Lurker > red sox 777

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/usmc/status/1269075089078784001?s=21

Seems really insane to me that they allowed them before

Prepare for an imminent free speech lawsuit.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

How could the not-Corrik side possibly be to blame for Corrik not understanding something he refuses to TRY to understand?

Well, Congress also blamed Obama for failing to explain to them clearly enough why a bill was bad, as a result of which they overrode his veto before realizing the bill was a bad idea after all.

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red13n posted...

in order to run true accuracy on the model you would need like hundreds if not thousands of iterations of the election.

As it stands, if the results fell within the range of the model, even if on an extreme end, it still fell within the model.

With the limited data we have we can't get an extremely high confidence one way or the other on the model. Also, a model can easily be more "right" simply by lowering the confidence of its predictions. For example, a model that simply says the Republican candidates has a 50% chance of winning and the Democratic candidate has a 50% chance of winning in every election would rarely look too bad, but obviously adds no real predictive power.

I think we do have enough data to say that the 538 model (which had Hillary at 70%) was very very likely better than those models that had her at 99%.

Also, there is no actual luck in elections. What creates uncertainty is that our models are not perfect. A perfect model would call every election with 100% accuracy. By contrast, a perfect model cannot predict the results of a game of dice or coin flipping (assuming you keep within the rules of the game, that random events are supposed to be truly random, and don't get into the issue with mechanical determinism).


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The NYT is desperate for readers. Controversy sells.

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Leafeon13N posted...

If Hillary had a 99% chance and the 1% hits the polls were still right.

This is probably in jest, but there's some incorrect math thinking behind this. The model is telling you its view of probabilities, but those probabilities don't necessarily reflect reality. You need to evaluate the accuracy of the model too. For example, if we roll a 6-sided die, we are very confident that each side has a 1/6 chance of hitting. We remain very confident about this even if say, after 50 rolls, it landed on "3" 25 times. While it seems like an anomalous result, we are so confident in our model (that each side has an equal chance of hitting) that we think it's just a run of luck for "3." But what if it lands on "3" all 50 times? What if it was 500 out of 500? At some point, we need to start questioning whether this die is fair or if it has been loaded to always land on 3.

If you have a model that predicts a single election and says candidate A has a 99% chance of winning and they lose, the most likely thing is that the model has some flaws. While it's possible the model just got unlucky, it's unlikely. Now if your model has called 99% of previous elections correctly - then we say that the model probably just got unlucky this time. But if you have no track record? Then statistically probably the model is off.


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BetrayedTangy posted...

Mayor Bowser kicked a bunch of the National Guard out of hotels in DC and the 3rd Amendment memes are phenomenal

I never thought I'd actually see a 3rd Amendment case in my lifetime. There probably hasn't been one since....the Civil War? If then?

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Jakyl25 posted...

Heres the only reason I dont say it: because there are good precincts out there. They may be few and far between, or in other countries, but they exist.

However, you cannot be a good cop if you are in a precinct that excuses officer misconduct. Like, there are no good cops in the NYPD, because they still choose to work for a department that is obviously tainted

This is getting absurd. NYPD has thousands or tens of thousands of officers because of the large population; of course there are going to be bad things that happen there. If every individual officer who disapproved of some of those things quit NY would be left without police or with only bad police. The only way to fix that would be to divide NYC into many smaller cities, each with their own police department. Then some could be good simply by virtue of statistics.

This is like saying everyone registered as a Democrat is a bad person because Hillary won the Dem nomination. If you were a good person you'd publicly burn your party membership card to let everyone know that you don't support Hillary!

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

yeah, and hillary should have used a different phrase than "basket of deplorables," right?

Both "basket of deplorables" and "all cops are bad" are so bad politically that one starts to wonder if these people are trying to lose the election on purpose.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

does LotM count?

anyway, my claim was mostly based on the fact that I'M terrified by the police brutality and given how many moderates exist, i took an educated guess that at least SOME of them feel the way i do. i certainly didn't think all american cops were saints before this, but the 24/7 stream of videos of police officers acting like absolute savages has been rather eye-opening to me. find it hard to believe that all moderates are like "oh yeah i already knew this it's totally par for the course."

