Lurker > red sox 777

Suprak the Stud posted...

You were a potential voter! And a totally reasonable individual for essentially the entire topic series! ALSO you are far from the first person who has listed "Sanders supporters" as one of the reasons you aren't overly enthusiastic to vote for Sanders in the primary. You may not be representative, but you're far from an anomaly.

Like SEP said, what I was particularly annoyed about was Sanders said "can you guys just give them like ten minutes be cool her campaign just died" and then I see "YAS SNAKE VANQUISHED" all over Twitter and reddit immediately after. Again, not Sanders fault at all but...c'mon man. Please.

Oh you are talking about XP. Well, if Hillary had fewer supporters like him, she might have won.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1235677617749188608?s=21

wow

Rigged! Behold the power of bitterness.

Don't worry, Bernie supporters may be nicer people, but they aren't complete pushovers and a nice sizable percentage of them are going straight to Trump once their nomination has been stolen from them.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I think there are some areas where Biden will be pretty willing to be pushed left and others he wont be. Like obviously hes not gonna take up M4A, but I could totally see him going even bigger on climate (though please god dont make that in the form of dumb stuff thats actually actively bad like going anti-nuclear).

He's already been pushed hard left on gun control with his promising to put Beto in charge, which is going to cost him a lot of votes. Good luck winning an election when you have gun confiscation on your platform.

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MichelBollinger posted...

I mean I've said it before and I'll stand by it. If Biden gets the nom, no matter who wins in November we will still have a a Republican president. Maybe not a conservative one, but a Republican nonetheless.

We don't have a conservative president right now. And he is a Republican.

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TBH it would be more realistic for Bernie and AOC to go to Trump and strike a deal with him. The deal will be basically we implement the Green New Deal and pay for it by borrowing or printing money. And we build statues of Trump in every city center across the country.

But this deal has to be made while Trump feels he might lose the election, and an endorsement from the Left would be decisive.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Would a Biden endorsement in exchange for his concessions to implement more progressive policies not be a win for the movement? Not Bernie's movement - progressivism.

No, because those policies will never be implemented. We have a great phrase to describe them - dead on arrival!

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1235670073869766656

Democrats are now the party of billionaire SuperPAC donors

Trump landslide victory incoming. I know Trump bought a Youtube homepage ad for right around election day so I hope the ad is something like this:

Mike Bloomberg has spent $3 billion dollars running ads to attack me over the past 6 months. I've spent $0 because I haven't run any ads. This is my first and only ad. I paid $3 million for it. That's 1000 times less. I don't need ads, I don't need money, because they don't decide elections. You do. Let's teach Mike Bloomberg a lesson.

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pyresword posted...

This is just a factual statement. 90% of the things you post here don't represent your actual beliefs, as a guess.

False. Just because my beliefs don't fit into a neat left/right axis doesn't mean they don't exist. But sure, with some of my beliefs I don't feel the need to say them because others are already saying them. That's why I don't criticize Trump here - I wouldn't be adding anything to the conversation by repeating criticism others are already handling.

But as far as the things I do say, I think I always believe them or if not it's pretty obvious by context what my meaning is.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

They had to shelter them somewhere, which is why those facilities were built. It was a response to a horrible situation where there were no great answers. Trump created his situation by choice.

I'm sure there's plenty to criticize Obama about with how his administration handled unaccompanied minors, but it's not comparable to the deliberate cruelty unleashed by the Trump administration.

That's not the point though. The facilities are the same. They can't be "temporary shelter" when Obama uses them and "cages" when Trump uses them. The facilities are the same.

If you can't acknowledge the facts, you can't win people over who don't trust you.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Please, please, please do not spread this misleading bullshit. Those facilities were built because of a massive influx of unaccompanied minors. That was a terrible situation, but it was nothing like what Trump did by forcibly and and a matter of course separating families. Do not normalize that shit.

The Sunrise movement isn't the sole authority on what constitutes a good climate plan (and imo they seem extremely biased). Greenpeace gives Biden a B+.

