Lurker > red sox 777

LordoftheMorons posted...

So what do you do? Hope he self-destructs?

At this point? Just hold out for a brokered convention if you really want to be president. If your priority is to remove Trump then hold out until enough voters had their say to make it clear and endorse Bernie.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Re Warren, while her performance was good she made a massive strategic failure in barely touching Sanders. When you're in third or fourth you can't afford to ignore the guy in first.

When she went after Sanders she steadily lost support. Bernie has teflon, he's not someone you can beat by attacking. It's why he's uniquely suited to face Trump, the most aggressive attacker in recent political memory.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

It is a hard question!

Though she could have done better than praising his kids. His kids suck! She could've said he's occasionally funny I guess.

The question requires you to see things from someone else's point of view. Millions of people think Trump is fantastic. Hillary needed to be able to put herself in their shoes. That she couldn't is really bad for a politician, especially one who could have hired people to think of answers to this kind of thing. I think Bill could answer that in his sleep.

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Pete's #2 in the delegate count and #1 among moderates. Biden and Bloomberg may both be imploding. Amy doesn't like Pete because they are going for the same voters and 1st/2nd/2nd is a lot more impressive looking than 3rd/no delegates/no delegates.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Still better than "say something nice about Donald Trump"

For all the preparation she did Hillary should have had an answer for that! Seriously it's not that hard a question.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

It's gross that NOT ONE of the candidates is calling for a massive military invasion and tactical nuking of Syria to stop these massacres from happening

Wouldn't this cause more death?

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Sephy I'll say it. Castro did some good things. Lenin did some good things. Mao did some good things. Hillary.....I can't think of any good things she did.

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Bloomberg learned fast. But man Trump would wreck this oligarch so hard.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Lmao yeah Bernie let's do something radical and help minority communities become drug dealers

Worked for the British. They even got Hong Kong as a bonus.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The filibuster is a very useful tool defensive tool for the Dems. Just today Dems filibustered a 20 week abortion ban that had 53 votes. The Dems hold the House now, but two years ago they didn't.

Xp is way overconfident. Hope he doesn't complain when Mitch abolishes the filibuster and the GOP governs this country like a dictatorship.

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Bloomberg is downright dystopian.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

A foreign policy question plz

Would you as president support the restoration of the Soviet Union?

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Jeb owning the crowd didn't matter either. Don't worry about it.

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KamikazePotato posted...

What is wrong with this crowd

Trump got booed at the Republican debates too. He just accused them from the podium of being Jeb's donors and special interests.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Since Sanders is bringing up the Lancet study (thread):

https://twitter.com/onceuponA/status/1232388636085084161

Peer review as a method systematically entrenches the elite. It is inherently anti-democratic, anti-socialist, and conservative (small c). I propose that President Sanders align with Republicans to sweep away this archaic system that is holding us back!

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"If you don't like me, you should vote for President Trump!"

Biden 2020

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I mean, if Joe and Hunter are both running for Senator in South Carolina.... I think Joe would probably win.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

He won moderates in Nevada tho

When you double your nearest opposition, you tend to win all the subsets. Like how Link wins every single hour against Magus, even in the middle of the night.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1232360371249266689?s=21

tldr of the study is that while Bernie polls about as well as other Dems in head to heads with Trump, he does this by losing several points with swing voters and making it up on youth vote turnout. For Bernie to actually be as electable as, e.g., Biden, he relies on youth turnout going up by 11% beyond what it would be for an alternate Dem candidate. One point of reference made in the article: this is more than the increase in the black vote for Obama in 2008.

Many of those "swing voters" who say they are planning to vote for a Dem or undecided are going to vote Republican at the end of the day. Probably a lot of them are evangelical and will say up to the last week that they are horrified by Trump and haven't yet decided how they will vote, before voting en masse for him on election day.

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MichelBollinger posted...

Maybe I'm a bit too hopeful, but I feel like this is a move that is even going to shake some of his own base.

Also, anybody OK with it please pipe up now so you can join Sox on the mutual block list.

Are you talking about the Supreme Court decision? Trump had nothing to do with that. And I didn't say I like the decision but it can't possibly be surprising given how the law of territorial jurisdiction has been for 2000+ years across Europe and the West.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

This is fucking disgusting:

https://twitter.com/scotthech/status/1232386077157134346?s=21

No recourse for people literally murdered across the border by border agents.

You should probably blame the Senate and People of Rome. If they didn't come up with the concept of laws stopping at an imaginary line in the sand, they certainly enshrined it as a legal principle that nations the world over use today.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Given the 15% threshold to get any delegates I cant see how having four moderates would possibly reduce Sanders delegate share. Two maybe, but then youre also gambling on a contested convention working out (and even if it does, that it doesnt sufficiently backfire in November). For someone like Amy Klobuchar, unless she has no preference between any of the other candidates there is just no reason to stay in the race except delusions of grandeur.

Because Bernie is the 2nd choice of a significant number of people whose first choice is one of the moderates. "No one" is also a significant second choice.