Yes, LOTM is like an archetypal left of center moderate.

I think my having been afraid of police brutality for years may have something to do with me (1) being a minority (not a particularly oppressed minority, but not white), (2) having worked briefly in a public defender's office, and (3) have issues with anxiety generally. I could see white moderates genuinely not being aware, although I do feel like it's been super obvious for many years.

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Today, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high (intraday). The Dow is about 8% below its last all-time high from February. The S&P 500 is about 6% below its last all-time high from February.


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I think most brokers will let you trade OTC. Like 98% sure Ameritrade will do it.

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StartTheMachine posted...

Trusting you on this as I've noticed the same pattern. Kinda wish I pulled all out this morning but let's experiment with some new tactics. Greatly lowered my stop, and if it hits I still profit.

So with all the news of the U.S. going after China's market practices, is an LK delisting just an inevitability?

I dunno. I think historically companies rarely win at the hearing to not get delisted once the exchange has decided they don't want them. I don't think it particularly matters for LK to the extent that it has value as a business. The shares just get traded on OTC. It would matter to the extent that the share price is driven by having attention. It won't get this level of attention on OTC. So I guess if the company gets delisted and also continues to not provide real news about what's going on with its operations, the stock probably won't do well.

In any case, I am happy I sold this morning at $6.10. Would have been pretty stressful watching it lose a whole dollar.


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Now that LK is down to $5.30 I am thinking about getting back in.

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The thing is, I have been afraid of police brutality for many years. It's long been internalized here.

Now, maybe recent events are opening some eyes on this but I bet a lot of people already knew about our horribly overpowered and inefficient police and justice system. Rioting and looting on the other hand is new. This is not a problem most Americans have had to deal with before.

And Biden is one of the worst possible candidates to run against the status quo with the police and justice system. He wrote the bill that's been our status quo for the last 25 years! It's like Romney running against Obamacare when Obamacare was modeled on Romneycare.

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So the weird thing is that there was a news report regarding LK releasing earnings on a German website. But I haven't seen anything from an English language source.

StartTheMachine posted...

Who's still holding LK? I think I might bounce, but it would be interesting to hold something long for once and see if they really can come back. It's dipping now more and it's gotta be due for a pullback Monday at least, right?

I've noticed that LK has a pattern where it will drop 15-30% in 20 minutes to an hour and then come roaring back. I dunno which way it's going, but this is the kind of pattern where having a fixed stop loss of 10% would eat you alive. You'd probably be down a lot over the past 2 days even while the stock is up 120% because each spike downwards forces you to sell at a loss and then you don't get to participate in a lot of the upside because you sold at the bottom.


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Mr Lasastryke posted...

yeah, you're delusional if you think the only thing moderates have been getting out of the protests and riots is "the looters/rioters suck." i'm sure plenty of them have been fucking terrified by the police brutality that has been going on.

Do you know any American moderates? Like, real ones. And I don't count - I am just anti-centrist, not moderate.

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Unemployment was supposed to go to like 20%. Very insensitive on Trump's part though.

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I sold my LK position at $6.10. Ended up with a 42% profit. It was a very scary 2 months and in the middle I had almost written it off as a 100% loss but it worked out. Thanks for the tip!

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Moonroof posted...

Is LK still in Jeopardy of being delisted?

Yes, it's probably getting delisted. But that doesn't mean the shares become worthless. They just get traded on OTC.

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I actually held it all the way through from early April. Most of that was involuntary, I'm amazed that it ended up being my longest held stock of the season! But I approximately doubled my number of shares at $2.22, very glad I did that, and now it's my #2 performing stock of the season.

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Ha, LK was halted for 5 minutes for high volatility.

