Lurker > Suprak the Stud

Uh did not expect any Republican convict votes at all.

Mitt Romney is the last congressional republican with a spine. Who wouldve guessed.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Predicting that he gets 54 votes to acquit (GOP + Manchin), which is especially important as it gives him a "bipartisan group of senators voted to acquit" line.

Manchin is like 99% to acquit. Dont think he floats the get lets just censure him thing if he was going to vote for impeachment.

I also dont trust Sinema fully either.

(Also If you didnt already think Jones was losing in November youre a crazy person)

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

It polled through Jan 16 through Jan 29 so the reason it is so far back on 538 is because of the start date.

Its also Trumps best poll in ever basically. And isnt a complete outlier since hes been polling up recently! So the media arent crazy to cover it imho.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik7 posted...

First of all there is not 13 since the Gallup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Gallup is the latest, and it is the baseline always used for msm.

Secondly, the latest Rasmussen (which was yesterday also was -3).

But since you are curious and don't like trends of the baseline Gallup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

As you can see, the trend is moving towards more approval since October of 2019.

It definitely isnt the latest, it was just the last released:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

BUT it went all the way through the 29th so it is very recent still and relevant and it is Gallup which is a great polling agency.

Also your overall point stands that this is the best Trump has been polling since almost the beginning of his presidency!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Like I normally dont mind Weigel but it is wildly irresponsible to share that without taking two seconds to fact check it (or understand the reasoning for it in the first place).

Hes fanning the flames for no reason.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Grimlyn posted...

Did you stop reading at "it is normal", because SEP's point that followed is still completely accurate that it very much is normal

Iowa's overall fuckup wouldn't change urban areas tallying up slower, if they weren't slagging behind today they'd have still been slagging behind yesterday.

And not only this, I pointed out a page ago that this is lazy nonsense conspiracy theories. They intentionally (or maybe stupidly) circled the wrong area for Davenport to act like it was a Sanders area and not a Buttigieg area.

This being some vast conspiracy to thwart Sanders is just complete nonsense crazy talk. But again I sort of expected it after how poorly Iowa handled things yesterday! You open yourself up to the insane with stuff like this.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Eh cnn and MSNBC put Bernie in headlines. Everyone knows Bernie did great

All reporting Ive seen all day was how great Bernie and Buttigieg did. Im not worried in the slightest! NH should be even better.

R-E-L-A-X Tony. Twas a good day.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1224852351078498304?s=21

This is very normal and cool.

The third biggest circle is wrongly attributed. They circle the word Davenport which is over a Bernie county but the hey should be circling the county with Davenport in it which is a Buttigieg county (the dot in the county right to what they circle).

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Also doing the math the vitals seem a healthy tick above 2016 or is my math fuzzy

I can't see where the outstanding votes are from on my phone so I can't tell exactly. I heard it was pretty close to 2016 regardless.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Wanglicious posted...

yeah pete did incredibly work on this one. still seems likely that some of the early predictions had the right idea just the wrong candidate: bernie wins popular vote, pete wins delegates.

both come out as winners.
warren comes out looking solid.
biden jobbed.

Looking forward to NH. If there is another anemic Biden performance...things could get fun.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Yeah this is pretty great. Hope we get more delegates than pete in the end but this turn out is wonderful for Iowa. Pete went super hard in iowa

Honestly better than best case scenario like two weeks ago even like two weeks ago! We'll see the final tallies soon, but yeah Iowa is dumb and total delegates doesn't matter all that much.

Bernie getting most votes would be HUGE. Pete worked hard for Iowa so yeah gg Pete too. Can't believe he buried Biden so hard.

Corrik7 posted...

Mayor Pete is deserved an apology.

For a couple of reasons, yeah.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Klobuchar is right behind Biden.

Worst case scenario for Biden really!

If Klobuchar winds up doing well enough to stay in, this is honestly best case scenario possible for Sanders imo.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Good night for Sanders overall I think!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

BIden got absolutely bodied.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Susan Collins cant possibly be delusional enough to believe this:

https://twitter.com/grace_segers/status/1224803887531679744?s=21

And its unacceptable for him to be seeking foreign assistance at all, careful or not!

Susan Collins has it on good authority that after this election, he 100% pinky promises not to seek foreign aid in any of his subsequent elections.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

pyresword posted...

Yeah this is what I was trying to get at in a more roundabout way. (mostly because I was not and am not confident that I'm not missing something.)

But it seems to me like the result of this whole thing is just that an accurate and reliable count gets released 12-18 hours later than expected, which doesn't seem to me like it should be a big deal.

