Lurker > red sox 777

Moonroof posted...

I dont understand any of this. From how a bankrupt company can do as well as Hertz has the past few weeks, to how they can get approved for $1,000,000,000 for shares...

They haven't been approved for it. They're going to try to sell 246 million shares on the market. How much they get will depend on what people are willing to pay. The court just said they can go ahead and try.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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DeepsPraw posted...

Seems kind of short-sighted for the Obama ACA wording to say "sex" only and not gender or sexuality. Maybe I'm misreading the article, but it seems like that's what this hinges on

I mean, the thing is like 2000 pages long and most of the members of Congress who passed it never read it. If you want legislation that doesn't have flaws, loopholes, errors, etc. it's better to keep it short and simple so the people voting for it at least can fully understand what they are voting for and how to change it before voting.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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This has serious potential to make history. If this actually works and they can cancel the bankruptcy, every bankrupt publicly traded company in the future is going to be thinking about trying this manuever.

Looks like they recovered almost all of the after-hours loss already. That's good. As I said last page, I think this is a heavily path-dependent system. The company only has value if the market believes it does. If the share price isn't high enough to escape BK (I don't know what the number is), it should go to zero.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Looks like the judge approved the Hertz request to issue shares. Pumped for Monday. Volume today was 267 million which is more than the amount of shares being issued. They hired Jefferies Financial Group to handle the actual sale of the new shares on the market and are paying them a 3% commission for it so hopefully they will bring some trading expertise to it and the new shares will be released gradually, in an efficient way, rather than dumped onto the market all at once.

I think the people complaining about share dilution don't understand the situation. 100% of 0 is 0. 40% of 0 is still 0. 40% of a positive number is higher than 0. Now it all comes down to the market coming through with the funds.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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My stocks closed at +9.82% for the day. By dollar amount it was my best day trading as some larger percentage gains were done with smaller amounts of money. HTZ was my only stock in the red today (I bought it fairly close to today's high). Made back all of yesterday's losses and a bit more. Still down about $600 for the week, but we were due for a pullback after how much the market gained since mid-May.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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This is lame. They muted the audio on Zoom. That's not really a public hearing if I can't hear anything!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The Hertz hearing in bankruptcy court is starting in 14 minutes. I'm watching on Zoom lol.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Some back of the envelope calculations with Hertz. Please take with a huge grain of salt. There are approximately 150 million shares now and Hertz is proposing adding another 264 million or so. Call it a 40 to 60 ratio for simplicity.

Pre-Covid, HTZ was trading at $20, which gives us a market cap of approximately $3 billion. Call this the value of Hertz after recovery from coronavirus with no risk of bankruptcy. Supposing they are able to sell the 264 million shares at $3, that would raise around $800 million. Let's say that they use $300 million to pay off imminent debts to stay afloat, and cancel the bankruptcy. Now the total equity should be $3.5 billion, meaning the undiluted share price would be about $23. But it's been diluted at this point, we multiply by 0.4 and get.....a little over $9.

It gets better. If the shares are worth $9 the company will be selling them for a lot more than $3 - suppose the market reacts immediately to good news and they sell them for $9 - then what happens? The above analysis is the same except that now the company is bringing in around $2.4 billion instead of $800 million, so we add the extra $1.6 billion to the equity and reach $5.1 billion, or an undiluted share price of $34 or a diluted share price of $13.6.

But of course, that's not all! If the shares are worth $13.6, why should the company only receive $9 for them? It turns out that in this model there is a breakeven point where the amount the company pays for the stock is equal to the diluted share price. We have the equation:

Diluted Share Price = $7.2 + 0.6 * Diluted Share Price, where $7.2 represents the value of an existing share based on the $3 billion market cap, less $300 million to pay immediate creditors, after the dilution but without considering the additional cash on the company's books. This equation when solved yields..... Diluted Share Price = $18.

