one of these fools. This is my Official Analysis.

Kleenex's Prediction: Zelda with 51%

Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

Zelda should likely win the next match, but it's not as clear if she can maintain her bandwagoned strength after losing to Link. The closest situation I could think of is Mewtwo in 2013 where he lost to Draven, but still appeared to keep his bandwagoned strength in the bonus match with Pikachu and Mega Man. That bonus match was very weird, as Mewtwo lost less than 2% for the rest of the match after the board vote, which isn't consistent with typical bandwagon trends.

The current Cloud/Mario match is still too close to say who moves on, but either one of them should lose to Zelda next. I don't really see Zelda losing the next match because hentai rallies will save her if it's very close.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Solid Snake

Luster Soldier's Second Chance Bracket: Cloud Strife

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Zelda - 50.64%

Crew Consensus: who knows but probably zelda
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transiences Analysis

With Cloud and Mario doing a bit of a repeat of their 2002 match, it's kinda impossible to forecast this one. Cloud and Mario are very different opponents for Zelda! Cloud already outperformed Zelda on Link but that's already a weird situation.

Zelda's worst performance was probably her match against Snake. I think Cloud would beat Snake, and so I kinda think Cloud beats Zelda. Then again, Zelda demolished Squall and I tend to use those kinds of comparisons when trying to figure out how the audience would shift. Mario beat Seph 59/41 and this match is 50/50 so maybe I should stop doing that.

As for Mario, I think everyone is collectively sick of his crap. It was a good feeling when he rocked Sephiroth so hard and seemed like a clear #2, but he went and barely limped over the finish line vs. Samus, lost a close one to Zelda and is now doing the same thing vs. Cloud. That's four matches in a row at 52/48 or closer. Mario's last second heroics yet again vs. Samus soured people on him, and seeing a Zelda/Mario runback would be pretty disappointing. If he wins here, I think he gets crushed under the Zelda bandwagon.

Barring Mario's BS, I think Cloud wins this match. The chances of Mario's BS is probably like 80%, but if Cloud wins here, I think that upset could propel him into the finals to get assassinated by Link again. Watch out for that plucky Final Fantasy VII underdog!

transience's predictions:

Zelda over Mario with 53.44%
Cloud over Zelda with 52.33%

Leonharts Analysis

Sadly, it looks like Cloud is going to fall short against Mario here. I guess theres still a chance he could pull it off, but its trending in the wrong direction currently, so Im assuming this is going to be Zelda vs. Mario at this point. I think Mario has a better chance of beating Zelda than Cloud does just because the hierarchy will let him keep it fairly close to start with, as well as the fact that he lost the first time. I think a rematch that was close the first time favors the loser, as we saw with Mega Man/Pikachu and Mario/Samus. At the same time, the once heroic Mario has become the villain in the eyes of many once again, so he may face some anti-voting from the registered users, which could make a difference when the match is bound to be close.

If Cloud is here instead, I honestly think his best chance to win is smart voters not wanting to see Link vs. Zelda again when we just saw it a couple days ago. On the other hand, seeing Link vs. Cloud again isnt exactly appealing either, which is another reason to favor Mario against Zelda since we at least havent seen that matchup yet this year.

Leonharts Vote: Zelda

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 51.44%
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Losers Bracket: Finals Zelda vs Cloud Strife or Mario

Monitars Analysis

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake
Legends Round 2 - 56.45% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog
Legends Round 3 - 50.91% vs. Mario
Legends Round 4 - 36.44% vs. Link

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link
Losers Round 4 - 57.79% vs. Crono
Losers Round 5 - 50.00% vs. Mario

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus Aran
Legends Round 3 - 49.09% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 4 - 50.03% vs. Samus Aran
Losers Round 5 - 50.00% vs. Cloud

See Kleenexs write-up below.

Monitars Voting Tip of the Day: Sometimes when I talk to people who are impressed by my write-ups, they say things like 'I could never do that'. It's really depressing, you know? As someone who loves more than anything else to share the joy of exploring matches......it pains me when people think that being good just comes naturally. That's how it is with everything, not just write-ups.

When you try something for the first time, you're probably going to suck at it. It can be pretty disheartening to put so much time and effort into a write-up, and then you realize youre wrong. But that tends to happen when you're always comparing yourself to the top Crew members. When you reach right for the stars, they're always gonna be out of your reach, you know? The truth is, you have to climb up there, step by step. And whenever you call your first correct prediction, first you look back and see how far you've gotten...And then you look ahead and realize how much more there is to go.

So, sometimes it can help to set the bar a little lower...Try to find a match you think is pretty good, but not world-class. And you can make that your own personal goal. It's also really important to understand the scope of what you're trying to do. If you jump right into a huge match and you're still amateur, you'll never get it right. So if we're talking about writing, a novel might be too much at first. Why not try some easy matches? The great thing about easy matches is that you can focus on just one prediction that you want to get right. It's such a good learning experience and stepping stone.

Oh, one more thing...Write-ups aren't something where you just reach into your heart and something beautiful comes out. Just like drawing and painting, it's a skill in itself to learn how to express what you have inside. That means there are methods and guides and basics to it! Reading up on past Crew topics can be super eye-opening. That sort of planning and organization will really help prevent you from getting overwhelmed and giving up. And before you know it...You start sucking less and less.

Nothing comes naturally. Our society, our art, everything - it's built on thousands of years of human innovation. So as long as you start on that foundation, and take it step by step...You, too, can do amazing things.

Monitars Prediction of the Day: Zelda 50%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Kleenexs Analysis

A rematch 16 years in the making. Mario managed to cheat his way to another close win yesterday, and now Cloud has a chance to put down the thief. In most years, this match really wouldn't even be a question. Cloud was pretty much always strong (except in 2002!), but this year its a lot tougher to say. Cloud is currently looking like he could still potentially be the #2 guy on the site. As pathetic as it is that #2 is not even worth 40% on Link, thats where were at in 2018. Its possible that the scars of Mario/Samus are still real and Mario gets some anti-votes from that display. That being said, Mario and Samus both eviscerated Tifa and Sephiroth, and how much better is Cloud than them, really? Then again, Mario lost to Zelda, who is currently doing worse on Link than Cloud did, so WHO KNOWS ANYTHING ANYMORE. Picking Cloud here because fuck Mario tbqh.

Kleenexs Prediction: Cloud with 51%

Guest's Analysis - spooky96

Not a tough decision here, pre-contest I was pretty hyped for this match and thought it could be my bracket-saving pick as I have Cloud winning today. There's absolutely no way Cloud wins here, anything non-Nintendo has looked pathetic all contest barring Tifa. Cloud and Zelda have pretty similar numbers on Link, so I'm guessing that does translate to Cloud being significantly weaker than Zelda. It's kinda disappointing to see that Cloud won't be able have his revenge after all these years. Mario already beat Sephiroth with 59% so it's fitting he gets to beat Cloud too, killing off the last non-Nintendo character. I'd say it'll be something like 44-45ish match with Cloud making a respectable % comeback and may finish with like 47%.

Mario with 53.89%

Crew Consensus: 2002 all over again in a 3-2 split
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Ah, the 16 year runback. Cloud and Mario have shared polls but they've never been especially fair. This is the runback of one of the 3 or 4 biggest contest matches of all time, 2002's Cloud vs. Mario match that happened on the day Mario Sunshine came out and had a massive rally from some site that probably doesn't exist anymore because it was called Planet GameCube. Because of this match, it was hard to see that Cloud was actually a killer, and we still to this day don't totally know if Square just boosted a ton in 2003 or if the rally disguised it. Nothing got within 40% of 2002 Link, a refrain that feels especially resonant today.

