Lurker > red sox 777

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

What better evidence that modern Nationalist Republicanism is proto-fascism, than the so so common argument that the country would be more in their favorand itd be a good thingif you excised the single most populous state from existence because its weighted heavily against them.

The population of Democrats OR Republicans in that state you hate is practically half of the states combined, if not more.

If you want to make an argument that California tips the scales, remove California and an equal number of Republican states by population, say...Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Sound fair?

Disenfranchise CA, TX, TN, and KY? A tempting offer. But that's 57 electoral votes for the 3 Republican states and more after 2020 due to TX growing fast. And only 55 for CA. How about we also disenfranchise DC? That makes it 57 R votes lost to 58 D votes lost now, but probably 59 R to 58 D after 2020. But we still lose 6 senators to 2, so it's not a great trade numbers wise even if we can get CA out of the picture.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

metroid composite posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Net is massively in favor of Dems.

I just checked. California is not even in the top 10 bluest states. (Texas also isn't in the top 10 reddest states, if you're curious).

https://www.politico.com/gallery/10-bluest-reddest-states?slide=0

Though regardless, I see no reason to exclude California. It's not geographically isolated like Hawaii or Alaska. It's not ideologically isolated; nearby states have similar politics to the areas of California that they border. It's not religiously isolated like Utah. It has an outsized influence on culture including political culture (on both the left and on the right--Ann Coulter and Ben Shapiro and Tomi Lahren all live in or moved to LA last I checked).

Because it has a huge population. Multiply that by the percentage gap and you get a huge net in favor of Dems from CA. It's about 1/8 of the population. If CA is D+40 (traditionally, it's not that high, but for Trump it probably is), and the country is D+4, the country without CA is probably going to be about R+1.

It matters if a poll of the 49 states not including CA is better correlated to the Electoral College winner than a poll of all 50 states. Which it may well be at this point.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

red sox 777 posted...

And 4 points net disapproval may well be a net approval if you exclude California, which is probably at least 40 points net unfavorable.

California has more Republicans than any state except Texas, this is a stupid thing people keep doing

Also has the most Democrats. Like, by far the most. Net is massively in favor of Dems.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

And 4 points net disapproval may well be a net approval if you exclude California, which is probably at least 40 points net unfavorable.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Trump's approval rating up to 46 in the Gallup poll, the highest it's been since he took office. Disapproval at 50% so we're not too far off from net favorability.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Pelosi now openly saying Democrats have to own the center left and the mainstream for 2020. Looks like we're getting candidate Biden and four more years of Trump!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

If you control all branches of government, you don't need to work with the other side.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Yeah, the Democrats' proportional representation in their primaries will keep on hurting them. If the Republicans used proportional representation, Trump would have had a plurality but not a majority of the delegates....and we would probably have had an RNC where the establishment delegates banded together behind Rubio or Bush or someone boring. And that candidate would have lost to Hillary.

Thanks to proportional representation, Bernie's relatively small margins over Hillary in a bunch of swing states mattered very little, while Hillary's landslide wins in Southern states that were always going to vote Republican no matter what effectively clinched the nomination for her. That's exactly the opposite of the structure the Democrats should be using to maximize their chances in the general.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1124698033168449536?s=19

Great thread by an old college buddy

This is from the midterms and current polling... You can quibble with the exact numbers (i.e. there are margins of error)... but it's all pretty clear. Dem voters are ollllllld... and they sure as heck ain't very liberal.

It's clear that some on this platform have ZERO clue the makeup of the Democratic electorate. And because of that, they're taken aback by Biden's advantage. Who knows if the lead will hold, but it makes a ton of sense.

You went to school with Harry Enten?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Did you read my post? I said the housing prices fell. That doesn't help the rich homeowners sitting on massive capital gains. It helps the people who live in the area and can't afford to pay their rent/buy a house.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Leafeon13N posted...

There are a lot of Republicans in California.

Also using the bay area as an example of anything is hilarious.

There aren't a lot of markets where the difference between capping the mortgage interest loan deduction at loans of 750k vs. 1 million is going to make much of a difference. The Bay Area is one of them.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Well there aren't that many from CA and NY, since those states vote for so many Democrats! But they are the rump of the establishment wing of the Republican Party.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

GOP members of Congress from CA and NY were loudly protesting that tax bill, because it was going to reduce the itemized deductions their affluent constituents used. The rest of the House ignored them and passed the bill.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

And if that's a response to the tax bill limiting the mortgage interest deduction to 750k borrowed rather than 1 million, that's wonderful! Trump policies, passed over the objection of establishment Republicans, working as intended and reducing costs of living for the common people.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Trump's not going to lose if this kind of economic condition holds up. And it's not even a situation where living costs are soaring as well - I read in the newspaper yesterday that Bay Area housing prices actually fell slightly the last year, for the first time since the bottom of the market was reached in 2011/12.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jobs report for April came out - 263,000 jobs added, unemployment rate now down to 3.6%, the lowest in 50 years. Wage growth at 3.2%, so that's outpacing inflation at 1.9%.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LusterSoldier posted...

Haste_2 posted...

The GameFAQs unemployment rate is approximately 12.5% according to yesterday's Poll of the Day. That's over three times the US unemployment rate, even for the age group of 25-34 years. I'm guessing the reason for that is that many gamers are lazy and/or anti-social. That would limit friends and networking, limiting employment opportunities.

I was also quite a bit surprised that the Full-Time Work option got almost 58%. At least in the US, Obamacare killed off a lot of full-time jobs due to businesses being required to provide health insurance to their employees if they have at least 50 full-time workers. Retail jobs were most affected by this employer mandate, while minimum wage jobs were disproportionally affected by the mandate. As a result, many people were stuck with part-time jobs, so I thought this would have had some effect on the site's American userbase voting in this poll. Guess not.

Of course, the employer mandate doesn't apply to businesses with less than 50 full-time employees, which would mostly apply to small businesses. So it could still be possible for someone to have a full-time job in the US despite being paid at or just slightly above the minimum wage.

The Full-Time Work option getting almost 58% in this poll means that we have a large enough userbase to support an After Work Vote. Generally speaking, only full-time workers would be expected to contribute towards an After Work Vote. Part-time workers usually don't work enough hours each day to be faced with a situation where they have to wait until getting home from work to vote in the poll, though it could be possible with an 8+ hour work day.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure 58% is far below the average full-time employment rate the US had for the period from its founding to the 2008 crash, at least for people matching Gamefaqs demographics (mostly younger men). Even if you exclude students from the denominator it's still probably quite low compared to historical numbers. It's a lot higher than it's been in the last 10 years but we are seeing near-record lows in the (flawed) official unemployment rate, so that would make sense.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Haste_2 posted...

The GameFAQs unemployment rate is approximately 12.5% according to yesterday's Poll of the Day. That's over three times the US unemployment rate, even for the age group of 25-34 years. I'm guessing the reason for that is that many gamers are lazy and/or anti-social. That would limit friends and networking, limiting employment opportunities.

Where are you seeing 12.5%? I am seeing 9.86% for not employed and also looking for work, which is closest to how they measure the unemployment rate. The Gamefaqs poll option is quite a bit broader than the unemployment rate, which considers people not to be looking for work if they've become discouraged at not being able to find work and have given up. The U-6 rate, which includes these people and people who would like full-time work but are working part-time because they can't find full-time work, is about double the normally cited unemployment rate, which lines up fairly well with the Gamefaqs number (9% in the US).
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!