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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/13/20 12:18:53 PM
#48
SPCE is +5% today and may be getting ready to moon. Apparently this stock has a 77% short interest / float, meaning if it does go up the short squeeze may be epic.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/13/20 2:14:50 AM
#28
Dow futures +227 now.

I'm watching a rerun of the 2010 US Open (golf), and there are a lot of Men's Wearhouse commercials featuring George Zimmer with the classic line, "You're going to like the way you look. I guarantee it." I almost thought TLRD was running ads before realizing this was from 10 years ago.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/12/20 7:38:28 PM
#24
Moonroof posted...
There has been an obscene amount of bad news this weekend. From Floridas daily record-high COVID count to earnings reports expected to be the worst of all-time. Despite all this, the market is currently up half a percent. We have a long ways to go until open tomorrow, but Id be pleasantly shocked if it sticks.

Expected and expected. Green Monday here we come!

(11 times is a trend, let's make it 12).

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 7:43:56 PM
#499
Moonroof posted...
Im heavily confused by what youre trying to say. A person shouldnt hold a stock that they expect to go up, and instead should sell it everyday it yields gains and then buy back into it?

No they should just hold it. They should not constantly be jumping in and out.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 7:25:00 PM
#496
I don't know if it's good that you held, that depends on how the stocks do on Monday. I'm just saying that it's probably better not to focus on realized gains/losses, as if gains were not real until they are realized (yes, English is wrong on this regard!).

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 7:13:55 PM
#494
Or, if you want to spend the money. USD is accepted everywhere but most places don't take shares of stock for payment.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 7:11:42 PM
#493
Moonroof posted...
But if it goes up 1% on Monday, isnt that 1% bigger when using my lesser starting value than the higher value it closed at today?

Yes, but you now have more money invested because your gains are already invested in the stock as well. Here's an example with simple numbers.

I use $100 to buy 10 shares of stock A on day 1. On day 2, stock A rises 100%. On day 3, stock A rises another 10%. Supposing I stay invested in stock A:

My balance after day 2: $200 (10 shares of A)
My balance after day 3: $220 (10 shares of A)

Supposing I sell half my shares on day 2:

Balance after day 2: $200 (5 shares of A + $100 cash)
Balance after day 3: $210 (5 shares of A + $100 cash)

Now either way, I'm going to see that stock A rose 10% on day 3......but if I take out half my position and put it in cash, then my portfolio only gains 5%, because I was 50% invested in an asset that produced a gain of 0% - cash.

Of course, if I used to $100 I got from selling the 5 shares to buy something else, and that thing went up 10% on day 3, I'd end up with the same amount as before - $220. That means that actually closing the position doesn't make any difference, except for taxes.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 6:49:16 PM
#491
Moonroof posted...
I didnt articulate that correctly. I meant that I bought those two earlier today / yesterday, and had I sold I wouldve made $2k total. But I decided to keep holding.

I mean you already made the money. It doesn't matter whether you sold or not. You could have sold, so you made the money. Your gain just isn't taxable yet.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 6:18:18 PM
#489
Moonroof posted...
PRU and BAC wouldve made me about $1k each today but I decided to hold. Im hoping that the Financial stocks are going to start turning around and that everyone is tired of negative corona news.

That's probably not the right way of looking at things. Money is made when the price of the stock goes up. Money is lost when it goes down. Actually closing the position only matters for tax purposes (and again, since you only get taxed at all when you close the position and you get penalized for closing it in less than one year, it's generally better to keep it open).

