Lurker > red sox 777

He violated the fundamental parliamentary rule against impugning the honor of another member. Weak technicality applied on Pelosi's part. Should have demanded a retraction, on pain of ejection from the house for the day. I'd always liked him, but lost some respect for him from that speech.

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StartTheMachine posted...

personal tangent incoming because I need to vent

I have a good friend who is basically a reverse Corrik. I'm pretty sure his fiancee has indoctrinated him into the cult of believers that democracy is being overthrown if Trump doesn't stay president.

Dude has always been relatively apolitical but I would say left-leaning on most issues except guns, because he is a gun enthusiast. Simultaneously, he is a total hippie type with anti-authoritarian and conspiratorial tendencies that I think were ripe to grow into what they have now.

I haven't posted on social media in years, so the slow transformation completely passed me by. He talked to me on messenger out of the blue a couple weeks ago saying we should catch up, and I randomly clicked on his profile to which I was greeted by a bunch of anti-vaxxer bullshit, calling the vaccines "lethal injections" and utter nonsense like that. Hard recoil on my part, especially as someone whose first job post-college was as a science writer at ORNL, the largest scientific national lab in the U.S.

Since then, I've sort of slowly monitored his FB posts out of curiosity, worried about what insanity he's been ingesting from conspiratorial and far right websites. Sure enough, he posted an OAN video, and today he seemed to be framing this entire shitshow as a heroic act on behalf of the Trump supporters, though to be totally fair, he never explicitly says this, so I don't quite know how deep down the rabbit hole he is.

We give a lot of shit to Corrik and Ulti here, but they're at least in reality when it comes to the events that are transpiring right now. And considering that poll that shows about half of Republicans are in support of what happened today, Board 8 is lucky for that.

Never gave a shit about politics interfering with friendships, but cults are another story. I don't know. Honestly have no idea if I'll even say anything about it next time I talk to or hang out with him.

I likely won't. If he brings stuff up though, I will obviously push the fuck back and open that can of worms. Ultimately, I just feel bad for him and am worried what the future might look for him if he continues down the path of radicalization.

I've also gradually basically stopped using social media over the past few years. I'm thinking more and more that social media is responsible for a lot of our problems, and the reason is that social media places people into echo chambers by sorting people with others who think similarly. And it's a feedback loop that gets worse and worse and worse.

I've said for years that Ulti and Corrik are the most swingy voters on this board, and I think that's absolutely true.

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Okay, so Republicans: do you want a world in which control of both houses of Congress lets you override the electoral college? Is it that you think Republicans will have a permanent advantage in the Senate?

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Why is this 15 year old child not being asked to wear a mask?

I don't think they can force a member of Congress to do so.

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The Senate didn't bother doing additional debate, just skipped straight to a vote on PA. I think Trump has cratered his 2024 chances today. If he wants to be spiteful he can probably run third party and take down the GOP with him.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Then Trump is already pardoned. <_<

Seriously he should try to claim that

Pardons only work for crimes committed prior to the pardon. But yes, Trump could issue a blanket pardon for everyone involved today. There's a significant chance that would get him impeached and removed from office.

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Jakyl25 posted...

He legitimately believes Congress can overturn these votes though, and this protest was meant to intimidate them to do it.

His end game has no actual basis in reality, but he has never shown any knowledge of how government ACTUALLY works

This is what happened in England in 1648 and France in 1793. Thankfully it didn't turn out that way today. Those escape passages out of Congress may have saved our democracy today.

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Wondering if they will reconvene Congress in a different location to finish the joint session. They don't have to meet at the capitol.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1346898433689399297?s=21

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1346899437520621568?s=21

Jesus fucking Christ

Those are confederate battle flags. After 156 years, it looks like the CSA army has reached the US capitol.

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/eggerdc/status/1346884987715465219?s=21

So much for the tolerant right

This is what the radical left did in France in 1793 (the mob succeeded in arresting enough moderate members of the National Assembly to gain a majority). Our founding fathers would be appalled by this attempt.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Luckily for me, the wording of the market is basically Pence will announce the winner, so if he just merely abstains from actually saying Joe Biden will be the next President Im hoping thats a win.

This is a terrible bet.

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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think this mattered really. Moderates don't change their mind - just like everyone else. Everyone who voted in both Senate races voted the same way each time. Dems won because they did outreach to expand their voting base while Trump suppressed his own by claiming it was rigged from the start.

This is a really negative and dangerous viewpoint for the health of our democracy but it does appear to have carried the day tonight based on the striking closeness of the 3 races (these two plus Trump/Biden). I think this viewpoint has been largely contradicted by election results over the past few years but tonight is a win for it.

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Crescent-Moon posted...

Ossoff just won an update 3,341 to 62. That's insane.

98%? You just know that's going to be cited as evidence of fraud. But yeah, crazy updates happen when you are starting at a 90%+ baseline.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/north-korea-congress-kim-jong-un-economic-plan-failure-mistake-biden

In other news, Kim Jong Un has admitted that his economic five year plan was an abject failure.

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Crescent-Moon posted...

Both Republicans have effectively announced they will fight the results as long as possible.

Here we go!

