Lurker > red sox 777

Tbh most Dartmouth students would be better off financially with Pete rather than Bernie. They'll make good money when they graduate and Bernie will tax them.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Warren's attack on Bernie was extremely ugly and I'm glad it looks like it backfired.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Not sure if the Republican tally was slower to report or if the first few towns to report were blue areas but Trump looks like he's got overall first locked down now. 28,000 lead over Bernie.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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If Biden does badly in SC I think he quits. But if he gets first with a strong showing he probably is suddenly in the lead by delegate count. Remember SC has about the population of IA and NH combined.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Donald Trump has taken the lead from Bernie Sanders for the first time since I've been tracking it:

Trump 20,046
Sanders 17,261

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Trump also moved his state of residency to Florida. I guess he's all in on winning there.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Yeah, I'd never claim that this is favoring Bernie in an "unfair" way or anything like that - this is just the nature of a contested primary with no clear powerhouse that can unite the party. Republicans were dealing with this exact same thing in the earlier stages of 2016 before Trump emerged as their god king, and they dealt with it throughout 2008 and 2012.

Blue!

The Republican winner take all system is really good at ensuring there is a decisive winner. I'm not sure Trump actually gets nominated in 2016 with a proportional system.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Basically, but I'd go a step further and reassert my claim that the same handful of Midwest states decide everything. Your state is somewhat safely blue now, as is mine (NV) and Colorado. Iowa and Ohio are safely red, which is a net loss for the Dems because Ohio is huge. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and I know I'm stretching the "Midwest" range with that last one) decide the election.

And Florida is still bizarro world.

It's a small state but I'm feeling NH for Trump this time. Only a 3000 vote gap last time.

Florida is really really important.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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KamikazePotato posted...

I know Biden was expected to lose this and he could improve once more votes come in, but was he supposed to do THIS bad?

New Hampshire probably has the most elastic voterbase in the country. The NH state house or senate went from a Dem majority in 2008 to a supermajority of 75% of the seats for Republicans in 2010 and back to a Dem majority in 2012. Some other states get to be swing states by having about the same number of hardline devotees on both sides. NH gets there by having a ton of people willing to vote for either party.

But that means that people are already open to switching their support to another candidate and why back Biden when he's clearly getting 5th here?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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KamikazePotato posted...

It's weird to me how defeatist so many people are about beating Trump when he's badly losing every national poll in a 1 v 1 setting. Just because something with low odds already happened doesn't mean it's likely to happen again! That's not how odds work!

(Also reminder that Comey handed him the election on a silver platter)

Well, remember that Trump can afford to lose the national popular vote by a fairly significant margin and still win. Last time Trump lost the national popular vote by about 2 points and he won the EC by about 1 point in that if you reduced his vote by the same percentage in each state, you would need to lower it about 1 point for him to lose the EC. So you could say that last time, Trump had a built in advantage of around 3 points in the EC.

This time, all signs are that deep blue states are going to be heavily energized to turn out the vote against Trump, which means that the spread between the EC and national popular vote is likely to be even bigger. So if you see a poll with Dem +4 or +5 against Trump, it's better to read that poll as even.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I assume it's vs the 2016 Dem primary

In that case the Democrats are completely screwed. NH has more party crossover voters than pretty much anywhere and you can register to vote on the day of the election. If they aren't outdoing 2016 that means they are getting virtually no Republican voters to cross over and vote in the primary that actually means something. And that means they aren't winning in November.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Also, it looks like tonight is going to be close for first place in raw votes between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Seph, are you saying that turnout in the Democratic primary is on par or lower than 2016 or in both primaries combined?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Actually, is it normal for results to start being reported before voting finishes?

I thought that used to not be a thing

It was common before 2000, when some networks called Florida for Gore before voting had even closed in western parts of the state. People understandably were upset (they said they went home instead of voting since it had already been called).

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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So what happens if all the prosecutors on that case resign and the DOJ refuses to replace them? I suppose if it happened before the conviction was entered the case would have to be dismissed for lack of prosecution but it if happens between the conviction and sentencing?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Crimeas independence referendum was carried out under the watchful eye of Russian military occupation after the Russians installed a pro-Russian government

As opposed to the California referendum which never happened at all?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Jesus Christ this twisted Bloomberg logic:
https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1227267729524215810?s=21

Honestly this type of amoral worldview is even more concerning to me than the fact that hes basically buying his way into the race.