So it's okay to put minors in cages when they're not accompanied by a parent?

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Attack memes of Biden on Sanders and Sanders on Biden are still fair game until one or the other drops out, so I'll allow it! In fact, Biden fans can attack anyone they want for all I care. Drive more people to us plz.

Sanders and his supporters are some of the worst coalition builders I've ever seen. We were all *shocked Pikachu* when like 100% of his supporters went to Biden, but where else was he supposed to go. He had been called rat nonstop by Sanders supporters, had a constant barrage of insulting Twitter/reddit posts directed at them, and were mocked absolutely nonstop online. This is someone that his supporters believe in, that they like, that they think is a good person with good values. Equating him with some sort of monster, even when it is clear he is not a viable competitor, is insane. You aren't going to get his voters if you make them feel like bad people who are unworthy of respect.

Like, you can be 100% right or you can win. I'd rather win. 80% our ally isn't 100% our enemy and we are alienating potential voters with this nonsense. If you want to think it doesn't matter, fine. But as someone who supported Sanders in 2016 and is still clearly very salty about the way he was treated by Clinton and Clinton supporters, you should know better than most just how much it matters. Like you personally drove off one Warren supporter last topic, man.

Well that's Republicans win. Trump attacked the other Republicans about 20 times as hard as any of the Democrats have attacked each other (besides Bloomberg) and they lined up 98% behind him in the end. One aspect of political acumen is knowing you can get to support you by making such attacks and who you will drive off. And yeah, Bernie's political acumen on a national level is not great, which is why he's been on the outskirts of power for decades.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

sure, but this started with the claim that LotM is "the liberal corrik" and that's simply not true. i'm not saying corrik is as unbelievably insufferable as sephyg but he's a lot more aggressive and inflammatory than LotM.

I don't think any conservative here is aggressive other than Sephy. Conservatives get attacked so often here, they defend themselves and it looks like there's conflict.

Sure, I suppose Corrik can be slightly more dogmatic than LOTM in his beliefs, for instance his statement yesterday that Bernie definitely cannot win the nomination.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

In the interest of full transparency I got this from /r/neoliberal and took the subject of the meme to be the people tweeting snakes at Warren, not Warren herself (who I certainly don't think is a snake)!

Snake is unfair. But if she doesn't endorse Bernie 2 elections in a row when the opposition is Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, she's just someone who sits back and does nothing for people who need help when she can't personally win.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

come on. in this context, "welcome to liberals" is pretty much a euphemism for "liberals are fucking idiots." it's definitely a lot more inflammatory than "i disagree with liberals."

It's coarse but frankly, loads of people say way worse things here on a daily basis. I've been called "not a real person" by multiple people recently, for instance.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

what's "welcome to liberals holy fuck" supposed to insinuate, then?

It doesn't sound insulting to me. He's saying he disagrees with liberals. The foul language is not directed at liberals, it's an exclamation of shock.

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Yeah I think with Bernie as nominee the Dems can pretty much forget about Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. Virginia might be in play for Trump.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

I love this tweet.

You guys are both going to be sorry when Biden and Sanders get coronavirus and Gabbard strolls into the convention with the only living person with delegates.

Well, technically all the other candidates who quit only "suspended" as opposed to terminated their campaigns. Sp they could come back in.

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I will be so so happy if Bernie and Biden are exactly tied at 1990 delegates each and Tulsi Gabbard gets to cast the tiebreaking vote at the convention.

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Also, what is the risk of letting Tulsi debate? That she'll eviscerate Biden? That will be good prep for the general - if he can't stand up to Tulsi he won't be able to stand up to Trump.

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Besides, Tulsi may be able to do a lot better now that her only opponents are a socialist and an old man teetering into senility. There are 32 more states. She should get that chance.

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metroid composite posted...

I'm honestly pretty ok with them setting debate requirements one higher than whatever Tulsi currently has. Like...most of the rumors around her have been either that she's angling for a job in the Trump administration, or angling for a job as a Fox News contributor (she's been going on Fox news a lot, went on Dave Rubin's show and agreed with his implications that all other dem candidates were unpatriotic).