For our more nerdy audience, this match is hugely important because it's the only true chance to compare the top and bottom of the bracket. There's so much Nintendo that it's hard to see the forest from the trees. Cloud got rocked by Link, but Zelda is taking it even worse today despite leading for the first 10 minutes. The consensus has been Mario and Samus over Cloud, but Zelda's kind of thrown a wrench into that. Is Link SFFing Zelda, and if so, wouldn't you expect it to be worse than this? It's hard to say.

I guess this match comes down to two comparisons:could Mario get 57% on Crono? And could Cloud reverse the 59/41 Mario/Sephiroth result? If Samus had managed to overcome Mario yesterday, I would feel a lot better about picking the Nintendo character. Samus has always shown well and Cloud has clearly lost a step from his glory years. Samus probably is the true #2 character, or maybe #3 if you throw Zelda into the mix. That would have been such a cool losers final matchup.

Mario vs. Cloud is a different story. I think Mario still wins, if only because I can't see Cloud overcoming the gap between Mario and Sephiroth. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Cloud's projected to beat Bowser by about as much as Mario beat Sephiroth. I'm not picking Bowser over Sephiroth and so I cannot go with Cloud here. I have a temptation, and maybe Leon will take it and run with it, but I'll go with the stupid plumber who always pulls BS matches out of his butt over Cloud yet again. Prove me wrong, Cloud. I'd rather see Cloud/Zelda than Mario/Zelda. Yick.

transience's prediction: Mario with 52.82%

Leonharts Analysis

This is a match we havent seen since the original Character Battle. Its kind of strange that weve managed to avoid a rematch for so long considering how long these two have been among our strongest non-Link characters. I thought Id have a better grasp on how strong these two would be by this point in the contest, but Im still not really sure. The only non-SFF match Mario has had so far was against Sephiroth, where he looked very impressive (right up until Sephy lost to Tifa anyway). Then he lost to Zelda and should have lost to Samus, but theres really no shame in either of those things this year.

Weve seen a little bit more out of Cloud (although I wish we had gotten to see him against Mega Man instead of facing Crono twice). Hes way out of Links league now, but so is everybody else. Its still hard to say where exactly he is now, although hes certainly separated himself from the lower half of the Noble Nine, if nothing else. Where is he in relation to Mario? Its hard to say, but in the current environment, Mario is probably the safer bet of the two.

But Im going to pick Cloud because what else have I got to lose at this point? Its also the only really good result left on the board this year, which means its definitely not gonna happen, but whatever! Regardless, I think Cloud should be close enough that its worth the risk, although I thought the same thing about Snake/Samus, too!

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Cloud Strife with 51.61%
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Losers Bracket: Semifinals Cloud Strife vs Mario

Monikas Analysis

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link
Losers Round 4 - 57.79% vs. Crono

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus Aran
Legends Round 3 - 49.09% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 4 - 50.03% vs. Samus Aran

Link
Samus
Zelda

All characters Id take over Cloud right now. You might be able to add Snake to this list, but Ill give Cloud the benefit of the doubt for now and say Cloud wins that.

The key thing here is that the top Nintendo dogs are stronger than Cloud right now on a Smash-high NintendoFAQs. Link just beat Cloud by more than ever, and Mario beat Seph by more than ever. Cloud has less of a reason to drop than Seph because of Smash, but that extra Nintendo support falls apart against the king of Nintendo.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Link >> Samus > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Crono = Mega Man > Sephiroth > Sonic

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Now, its been awhile since I, um, read any hentai, and Ive never read any involving any Nintendo franchise, but I would have to assume that a fairly large portion of hentai containing Zelda probably also contains Link. Assuming that were not just talking about that stuff on *banned site* where its just a bunch of (sometimes literally) disembodied cocks gang-raping whatever girl is being fetishized. And thus, if anyone gets to fuck Zelda over, it should be Link.

And come on now. Its Link. Whens the last time he looked bad in a match? Well, okay, Snake battled him somewhat hard in the 2013 bonus match, but weird things can happen in bonus matches (see: Jay Solano, ?-Block). He honestly looked incredible even in defeat against Draven, and the round before that he SFFed Yoshi into losing to Raiden. Honestly, I want to call for this upset because Im still in awe of the result that finished up a few hours before I started writing this, that being Zeldas win over Mario, but every time I get close to even calling for it to be close Links entire history comes crashing down on me. The biggest reason why 4way X-stats are unreliable is that when characters A, B, C, and D are in a match, the X-stat value you get for character C (who finished third) by calculating through character B (who finished second) are different than youd get by calculating directly against character A (the champion). And thats just for within a single match! Yet despite the fact that 4way percentages tend to be more closely bunched together (that is to say, its a lot easier to break 40% on a character in a 4way than in a 1v1), the best number any Nintendo character has put up on Link directly was in fact in a 1v1, and that was37.94% by Samus in 2003, the same year that Cloud managed to beat Link. But its hardly just Nintendo; there have only been five characters to ever break 40% on Link directly no matter the format, and two of them were L-Block and Draven. The other three, of course, are Cloud, Sephiroth, and Snake. (No, Jay Solano doesnt count.) The closest anyone else has come was when Crono got 39.67% on him directly in a fourwayin which the other two characters were Mario and Samus.

And as we saw last round, not even Cloud has what it takes to break 40% on Link anymore. Rallies or no rallies, Zelda shouldnt be able to outdo that number. And yetthe first time Link faced Ganondorf, he more than septupled him. This year, he couldnt even manage the quadrupling. Add in the rallies, add in the registered voter bonus which should favor the bandwagoned contestant over LINK ALWAYS WINS, and maybe, just maybe, Zelda can break through with a percentage beyond what Samus or Mario (whose best performance on Link isnt far behind Samuss, albeit in a 4way37.91% in 2007 with Seph and Vincent as the other two) have ever done. Nah, I cant do it. I wanted to make a crazy upset pick, and I feel like even predicting Zelda to break 40% would qualify as crazy, but I cant do it.

Link with 62.22% of the vote
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But theres a much bigger obstacle to taking this upset, and thats that ITS FREAKING LINK! As I stated elsewhere, Link is kind of the Superman of Character Battles. In the absence of kryptonite (read: massive rallies that bring together larger blocks of the internet than our puny site), hes just plain invincible. And he is especially rough on his fellow Nintendo characters. This is the 18th overall contest, and of the previous 17, the strongest available representative of The Legend of Zelda has won 11 times. One of those losses was Sephiroth > Ganondorf in the Villains Contest, which is of course totally not Links fault. 3 of them were ralliesL-Block, Draven, and Undertale. And Draven only narrowly managed to win and may have resorted to cheating. That leaves only two clear losses: Cloud > Link in 2003 and Final Fantasy VII > Ocarina of Time in 2004. So its certainly possible, or was at one time. But due to their strength, Link-Cloud is the most contested match in Character Battle history (granted, there was also some silly thing called the Battle Royale in 2006 that ran up the count), and after Cloud won the initial match, Link has beaten him 12 times in a row.

Which, again, is irrelevant because Link isnt going up against an outside force! Link may be the star, but Zelda is the title character. Occasionally Link gets his name in the title too, but thats only happened four times and only twice does the title make it explicit that Link is a character. If anyone could pull off the upset, its Zelda. Is there any sort of history that would suggest that its likely?



Theyve never had a 1v1, but they were in a 4way together and Zelda only got 13.19% on Link directly. She did, however, manage to avoid getting doubled by a 4chan fad that is also a Pokmon, and said 4chan fad that is also a Pokmon didnt avoid getting doubled by Vincent Valentine so clearly that poll is not remotely relevant in 2018. But, uh, props to 2007 Zelda for at least outperforming 2004 Ganondorf against Link even though there was a 4chan fad and a fellow near-elite (at the time) in the poll, right?