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LK opened at $6.23. Yes!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Biden has already committed not to pardoning him

Though yeah, I guess we might find out if the Supreme Court would uphold a self-pardon

Trump could probably get a declaratory judgment out of them before he leaves office. Maybe the process could be something like this. First, fly to a country that would give him asylum. Then, order the AG to initiate a prosecution of Trump. Trump then pardons himself and pleads the pardon in court. He orders the AG to oppose that self-pardon, and whichever way the trial court rules both sides commit to appealing it to the Supreme Court. Then the Supreme Court has an actual case before it and should rule. If it goes against Trump, he stays in the asylum-granting country. If it goes in his favor, he returns.

I guess the problem with this plan is that Trump would have to give up on the principle of total presidential immunity based on the idea that all authority to charge people with crimes flows from the President, and the President cannot charge himself. If he's ordering his AG to charge him, he couldn't continue to maintain that position.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1268690581062062080

There's this little thing called a "pardon."

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Oh wow HTZ was up 86% today. I was thinking about buying some shares with it being below $1 and all but now it's at $1.50. That's probably too much to pay for a company that's already filed for bankruptcy, right? Unless there's a bailout package moving through Congress that I don't know about.

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Corrik7 posted...

He's on tape

He could have been under a mind control spell.

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This one includes political crimes only.

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Vote away!

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Corrik7 posted...

Well, appeals are what cost the money.

I am saying if say. If you choose to charge for death penalty, it is 100%, zero doubt and successful. If not, they walk. This would make the death penalty cases plummet due to the standards and be for truly heinous cases, example Boston Marathon bomber.

That's not 100%. What if he was being mindcontrolled? What if he made a false confession to protect the real culprit? It may be unlikely but not impossible.

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This talk about Trump not accepting defeat is ridiculous. Trump isn't Hillary, he knows how to mitigate damage when he loses. Usually it's the bankruptcy court, but here, he just leaves office.

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1268688013791506450?s=21

So much for the theory that she was only allowed to make those votes because the Republicans had it covered without her

Or at the very least, so much for that being the case any longer

Don't you remember? Trump tried to bully her to vote for his healthcare bill by threatening to withhold federal funds to Alaska unless she voted for it. She called his bluff and voted against it. Now Trump is taking his revenge.

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Corrik7 posted...

And?

I mean, Marx was pretty much a hypocrite. He also spouted off about taking everyone's property from them. The removal of the media and not allowing individuality.

Cops in his desires weren't really an end goal, they were just useless as they are now. He viewed any cop who wasn't going around arresting capitalists as protecting capitalists and thus the enemy. His vision was of course purges like in Russia where the police arrested dissenters, instead of trying to help the people themself directly.

Not sure he is a role model to look up to for many.

You were talking about in theory. The theory is there, it's like 170 years old. It's absolutely been contemplated.

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Corrik7 posted...

People who want the abolishment of the police also likely want anarchy and/or are criminals.

You honestly believe that America could survive as a nation without any police force? You honestly think that would even work?

Now, I am expecting you to answer them from a mindset that isn't anarchy, overthrow the government angle.

Even in the communist dreams or socialist dreams or whatever, they are never without police forces.

I doubt you would ever see a candidate ever who would run on a no police platform.

Uh, according to Marx eventually there will be no countries, no police, and no armies.

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Jakyl25 posted...

You still really have no idea what youre talking about even after so many people have tried to inform you. Its staggering.

While you are generally a good poster who explains his positions, 70% of the leftist posters here do not include an ounce of explanation in their posts. All of their drivel consists of posting links and flaming people. So that would not count as "informing."

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This topic has gotten very bad lately. Lots of people just venting anger.

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I was going to sell today if it went above $5.20 or so. But now.....I think I'm holding out for more. I think my thinking is that after such a big gain there is almost always a sizable fall before the next leg up. Well, we had that big fall today from $4.90 to $3.30. So it might not be coming again.

If the fraud turns out to be fairly isolated, this stock is worth $20+ per share.

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Logan is Jake's brother.

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So, today was actually a record volume day for LK. 286 million shares were exchanged today, which is more than the 264 million shares the day the fraud was revealed. Actually, 286 million shares is more than 100% of the shares in the company. Lots of people jumping in and out and back in!