Or if you think Hillary Clinton was being honest in that one interview, maybe Tulsi's a Russian asset (seems unlikely).

Either way, there's a lot of risk to letting her into the debate, with very little upside.

It just shows the DNC is willing to change the rules to play favorites. This time it's Tulsi, last time it was Bernie. If the DNC doesn't want Trump's attacks against it for rigging to be effective, it's got to stop making these ad hoc rule changes.

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So Warren once again fails to endorse Bernie against a paragon of centrism. Please remember this if she runs in 2024 and Bernie has retired by then.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

DNC spokespeople have already said the debate requirements are going up so it'll certainly exclude Tulsi.

Or maybe it'll be time to initiate RIGGING MODE and they'll put Bernie under the cutoff too so it'll just be 3 hours of Biden monologuing

Changing the rules to exclude Tulsi? Rigged!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Speaking of words and meanings:

https://twitter.com/jediofgallifrey/status/1235334331398225920?s=21

No, Sleepy Joe, they aren't the establishment. You are!

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A runoff between our top 2!

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KanzarisKelshen posted...

One last post for some context on how I reached that final number: If we look at LA and assume its percentages more or less hold, Bernie gets 5 delegates there and Biden 2 (no way LA is less than 7 dem delegates). Let's say San Fran is 6 delegates, Bernie gets 4 to Biden's 2 there. Suppose Fresno is a 5 delegate location, that's a 3:2 split. Basically Bernie's default for most of Cali is between 75% and 66% of all delegates, with a low of 50%. The reason I feel so confident on Bernie is that ending 10 delegates behind is absolutely nothing when you remember he was 200 behind at this point vs Hillary. Biden is not Hillary and no amount of $$$ can prop that up. You have to really, really, REALLY bank on late deciders continuing to go hard for him and that's a big stretch IMO. Bernie has reasons to rise, and Joe has reasons to fall. That is all.

EDIT: Also, Rock, Tony, I feel like this nerdy math is honestly a better use of both y'all's time than getting mad at each other. Penny for your thoughts on this?

Uh there is no way LA county is only 7 delegates. That is going to be something like 14 congressional districts. More like 70 delegates.

Yes, LA county has a bigger population than Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming combined.

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Or I guess what I mean is: In the United States meaningful negotiations are carried out by Republicans with Republicans. Or by Republicans with foreign countries. Democrats have been ejected from the decisionmaking process entirely.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

tulsi has sucked ever since she made her main point that "WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE REPUBLICANS." giving up your principles before even starting any kind of negotiation with the opposition is weak and bad.

Well yes. That's why she's a good candidate. Once you are a friend to Republicans you get special privileges a Democrat doesn't get. Like the ability to do anything you want and have the Republican Party back you. Want socialized healthcare? If Trump proposes it the GOP will back him 100%.

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metroid composite posted...

I would assume because of the population, actually.

California is 10% of the electoral college, but 12% of the US population. California should be worth more than it is in the Electoral College.

That's what I thought at first, but New York has 320 delegates to 261 for Texas, and Texas has a much higher population these days (36 to 27 House seats).

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Wanglicious posted...

Washington, most likely sure.
...the rest uh... no? that all seems like it fits with biden's new support.

I think Idaho goes for Bernie, like Utah and Colorado went. As for Michigan and North Dakota, I think you're reading too much into an LFF result in Minnesota with a major dose of home state effect from Klobuchar.

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Wanglicious posted...

what much of the south? almost half of it still hasn't voted, including some major states like Georgia and Florida in there, which are easy Biden states that he's gonna be pushing 50% on. as for the midwest, white suburban voters don't vote for bernie nearly enough. biden getting some 37% in minnesota gives that away. as for the northeast, biden won Maine and Mass with absolutely nothing done in either. he even got delegates in Vermont but the fact that he got himself Mass despite bordering that state is extremely telling of where voters are gonna line up.

numbers absolutely do point that way. just gotta look at the states still in this.
eyeball test absolutely does point that way. just gotta look at the states still in this.
spotlight is more questionable, sure.
if you think being Moderate Voltron isn't favoring him, you're just being delusional and refusing to accept yesterday. the man's biggest issue was financing and that's done.

like it's one thing to have hope for the guy and another to act like he's the favorite and you're doing the latter for some reason.