And yet, hentai rallies. How exactly would hentai rallies affect this match? After all, it takes two to tango, and Im reminded of Ron Whites bit on homophobia. TV Tropes was nice enough to have the whole exchange quoted on his page so Ill quote it for you.

Ron: Do ya like porn?
Homophobe: Yeah, I like porn. You know that.
Ron: Do you only watch scenes with two women?
Homophobe: Naw, I like to watch a man and a women making love.
Ron: Oh. Do you care if the man has a half-flaccid penis?
Homophobe: Naw, man, I like big, hard, throbbing co! *gets a horrified face, stops to think about what he said* I did not know that about myself.
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transiences Analysis

Man, what do you do here? What a bizarre final. Zelda clearly has a bandwagon behind her at this point. She's grown in strength from the character who only got 70% on The Boss. Surely Mario could have managed more? Then again, who knows. It's tough to get those astronomical numbers this year. Everything is so flat, with the exception of Link.

This is obviously a fanbase overlap match and Link already quadrupled Ganondorf. Zelda is different though. She should get doubled but, weirdly enough, she's the force of change in the contests this year. She's the one beating Snake and Sonic and Mario and probably Mario again. In a neutral environment, this is probably a doubling, but I think Zelda does better than that since she's new blood, or more accurately, gamefaqs's idea of new blood

transience's prediction: Link with 59.94%

Leonharts Analysis

So this is where weve arrived after ten contests, huh? Literally Link vs. Zelda in the finals of the Legends Division. I wouldnt be surprised if Allen saw this and decided it was time to wash his hands of Character Battles (or at least expand the field, darn it!). I dont even know what to make of this match. As incredible of a run as Zelda has had (perhaps the greatest run in contest history, period), its hard to imagine she can even come close to Link.

Really, this match is all about how well Zelda holds up. At the very least, she shouldnt fold as hard as Ganondorf did. Can she do better than Pikachu, even though this is a same series matchup? She might have built up enough of a bandwagon at this point to counteract the normal amount of SFF Link would apply in this situation. This is all just guesswork at this point though, so whatever.

Leonharts Vote: Zelda

Leonharts Prediction: Link with 62.26%

Kleenexs Analysis

Here it is, the final everyone has been waiting for, Zelda vs. Zelda. The fact that Zelda is even here is nothing short of miraculous, and Ill be honest Ive enjoyed her run and Im kinda happy to see her here, despite the obvious homogeneity of this match. She has been able to rise to her opponents level a few times this contest, and against pretty much anyone else I think she could do it again, but not here. The King will not be denied, and Zelda is going to have to have to step down from the throne to allow Link his rightful place at the top. There are three ways Zelda has a shot here - 1) A massive amount of rSFF, the likes of which weve never seen, 2) She catches a pretty big rally, or 3) People still dont know that Links name is Link, and they see him in the picture and vote for Zelda en masse. All pretty unlikely. Shell still probably do better than Cloud, though.

Kleenexs prediction: Link with 60%

Tsunamis Analysis

Welcome back to HentaiFAQs! Under normal circumstances, you wouldnt even entertain the idea of a side character losing to the main character in a same franchise SFF matchup (unless Tidus ever manages to run into another FFX character, and even then Id probably pick Tidus against anyone other than Auron even though I firmly believe hes indirectly weaker than at least two other characters from his game.) But this is a different world we live in, one where Noble Niners can get TJFd by characters from their own games. Of course, you have to take a little caution with that one because Sephiroth is the lone villain of the Noble Nine and hero > villain in most cases, but that was still a reversal of past results.
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Legends Bracket: Finals Link vs. Zelda

Monikas Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf
Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu
Legends Round 3 - 60.52% vs. Cloud Strife

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake
Legends Round 2 - 56.45% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog
Legends Round 3 - 50.91% vs. Mario

Well most of us expected this finals for the winners bracket to be two Nintendo characters. Very few expected it to be two Nintendo characters that star in the same series. What a weird conclusion for the contest this ended up being.

Percentage-wise, I have no clue what to expect here. Zeldas natural strength is probably what she got on Snake and Sonic, but shes definitely gained a bandwagon since then to beat Mario. That bandwagon is definitely going to continue here. At this point, there is a non-zero chance for her to win the entire thing.

but her opponent is the main hero from the same game shes from so sff?!??!

I wouldnt be surprised if this hyped up Zelda over-performs on Link or gets doubled because SFF. Im going to guess its the former though, as the Zelda bandwagon just seems too real, and I think people will want to try to break the LAW.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Zelda!! Ehehe, wouldnt it be fun if she won?

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Link 57%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Kleenexs Analysis

I cant shake the feeling Ive seen this match before. Oh, thats right, now I remember.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1780-tournament-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2129-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2566-battle-royale-final

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3856-contest-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

Not even counting the times they clashed in the 4-way contests. This match has gotten progressively worse for Cloud each time, minus a very minor upswing in 2010, and I dont see that trend reversing. Link has had Clouds number ever since that first match, and he still does. The only question about the match today is if well see these two again in the grand finals. Mario and Samus both looked very good, and they have a good shot at upsetting Cloud in the losers bracket if he doesnt show up today. If he can keep this around the usual 46%-47%, I think hes still the favorite to make it to the finals to lose to Link again, but if he start pushing things close to 40%, then its going to be a bad time for him once he runs into the other Nintendo dudes.

Kleenexs Prediction: Link with 55%

Crew Consensus: Link beats Cloud.again
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transiences Analysis

By my math, this is the 13th Link vs. Cloud matchup in contest history. 14 if you include that stupid rivalry rumble but fortunately no one does. That contest sucked bad.

Cloud won the first matchup and Link is 11-0 since. This honestly hasn't been a 'rivalry' since, oh, 2007 or so. Then again, the two haven't really matched up since 2010 since Cloud lost to a random Pokemon during the great weirdness of 2013. Sometimes crazy contest results make them less memorable because I have absolutely no memory of that happening. There was a weird result every other day towards the end of that goofy contest. Draven didn't kill that contest - Pokemon killing off legends left and right did. I don't mind a good Pokemon result but it can't be every match!

Anyway, back to Link and Cloud. There's really only two ways that Link drops this. One is if people are just so sick of Link winning that they mass vote for Cloud, the only guy who's ever truly been able to stand up to the king. Dravens and L-Blocks don't count. The only true contest loss Link ever had was Cloud, and it was back in Bush's first term.

The other is if an absolutely monster FF7 remake trailer drops during tonight's Game Awards. I honestly don't even think that would move the needle enough - there's just too much of a gap. You would need a Cloud vs. Sephiroth battle in the Nibelheim fire to even get close. Oh, and I guess Smash 5 technically comes out at the end of this match too. Yeah, you can cross that one off. They'll hide FF7R away until KH3 is out so that fans pay attention to that game. (The actual game to watch out for there is Metroid Prime 4 as Samus's final weapon vs. Mario.)

Cloud may have his best start ever tonight as anti-Link sentiment is strong with the early vote this year. It might even counteract Cloud's decades-long awful opening minutes! I kinda feel like Crono and Mega Man is a tossup, while Link put 68% on Pikachu and Cloud put 56% on Crono. There could be some Nintendo overlap there with Pikachu but it would have to be really significant for Cloud to get within a couple of percentage points. I'll give Cloud the benefit of the doubt of keeping it close because it's the classic Link vs. Cloud matchup, but this probably isn't ever in doubt. I think people feel like Cloud is closer to the #5 character right now than #1.

transience's prediction: Link with 56.61%

Leonharts Analysis

There have only been two Character Battles where we havent seen Link vs. Cloud in some form: 2002 and 2013. You know the drill at this point. The gap between the two is probably the biggest its been since the first contest. The only possible difference is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two at this point. As such, I wouldnt be surprised if Cloud holds up better than most people expect, or Link might just blow him out of the water like how OoT nearly 60/40d FFVII in that bonus poll in 2015. Unfortunately, he cant actually win here, but I am intrigued to see what the final margin looks like.