Put it this way - if you had to hold a position for 30 years, would you put it in (a) some blend of stocks/funds or (b) the US dollar? You'd be crazy to choose (b) right? The last 30 years, that strategy would have lost 50% of value from inflation, and that was a period of low inflation. Meanwhile, an S&P 500 index fund is up some gigantic amount. So there should be no desire to rapidly return to the dollar. You do better by keeping more assets in stocks for longer percentages of the time. Basically only sell to buy another stock/investment or if you think there's an imminent downturn approaching.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 3:16:26 PM
#480
It feels like the first day in a long time where the Dow and S&P have beat the Nasdaq.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 11:58:57 AM
#471
I sold a little CAR and DAL and bought some SPCE. Unfortunately it literally went up more than 1% from when I started placing the buy order and when it was executed. Oh well.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/10/20 11:37:06 AM
#469
I think I'm going to get in on SPCE anyway. Usually a stock that pops like that does out as part of a bigger move, not just a one-day event. I need some diversification away from travel/reopening anyway so that not everything moves together.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/09/20 11:29:34 PM
#455
I hope we're not headed toward corpocracy where a handful of corporations control the country.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/09/20 8:31:29 PM
#80
Mr Lasastryke posted...
i maintain that still counts as praise, though. don't recall trump ever saying "as much as i like obama, obamacare was bad," so obviously he holds reagan in higher regard than someone like obama.

Yes, he appears to hold Reagan in higher regard than Obama. But that's sort of part and parcel of being a Republican.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/09/20 8:10:30 PM
#78
Mr Lasastryke posted...
https://www.foxnews.com/media/president-trump-reagan-was-not-good-on-trade

granted, he's praising reagan here to give context of a criticism of reagan, but he's still saying "as much as i like reagan..."!

He's criticizing Reagan. He says he wasn't good on trade.

He was also daring enough to criticize GWB at a Republican debate, saying that the Iraq war was a disaster.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/09/20 6:46:25 PM
#444
Oh you know what that's probably a big reason the Chinese stock market is up. Everyone is too afraid of the virus to go to Macau anymore. Gambling revenue was down like 95% or something year-over-year in June and that's with the casinos all open. They're using the stock market as a substitute for gambling.

And they love gambling, Macau used to have 6x the gambling revenue of Las Vegas. Even after the corruption crackdown probably eliminated most of the money laundering, it was still running at 3x Vegas. This from a country that still has a lot less total money than the US.

I want to buy some long term puts on casinos. People are going to realize that betting on penny stocks or options gives you far better odds than you'll get at any casino. Imagine paying a 1% commission on every trade you make, win or lose. Who'd do such a thing when you don't have to!

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/09/20 12:32:32 PM
#433
The market is so choppy this week. A big green day followed by a big red day followed by a big green day followed by a big red day.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/08/20 9:52:17 PM
#56
Also, I don't remember Trump praising Reagan much (I actually can't remember him doing it). The only Presidents I can recall him saying good things about are himself, Lincoln, and the founding fathers. His usual thing is to portray himself as Lincoln's successor, and remember that Lincoln was out of vogue in the GOP for a long time before Trump due to their policies going out of alignment with his.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/08/20 9:49:28 PM
#54
Mr Lasastryke posted...
well, i was responding to the "he doesn't even pretend to believe it" part. pretty sure he at least SOMETIMES pretends to believe it (given that he has indeed taken both sides on 90% of the issues). no idea what he actually thinks about trickle down economics.

He can think Reagan was a great president without agreeing with all of his policies. I would say his statements that are consistent with the trickle down theory are vanishingly rare and his statements that are inconsistent with it are too numerous to count. He constantly talks as if the government, and specifically, the President, is responsible for economic growth or decline. That's a command economy consistent with a Communist state; it's the complete antithesis of laissez-faire trickle down economics.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/08/20 8:34:54 PM
#47
Mr Lasastryke posted...
trump also believes in trickle down economics

He does not believe it. He doesn't even pretend to believe it. His deal is to take from the upper middle class and redistribute that wealth 80% to the rich and 20% to the lower middle class. And you know what? That deal is vastly better than anything the Democrats are offering. Because they aren't offering any wealth redistribution at all.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/08/20 8:30:37 PM
#45
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
My parents views are especially weird. Theyre both working class and raised me in INDIANA, a Nurse and HVAC, and my mom moved to Wyoming and my dad owns his own business.