Please take this with a grain of salt. This analysis is dependent on the company being able to raise more than $4 billion through share sales. Also, I pulled the 300 million to take care of immediately due debts out of thin air - I don't know how much HTZ needs to escape bankruptcy. But I think the basic idea is that if the court will allow this plan, Hertz should either spike massively or go to zero, depending on whether it's able to sell its shares. It should be hard for it to stay where it is now.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And speaking of TVIX, it's barely down today. Well, it opened at -20% then rocketed up to +15% and is now down 1%. That makes me nervous because it should be down a lot more with the market up so much. Monday TVIX and the market both rose and then the market crashed the next 3 days. Well, whatever. I'm not repeating my mistake of selling travel stocks too early and hoping for a dip to buy back in that never came.

If Monday is a big red day, so be it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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IDK. I think I learned something about this in college but that was like 10 years ago. On a purely intuitive basis, I suspect this is similar to the effect that causes TVIX to steadily lose money, and why it's down 99.99999% or something in 10 years. They are constantly rolling over their option positions to the next time period, and eating losses in so doing.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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masterplum posted...

Right, so I traded my liability for something worth $100 more for $15. I sold these options.

I'm up $115 on the transaction effectively

Oh I think I was confused. Hmm. Yeah I don't get it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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HashtagSEP posted...

Yes, Biden wants/expects votes from the people he almost called "racist fucks."

That makes perfect sense.

Not only does he want them, he'll get (some) of them.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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masterplum posted...

Options are still magical to me.

It still doesn't make logical sense how I just traded my $33 DAL put that expires today for a $32 DAL put that expires in a week and I also got $15

Repeat that 32 more times and someone would end up with literally nothing and I would end up with $445

That's not weird. if DAL were frozen from now until next week, the $33 put would be worth $100 more than the $32 put. You only got $15 extra, because the market thinks there's a good chance DAL will rise above $32 in the next week.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I love CAR. This stock has shown me a gain of 10% like 80% of days I've had it. I might have to reward them with some business with a one-way car rental to return to California after the pandemic is over instead of flying.

Hertz has been floating between $3 and $3.30 or so during this first hour, a full 50% higher than the close yesterday. Volume is strong, at over 100 million shares already. I think volume is very important to judge whether the market is able to take 264 million newly issued shares released onto the market in a span of say, a week.

TLRD is struggling - it should be up more than 4% today after it ended up slightly in the red yesterday after the good news after close on Wednesday. I get that the market was crashing hard yesterday so TLRD couldn't really ride the good news upward, but it should be doing so today.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

biden says the charlottesville extremists were spouting "anti-semitic hate," he compares them to nazis and he says they were accompanied by the KKK but... he thinks he should watch his language because he called them "racists"? wut?

Biden is actually quite good at not antagonizing people he needs to vote for him. Now some people he views as unwinnable, and those people he tells to vote for someone else. But Biden isn't going to surrender the racist vote to Trump without a fight. All of those other things are much stronger than "racist," so Biden wants to draw a distinction between himself and other people on the left who lump literal KKK members in with people who made one insensitive remark under the label of "racist." Biden wants votes from the latter group. In this area, his political instincts are quite good.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Beautiful. 120% of yesterday's losses made up at the open.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Looking good today - on track to make up all of my losses from yesterday. I think I am going to buy 100 shares of HTZ as a speculative bet they can escape bankruptcy with this share offering. Would buy more but am all tapped out of cash for now after yesterday's purchases and I don't want to sell stock yet.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Oh gee, HTZ already up 65% in pre-market. I guess that's a good sign? I guess the market already figured this stuff out. I should probably research what the price needs to be for HTZ to escape bankruptcy.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

omfg, when he zoomed back to show how she parked her car, I lost it. This woman is white privilege in its purest form, condensed in the core of a star or something.

I get treated like this not so infrequently. I hate the question of where I am from, by which people do not mean where I was born or grew up but mean where my parents are from. Occasionally it's well-meaning. The worst question I get asked is what dialect of Chinese I speak. That's like asking an American or Englishman what dialect of English he speaks. It cannot be answered without a lengthy explanation that the premise of the question is flawed.

We need a different term than "Karen." That is itself incredibly stereotyping and insulting to all the people named Karen.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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So basically, with this plan, within some range, the HIGHER the stock price is, the better value it will be. If the price is too low Hertz won't be able to raise enough money to escape bankruptcy and all the value will be lost when the shares are canceled in the bankruptcy case. If the price is high enough for Hertz to escape bankruptcy, suddenly there is value in the shares again!