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Link with 54.54%
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Legends Bracket: Round 3 Link vs. Cloud Strife

Monikas Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf
Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono

Weve seen this match enough to know how it plays out by now without explaining why it will in 10,000 words. There was a time way back when these two were close in strength, but since 2004, Link has been the top dog.

Now, the gap should be larger than ever because Link is still very relevant. Hes coming off of Breath of the Wild, plus the site is skewing towards Nintendo with Smash coming out. Cloud doesnt seem to be the #2 guy and more like a mid-Noble Nine character. Maybe since its Link/Cloud, itll be close like it always has been. The times have changed though.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: I dont have any rivals! I just get rid of anyone that opposes me, ahaha! Gosh, I sounded like a real villain there!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Link 57%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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MAX on Snake
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transiences Analysis

Unless the Sephiroth win put a massive bandwagon at Tifa's back, she's not turning this one around. Samus already had a super impressive performance against Mario, one that is beyond anything she should have reasonably been expected to do pre-contest. It's crazy to think that Samus > Mario is more likely than Tifa > Samus but it is. There are very, VERY few things amongst the NN that I would consider mortal locks but Mario > Samus is as close as I would get. I would sooner see Cloud beating Link than Mario over Samus pre-contest and yet here we are.

Just... don't do some weird zero suit picture. I can't take my queen struggling after coming so close to the promised land. If Samus beats Mario and faces Link in the final, you have to expect some kind of massive overperformance there, right? Especially when she gets a new game/remake/collection/whatever announced in two days OH YEAH MARIO IS GOING DOWN BELIEVE

transience's prediction: Samus with 58.11%

Leonharts Analysis

Were seeing a couple of rematches right now. The result in the close match is flipping, but the result in the match that wasnt very close is pretty much staying the same. I dont know if Tifa will have any momentum from taking out Sephiroth, but even then, it wont be worth enough for her to get close to Samus after how decisive their first match was. Tifas had a great contest, but this is sadly where it ends for her.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Samus Aran with 58.17%

Kleenexs Analysis

Samus looked pretty dang good against Mario. Tifa did great to take out Sephiroth and upend the Final Fantasy VII hierarchy, but I have a difficult time seeing her being able to flip this result. Samus has just looked too good, and reversing a 60-40 match doesnt happen overnight (or three nights). Tifa has done great this year, but this is the end of the road.

Kleenexs Prediction: Samus with 58%

Crew Consensus: Metroid Prime 4 when
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Losers Bracket: Round 2 Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart

Monikas Analysis

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario

Tifa
Legends Round 1 - 41.07% vs. Samus Aran
Losers Round 1 - 52.33% vs. Sephiroth

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look good if we nailed this match twice.

Of the matches today







You're such a good listener.
I really love that about you.
Sometimes I'm afraid that I'm rambling or talking about boring things.
It makes me kind of self-conscious when I'm having conversation.
But I don't feel that way with you.
Like, I don't think anyone else could make me feel this way.
You really are special.
I don't want anyone to tell you otherwise.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hey...! I don't think you should be doing that! You know what I'm talking about. I really caught you doing something naughty here.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Samus 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

I had Sonic over Snake for most of the bracketmaking period.. in winners, of course, because I wasn't omniscient enough to see Zelda as a top 5 character coming. I've been thinking for the last couple of days how crazy it is that our true semifinal in this contest is Link, Cloud and Mario -- arguably the 3 most notable characters in contest history -- and Zelda. It's just weird.

Anyway, I was really down on Snake because he just feels so out of touch in 2018, but clearly it's Sonic who's actually the fallen idol. How many guys beat Sonic now? Kirby does. Bowser probably does. PIkachu does. Zelda already did. Luigi, X, Tifa, Alucard, Vivi -- where does it stop? I thought Sonic Mania might be enough to keep him relevant, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that Sonic (and MM11, for that matter) are only there for existing fans. I don't think Sonic Mania was converting regular people into being Sonic believers, nor was it really boosting him up in people's hierarchies. Opinions of Sonic are largely baked in at this point and it would take something truly revolutionary to change that. Snake can drop but unless he drops off the map, he's still better than Sonic.

I wonder how we feel if Snake beats Zelda's percentage here?

transience's prediction: Snake with 57.79%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, weve got two points of comparison for these two, and they both overwhelmingly favor Snake. Oddly enough, the match where Snake had his sprite against Auron projects a bigger win than the match with Zelda. Regardless of how you look at it, its hard to find an argument for Sonic winning or even keeping it all that close. They just havent been on the same level since Snake got into Smash, and that hasnt changed.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 56.95%

Kleenexs Analysis

Not much to discuss here. Zelda crushed Sonic and went even with Snake. Sonic has looked like junk. Im still not sure exactly where I put Snake in the NN rankings at this point, but its definitely ahead of Sonic. Gotta lose fast.

Kleenexs Prediction: Snake with 56%

Crew Consensus: Snake does what Nintendid.
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Losers Bracket: Round 2 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Solid Snake

Monikas Analysis

Sonic
Legends Round 1 - 54.32% vs. Auron
Legends Round 2 - 43.55% vs. Zelda

Snake
Legends Round 1 - 49.68% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 1 - 61.48% vs. Auron

Those previous Legend and Losers matches speak for themselves here. Snake and Zelda are about equal, Sonic is a good deal behind them. Id expect Snake to do about as well as Zelda did on Sonic.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hedgehogs fighting snakes? I thought this was a Character Battle, not an animal battle!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Snake 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Unlike Pikachu/Mega, this match wasn't particularly close. I don't feel like Bowser really has any pull this year so I can't see a bandwagon forming around him after holding off Alucard of all dudes. I'll say it again - I'd feel better picking Bowser here if we had Smash 5 out, but as it is, he's just another dude. Crono probably wins by more after a somewhat encouraging performance vs. Cloud? What a dumb writeup this is. Sorry. Blame the bracketmaker for not slotting dudes on opposite sides of the bracket for the purpose of making it easier to get a double elimination bracket right.

transience's prediction: Crono with 55.63%

Leonharts Analysis

Like with Mega Man/Pikachu, I can imagine a lot of people voting the other way just in hopes of scoring an upset. I dont know if itll be enough to actually flip the result though. I guess its also possible the result is pretty much the same or Crono just wins by more. Its hard to come up with any interesting analysis about a 55/45 match we just saw a few days ago!

Leonharts Vote: Bowser

Leonharts Prediction: Crono with 54.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

This match, on the other hand, I dont think was close enough to see the result change. Crono ended up not being the world-beater I had hoped (not yet, anyway!), but he held up fine against Cloud - about where youd expect from a Crono from the early years of the contest. Basically Crono has looked about as average as youd expect, and an average Crono is still good enough to take on a Bowser (who might also be a fraud) for a second time.

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 54%

Guests Analysis - handsomeboy2012

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7361-finals-bracket-round-1-crono-vs-bowser

Yeah I'm that lazy

Crono with 54.88%

Crew Consensus: Crono does it again
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Losers Bracket: Round 2 Crono vs. Bowser

Monikas Analysis

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser
Legends Round 2 - 44.00% vs. Cloud Strife

Bowser
Legends Round 1 - 45.12% vs. Crono
Losers Round 1 - 51.24% vs. Alucard

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look good if we nailed this match twice.

Of the matches today, this is definitely the one that is less likely to flip. Only 2,874 votes separated them last time, and that definitely wont change a week later.