Don't like Bloomberg, but how is he wrong? California belonged to Mexico, then there were a lot of Americans who moved in and decided they didn't want to be part of Mexico anymore. And they declared their independence, and then declared they wanted to be part of the United States. And the United States accepted and, after winning a war of aggression with Mexico, annexed California.

How is that in any sense better than what Russia did in Crimea? In fact the US action seems clearly worse in that Crimea definitely belonged to Russia before 1954 and was granted to Ukraine by the totalitarian central government of the Soviet Union.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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That prosecutor's name is remarkably similar to the Ukrainian President.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah I'm really sure the famously restrained Donald Trump would never have done all of this anyway!

Trump does what's in his best interest. His campaign would be hurt by openly abusing power. But now the Senate has come and officially decided that abuse of power is okay.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And what should you have done you ask? There are two bodies that can hold the President to account because they can remove him from office - the US Senate, and the next electoral college. You lack a majority in the Senate and you needed two thirds anyway. All you need is a majority in the electoral college and you had a real chance of getting it if you focused your efforts on it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And for clarity, let's look at what the Senate did. The Senate essentially agreed with Professor Dershowitz that only actual crimes or things of similar nature to actual crimes are impeachable. For the President to exercise his power to enforce the laws of the United States is certainly not a crime. It could be an abuse of power if he uses it to favor himself. But you Democrats just had the Senate rule that abuse of power is not impeachable and it is not a crime. You have empowered President Trump and he will take every last drop of power you give him.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

1. Have your goons do crimes for you
2. Pardon them
3. Repeat

Just like the founding fathers intended!

At least he's trying to bring the establishment/Democratic criminals to justice. We can talk about Republican criminals later but first we have to bring the Democratic ones to heel!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/eliehonig/status/1227282645853360130?s=21

If he wasnt impeached he would have done this months ago

Substantively I think this process is more in line with what the framers intended. The President calls the shots on prosecutions. The attorney general and his subordinates advise the President, but the President has the ultimate decision.

It should be this way, because the President is the only elected official there. In local elections if the district attorney is doing a bad job the voters can replace him. The unelected people of the DOJ cannot be replaced through election; only the President, who constitutionally is supposed to exercise control over them, can. So the President should take charge there.

Now if the President feels the DOJ is doing a good job and he wishes to approve their decisions without change, fine. But this President ran for office on a platform of draining the swamp, so for him to just accept what the DOJ does would be inconsistent with his campaign platform. He promised active management and that is what we expect.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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People, I warned you for months. You guys wanted to proceed with the impeachment anyway. Now the Court of Impeachment has ruled that the President is a little closer to being above the law and you don't like how he is using his new powers. Should have thought about that earlier!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

They just need to hold it together long enough to rally around beating Trump. They can shatter after, that's fine.

Yeah that's not happening against the great divider. Trump is the most divisive candidate since Lincoln, truly a master of sowing division.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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NH is a regular primary. Haven't seen any problems with the counting process within my memory.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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So if Bloomberg wins and spends 5 billion dollars running ads while Trump does nothing but post tweets for free and wins in a landslide, will Democrats finally admit that money doesn't really decide things in politics?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The problem is it was a good speech, and the Democrats have not come close to a real rebuttal. When you rip up the speech because you can't rebut it.....it looks bad.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I wonder if there is any person or small group of people besides Obama whose endorsement(s) would put a dent in the coordination problem in the moderate lane

...probably not

Trump.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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They're the DNC. They don't know that, or they don't care.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Yeah, the moment Bernie doesn't win on the first ballot the superdelegates come in and Bernie drops about 10 points.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Given the way the Democrats allocate delegates proportionally the analysis for Bloomberg would not really change even if he participated in the early states unless he somehow won them which he knew was not happening. No one is going to have a majority unless a lot of people drop out or stop getting votes very soon.

