Lurker > red sox 777

Regarding this floating hospital idea - I feel like even giant ships like cruise ships still pitch with the waves. Is it really a good idea to put sick people on ships where they may get seasick? Some people are very sensitive to this.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

"I wish the news could be real. I wish it could be honest. I wish it wasn't corrupt."

Donald Trump speaking right now. Keep it up, Mr. President! We need to really tackle the fake news problem.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

It's really depressing watching people get rich off a crisis with disposable money they have available while I am just hoping not to have the crisis kill my job off and leave me unable to pay my mortgage for my family.

= /

If you were a really good trader you'd have taken out a second mortgage in February and used the money to sell casino/travel stocks short. Then you'd have flipped your position at the bottom and bought them.. You'd have made a fortune by now and wouldn't need to worry about losing your job as you'd be rich.

That said, people don't usually like to brag about their losses. So if you are reading a message board, you're going to see mostly stories about winning. Even when the country has a whole has lost trillions in the last month, so people on here making money is definitely a minority outcome.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I have serious serious problems with outsourcing determinations of credibility to journalists. Especially considering the current state of journalism in this country.

There were accusations against Hillary that I believed because she either admitted to them or the evidence was absolutely compelling. Like, Hillary didn't dispute the fact that she made a 10,000% return in 6 months trading cattle futures and then just stopped. Her only explanation was that she had a child and didn't feel like gambling anymore. That kind of return, coupled with a complete lack of explanation for it when attempting to provide one, is compelling evidence for insider trading to me. But trial by media? Absolutely not. No way.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

At this point, if journalists aren't reporting, one starts to believe it might be true. That said, the principle of innocent until proven guilty must be applied equally to all and that includes people I don't like like Joe Biden.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

So the "expert" consensus prediction is that coronavirus will kill 246,000 people in the US this year. I believe Sephy has predicted under 10,000. We'll see who is right.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

So this is the first season I've followed since Redemption Island. I'm pleasantly surprised that Survivor is still going but disappointed that gimmicks have become the default and they've stopped going to different locations.

I feel like the tribe swap is the worst one of the twists because it harms strategy and there is no real way to strategize around it. It's just random.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

China is closing its borders to foreign citizens. Good call - their initial containment worked well enough outside of Hubei that the rest of the country is, in a lot of ways, similar to the rest of the world before an outbreak and therefore vulnerable to the same dynamics of exponential growth.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/26/gordon-brown-calls-for-global-government-to-tackle-coronavirus

Gordon Brown calling for a world government. I am so happy we have Donald Trump in office. Hillary might have considered this.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

This would be one of the good excuses Im talking about!

But I wouldn't know that until getting the vaccine. I've never gotten a flu shot in my life. Never gotten the flu either. So maybe it will kill me.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

There are some people who cant safely get vaccinated and it isnt 100% effective, so the risk isnt only to those who failed to get one. Unless youre one of those rare people who cant safely get vaccinated, the burden imposed by forcing people to get a shot is minimal.

What if I'm one of those people who can't get safely vaccinated? You could literally kill me by forcing me to be vaccinated.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

About half of people don't get the shot (even though as you say it's easy to get one); if you wanted to eliminate a lot of those deaths you could require people to get it absent a good excuse.

No, but people who don't get one chose not to get one. How can you possibly justify forcing them to get one when no one can be harmed other than people who have knowingly chosen to take that risk?

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Nope, though the flu's fatality rate is typically at most 0.05% with R0 of like 1.3. But there are still like 20000-70000 deaths a year from it, which is a lot! There's probably a pretty good argument to be made to make flu shots compulsory.

How could there be? Anyone who wants a flu shot can get one.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

NYC is also doing a lot more testing, but yeah they almost certainly have a higher R0 than almost anywhere else in America. They also, however, likely have a higher R0 than the Italian cities..

Because NYC is denser than a typical Italian city. It's one of the most densely populated places in the world.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Just looking at the density isn't the right thing to do; you need to look at the density that each person sees. Because most people live in urban areas, most people will experience the R0 of an urban area. The 20% or so of people that live in rural areas will indeed have a lower R0 (though I'm not confident it would be below 1; you're still quite likely to infect the people you live with, for example, regardless of the local population density), but then you average that with the 80% of the population that lives in dense areas and you're not going to be seeing any order-of-magnitude improvements.