Im going to say that the same result holds.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Losers Elite Eight? More like Endless Eight!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Crono 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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MAX on Zelda
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Is that the actual write-up you made in 2005 or did you write a new one?

yes that's from 2005

you can see the other ones on this page http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/2005%20Summer%20Contest%20-%20Character%20Battle%204/Contest-Analysis-Crew-SC2K5-Part-2/genmessage5.html
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Ultimately, the reasons for why this could be, despite Nintendos current high-water mark, despite Odyssey, and despite Samus not having a big, well-received game in over ten years cut right down to the core of the shifts weve seen throughout this contest. To put it simply, shifts in the stock of companies, brands, and other groups of characters with similar trends are no longer the principal governing factor when considering contest-to-contest fluctuations in character strength. Instead, the stock of an individual game or series, and even voters levels of appreciation for characters within that game or series, have become much more relevant considerations. Its due to the former factor that the likes of Fox and Captain Falcon looked off, despite Nintendos rising tide, and this also explains cases such as Gordon Freeman, Commander Shepard, Ryu, and even Solid Snake himself.

Now, you might wonder how this first point relates to Samus. My theory is that nostalgia, in sufficient measure, has proven to be a substitute for actual relevance in the shining cases of games that are particularly near and dear to the hearts of voters. Perhaps in combination with the second point I make in the next paragraph, such characters as Aerith, Frog, Magus, Terra, Tifa, Vivi, and arguably even Ness have impressed despite their lack of recent relevance. There are some games that truly stand the test of time, and I think many people would agree that Super Metroid is among those games. Some would even point to Metroid Prime as being in that company, which produces two feathers in Samuss cap.

Of course, most of these examples are inexorably related to those characters being genuinely well-liked. In the past, this factor didnt matter as much as you might expect, with the likes of Crono, Sephiroth, Squall, and arguably even Sonic transcending their mixed reception or not being favorites of their games to put forth commanding performances. This year, however, Frog and Magus have looked great even as Crono has mostly failed to shake the ghosts of his past. Similarly, Sonic has seemingly lost a step, even as Tails and Knuckles proved highly impressive. Even Mario could fairly be put in the same company as Sonic and Crono as the respected symbol of Nintendo, hardly anyone dislikes him, but at the same time, very few people love him. By juxtaposing this with Samuss status as someone whos transcended the usual stereotypes to become the original and arguably the foremost badass character of gaming, we can approach an explanation for Samus looking stronger than Mario to date.

Finally, such results as Link falling short of 80% against Ganondorf, the Tifa upset I already discussed at some length, and even Cloud barely reaching 60% against Alucard suggest that formerly set SFF hierarchies of intra-company or intra-platform strength have, to some extent, broken down this contest. That can only be a good sign for Samuss chances of impressing despite being against Mr. Nintendo himself.

Does all that mean that Samus will shock everyone and actually win this match? Dont count on it, because Mario is ultimately the face of Nintendo and Samus isnt, and as Link is so ably demonstrating to us, even the diminished Nintendo hierarchy still matters. But dont be surprised if Samus is leading all through the power hour. In fact, dont be too surprised if it takes Mario until the Eastern Hemisphere night vote sets in to put this match away for good.

Prediction: Mario wins with 52.54%

Crew Consensus: Mario does it again in the runback
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transiences Analysis

I've seen this one too many times to have any kind of hope for Samus. It doesn't matter what performances happen leading up to it -- Mario's going to drop a big number on her. Samus has the numbers edge walking into this match but I don't think the Tifa/Sephiroth match is anything close to an honest match. I'd still take Sephiroth over, say, Luigi or X. Because of that, I think Mario is legit stronger *and* has the hierarchy advantage over Samus.

The only thing that makes me pause is that Super Metroid vs. Majora match last contest, where Metroid actually almost upended our game of the decade. That's a big deal on a site that used to vote big for Samus but didn't actually like her games that much. Super Metroid and Metroid Prime grow each year as legit powerhouse Nintendo properties. Maybe she can hold up somehow vs. Mario? I mean, absolutely no. But let's see where it goes when she starts running through the losers bracket.

transience's prediction: Mario with 60.45%

Leonharts Analysis

Do we really have to have this match again? Ugh, I guess we do, and we might have it twice, to boot. Im at the point where Im just rooting for Samus to beat Mario just so we can stop having arguments over a match that happened 13 years ago, and I dont even like Samus that much. Unfortunately, that probably wont happen, but I think shell probably keep it closer than she did in 2005.

Leonharts Vote: Samus Aran

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 54.67%

Kleenexs Analysis

Samus has everything going for her here. Better first round performance than Mario through Sephiroth and Tifa. Upcoming new game hype. Good picture (?). Higher seeding. The only downside is the fact that she can actually never beat Mario so none of the matters. Will people finally get retribution for 2005? No. No they wont.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mario with 58%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Even on GameFAQs, its not 2005 anymore. Just as the logic that Samus supporters used 13 years ago was proven wrong, so too will the logic that says Mario will surely demolish Samus because he managed it back in 2005 be mooted. Do you want to know why, my dear reader?

Its because Samus has frankly looked stronger than Mario to date. Her percentage on Tifa was almost identical to Marios result on Sephiroth, and weve now seen Tifa comfortably beat Sephiroth straight up. On top of that, theres reason to expect Tifa to have fared even better against Samus than she would have against a neutral character of similar strength, given the past two times these two faced (not to mention every time Tifa faces another female character). Granted, it is possible (even though Im less and less convinced of it as time goes on) that Tifa could have pulled off some weird hierarchy reversal to beat Sephiroth. A combination of that and the arguably skewed match picture is why I merely portend that Samus has looked stronger, rather than outright being ahead of Mario indirectly.
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Ahaha~ whoops! I must have gotten stuck in a time warp. Lets try this again...

Legends Bracket: Round 2 Samus Aran vs. Mario

Monikas Analysis

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth

We can debate who is indirectly stronger between Samus or Mario until the cows come home, but in a direct match-up, there is no longer any question about that.

The three certainties in life:

Death

Taxes

Nintendo hierarchy

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: We just need to enjoy the present and not think about the past!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Alright, after a huge history lesson, time to get focused on this year, 2005. Before, Samus has looked better than Mario for the most part, but is that all going to change this year?

Mario has already taken down Joanna, SFFed Ness to the bottom of the barrel, and really impressed against Zero. Samus had the biggest blow-out of the Contest against Yuri, showed us that Frog was very weak by getting 70% on him, and showing to us that large amounts of SFF doesnt occur when two big Nintendo names go head to head when she got 60% on Ganondorf. They both have been looking great so far, but if I had to give the edge to someone, Id give it to Mario by an inch. Hes done nothing but impress us, and 63% on Zero is very shocking.

Mario also has the brackets on his side. Over 80% have him in the Elite 8, while less than 50% have Samus here. Mario is the favorite by the casuals to win, while Samus is the board favorite. Its going to be close here, guys. Weve already seen many times that there isnt much, if any, SFF in matches between stronger Nintendo characters, meaning Samus wins alone based on pure strength. Mario supporters though, have a nice argument on their side. Will a majority of the voters vote Mario, who is basically the mascot of Nintendo, over Samus, who rests on the second tier in the Nintendo hierarchy?

Since this is my analysis, Ill tell you what I think. Mario and Samus wont get any SFF on each other. They could, but it wont be huge either way. I think Samus will win on pure strength alone. Link couldnt get SFF on either of them, so its doubtful that either would get it on the other. However, if SFF does play a role here, then it would most likely go to Mario. This is a match for the ages, folks. Enjoy it while you can.