But yeah, they are screwed in November if they try this. But they refuse to acknowledge that. They cannot so much as think about the idea of Donald Trump winning without recoiling in horror, so they just don't think about the general election.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Man, this thread would almost make me optimistic if I had any confidence in Amy/Pete/Bloomberg dropping out:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1232409097330470912?s=21

TBQH with proportional allocation of delegates, the Democrats might be better off reprising their 1860 strategy. They (or splinter parties) ran 3 candidates against Lincoln hoping that each of them would be able to beat him in different regions of the country and force him below a majority of the Electoral College.

It didn't work because most states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and so Lincoln won a clean majority of the Electoral College with 39% of the national popular vote. But with proportional allocation of electoral votes, Douglas would have gotten many electors across the North and the non-Lincoln candidates would have had a decisive majority in the Electoral College.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Literally every election cycle there is at least one major candidate who tries the "my opponents vandalized/assaulted my staff!" route. And it has never worked at all, ever. Until campaign headquarters are being burned to the ground, no one will care one iota (and they shouldn't).

I think there was a Taiwanese candidate who had himself literally shot a while back.

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Also, history with Trump shows that people don't get mad at Trump because he decides to do things that are PC from time to time. They tend to just accept it as good policy.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Right, but the implication is that there is a sizeable portion of Bernie supporters who support him for being anti-pc but otherwise don't care about his positions?

That just doesn't track.

I am kind of in this group. I support Bernie's goals and very much appreciate his understanding of the actual dynamics of wealth and power in America, but am not very excited about any of his specific policy proposals.

But it's not like any of Bernie's policy proposals are going to pass through Congress anyway. That's why the details are not so important. Bernie can shift the national conversation, and hopefully someone will figure out the details.

For the same reason, I don't see any real value to Warren's detailed policy plans. They are dead on arrival in Congress.

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Uh...that's why Bernie is electable. The F the establishment people are more than half the country. You can't win without a respectable showing there.

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Comey's conduct was bad. If he didn't want the controversy of interfering in politics he should have taken Hillary's case to a grand jury and let them decide.

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The right strategy is to make Trump attack Bernie. Because Bernie is loved by the people. Trump will only be able to say that his ideas are too expensive or poorly thought out - much much weaker than Trump's ordinary vicious attacks.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

do you really think bernie wouldn't be aggressive

Bernie has, I hope, the understanding of the electorate to know not to fall for that trap.

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And it's super easy for Trump to make short work of Warren's plans. Why didn't you bring these ideas to Obama? Why are you only thinking of this now? Why did you accept so much money to teach at Harvard? Why are you posting your detailed plans on the internet so our enemies can plan how to counter them? If this kind of questioning ever seems ineffective for him he'll just call her a liar and sellout.

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Warren would be more aggressive which could hurt her. To be defeated Trump needs to be ignored. Bernie is the only candidate who has a chance of making the debate about his ideas rather than Trump's.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

To further explain my thinking: Bernie and Trump both argue kind of the same way, focusing on big things in the abstract. Bernie can come after Trump on his being corrupt or whatever, and then tie that back to his general message about a rigged economy. That could be decently effective. Trump then counters with bragging about the economy and attacking Bernie for being a socialist etc; he has something to go with.

The reason Clinton destroyed Trump is that she exposed the fact that behind it all, he's a fucking moron. Once you get down into the details, he doesn't know anything about anything. Bernie will get plenty of hits in, but I don't think he'll do that (or at least not to nearly as great an extent).

She didn't destroy him. She landed no blows in the eyes of people who weren't convinced to start with. The results speak for themselves.

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Jakyl25 posted...

But then hell come right back once he realizes that living elsewhere makes you vulnerable to Russian tanks and realizes that you are only safe within Americas borders

Why is Marco recording this while driving? Because in the USSR he would have a driver as an important member of the ruling party?

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I'll tell you why the email scandal was so effective. It was because ordinary Americans could not imagine themselves making a "mistake" like that. Not without a corrupt motive.

And then Hillary's response was totally ham fisted. She left people to guess what was in those deleted emails. And so they guessed it must be really really really bad.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Everyone will be attacked. The question is which attacks will be effective.

But I guess "fucked up proper email protocol" was a massive scandal so what the fuck do I know

The traditional Republicans are no good at attacking. They are way behind the times. When you see attacks from Trump, you'll know you have something effective.

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The problem is compounded by the fact that corporations are different from regular people in that the profits of a corporation can be funneled out of the corporation's hands during the good times so that there is no money left during the bad times when the corporation has legal liability for losses. Here's an example.

High Risk Corporation conducts a business. Let's say hurricane insurance for areas with a low risk of being hit by a hurricane as an example. Its actuaries calculate the premiums it needs to collect to have a positive expectation given the risk of hurricanes in the area. Suppose there is a 10% chance per year of the area being hit by a hurricane, and the hurricane will cause $10 billion in damage. HRC then charges homeowners a premium that covers this cost ($1 billion per year), plus a little extra for salaries, expenses, and profit. Let's say $1.2 billion per year.