If they said ahead of time it would take this long, I'd be 100% ok with the wait as accuracy is more important than speed. The way they handled this was what made it such a mess.

If this becomes the norm, fine. But they need to be clear about that before voting begins!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Votes expected to drop in like 50 minutes.

Ooh boy.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Republicans keep trying to add fuel to the fire of conspiracy theories:

https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1224722983152947200?s=21

Theyre doing this because they know its likely to hurt the Dems by making people cynical and ultimately more likely to stay home.

These guys care about Bernie 0%. They just know the fringe of his supporters dabble in conspiracy theories, so they push this sort of nonsense to upset them. And its working! Then they'll go "well at least the republicans were telling the TRUTH about the SANDERS SCREWJOB". Boo hoo poor Sanders (even though we've been calling him evil and a crazy person for years now but please ignore that).

Biden isn't even who the "establishment" has been pushing - that would be Warren. And if they're going to cheat, why half ass it so Biden finishes third or fourth or fifth or whatever he'll finish - why not just have him finish first. Good sportsmanship?

If Sanders wins the nomination, there will never be a candidate the republicans try to savage worse than Sanders, I guarantee it. So this bullshit "oh poor Bernie" nonsense is so disingenuous it borders on gross. But the fringe of the fringe Sanders supporters will buy it so mission accomplished, I guess.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ALSO he's an incumbent now, which should lead to a better performance even if his exact favorables/unfavorables aren't as good as they were the day he took office. Incumbency is a huge benefit.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

In less depressing news: the six latest NH polls all have Sanders up, from a range of +1 to +19.

So we got that going for us at least. Interestingly enough, Steyer may end up being a HERO in all of this. He keeps biting into Biden's numbers in SC and Sanders best path forward requires Biden to not utterly dominate the south. Sanders can't make inroads there but if Steyer can at least keep Biden somewhere between 60 and 40 percent of the delegates, I think Sanders might have a legitimate shot.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

oof

Haha they might have actually doomed Buttigieg's campaign, even if he turns out to have won, because of how they handled this!

Sanders isn't helped either, but Buttigieg literally goes from "very little shot" to "almost a statistical impossibility".

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

What a disaster last night was.

Add in that Trumps approval rating officially hit its highest levels yet, higher than Obama at this point in 2012.

lmao its probably over

I've been almost certain of this for a while now, but yeah this does sort of solidify things! Never underestimate the incompetence of democrats, I guess!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1224574845536624641

Better to wait for the official numbers than to try and absorb numbers released by campaigns based on incomplete data (at minimum, the decision to release them is presumably dependent on how good the numbers are for that campaign).

I mean yes that is definitely the rational take...

But I choose to be irrationally hopeful instead!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

here's bernie's numbers

https://twitter.com/misyrlena/status/1224578150358831108

Ooh boy. I know this obviously isn't the full picture...but this would be close to best case scenario.

Now we just have to wait like twelve more days for them to sort all this out to know if I should be excited or disappointed.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Kinglicious posted...

Alternatively he's treating this clusterfuck like calling for dibs.

"Who won?"
"It's unknown."
"Who won?"
"Still unknown."
"I see. ...I won this."
"Bu--"
"Can't tell me I didn't~"

After all the chaos settled down, the Iowa DNC agreed that the "dibs" method was the fairest and most democratic method left.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Iowa Democratic Party statement:

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_7/status/1224550364256575488

oh boy

Buckle in everyone.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Maniac64 posted...

The local news stations are also confused and annoyed by everything.

All these lazy reporters are because they want to go home and are annoyed they have to stay late to do their job. Its going to be non-stop complaining tomorrow about this.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Never attribute to malice what can as easily be explained by incompetence.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik7 posted...

CNN is just straight shitting on the Democratic party responsible for reporting haha. They just said a caucus leader just tweeted out his results because the app they made doesn't work and they had him on hold for over an hour to try and report his numbers.

Lol.

Yeah the people over at 538 are guessing it has something to do with some stupid smartphone app that is BRAND NEW and WE DEFINITELY TESTED IT AND AREN'T JUST WINGING IT WE SWEAR.

What a great way to start off the 2020 election cycle!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Iunno, other shit to do and if it weren't for the miscount their votes would have been locked in?

After candidates become viable, they aren't supposed to become "non-viable" so a lot of people leave at that point. But then you have stuff like this happen.

Caucuses are so dumb and weird and why can't Iowa just vote like normal non-crazy people?