Moltars Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltars Prediction is: Mario: 49% - Samus: 51%
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Mushroom/Zebes Division Round 4 - Match 57 (1)Mario vs. (1)Samus

Mario - Warped down the wrong pipe this time.
Round 1 vs. Joanna Dark (Mario: 80.90% - Joanna: 19.10%)
Round 2 vs. Ness (Mario: 82.80% - Ness: 17.20%)
Round 3 vs. Zero (Mario: 62.86% - Zero: 37.14%)

Ouch, what was Zero fighting for? He gets owned by Mario.

Samus - Shes going to need every upgrade possible in this fight.
Round 1 vs. Ryu H. (Samus: 87.32% - Yuri: 12.68%)
Round 2 vs. Frog (Samus: 70.05% - Frog: 29.95%)
Round 3 vs. Ganondorf (Samus: 59.66% - Ganon: 40.34%)

Samus does decent against Ganondorfbetter than Seph did.

Well, its finally here. This match will either make, or break most brackets. The winner of this match here, has the best chance of going on and winning the Contest, kind of like Link/Cloud back in 2003. On one side, we have the legend, the icon, Mr. Nintendo, Mario! On the other side, we have the badass, the bounty hunter, Mrs. Nintendo, Samus! Fasten your seat-belts readers, this is going to be one hell of a ride!

Mario and Samus are Contest vets. Both have been around since 2002. Back then, Mario was under-performing against Servbot and Morrigan, SFFing Donkey Kong, and managing to somehow beat Cloud and Crono before losing to Link 62-38. Samus in 2002 had a much less exciting path. She made Ken Masters look great, beat Ryu easily, passed Sonic by a hair, and then lost to Sephiroth. Samus still ended up ranking higher than Mario 41.07% to 37.47%.

2003 rolled around and both were back to lay more carnage. Mario stomped Olimar, got 55% on Shadow, and then barely edged past Crono again. He then went on to get flattened by Sephiroth. Samus destroyed Issac and KOS-MOS, got 58% on Squall, then lost to Link 62-38. This year, Mario barely outranked Samus 38.18%-37.94%

Now lets move to 2004. Mario crushed JC Denton, SFFed Bowser, then lost to Crono 53-47. Samus out-lasted Mario by far. She obliterated Lara and Fisher so badly, people were thinking she could take down Cloud and Link. She then got 66% on Sora, 57.5% on Sonic, and then lost to Cloud in a 59-41 match. Samus easily beat Mario in the rankings 42.36% to 37.28%

Alright, now that weve looked at their history, we can see some things. Samus has outranked Mario twice, while Mario has beaten Samus only once. The one time Mario won was close too, while Samus easily beat Mario. Mario also looks to remain static over the three years, while Samus went down in 2003, then back up in 2004. Also, both of them have faced all the members of Clinkeroth, so lets look at that.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=999 Seph/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363 Seph/Mario

Seph gets 52% on Samus in 2002, and 62% on Mario in 2003. Well, with the Square boost in 2003, its easier to see why Mario did so poorly, but if a rematch was done today, I would not only put Mario over Seph, but also Samus.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361 Link/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002 Link/Mario

Link gets 38% on both Mario (2002) and Samus (2003). Well, Mario did slightly better, but they still both pot up near equal performances on Link.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1780 Cloud/Samus
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=996 Cloud/Mario

Marioactually beat Cloud, while Samus got 41% on Cloud. I can say with 100% confidence that Mario would not beat Cloud today. He might be able to break 40% though.
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transiences Analysis

I keep waiting for Zelda to hit a roadblock and it just hasn't happened. First it was "wait until she faces real competition" and she killed Squall; then it was "wait until it's Zelda vs. a video game icon" and she upset Snake; and now it's "wait until she faces someone Nintendo-adjacent that's higher on the hierarchy" with Sonic. I'm not convinced that Zelda actually has fans -- people who think she's one of the best characters in gaming -- and I'm waiting for those cracks to show as she faces more and more opponents.

I think the Nintendo hierarchy thing is a real possibility that has a real chance of happening against the right opponent -- but Sonic probably isn't that dude. Sonic kinda sucks this year. Auron and Squall are probably not that far off and we're looking at a 60%+ result for Zelda vs. a 54% result for Sonic. Sonic would need some kind of Tifa-esque "rSFF" to win this, and he's just not Nintendo enough for that to manifest.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 56.35%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, after what weve seen from Aurons two matches, this one seems pretty cut and cry, unless you want to claim that the sprites completely ruin the validity of the match against Snake. I feel like Im one of the only people who wants Sonic to do well in these things. Ive been rooting for all things Sonic in these contests since I picked Sonic 2 to beat Mario World in the original Games Contest! I picked a stupid Sonic upset nearly every contest until it finally paid off in 2006 against Crono. Id love to say hes got a chance here, but the writing is on the wall, barring something really weird.

Leonharts Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 55.95%

Kleenatsukis Analysis

I think there may have been some debate about if Zelda could capitalize on her upset over Snake last round and keep things rolling against Sonic today, but after seeing how badly Auron got trashed by Snake, I feel like any doubt has to be gone. Sonic looked like hot garbage and Zelda is like #4 on the site now or something, I dunno. Well see how she holds up against Mario in the semis, but I dont think she should have any trouble dispatching Sonic here, unless some bizarre hierarchy nonsense rears its head.

Kleenatsukis Prediction: Zelda with 56%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Normally I write up my analyses as soon as Ive signed up for them, but Im glad I waited. I think I mightve been leaning towards Zelda in this match anyway, but after Tifa > Sephiroth, theres no reason to doubt! And furthermore, Link pulled an ALttP sprite rather than the Z1 sprite that Ganondorf got. That helps, because despite being in the title of the game, Zelda doesnt show up until the very end of the first game. Youll only see her if youve actually beaten it. Also, its an NES sprite. NES Zelda vs. Genesis Sonic, Id give the pic advantage to Sonic; SNES Zelda, Id say its a wash.

Zelda with 54%

Crew Consensus: Zelda continues her destruction of the Noble Nine
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Legends Bracket: Round 2 Zelda vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

Monikas Analysis

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake

Sonic
Legends Round 1 - 54.32% vs. Auron

After Sonic put up that stinker of a performance against Auron, this dude can just get outta here. Snake got 60%+ on the same guy, and Zelda beat Snake. I cant see her getting this far, looking like a top character on GameFAQs, and then dropping the ball against Sonic of all characters.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: You know what's a neat form of analysis? Rap! I kind of wish I had a rapper in the Analysis Crew.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Zelda 57%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transcience posted...

I want to see Tifa beat Seph just to throw everything out of whack

well since samus > mario indirectly that makes sense to me
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Samus Aran - 54.40%
Mario - 53.70%
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wont be able to post the write ups before the match sry

spoilers everyone picked mario
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LeonhartFour posted...

did transience get deleted from the game

ahaha whoops~

(legit accident because I was in a rush and had to go)
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Half parlay on Zelda and Sonic
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Leonharts Analysis

This is actually an opportunity for Sonic to look good against an established veteran character for a change! Sonic is coming off of his biggest game in many years, and Auron was probably the least impressive division winner. Not necessarily the weakest, but definitely the least impressive. Hes not going to be riding high on a wave of momentum here.

Of course, watch Sonic still look like crap anyway and established that hes pretty much boned against Snake next round and then against Zelda in the losers bracket!

Leonharts Vote: Auron

Leonharts Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 57.10%

Kleenexs Analysis

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero

Auron wins, next.

Okay, probably not. Who knows where Sonic actually is at this point, but I dont think Auron really poses much of a threat. Auron has looked fine this year, but not like a Noble Nine breaker* and considering he was never at that level to begin with, Sonic would have to have dropped pretty hard to give Auron a shot here. Blue streak speeds by.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sonic with 57%

Lopen's Analysis:

To most people, this match is a boring one. To me? This contest is Sonic's time for redemption. All the creatures of the planet earth have boosted. From bandicoots, to dogs, to apes, and of course as we just saw, to rats.