In year 1, there is no hurricane. HRC collects $1.2 billion in premiums. It doesn't save the money though. First, $100 million is spent on regular business expenses, like employee salaries, office space, advertising, etc. Now there is $1.1 billion left. Now, the directors decide that it's high time to pay big bonuses to its executives. $200 million is spent on bonuses, leaving $900 million. Next, the company pays $800 million to its shareholders in dividends, leaving $100 million in the bank.

This repeats for each of years 1-9. At the end of year 9, HRC has $900 million in the bank. It has paid $1.8 billion in bonuses and $7.2 billion in dividends.

In year 10, HRC collects its premium of $1.2 billion and spends $100 million on business expenses as usual. Now it has $2 billion in the bank. Then the hurricane hits. HRC now needs to pay $10 billion for disaster relief but has only 2 billion in the bank, so it is 8 billion dollars short. The shareholders and executives have already been paid $9 billion in bonuses and dividends, and they have been reinvesting the funds so they over $15 billion saved up at this point.

The directors meet, and decide the only sensible course is for HRC to declare bankruptcy. The homeowners who purchased its insurance are screwed over, while HRC's executives and shareholders are busy buying 4th or 5th or 6th vacation homes.

Now, there are probably laws regulating the insurance industry to prevent this scenario from happening. But those laws don't apply to banks who aren't insurers but have come across a business model that is similar enough to take advantage.

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Any normal investor who bought shares in the banks at the time the US government was bailing them out made many times what they invested. Because it was risky, because they were investing in seriously insolvent banks on the edge of bankruptcy. The American People received their money back plus pennies on the dollar as profit. That is not a good deal.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Most of it was paid back. The US government made a profit overall.

That the US "turned a profit" on this one occasion does not mean the strategy we played was a good one. Essentially the game we played was as follows:

You take $100 and play roulette at the casino. If you win you keep your winnings and your principal. If you lose, I go to the casino with $1000 and try to win $101. The odds are strongly in my favor of reaching this goal (nearly 90%). If I succeed, I give you back your $100, call the $1 "profit," and declare victory. If I hit the 10% or so chance of losing all - I'm not going to think about that.


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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Probably could have stipulated some way to pay that money back instead of their CEOs getting massive bonuses though.

If the US had bailed them out the capitalist way - by buying shares in the banks - the People would basically own the banking industry right now. Each American citizen could receive quarterly dividend checks in the mail.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I want him to listen to the CDC because he doesn't know what the fuck he's doing.

If the Obama administration hadn't bailed out the banks we would have had another depression.

We did have another depression. Which we would not have had if we had a President Bernie in office who the banks knew would not bail them out.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thread:

https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1232072081589796865

I always imagined Trump massively exacerbating a financial crash by not doing politically unpopular things that needed to be done (e.g. bailing out the banks), and this is another area where you can easily imagine him making things much worse due to his narcissism if American COVID containment fails. Can one really be confident that he wouldn't fire the head of the CDC for correctly informing the public about how bad things are when he just fired acting DNI Maguire for informing Congress about Russian 2020 election interference efforts?

You were afraid of Trump taking virus containment too seriously and now you are afraid of him not doing enough?

And you are afraid that he would NOT bail out the banks? That kind of attitude is why the banks felt so comfortable taking big risks in the first place! They knew they would be bailed out if they lost, and if they won they got to keep the profits.

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Jakyl25 posted...

It would be pretty impossible, but I would really like to see the inverse of that happen once just to see if it motivated the GOP to dump the EC

And then HOPEFULLY the Dems wouldnt be idiots who now suddenly defended it.

The GOP is too smart to fall for that. Just because you win once at roulette does not mean the odds are in your favor.

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Trump has told reporters today - Bernie would be the toughest for him to beat.

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Yeah Trump has always given extremely rosy projections to his lenders.

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iiaattgg posted...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-2020/index.html

interesting article. i dont know enough about the guy to say he was just caught off guard or if he actually doesnt know. either way its certainly not the best answer one could give

It's honest and believable. When people put a price tag on sweeping changes they have no creditability. We are frequently wrong but as much as a factor of 10 for highway building projects!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Update on my effort to get my parents back to Biden: my dads back on the fence. My mom is still with Mike.

Are they voting for Trump in the general?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

This doesnt exactly sound like a list youd want to be on

If you're a bourgeois elite who wants to retain your hold on both political power and wealth, you wouldn't want anyone on that list.

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Yeah, these attacks on Bernie for having an upper middle class amount of wealth are not going to work. The man is a US senator. No one expects any US senator to be poor, even one who represents the poor. You know who else represented the poor in politics? Fidel Castro. Mao Zedong. Vladimir Lenin. Julius Caesar. Donald Trump. Not one of them personally poor after being in public office.

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Speaking of vacation homes, I propose that the US government buy Mar A Lago from Donald Trump. For 60 billion dollars. So Trump can run billboard ads proclaiming that he is richer than Michael Bloomberg.

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