Like just knowing those things youd think theyd be Republican af, my dads not particularly outspoken politically, but ever since W he has always told me Republicans are the party for stupid racists, while my mom is a textbook woke Lib lol, she was one of those fabled *shudder* Mayor Pete supporters.

Your dad understands the old Republican Party under Bush extremely well. But if they were working class at the time, it's not surprising they didn't buy the BS about trickle down economics.

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TopicSo my parents have become awful people as they age. That's fun.
red sox 777
07/08/20 7:54:50 PM
#22
If you want to actually influence someone, you need to first gain their trust so that when you tell them your opinion, they will think they should take it seriously.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 6:20:37 PM
#420
Speaking of ER, the Delta ER is next week. I'm debating whether I should hold through it or not. I guess I probably will because everyone already knows the results are going to be really bad. If it's only very bad, as opposed to catastrophically bad, the stock should moon.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 6:03:12 PM
#418
Lopen posted...
Also I will say when cheap stocks go to the moon it tends to happen after a good day from what I've noticed the past few months.

So while you can maximize profits waiting for something to bottom out I would say it's kinda risky if you have faith in the stock. I'm fine with it. I've only got $400 on it anyway.

My sense is that once the moonshot occurs, they fall back a long way (like 50-80%+ of gains). LK actually briefly gave up 100% of gains from its bottom. So the trouble with getting in once the moon pattern is already showing is that if you don't time the exit well you end up with little profit or even a loss.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 5:00:02 PM
#413
Oh, and LEVI. Down 8% today on that awful earnings report, but people are still going to need clothes in the future. One or two bad quarters should now be priced in.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 4:54:48 PM
#412
Stocks I'm looking at buying:

EB - Eventbrite - Currently trading at about 40% of pre-coronavirus levels. There should be a near total lack of revenue right now with no events going on, but the company has a strong balance sheet with more assets than debts, so survival shouldn't be a problem. Events will come back and even if we lose a whole year of events it shouldn't be anything close to a 60% decline in the value of the company.

CNK - Cinemark - Also trading at about 40% of pre-virus levels. Unfortunately, it already rose more than 6% today. That said, I'm not sure if theaters have actually found the bottom yet; I don't see the business coming back for a while since watching movies in a theater is not really an essential need, and people might decide they don't actually need it even after this virus stuff ends. That's in contrast to air travel, which I see as an absolutely essential need, something people just can't go without.

WH - Wyndham Resorts - Currently trading at about 71% of pre-virus levels. Anecdotal evidence is that bookings for at least one of their hotel brands is strong (family tried to book something and they were sold out).

UHR - Swatch Group - Currently at about 70% of pre-virus levels. This is the biggest Swiss watchmaking company - includes Swatch, Omega, Tissot, Breguet, Longines, etc. I don't see why the virus should have much of a long-term impact on high end watches.

SPCE - Virgin Galactic - Because spaceflight is cool. I don't know if the price has anything to do with normal metrics like profit and revenue, but who cares? To the moon (literally).


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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 3:16:58 PM
#401
Cruise ships, theaters, and car rental are all up big today. Airlines coming up next!

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 2:55:16 PM
#393
CAR with another +8% day. This stock is such a joy to own.

I just checked and at this point CAR accounts for 161% of my profits since March. That is, I've lost money across everything else I've traded.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 1:39:44 PM
#392
The new ticker symbol is LKNCY.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/08/20 12:59:07 PM
#389
Yeah, I regret not jumping back in on LK at $1.40. My main worry was that I wasn't sure if it was going to trade OTC or if it was just going to be completely delisted from US exchanges.

I do think there's a lot of value in this company long-term, I'm just afraid that even if the business thrives, shareholders will never be rewarded for it. I'm reading articles that say that the chairman replaced himself and the independent directors with some lackeys, so, essentially, the chairman has regained full control. If they just never declare a dividend and funnel off profits to companies controlled by the chairman in the future, it's possible that the company does great and shareholders still lose.