Who is our strongest creature of the planet earth before this contest? That's right. SONIC SPEED. Built noble nine. Built fast. Blue streak speeds by with super high percentages and people will say Auron has DROPPED!!

Auron has not DROPPED!! This percentage is not an illusion. This is raw power. Sonic will look geared to take on Link after this grand entrance. And he will be. Because he is a creature of earth realm. HogFAQs is coming.

Bet on SONIC SPEED.

Lopen's Prediction:
SONIC SPEED with 64.64%

Crew Consensus: Sonic races on
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Auron

Monikas Analysis

hey finally a new 1v1 match

I dont think theres much of a reason to think Auron pulls off the upset here. He struggled throughout his division, and there werent any killers in it. Meanwhile, Sonic should be stronger this year going off of how well the other Sonic Team characters performed. This was already projected to be an easy Sonic win, and I think hell do a little better than expected since I dont think highly of Aurons division at all.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Life moves quickly, but try not to speed past everything or else youll miss out!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Sonic 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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It is very clear that this Zelda is a completely different beast to the one that fought Snake back in 2005 when both characters looked awful in their match pics. Breath Of the Wild is probably the main reason why she has boosted as much as she had.

And what has the Metal Gear franchise done within the past 5 years? Metal Gear Solid V/Ground Zeroes? Remember the outcry when Metal Gear Survive was announced, or how Konami refused to allow Hideo Kojima to appear at that Game Awards show and the host called them out on it, or when they announced Metal Gear Solid 3 pachinko remake? Oh, Snake returns to Smash Ultimate. Whoop-de-doo, where was he in the last game?

I know we all want to see Snake finally topple Link, but personally the more I think about it, the more I think Zelda should beat Snake here. We've been talking about how Sonic could lose against Zelda. Never mind him, THIS is the big upset Zelda is gunning for here. I expect this match to be close, but I'm going all in on the Hyrule Princess.

My Prediction: Zelda (50.22%)

Crew Consensus: Snake CQCs Zelda
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Kleenexs Analysis

Well, we just saw the Noble Nine get broken* a day ago, could it happen here again?

I dont think so. Zelda looked great in the main bracket, no doubt. Totally crushing Squall and Aeris is no joke. Snake is no Mega Man, though. Metal Gear may have not looked great so far this year, but I think Snake is probably immune to that as hes pretty much his own entity at this point. Im not going to go as far as to say Zelda is a fraud, but Im not sure I buy her supposed strength this year yet. I sort of wonder if she was just acting as something of a Link proxy in his absence, sort of like how we saw Majora win GotD. I think hierarchy takes over here, and Snake probably puts a stop to this nonsense. Then again, I also thought Mega Man would do that to the rat and he didnt so who knows.

Kleenexs Prediction: Snake with 55%

Guests Analysis - paulg235

We've just seen a Noble Niner in Mega Man fall to a Non-Noble Niner in Pikachu and I honestly believe we can see it again tomorrow with Zelda and Snake. It feels really weird saying that given how Snake was the clear #2 character behind Link in 2013 (disregarding Draven shenanigans) and had looked legit in contests prior, beating Sephiroth in 2010 and looking great in 2008. But one cannot ignore the red flags that have gone off during the course of the contest. Metal Gear on the whole has looked lacklustre (for reasons I believe to be linked to what I wrote later in this write-up). Ocelot almost lost to Dedede, Big Boss looked unconvincing against Crash (and his performance against Red looked worse when Alucard beat him easily), The Quiet looked like garbage, and The Boss looked against Zelda.

Speaking of the Hyrule princess, that crushing performance over Squall was serious business. Just compare it to how Snake has done against Squall over the years.
Zelda (2018): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7342-division-5-semifinal-squall-vs-zelda
Snake (2002 and pre-KH1): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/955-east-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
Snake (2006 and post-KH2): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2539-patriot-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
Snake (2010): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3848-gear-division-final-solid-snake-vs-squall

And I usually not someone to use heavily adjusted x-stats, but just for kicks;
Snake (2013c) has a strength of 47.55 against Base Link.
Squall (2013c) has a strength of 37.97 against Base Link.
Snake wins with 60.07% of the vote!

Outside of 2002, Zelda just went and did better than Snake ever could against the FF8 lead.

Zelda's performance over Aeris this year is also impressive given how that match went 12 years ago.
2006: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2549-triforce-division-final-zelda-vs-aeris-gainsborough
2018: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7354-division-5-final-zelda-vs-aerith
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transiences Analysis

I've been holding this one in for a while, but I think it's time to let it out. I think Solid Snake is going to *suck* this year, relative to expectations. Let's go through the noble nine (still alive, will never die, etc) and see what they've done since 2013:

Link: Smash 4, Breath of the Wild
Cloud: Smash 4, FF7 remake (trailer, but as we know, that's all you need)
Seph: technically the FF7 remake, but he hasn't been seen yet and also, has kinda sucked?
Samus: Smash 4, new 3DS games, Prime 4 announcement (the trailer is gonna drop during the contest -- believe)
Mario: goddamn everything, but especially Mario Odyssey
Crono: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, and he's probably not that great this year (I don't believe in Bowser and think his Kirby match is BS)
Mega Man: Mega Man 11, Smash 4
Sonic: Sonic Mania, Smash 4
Snake: umm....?

Look, The Boss got murdered by Zelda and Ocelot almost lost to a trailer character (not even a good one) and got demolished by Ryu. Metal Gear has been put through the shredder the last 5 years. MGS5 looks awful and Quiet almost made a Kingdom Hearts side character look good. Metal Gear Survive, the less said the better. Solid Snake's big advantage from 2006-2013 over the lower NN has been his relevance compared to faded 90s icons and his amazing Brawl appearance. His best case is that he's in Smash 5, but so is literally everyone and his appearance hasn't been anything notable yet. I think Snake falls back down to where he was back then - hanging with the Sonics and the Cronos of the world. Maybe a slight half step above them, but well behind Mario.

So, Zelda. I just can't *quite* get there with her. I think she's legit, but I wonder how legit. She got to abuse Square and Metal Gear, neither of which have really impressed me this year. Squall and Aerith both looked kinda bad. I just feel like she's not a 'real' character and that people won't vote for her when she's up against a true icon like Solid Snake. I do think she makes it close, though -- you just don't kill Nintendo in a setting like this. If Snake gets above 60%, throw everything I said out the window.

transience's prediction: Snake with 54.69%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, after what weve seen so far, you have to give Zelda a pretty strong chance of at least keeping it close, if not outright winning. Now Im one of the few remaining who still believes in Snake. He has one really huge reason to hold up that Big Boss and Ocelot dont. People are actually hyped about him coming back to Smash. Metal Gear Solid as a franchise may be irrelevant these days, but Snake himself is relevant again for the first time in quite a while. I think that helps him.

Plus, Snake has been well above Mega Man and Crono the last few contests, so he has some room to drop off and still be strong enough to win this match. Besides, if its a close match, youve gotta favor Snake. Weve seen him clutch it out in the end more than once. How many clutch Zelda performances can you even name? Go ahead. Ill wait.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 54.41%
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Monikas Analysis

member 2005? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2102

Frog in 2004
Bowser in 2005

...Okay I actually thought there would be more super close matches than that but whatever. Snake was constantly getting threatened by strong-non Noble Nine characters, especially in his pre-Brawl days. Once he became infused with the spirit of Nintendo though, he rocketed from the bottom of the Noble Nine to near the top. His last contest result put him as the #2 character on the site, keeping Link to only 53.5%.