Yes, the question is at what level of density the big move in R0 occurs. If it's between NYC/Milan/Wuhan and say, San Francisco, then we're probably fine. If it's below the density of places of Boston, Atlanta, etc. we are in for some pain and if it's below the level of a typical American suburb we're in for a lot of pain.

But I would say that the lack of explosive growth of the virus in California so far is very encouraging for the rest of the country.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

You are right that R0 is definitely density dependent and will vary by location, but the vast majority of the US population lives in urban areas, and we're seeing community spread pretty much everywhere. It could indeed be the case that when you factor this in to the "no action" scenario it's actually like 40 or 50% of the population that's infected before herd immunity stops the spread, but it's not gonna be like 5 or 10%.

Only about 33% of the US lives in cities according to the last census. It's 51% suburban and 16% rural.

And there are differences in density among cities. We're seeing a tremendous divergence between CA and NY already. Recall 2 weeks ago CA had more cases than NY. Now NY has 15x more cases. The shelter in place policies ordered by the two states has been essentially the same.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Im aware that not everyone will get it, but a majority will without suppression given R0. Whats considered an acceptable amount of death to not be worth shutting stuff down? If you say its 100,000 Americans, you require current estimates to be high by a factor of 100. Thats an absolutely major fuckup, and there would need to be strong evidence to suggest thats the case to warrant any change in strategy. In fact, its getting close to being explicitly ruled out; .01% of Italys population has already died, so even if the entire population of Italy had gotten it and recovered already youd already be to 20000 American deaths if, say, 60% of the population got it. Obviously all of Italy does not have it and some of the Italians who currently have it will die, so less than 100000 American deaths in the do nothing scenario.

The United States has approximately 32 times the land area of Italy and approximately 5 times the population. Thus, our population density is about 20% of Italy's. We also have a considerably younger population and social customs that naturally provide more distancing. We also have a delay of about a month for warm weather to take over and for hospitals to prepare.

In the US New York now has more than half of cases. This is very likely because population density has a tremendous effect on R, and the effect is compounded exponentially.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Biden's lost quite a big of ground in the 538 model. He's only at 29 out of 30 now, instead of 99%+.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Im not really using any assumptions besides the current estimated death rates (~1% with treatment, 3-5% without treatment). The fact that the virus will spread throughout most of the population without intervention is an inescapable consequence of the fact that R0 is considerably higher than 1. Being off on the death rate by a factor of 10 means its 1 million deaths instead of 10 million; thats still an unacceptable scenario.

If R0 is close to 1, herd immunity kicks in very fast. If R0 is much bigger than 1.......then probably it has already spread through a large percentage of the population and the death rate is much much lower.

Also, people have been calculating R0 based on its spread rate in dense cities. NYC is the only place in the US with population density on par with Wuhan. And it's followed much the same trajectory as Wuhan. R0 is probably massively lower outside of a dense urban environment.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Trump calling out the media for what they are (hoping the economy tanks so Trump loses his election)! Bravo!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ERI is a super levered play. They announced a plan to buyout CZR last summer (yes, a smaller company buying a bigger company) mostly by borrowing money to do it. Not sure if it's going to go through or not. CZR is trading way below the price ERI is supposed to pay for CZR stock so the market seems to think there's a good chance the deal falls through.

Supposing it goes through, you then have a casino company with a large number of B-tier casinos, almost all in the United States. And a crazy amount of debt. So it's a high risk high reward play. The total value of all their properties without the debt is many times the market cap now and many times the market cap from February even. But if the buyout of CZR happens and the recovery is slow, bankruptcy is a real possibility for the merged ERI/CZR.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

Also, it is time specific. So, if you get laid off in say the middle of June, you only get the extra until the end of July. Not the full 4 months.

Oh that's really stupid. Yeah in that case people are definitely incentivized to get themselves laid off ASAP.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

It's your state's amount plus $600.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

There has to be details missing on this federal ui. Max UI in PA + Federal UI would be $29.53 an hour. And it is not taxed the payroll tax so 7.6% less tax there. Not the state or local tax. So 4% more there.

No union dues, etc.

I mean it is the equivalent of making like $34.38 an hour or something. (At least).

Has to be something missing here.

The median HOUSEHOLD wage is $25.48.