It might be worth taking a shot at it anyway but it's a lot less attractive now at $3.70 instead of $1.40.

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TopicShould natural persons have the same rights that corporations do?
red sox 777
07/07/20 5:26:02 PM
#1
Should natural persons have the same rights that corporations do?



The Supreme Court has definitively established that corporations are people, but what about natural persons? Should we have the same rights as corporations?

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 4:57:28 PM
#380
Moonroof posted...
So Id make $11.85 because thats what I put in there? That doesnt make sense or else is just put like $1,000,000?

No one will buy the put if you offer to sell for $1,000,000. I don't think anyone will pay $11.85 for that put either. Personally, I wouldn't offer more than 1 cent for the $1 put. You gotta look at the current bid/ask to see what's a reasonable amount.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 4:47:54 PM
#378
Oh I think that's what you are limiting where you enter a limit order. Like, whatever amount you put in there is the lowest premium you are willing to accept.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 4:37:50 PM
#376
The maximum gain is the premium you're collecting.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 4:27:01 PM
#374
Moonroof posted...
So instead of $1, do $11 because thats closer to the value of the stock. And what is the difference here of $1 versus $11?

With the $11 put, if the stock price goes below $11 it can get exercised, meaning, you buy the stock for $11 even though it is now trading for less than $11. With the $1 put, the put will not be exercised unless the stock falls below $1. Since the probability of AAL falling below $1 by the close of business on Friday is vanishingly low, the premium you stand to make from betting against it is correspondingly microscopic.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 4:08:01 PM
#370
I suppose it's hard to go broke selling puts in profitable companies. Let's just hope Harry doesn't end up selling a lot of puts in a company that goes bankrupt or worse, selling calls in Tesla last week.

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TopicWhat form of government is best?
red sox 777
07/07/20 2:13:41 PM
#1
What form of government is best?










What's the best form of government?

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 12:25:47 PM
#358
The VIX was right again. Yesterday we had the rare event that the market was up and the VIX was up. Today the market fell. I'm kicking myself for not checking the VIX during the last hour yesterday and selling everything. Could have bought back today at a lower price on 4 out of 5 stocks.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 1:52:00 AM
#346
The one thing that sticks out to me as someone who doesn't trade options and knows very little about BBBY is that the spread between the bid and ask on that looks quite large. Is a 20% gap between the bid and ask a normal thing for a put spread like this?

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/07/20 1:38:48 AM
#345
So do I have this right- if BBBY goes above $12.50, both puts expire worthless and you lose the net premium of $110. If BBBY stays below $11, the put you bought is worth $150 more than the put you sold, so you make $150 - $110 = $40. If BBBY is between $11 and $12.50, your profits linearly decline from $40 at $11 to a loss of $110 at $12.50. The breakeven point is $11.40.

I have no idea really if that's a good trade. For a retailer with a stock price around $11, I don't think the earnings report would have to be very good for the stock to moon.


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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 10:50:28 PM
#342
Is there a graph of how much money you make/lose at each price point of the underlying stock?

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 9:30:23 PM
#335
This is where opportunity comes from. If people weren't afraid of the virus sticking around, the airlines would already be trading much higher and this opportunity for profit wouldn't exist. Other people's fear = your opportunity.

I do think you should consider diversifying your airline holdings to include some of the other airlines. AAL's interest rate on its debt is approaching credit card levels.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 8:19:06 PM
#330
TSA numbers for the July 4 weekend (and week over week percentage change):

July 2 (Thursday): 764,761 (+22.63%)
July 3 (Friday): 718,988 (+13.59%)
July 4 (Saturday): 466,669 (-14.58%)
July 5 (Sunday): 732,123 (+15.51%)

Those are the highest numbers since March. I think with the airlines, realistically they are either going up (if there is no bankruptcy) or down (if they go bankrupt). It's hard for them to stay at current levels.