So, if the market collectively believes, everyone wins. If not enough people believe, then people who invest their money will lose it. I think I am going to pick up a couple hundred shares tomorrow ahead of this hearing. It's too interesting not to play.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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This is amazing. Hertz asked the bankruptcy court today for permission to sell up to 264 million shares of its own stock on the market to raise money to pay creditors. If they'll able to raise enough money from this they might be able to cancel the bankruptcy after all.

Basically - if enough people BELIEVE in a bankrupt company, they can save it from bankruptcy. And if it doesn't go bankrupt, it should have value after the pandemic situation improves. I hope the court approves this request - it's set for hearing tomorrow afternoon. Then we'll be able to see what will happen to the share price when a couple hundred million shares hit the market (not all at once as that would almost certainly drive the price into the ground).

I will be so fascinated with what happens if the court allows this - and I don't see why they wouldn't. This is good for the creditors, who might be able to be repaid in full if it works. This could be the first big company saved by crowdfunding.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Option 1 is the traditional punishment for men convicted of treason under English common law. Option 2 is the traditional punishment for women.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away! Note: This refers to your country, not necessarily the USA.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Would be cool if citizens of Tulsa who did not attend sued him for deliberately increasing the spread of COVID in their community...!

This would be a really interesting case. Trump wouldn't have sovereign immunity since he's not acting on behalf of the United States, but as an individual/campaign campaigning for office. I mean by asking attendees to waive liability he's basically admitting that he doesn't have sovereign immunity, right?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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KamikazePotato posted...

Legitimately the funniest thing I've seen in a while

It's like Trump asking the government of Ireland to pay for a sea wall to protect his golf course from rising sea levels caused by global warming.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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After-hours numbers are showing I recovered more than 60% of today's losses. Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Either way, feeling good about a rally tomorrow.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

This was actually the logic of the guy who was interviewed by John Oliver in my favorite Daily Show field piece (who sued over the LHC) to conclude that there was a 50% chance that it would create a black hole that would destroy the earth...!

The anthropic principle is terrifying. Basically, suppose the actual probablity of nuclear war wiping out humanity was 50% per year. How would that world look different from ours? And the answer is, if we were living in that world, it would look the same as ours. Because we wouldn't be around if that 50% ever hit.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Shadow Dino posted...

https://twitter.com/crystalkimmm/status/1271153336562188294

The person in the photo is the founder of TLRD who was ousted in 2013. Wonder if it's a sign.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Closed at -1,861. #4 all time.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Wow what a rout. We went past -1,700 points there.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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barreldragon88 posted...

So XSPA did a 1-3 reverse split and I know nothing about splits. I'm supposed to be getting a notification from the company's transfer agent, but I haven't received anything and not sure if it's coming in the form of an email. So once the transfer is over, I will be able to do whatever with the shares that I have?

It doesn't really change anything for you. It just means that 3 shares will now be 1 share, at 3x the price. They're probably doing it because they think investors get scared at seeing very low stock prices.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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In LK news, the chairman resigned......from his other company, Car, Inc. (not to be confused with CAR stock, which is Avis).

TLRD is having its annual shareholder meeting on June 26. Unfortunately, I think I bought my shares too late to be able to vote. I would vote for ousting the board and bringing back George Zimmer.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Yeah I think my portfolio was briefly down significantly more than it is right now when it opened. I didn't see it at the time because I was placing buy orders. But the time I got to check the overall gain/loss for the day the situation had already improved greatly. I think CAR went up about 14% in literally 10 minutes. Got pretty much perfect timing on that one. Didn't do as well with DAL - it didn't go below my limit order so I had to change it to a market order and it already rose nearly $1 by that point.

Also, it looks like the Dow briefly dropped below -1,400 for the day. Looks like the circuit breaker at -7% is tied to the S&P 500 rather than the Dow. Well, the S&P is doing better than the Dow by about 1% and we probably won't hit the trading halt today.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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So interestingly both DAL and CAR are well above where they opened this morning, while the market as a whole is way down from then. I suspect that this is true for other airline/travel stocks as well.