The average HOUSEHOLD wage is $34.13.

Keep in mind this was negotiated by people for whom that is chump change. Also, that max UI in Pennsylvania is high compared to other states. It's only $450/week in California which has a higher cost of living. I think Lindsey Graham was saying 350ish in South Carolina.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Everything the government pays for has to eventually be paid with taxes.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Well the problem with UBI is that it is vastly vastly more expensive than only paying unemployed people. $1,200 is already something like $300 billion. It's like $3.6 trillion a year. I don't know how we pay for that.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

If I feel like I may get laid off eventually I think I would work as long as I can so that my unemployment starts later and I get more money.

But yeah, capping it at actual wages is good. I think capping it at 100% is fine and protects people who barely make enough to make ends meet.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

Apparently, the language of the bill doesn't even cap the $600 extra to 100% of your wages. So some people make more money straight up to be on unemployment here.

Yes, that's what the Republican senators are complaining about. If people are actually getting a raise from quitting, I appreciate the concern.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

Do you think people care right now during a health crisis? Do you think the average person thinks ahead? And what about the people who all lost their job cuz the idiots who don't think ahead do this?

Hell, many probably think if it doesn't come around and boomerang back, the government will have to extend it. I know people who were quite glad to use the like 40 months of UE that was extended them during the last recession to the max.

I dunno. If I were offered a choice between working the next 4 months or not working and still getting my regular paycheck for the next 4 months but without having a guaranteed job to return to I'm definitely still working. That would not even be close. Because I'm afraid of not being able to find a job in 4 months or only finding a position at a lower salary. That we're in a crisis situation in which the economy could be crashing only compounds that.

Like, what do I say at a job interview in 4 months? I quit my last job so I could take handouts from the government for 4 months? That's not going to get me hired.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

It doesn't say for employers to lay them off. It says for employees to want to be laid off.

For example, let's say my mill has 25 people a crew per shift. They realize they can make the absolute same amount of money for 4 months to be laid off. So, they simply just call off over and over and over until they are let go because they "fear going outside due to the Coronavirus". They will get let go and be eligible for unemployment. (Trust me calling off terminations always get unemployment here).

In the mean time, the plant can't run with the reduced workforce / overtime is too insurmountable. Thus, the plant just has to shut down for good anyways to layoff.

My dudes can sit there in front of 2000 degree ovens scraping jams for $26 an hour. Or they can get laid off and make the same amount (maybe more since ui isn't taxable the same way wages are) without sweating their nuts off. And, trust me. We have enough guys that fake injuries for S & A during the summer alrdy cuz it's really fucking hot with all our gear on and the ovens.

Are they that confident they will be able to quickly find work again when their supercharged unemployment runs out?

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

How does that incentivize employers to lay people off? It seems it incentivizes employees to ask their employers to lay them off.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Just one caution on stops. It's not guaranteed because the stock can gap past your stop. Like, let's say it closed at $20 today and the stop didn't trigger. Some disaster happens overnight and the stock opens at $15 - then your order gets executed at $15 instead of $19.75.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

No such thing as dependent exemptions anymore. Just credits. I believe the credit on them is both $500 each (possibly $300).

Neither comes up to $1700.

Oh that sucks. They should definitely fix this then to make the phase out higher for people with dependents. Although they probably won't because there is no time.

It's like the grad student tax the House had in their original draft of the Trump tax cuts that was going to impose a tax somewhere around 75% on grad students earning 30k a year. Fortunately the Senate caught that one.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

It is funny though that if I hadn't done my taxes early, I could have not claimed my fiancee and her kid as dependents. Which was what $1000. Then she could have filed $0 with her kid as a dependent and been able to get $1700 in this rebate.

Weird scenarios like that can happen.

A dependent exemption is $4,200, so if your marginal tax bracket is 24%, 2 exemptions = $2,016. So it seems you still come out ahead by claiming them.

But basically you are screwed over to the tune of $2,900 for not being married on this rebate. You are also losing something like $7,000 on regular taxes for not being married. I feel like the government probably should not be pushing people into marriage so hard.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

Children owning business of any said above noted are also banned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1242695043938426880

Not a fan of this kind of thing. Congress might as well just pass a law making it illegal to be named Hillary Rodham Clinton.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Suprak the Stud posted...