Were five years removed from that though, and the landscape has changed. Metal Gear Solid has fallen in strength across the board, and The Legend of Zelda received Breath of the Wild. Zelda has looked on that Noble Nine level this contest with strong wins in all of her matches so far. The Noble Nine isnt unbreakable as we just saw with Mega Man/Pikachu. Pikachu also looked great all contest and he backed it up against MM. Zelda has looked even better than Pikachu! If Link could beat Snake, whats stopping Zelda?

Well...the fact that shes still not Link. Snake has much less of a reason to fall off the face of the Earth since hes still hanging around with his Smash buddies, which is keeping him relevant. Now, if Snake has fallen back to the weaker Noble Nine, then Zelda has a great shot at winning. I can see it happening, but Im not banking on that. I still see Snake as one of the stronger members of the group. Itll say a lot if Zelda comes really close to the upset (as in shes essentially stronger than like half the Noble Nine), but I believe shell fall short of winning.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: If you're having a bad day, you can always come to me, and I'll talk to you for as long as you need.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Snake 51%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Kleenexs Analysis

Crono was a pretty big question mark this year. Hes had a tumultuous history throughout every contest dating back to 2002, and was definitely on a downswing for most of the past decade. But then Chrono Trigger absolutely tore up the games contest (until outside intervention stopped it cold), and it seemed that perhaps things might start looking up. Magus and Frog both looked pretty alright in the main bracket, and that bodes reasonably well for Crono. Bowser also looked great though, and this is absolutely the kind of match that might give Crono trouble. Theres a pretty huge range on where the results for this battle could fall, but I have a lot riding on Crono doing (unreasonably) well, so Im going all in.

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 58%

Guests Analysis - spooky96

There's definitely some buzz for this match as many of us strongly believe Crono is the weakest N9 member. First of all, there's no question that Sonic is the weakest of them all. If you look at the past results, Sonic feels more like a slight step above the elites rather than a concrete N9er like Samus or Snake. Anyway, Bowser has looked pretty decent in all his matches. We have no data on Crono whatsoever. I think quite highly of 2013 Crono's performance against Pikachu as not only Magus was leeching off votes from him, it was a contest when Pokemon was on full-steroids mode.

This seems like a standard 55-45 beat down, or at the best Bowser breaks 47% or something. There's nothing going on for Bowser, we've already seen that literally no one outside of this website cares about this contest, so any of those 'bowsetitities' memes would be meaningless.

Crono with 55%

Crew Consensus: Go Go Crono
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transiences Analysis

Bowser's a tough nut to crack. He alternated great performances with pretty mediocre ones. Crono breaks 60% on 2B, right? It sure *feels* like Crono should win this. Then again, I'm not convinced he puts 54% on Kirby, and Pikachu's currently got 49% on Mega Man and looks about even odds to beat him outright. The line between the elites and the bottom rung of the NN is as close as ever.

I'm going to take Crono here. I felt really good about it pre-contest, and by the end of round 1/2 I felt like Crono could be a legit threat to Cloud. But then Auron bombed against Geralt and Luigi went down kind of softly to Tifa, and those Frog/Magus performances look in line with what you would expect from the ninth strongest character on the site. Is he stronger than a guy who's contending for #10? Probably -- but I never feel too comfortable about it, especially when it's Crono we're talking about. As the site contracts and our core audience becomes more and more pronounced, dudes like Crono rise above -- but so do dudes like Bowser. This one should be close. Go Crono.

transience's prediction: Crono with 50.05%

Yuriharts Analysis

My initial thought was that Crono would win this easily, but as Im watching Mega Man hold on for dear life against Pikachu, Im not so sure! Im not convinced that Crono is any stronger than Mega Man, but its honestly looking like Pikachu is the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character at this point. I definitely wouldnt take Bowser over him, so that gives Crono some breathing room. I think hell have enough to get the job done. Either way, this Legends bracket could be crazier than I originally gave it credit for!

Yuriharts Vote: Bowser

Yuriharts Prediction: Crono with 53.13%
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Crono vs. Bowser

Monikas Analysis

Runback from 2006 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2545

Back in 2013, the upset potential would be there. CT looked weak enough that Pikachu knocked out both Crono and Magus.

Then Chrono Trigger looked like a beast in the games contest and everything changed.

Magus and Frog rebounded this year, but Crono was the one that always had the most to gain back. Bowser is a very good test for Crono as an elite or near-elite. If Crono is still on the lower end of the Noble Nine, Bowser will threaten him in his match, and possibly score the upset in this strong Nintendo/Mario year.

Still, back in 2006, even in a down year for Crono, he had no problem winning this match-up. Even if Bowser is stronger now, weve seen an upswing of CT recently, and Crono doesnt need to be at his peak to win in the rematch. All signs point to Crono being stronger than he has been in recent years, so Im sticking with him winning this match.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Just because someone is silent doesnt mean they cant express themselves in a variety of other ways!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Crono 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Lopen has a theory about 'Playstation SFF', and I think this match will be a good test. There are only about 7 or so notable PS1 games and we've got two of them here. PS1 had a huge library but from this site's perspective, it's the Square RPGs, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil and Symphony of the Night. That's about it.

Alucard's been pretty good this year but Cloud should be well out of his league. I can't decide if he's had an amazing year or if his entire division just sucked relative to expectations. It's basically Square characters, human Pokemon dudes and Metal Gear Solid. All of those guys kinda suck. Anyway, I believe in Alucard, but not enough to get him to break 60 on Cloud. This probably goes the way of Sephiroth/Ryu. If we get some 'Playstation SFF', maybe Cloud pushes into the high 60s. That'd be an interesting result but I don't think it affects his upcoming showdown with Link.

transience's prediction: Cloud with 62.23%

Leonharts Analysis

Alucards had a great run thus far, but I feel like Clouds a pretty bad matchup for him. In terms of 90s PS1 games, Symphony of the Night is no match for Final Fantasy VII. While Cloud has fallen off quite a bit over the years, its hard to imagine that hed ever only put up 55% on Sora. Im not really sure what a good target percentage is for him to shoot for in order to look good down the line against some of the other Noble Niners (and Pikachu, apparently). Id guess probably at least 60% or so, although with what were seeing out of the gate, I wont be stunned if Cloud doesnt hit it.

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Cloud Strife with 62.44%

Kleenexs Analysis

Mega Man is currently embroiled in a tough battle with Pikachu as Im writing this, so the Noble Nine may not be as infallible as I thought yesterday. Luckily for Cloud, he got the easiest match of the Quarterfinals. Alucard was maybe the most impressive of the eight who made it out of the main bracket, but hes also definitely the weakest. FF7 ended up looking mostly okay this year by the end of things, so theres a good chance Cloud looks pretty respectable here. Alucard may be able to surprise, but not to the extent that Cloud is in any danger whatsoever (this round, anyway!)

Kleenexs Prediction: Cloud with 60%

Crew Consensus: Alucards future outlook is Cloudy
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Cloud Strife vs. Alucard

Monikas Analysis

Alucard has been stomping Nintendo and Square all contest, so what is his reward for doing that? Getting the honor of facing the strongest Square character in a 2002 throwback match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/989

And since then, he now appears in a super popular Nintendo game. Yay!

This is too much of a hurdle for Alucard to overcome. After watching Seph hold up for the most part in his division, I dont think Alucard is going to get all that close to Cloud here. 40% would be pretty amazing for him. Cloud isnt as strong as he was in 2002, and Alucards resurgance maybe has put him about that 2002 level, so I expect this to be a bit closer now.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Give it to Alucard! I love a good underdog story.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Cloud 64%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Nanis23 posted...

wow
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