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Hey viable Buttigieg and Klobuchar saps some Biden strength so uh yeah lets hope they fall in the "did well but not too well" category that keeps them in the race!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I wish lung cancer on no one.

I will only note that he has been a smoking advocate for years and also openly and repeatedly denied the dangers of second hand smoke.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yeah Machin is almost a guaranteed no for removal.

I'd say Sinema is like 50-50.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ALSO now that the Super Bowl is over I can fully focus on stressing the fuck out about Iowa.

Please Iowa dont break my heart.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Joe Rogan can be a complete moron but hey I absolutely appreciate him bringing liberalism to a larger audience so thumbs up to that for sure. More people is always a good thing imo.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I've talked myself up into Bernie winning Iowa to the point now that I will be stupidly disappointed if he loses. After months of telling myself he or Warren didn't stand a legitimate chance.

I'M READY TO BE HURT AGAIN.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Dancedreamer posted...

Yes, but in an announcement in where you're saying you aren't going to run for President against say... Bernie Sanders, you don't say that Joe Biden WILL be the nominee. You say "Whoever the nominee is, I'll support them. I'm not going to run." Or is that only expected of progressive candidates?

I mean, AOC did more to trash Biden than Kerry did to trash Bernie. And I like AOC much more than Kerry! But this sort of language is expected of surrogates at this part of the nomination process. If Kerry is still trash talking after (and if) Bernie secures the nomination, we can then go about mocking him for being irrelevant. For now he's just doing fairly normal stuff imo.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

5tarscream posted...

Why on earth did you kill me N1 and not one of the many stronger players that ultimately lead to your downfall. Puns, Corrik, Chris, Ben all would have been better options although chance of hitting bp and doc is higher I guess

I think most of the scum team would admit they werent trying all that hard (in comparison to everyone in town at least) so they didnt put a ton of thought into actions. I think someone mentioned you were posting a lot and then no one else said anything and that was it? Maybe they can explain more.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

MZero11 posted...

we were blocking blind trying to hit doctor

what we failed to realize is that we blocked you already, Han claimed RB and you didn't counter, so obviously you weren't the doctor

I don't think anyone was paying very close attention when choosing night actions

The eh whatever attitude to night actions is probably what sunk you guys. Even at the end people were thinking both Ben and Han could be town (check puns board) because perhaps there was a role that could target MZero. As puns said he doesnt know what scum has.

You guys didnt consider this though or how paranoid town would be over everything. It didnt help Blade sunk you guys immediately, decided to leave mid lynch without asking for a replacement, and was one of the driving forces to getting Scare lynched for no reason.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

this is so fucking stupid. legitimately incredible error.

This was one of the last big polls before the vote so now we get to go into an already wildly unpredictable vote with even less certainty.

Weeeeeeeee!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I mean I kinda forgot about putting the tag in at least half of the topic titles tbqh

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Steal their SEOUL in South Korea!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Although I was about to PM Lolo and yell at him when he kept honking while town was like gee what flavor would even make sense for a scum thief anyway.

Damn goose ruins everything

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ScareChan posted...

Yeah! you kept honking and I was like !!Lolo needs to stop giving up our theif!

I promise Lolo never saw the set up!

Hes just a psychic IRL

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

TotallyNotMI posted...

I'm *probably* going to go back into retirement for the time being. I had fun but I just don't have the time to really dedicate to it the way I want to.

Hey man thanks for coming back for a SUPRAK (TM) game! Nice having you around again!

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

turbopuns3 posted...

mfw I saw SBell claim BP

They 100% knew you were BP too!

...you'll have to talk to them about the reasoning.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

turbopuns3 posted...

Suprak <3

<3 you too puns

Really good game! Perfect bp game, imo. Good job in the late game, even if you were talking yourself in circles on your board.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

TotallyNotMI posted...

Did they not RB D2/3 or did they blindly RB and just have Han claim it?

The latter.

This confused both you and Corrik equally, I think.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

puns and Corrik did amazing as town protection, so great job to both of them.

Awesome job to Lea and Chris and puns and the super secret vig but also a get info on two players board.

Scum had a rough draw, but it wasn't helped that I think these were probably the five most inactive people in the game as a whole. Town as a whole worked well and even when they got things wrong they kept on working, which was great!

I think both Lea and Han's roles worked well! I might use some variant of those two again because they were fun.

Thanks for playing everyone! I missed you guyz. Glad mafia was back, if even for a short time.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

...nah. not really. Can you imagine though? I just wanted to make this very predictable end game somewhat interesting if even for ten seconds.

MI was town.

TOWN WINS

(now you can talk tee hee)

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."