Well there's something called LFF. If Warren continues to get votes, then sure Bernie is screwed. Although she doesn't necessarily have to quit - she could just get fodderized as voters realize she has no chance.

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Also, I looked at the upcoming primary calendar. Next week we have:

Idaho
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
North Dakota
Washington

I'm seeing 4 Bernie wins here?

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Wanglicious posted...

oh god i just talked myself into a scenario where pete gets the nom because coronavirus hits one of warren, biden, or bernie, resulting in none of them being trusted and pete unsuspending his campaign as the only guy under 50 and therefore most likely to survive.

(and they won't pick tulsi.)

Please calm down. You're getting ahead of yourself.

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Wanglicious posted...

bernie ain't getting the midwest, he ain't getting the south, he's probably not getting that much of the northeast either considering he lost Mass so badly out of nowhere.

but dead? nah.

Much of the South already voted. Why wouldn't Bernie get the Midwest and Northeast if Warren drops out or her supporters pull the plug for her?

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Corrik7 posted...

It could drag on til the end of time. Bernie Sanders campaign is dead.

Well in that case I'll register my opinion that Bernie's chances of beating Biden remain higher than Biden's chances of beating Trump.

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Corrik7 posted...

And nobody cares. Bernie's candidacy is dead now.

No it isn't. Do you expect Bernie to just quit when there are still 32 states left and the delegate count is super close? Whether or not he wins, this is going to drag on for months.

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Kanz, do you know how the delegates for congressional districts are allocated? Is it still proportional within the district?

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Yeah, it's sort of amazing seeing how CA gets more than twice as much representation in the D primary than Texas. And NY also gets more than Texas despite having lost its lead in the EC 20 years ago and having 9 EVs less now.

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I think it's accurate that after California finishes counting the delegate count will be very close. California gets more representation in the Democratic Primary than in the Electoral College. I guess because there are more Democrats there.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

You can call it fear, but I'm sure that getting rid of Trump by any means is just a higher priority than healthcare to these voters.

Because those voters already have private insurance. And their employers pay for it so they are okay with the cost!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

We've been over this before, but the "no evidence of wrongdoing" is an understatement. The existing evidence heavily works against any sort of allegations of malfeasance. Biden worked to get Shokin fired because it was the policy of the Obama administration (with backing from Congress, including from Republicans). Shokin was a corrupt prosecutor who was one of the main impediments to removing corruption from Ukraine. He had shelved the case on Burisma (which involved conduct before Hunter was even hired) well before Joe's successful effort to get him fired.

From a legal sense, no evidence of wrongdoing can be stronger than positive evidence against wrongdoing. Here's why:

Suppose a defendant is charged with some crime and 1 witness testifies against him. 100 witnesses testify that the defendant was at a different place at the time the crime occurred. Can the jury return a verdict of guilty? Yes, technically, the jury is entitled to believe 1 witness over 100 (although I doubt many juries will do so in practice).

Now, suppose there are no witnesses against the defendant and no witnesses supporting him. Can the jury return a verdict of guilty? No, the judge is supposed to dismiss the case or direct the jury to return a verdict of not guilty. Any guilty returned by the jury will be striken as wrong as a matter of law. Because there is no evidence against the defendant.

So yeah, I would say the media is totally wrong and just shows their own bias by making the statement they made about the Bidens in such a clumsy way.

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pyresword posted...

If the media claims there is no evidence against Biden and a person believes there is in fact evidence against him, then they must believe the media is either lying or willfully misrepresenting what would constitute evidence, neither of which I would think would be considered placing "a fair amount of trust" in the media.