After this cycle, it may be time for the DNC to think about adopting winner take all.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Like seriously, if the lesson the Democratic Party drew from 2016 was they need to nominate a New York billionaire to win.........they are beyond saving and need to be dissolved.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

One really major advantage that Bloomberg has at the moment: obviously he has a huge ability to get his message out with his unlimited money, but another aspect of that messaging ability is that he never has to be confronted by anybody else (e.g. at a debate someone can counter you). Apparently thats why some of the other candidates actually wanted him to be in the debates.

Right now if youre hearing about Michael Bloomberg, youre pretty much hearing his message exactly as he wants you to hear it. Nobody else has that luxury.

That's not going to win him the election. If he gets nominated Trump is winning 400 electoral votes, book it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Please Lord, let me be in the timeline where I get to see Bernie Sanders debate Donald Trump.

I feel like I remember Trump offering to debate Bernie during the primary season in 2016. Am I remembering right? Are my memories from an alternate universe?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Just in case anyone needed to be reminded that Trump is a fucking psychopath:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1226922067523768320?s=21

No, we need slow trials and multiple rounds of appeals to ensure that no one is put to death after a witch hunt. We need rules of procedure that apply very strictly to the prosecution, so if they don't put their charges together just right, they don't get to call witnesses and the case gets dismissed.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Like, take Obamacare. The left should have started by demanding socialized healthcare. Then compromised down to what they really wanted. Not opened with what they wanted and compromised down to disaster.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Trump believes in opening with an outrageous demand. It can be even higher than what he actually wants.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And honestly, this is a point that the left should be expounding constantly on. Until SmartMuffin posted that chart I honestly didn't know that we had cut emissions in the US. Because the last time I had looked at a chart of CO2 emissions against GDP growth was in 2009ish and well.....through 2009 they had like a 90% correlation.

If people know that we can cut emissions without killing the economy, they'll be willing to vote for policies to cut emissions! The left should be pounding and pounding on this. I think people don't know, because the left always talks about how global emissions are rising. Telling people things are hopeless is not a good way to win support.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

if you stopped being obsessed with "owning the left" and thought about what you're saying for more than 1 second, perhaps you would realize that emissions being at the level they were in '92 is still really bad, as SEP already pointed out.

you're acting like the problem is solved now. it isn't.

No, it means we've moved from "there's no solution" to "there is a solution, that will take time." That's a big step. The important thing is that emission levels have been declining - because that means they can continue to decline.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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SmartMuffin posted...

I mean.....it's entirely possible for a medicine to be worse than the disease.

Not really, if the disease is both terminal and rapidly progressing.

And in this case it clearly isn't. The worst that anybody has ever even tried to claim about fracking is that it results in minor earthquakes and minor water pollution.... exclusively in remote, low-population areas where nobody actually lives (and the people who do actually live there overwhelmingly like fracking and probably voted for Trump, so who even cares if they get sick?)

Now you're arguing that this specific medicine is less bad than the disease. But it's easy to think of solutions that are worse. The Mars orbit one was one. Another is global thermonuclear war.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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SmartMuffin posted...

Left: We have to take drastic action to save the Earth from climate change! The world is literally on fire! We need a solution.

Oil & gas industry: K, here's your solution.

Left: Not like that.

I mean.....it's entirely possible for a medicine to be worse than the disease. We could move the Earth to the orbit of Mars. We could release every last bit of carbon locked in fossil fuels into the atmosphere after that and we'd still struggle to keep life going at the equator.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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SmartMuffin posted...

Wasn't CO2 supposed to literally result in the extinction of all life on Earth?

No.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The US cutting CO2 emissions while growing its economy proves that it is possible. China and India will now know that it is doable if they want to.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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It's really good that we've cut things down so far below the peak in 2007. That means cuts are possible!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1226583703146713089

Some day we're going to find out what leverage Trump had over Lindsey Graham that made him so thoroughly sell his soul

It's Lindsey Graham. I'm not sure leverage is necessary.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1226577362562752513?s=20

uhhhh

Insulting everyone worked for Trump. I guess Biden is copying that now that his poll numbers are falling.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Oh, I lived in Nashua for like 9 years. But I don't get the pun.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Who wins in New Hampshire? Im Nashua.

You live in Nashua?

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