This summary already makes it look way better than their original bill. Like Tony said the 1.2k is a weird amount because that isn't going to really help people that need it so that part isn't great but overall this is a massive improvement over the original republican bill. I like a lot of these stipulations they put in to fix what democrats were hesitant about.

Democrats...did...something?

Prohibit businesses controlled by the President from receiving aid? Well, the President doesn't control his businesses, right? His children control them. That's the official story.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Also just read an article that someone in China died of hantavirus. This one is supposed to not be transmittable from human to human though.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

TheRock1525 posted...

Also before you put too much stock into Trump's bump, keep in mind that Macron is now polling in the 50's right now as compared to the 20-30's of the past two years.

Every leader who's country hasn't completely imploded is getting a bump.

That will help incumbents win elections across the board. Trump will get the most benefit since this is an election year for him.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Oh right. I also want to take this opportunity to point out that for people making more than like 80k, student loan interest is not deductible. I always thought this was absurd - if a company paid for an employee to go to school, the company could deduct that expense from its income. But a student can't deduct interest for loans he took out that got him a job? Really, it would be fair if students could deduct both the interest and the principal, as well as tuition they paid out of pocket, as a business expense.

Generally I don't think the student loan situation is at all unfair to students, and actually income-based repayment is great for students. The problem is with the high tuition. But this tax treatment always felt weird.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

So just file?

So the annoying thing is that since 2018 is now an old year, you are only allowed to file a paper return and the IRS website says that takes like 6 weeks to process.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Its a strange amount.

Not enough to stimulate an economic downturn this severe, nowhere close to a living stipend, will barely cover rent for a quarter of the country, etc.

It almost seems like a pittance amount because of the expectation. But my fear is that the lack of a result will make UBI an even smaller possibility. You almost have to wonder if it was designed for that.

It's a bribe to win the election. It is a big enough amount to make people feel happy. And maybe they'll use it to buy a high risk stock that's fallen a long way - that what I was going to do and that would stimulate the economy.

The Republican senators were talking a lot in the floor speeches earlier about providing government loans to small businesses that are forgiven if they do not lay off their employees. I hope that ended up in this.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

That $600 a week sounds good. So CA $450 + Federal $600 = $1,050 per week = approx. $4,600 per month for not working. I guess I can probably survive on that if I get laid off?

The means testing on the $1,200 is disappointing. It looks like I'm not getting anything. But honestly, if it's one-time, it's not that much money anyway. The unemployment insurance thing is bigger because I think I could make ends meet on $4,600 a month without tax withholding. I don't think I can on $2,000 a month, which is what the state was providing before this. So that's some more peace of mind for if the economy really is going into Great Depression mode.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

Yes, but AOC seems like she might object alrdy

I don't think she will. She's like 30 and was a bartender before this. I don't think she'll feel comfortable letting people die or lose their jobs because the bill is delayed so the House can debate it in Washington.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Ron Paul would probably vote no on this bill by the way, if he were still in the House.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Glad to hear they finally reached a deal. Hopefully they got the stupid parts out of it.

It's sort of amazing how removed from the conversation the House is. Pelosi wants them to approve it by unanimous consent so they don't have to come back to Washington to vote.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Well let's be totally clear because I think Hillary voters didn't get it in 2016. If Trump beats Biden, it will be entirely your fault for choosing Biden in the primary. Don't blame Bernie supporters. Don't blame Republicans. Don't blame the elderly. Don't blame young people. Blame people who voted for Hillary/Biden in the primaries. It will be your fault. 100%. Because you could have changed your vote without compromising your principles but you didn't, even though you knew where it would take us.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

People are in deep, deep, denial about 2016. They keep hanging onto two things that are completely outside their control and useless, namely the popular vote and the Comey letter, as an excuse not to change their strategy at all and expect a different result.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

He probably shouldnt be setting a date for the war to be over then

It's going to be the fastest the USA has ever won a war!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

TheRock1525 posted...

Also never put too much value into a Trump "spike" in popularity. Last time his approval rating got this high was February 18th. Less than a month later it was a -10-11 net rating. Right now he's getting the temporary "well he didn't shoot himself in the foot so I guess he's doing a good job" and then he will inevitably shoot himself in the foot.

He's getting the wartime president boost.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Welp. Trump directed anyone leaving NYC to self-quarantine for 14 days.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!