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-1,300 now. 2% more and we hit the 15-minute trading halt.

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The market is back below where it was before that stellar jobs report last Friday, which is a good sign going forward. Of course the news was likely priced in to some extent in that the market is generally smarter than any analysts, but I feel like the market probably didn't actually overestimate the jobs numbers.

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Things have been going south for the last hour. I was in the green for today for probably less than a minute. Dow now down over 1,100 points.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Huzzah! Up $6 for the day!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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On a different note, I wonder how much getting up at 6:30 to follow the stock market is affecting my productivity. Probably it's higher since I am up 2 hours earlier than before, although I am spending time following stocks and not working so it may wash out.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Only down $100 for the day now. CAR and DAL purchases at the open showing profits!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Oh hi everyone. Yeah, the discussion can continue here.

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Moonroof posted...

Corona second wave fears.

That's not news, we've known that for weeks.

Also, great timing this morning! Picked up a bunch of CAR shares at $22. It ran to $25 within minutes.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Moonroof posted...

Isnt it disheartening that one bit of bad news which came out post-close can wreak such havoc on positions?

What bad news are you talking about? I haven't seen anything major.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Dow futures down nearly 900. For anyone who wasn't watching in March, that's about halfway to the level of decline where there's an automatic 15-minute trading halt for the market to catch its breath.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Commiserations Moonroof. I picked a bad day yesterday to buy DAL. Then I added more shares today when it dropped again. It did okay during the day, was briefly looking strong, but plunged the last hour or so and was deep in the red after hours. I am kicking myself for selling at $25 a week and a half ago. Selling at $25 and buying my shares back at $33......so bad when I was intending to hold it until $50+ from the start.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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So.....George Zimmer, if you're listening, please buy back TLRD. There's a lot of value in the Men's Wearhouse brand, and I think the stock could shoot up to $10+ right away if it was bought out. Buy your company back and make me rich!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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StealThisSheen posted...

Okay, but that didn't happen, either. So again, nice try.

This is the Gamefaqs post bringing this to our attention.

If you wanna read Rowling's latest trash she posted it to twitter along the message "TERF wars", but I won't be linking a manifesto against my rights (and she's used the new Twitter feature to disable replies)

What I can do however is link this thread that cites every paragraph alongside a rebuttal for context because Rowling doesn't cite a single damn thing and constantly pulls out fearmongering lies, strawmen, and concern trolls with no specificity or substance.

He specifically says that he does not want to link to the original because he disagrees with it, but wants us to read the rebuttal, which quotes snippets out of context.

Now, it's true that JK Rowling disabled replies for her tweet, and she also shouldn't have done that.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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StealThisSheen posted...

Okay but it wasn't altered, so nice try.

Presenting stuff out of context is a soft form of altering. It changes the meaning.

I didn't express an opinion one way or the other on the content. I skimmed Rowling's essay and haven't read through the rebuttal yet. I didn't say people couldn't talk about it, I said that people shouldn't be so outraged about Rowling sharing her opinion. I mean, you can be outraged if you want, but who does that help?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i once got modded here for criticizing george h.w. bush.

i think the pro-free speech for me to do in that instance would have been to try to convince the staff that i should be allowed to say whatever the fuck i want about george h.w. bush. not to try to nuke gamefaqs.

Well, that's why you haven't been involved in 4000 lawsuits in your life and are a much more pleasant person to engage with than Trump. Trump immediately resorts to litigation over the smallest things. Working for him or with him must be an absolute nightmare. But in this case, he's protecting the freedom of all Americans, and really, the freedom of all people in the world. So his interests are aligned with ours.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i think this is really stretching the definition of censorship.

Altering speech is precisely what censorship is, even more than prohibiting it. At least when speech is prohibited, the reader will be inclined to draw the conclusion that the person doing the censorship does not have a good argument to rebut what he is prohibiting, which is why he resorts to blocking its publication. When speech is altered, it puts words in the mouth of a speaker and is a much more sneaky way to discredit someone.

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