We are lucky to have a President and Congress who themselves fly every week, and therefore see flying as an absolutely essential basic need. Although AAL is probably the weakest airline and sometimes the government lets the weakest company in the group fail to try to encourage some level of fiscal prudence in the future. They let Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers fail, and they only saved GM after all the shareholders got wiped out.

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 5:02:52 PM
#321
I hope this doesn't come off as harsh but I am sort of mystified by your AAL trade. AAL fell below $11/share on March 19. It rose above $11/share on June 1. In the interim, it traded as high as $15 and as low as $9 but spent most of the time under $11. The point is, without needing much luck in timing at all, you had 2 and a half months to buy AAL below $11, in which case you would have a 15%+ profit now. If you had bought it at $9 you'd have more than 40% profit but that would have required some significantly good luck in timing the bottom.

AAL then ran from $11 to $20 in literally 5 trading days the first week of June on zero industry-specific news and then you bought in. What's the logic for not buying at $11 and then buying at $18?

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TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 4:15:34 PM
#316
This time the market (including travel stocks) came back strongly in the afternoon. Good to see a strong green day end strongly in the green.

Although, I just checked and VIX also ended up slightly today. Welp. Might be time to sell everything.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty
red sox 777
07/06/20 4:07:14 PM
#455
Mr Lasastryke posted...
a job provides more than just money, though. there's also factors like social interaction/having something to do/pride/etc.

i could be wrong but i find it hard to believe that everyone who lost their job is like "well as long as i get (more) money i don't give a crap."

Yeah, but under the scenario of herd immunity in 60 days, within 120 days the jobs will almost all come back. We were at a 50-year low for unemployment before this. Trump is going to brag and brag and brag about how he brought the jobs back in only 6 months while it took Obama 8 years and even after that unemployment still wasn't as low.

What's dangerous for Trump is the scenario where in 120 days the jobs aren't back because the virus is still a threat. Basically Trump placed a very big bet on the economy recovering by November.


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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty
red sox 777
07/06/20 3:31:44 PM
#450
Mr Lasastryke posted...
even if that's the case, i wasn't just talking about the amount of cases/deaths. the economy has been wrecked pretty badly and people aren't easily going to forgive trump for this.

The stock market says otherwise. Personally, with the lockdowns my spending is way down and as a result my monthly savings is way up and this is the case for a lot of people. Many people who lost their jobs are still making more money than they were before thanks to the $600/week bonus, and that's before even factoring in the savings from lower expenses.

Now, Trump does have a weakness here in that he is sometimes blind to the fact that the many people don't have investments and are living paycheck to paycheck (or unemployment check to unemployment check). But overall, he's done a great job mitigating the economic effects of this pandemic and the big delta between US and European stock markets shows that. People aren't going to blame him for an economic decline that was clearly caused by the virus and happened everywhere around the world. If we do get to herd immunity in 2 months, then in 4 months unemployment will be way way down from here and the stock market will be way way up, probably at all-time highs. If that isn't the case in Europe, Trump is going to be nonstop crowing about it during the final stretch of the campaign in October.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty
red sox 777
07/06/20 2:36:09 PM
#435
Biden didn't generate enthusiasm. People just really really didn't want Bernie.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicPolitics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty
red sox 777
07/06/20 2:03:45 PM
#429
Actually, I guess it would have been even better if exactly 270 Trump electors voted for Bernie and they were joined by 0 Democratic electors. That would completely and utterly expose the Democratic Party for the centrist, corporatist, pro-affluence frauds they are.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicStock Topic 7
red sox 777
07/06/20 1:54:18 PM
#311
I'm looking to get in on CNK - Cinemark. Might be time to get in on theaters, and it seems the bankruptcy risk is lower than AMC. If AMC does go bankrupt it should boost Cinemark when the audiences come back.

The trouble is, I don't really want to sell anything I have right now. The plan was to sell some of my DAL shares once it went up a bit since at 38% of my portfolio, it's probably too much invested in a single stock, but I don't really want to sell any shares at $28.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
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