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Well, guess I'm holding onto LK for at least another day. I don't want to sell at $4 after it almost touched $5. Back to $7 with you!

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Moonroof this sell for a 2% gain strategy has a major flaw which is that one big loss will wipe out like 40 gains.

I once had a run of 30 consecutive winning blackjack sessions, using basically this strategy (leave when you are up a little, stay and play if you are losing until you win it back). The problem is that you are not changing the underlying odds of the game, you are just concentrating the downward variance in one giant defeat while spreading the positive variance over many small increments.

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LK getting hammered in the last hour. Gave up more than half its gains for the day. Darn it.

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metroid composite posted...

I mean, there's a difference between obviously socially constructed crimes like Marijuana Possession (which is legal in some places and illegal in others) and Truancy (truancy laws have existed for less than 300 years) and what I've heard a psychologist call "crimes against humanity"--i.e. murder, rape, which are illegal everywhere (including among relatively isolated indigenous people) and tend to be written into just about all the religious texts.

You could maybe get an interesting debate out of murder vs rape vs slavery vs torture. Or you could exclude the "crime against humanity" crimes and get an interesting debate out of those.

Yeah the intent was to get a debate about socially constructed crimes. My polls are supposed to be lighthearted; debating crimes against humanity is too heavy for this.

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We cleared a barrier at $3.50. Now we've cleared another barrier at $4.40. To the moon with this corrupt coffee!

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LK! $3.50 barrier BREACHED!

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Which of these options would you take?

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Murder probably should not have been on this list. I figured it was an obvious enough answer that people might choose a different option, but it's got a clear majority right now.

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In other news, LK is now 89% above the bottom. And still 95% down from the top. Here is a story of one person who put his whole life savings of 260k on LK in January. I think there was a guy in the US who did something similar and after the fraud story broke, he went to a bunch of Starbucks and poured hot coffee on himself (I guess trying to get a lawsuit out of it like the famous McDonald's hot coffee lawsuit).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italian-trader-loses-his-entire-life-savings-on-one-insanely-risky-position-2020-06-03?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

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StartTheMachine posted...

Okay, finally on my work break and...can anyone tell me what all this means? This is why I didn't want to margin trade! Literally all I've read on it was like double your gains, double your losses, but I couldn't resist scooping up more GNUS earlier today. And I actually have no idea why my cash balance is still 4k and I didn't go to that before it started taking out on margin. I think maybe it just hadn't transferred from my bank yet?

It looks like it's positions - margin balance + cash = my total account value. But is there anything to worry about with the margin balance? Like is there interest rate on it? Or is there only interest rates on losses for it and not gains?

Btw that was 11k of my own money in there so I made 14k in one day. My entire savings from my job this year is 12k.... I make $15.22 an hour. Today has been unreal.

Congratulations on the big win! Be careful though. With margin you can lose more than 100% of your investment. If the position value falls below the margin loan, the brokerage will demand that you send more money right away, and if you don't, they sell your stocks and use it to repay the margin loan. If the value of the stock falls very quickly (for instance, if a stock gaps down overnight), you can end up not only losing your whole investment but owing the brokerage money.

I'm saying this because the fact that you made 14k off of 11k in a day means that you opened a very high risk position (that succeeded). If it's possible to get a +14k result it's also possible to get a -14k result, which would probably be quite crushing.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I think Joe Biden is inoffensive enough for most of these Republicans who've turned on Trump, but honestly, I imagine their change in support has little to do with Trump's abysmal handling of this situation and his being the most unabashedly bigoted President in like 50 years (though that makes a good public reason). They're probably just tired of sucking the guy's dick. These people are rich and powerful and certainly unused to kissing the ring the way they've had to the last three years.

I think a lot of these people would not turn on Trump if Bernie was the nominee. But, these people are pretty useless for a general election. They have money, but very few votes, and not many of the people with the votes like them.

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We ran out of poll options for some things like running a private email server. Decided not to include particularly sensitive crimes.

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