There's a lot of words with fuzzy definitions here but this would seem to me to argue against your claim that comparatively positive media coverage of Biden's scandal would have no impact on his performance in an election because of the media lacking influence on public opinion. Because--again--words with fuzzy definitions, I don't think I can say this "contradicts" your argument which is more of an absolute logical statement.

Yes, but the source of the fuzziness was the media making the statement that there was no evidence against the Bidens. Read literally, that statement is simply false. There is circumstantial evidence. Joe Biden publicly bragged that he got the prosecutor fired. Hunter Biden was paid whatever he was paid to be on the Burisma board. The prosecutor was investigating Burisma. That is evidence.

What the media is really saying by saying there is "no evidence" is making a conclusory statement that the above and other evidence don't show wrongdoing by the Bidens.

TBH, this kind of hiding the ball is what lowers people's trust in the media to start with. You have to read between the lines of what they are saying to get a realistic view of things. In other words, you don't have a great deal of trust in them.


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I've noticed Bernie keeps talking about turnout. I assume he's saying this because he feels the Democratic Party won't be receptive to him arguing that he can win swing voters, but I hope he is not pinning his hopes on turnout to win the general election.

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pyresword posted...

Yes and I'm asking you to stop contributing to the spread of misinformation by willfully disregarding scientific studies in favor of spreading your feelings about the way the world is.

Going to point out that that this poll (admittedly this is just the first result I found) https://news.gallup.com/poll/243665/media-trust-continues-recover-2016-low.aspx suggests that 42% of Independents place "a fair amount" of trust or better in the media. While this number is depressingly low in my opinion, I think we can agree that this or even the 21% number attributed to Republicans would represent a significant portion of the electorate

I don't see how 42% of independents having a "fair amount" of trust contradicts my argument. That means they don't have a "great deal" of trust in the media, i.e. they make their own judgments about what the media is saying. So they aren't going to take conclusory opinions like there not being evidence against the Bidens at face value. I mean, obviously there is evidence about the Burisma thing that speaks for itself. The question is whether you consider that to be convincing "evidence."

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Also, LOTM, don't be surprised if sometime in October Ukraine announces that it is going through with the investigation of the Bidens after all. Because they found new evidence.

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metroid composite posted...

See, the problem is that what Biden did was legal.

I mean, it shouldn't be. Kids of high up elected officials should not be allowed to take big checks effectively from foreign governments. I don't like it when Trump's kids do it, and I don't like it when Biden's kids do it either.

But there's no law there. Kids of famous politicians are allowed to go around the world and make money off of their last name. There should be a law there, but know who writes the laws? Famous politicians with kids.

But by the same argument, what Trump did was also legal. And the House practically admitted it in that they did not charge Trump with actually breaking any law.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I mean yeah I shouldnt underestimate the ability of the media to bothsides, but they were generally a lot better about pointing out that their was no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Joe and that there was no evidence of Hunter doing anything unlawful than anything they did with Clinton in 2016. Its possible that that all goes out the window in the general, but I think that there will at least be significant pushback in the newsrooms.

LOTM, you should be smarter than this. Do you think anyone who matters (any swing voter) still believes what the media reports at face value? There are probably people going, the media said there wasn't evidence against the Bidens, they must have done it!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I mean hes still gonna use it and some people are still gonna believe it. But I dont think that the media is going to buy in to it to the extent of EMAILS.

The Burisma scandal is way way way bigger than emails. It would be more like if we had found Hillary's emails, and in some of them she threatens to withhold billions in aid unless a foreign country donates to the Clinton Foundation.

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Yes, Trump was put on trial and he was acquitted. Biden has yet to stand trial.

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Wanglicious posted...

ultimate plot twist would be bernie going 'fuck you guys i'm making my own party' and running 3rd party in the race.

I would be really happy if he could beat the Democratic nominee. He could even start the downfall of the Democratic Party after almost 200 years and replace them with a new party, like the Republicans replaced the Whigs.

Something like:

Bernie Sanders

California
New York
Vermont
Massachusetts
Hawaii

102 Electoral Votes

Biden

District of Columbia
Maryland

13 Electoral Votes

Trump

Everything else

423 Electoral Votes

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