They lost by a big margin, probably at least 40k for Purdue and much more for Loeffler. Way beyond recount level and way beyond Biden's margin.

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I guess several Dem senators have said that they won't pack the court. But still, SCOTUS may feel some pressure these two years not to push very far at the risk of upsetting them. Much like how SCOTUS buckled under pressure to FDR.

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I think Ossoff is going to win by more than 1%.

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Hbthebattle posted...

I'm relatively sure that's just a 1984 quote

The last sentence is a quote, or a paraphrase. The rest is original.

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redrocket posted...

Can we do a thought experiment? What does despotic rule by the Democratic Party look like?

The gradual erosion and ultimate elimination of freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of association. Mass censorship ending in a state monopoly on the press. The outsourcing of all policy decisions from elected officials to an unelected group of "experts." The ultimate elimination of meaningful elections when all power has been outsourced to said expert committee. The gradual reduction of the committee to one person. Totalitarian dictatorship by that person. A boot stamping in a human face, forever.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Say it with me.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnel

I don't know that he won't retire after seeing this.

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redrocket posted...

?

They are all that stand between us and despotic rule by the Democratic Party.

Edit: We can add Mark Kelly to that list.

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To Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King: Save us. Please.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Cohn predicting the Dekalb votes could potentially go up to 90% Ossof based on their specific voting pool.

You mean the remaining batch will run at 90%? Yeah, that's about what I'd expect based on November as they are probably mostly mail votes.

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There was a gain for Purdue, back to a bit under 4k. Problem is there's still tens of thousands of votes left in Dekalb.

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Warnock/Loeffler could have been called a while ago. The other one can be called too now.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Still cant do it until after the 20th, but after that very high

You think they'll abolish the filibuster over this?

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TheRock1525 posted...

Any state that gives Susan Collins a runaway victory while at the same time electing a Democratic President is exceptionally shitty.

Florida being Florida is expected. Alabama being Alabama is expected.

This is really shortsighted, but in any case, she probably only had a runaway victory because of the ranked choice voting system. She won over 50% so we won't know, but probably most of the third party votes had the Dem ranked above her.

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Hearing on news that we aren't expected to get many more votes tonight, that it'll probably come tomorrow. Well, praise to Georgia for counting vastly faster than in November this time.

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There's the big drop from Dekalb, which is now at 92% in. Purdue maintains a lead of.....3k. Warnock now in the lead.

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It's not looking good for Purdue in Dekalb based on the surrounding counties, which are near completion: Fulton +4.4 vs. November for Ossoff, Gwinnett +3.8%, Clayton +6%.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

This is an incredibly disengenuous analogy.

I'm not sure what you mean.

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The Needle had Trump where Ossoff is around now too.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Also why didnt they cheat in 2016? Or 2014? Or 2010?

According to Rudy they cheat every year, but the cheating isn't unlimited. They run up against obstacles like exceeding the total amount of registered voters in an area.

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Purdue's lead over 100k now, at 114k with that last update from Floyd. Percentage lead up to 3%. 87% in, so Ossoff needs to win approximately 60/40 with the remaining votes to tie assuming the 87% is accurate. Not sure if Loeffler is going to get to 100k, although she is finally over 51%.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Lol they're hitting Wasserman with the flag now?

This is why those censorship flags are ridiculous.

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Purdue now over 49%.

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Vote Trump 2024

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Purdue making strides now. Loeffler too, but because she's behind by more, the Needle spread between them is up to 8 points.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The bet isnt that Pence will overrule anything, its that he will recognize the electors and declare the winner.

Theres zero chance he does that, I bet hell walk out and make Grassley do it.

Why is there zero chance he will do that? Has he said he wouldn't?

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

You hop on that Pence No train yet?

Seems like free money at this point.

How is it free money? It seems overwhelmingly likely the House at least and probably the Senate will vote down the objections. Then Pence has no discretion to overrule them.

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Jakyl25 posted...

All the objections will take up a lot of time because they must be formally addressed individually so who knows

If they want to go nuclear and object to all the electoral votes it can take at least 102 hours.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1346622218445479936?s=21

Based on how x-stats work and how well they held up in Pennsylvania across vote types, if there is a change from the November Purdue +2 result we would expect to see a bigger rise in the center of that graph and a smaller one at the ends. Though since it's a going to be a very small change it may be hard to see the curve.

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The Needle understands probabilities. 53% is a toss up. 85% is an advantage but nowhere near insurmountable.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

Yeah, and thats messed up, my guy. That should be changed!

Agreed.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Wait why am I even following the needle after what the needle did in November lol.

Were legit going to have to suffer through unironic stop the counts all over again tonight aren't we?

The Needle was very good in November, no? I don't think it got beyond 85% or so for Trump in Georgia and moved toward Biden long before Biden started cutting votes.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

Are they actually banning people for agreeing with the phrase? Thats horrendous. Policing in the US did not come out of the Peelite ideal of a police force (which, among other things, mandates that police be unarmed) like it did in other countries (this is why Northern Europe has unarmed police). It came out of, among other things, enforcing slavery. Which it still does via prison labour. How the hell is that still legal over there by the way?

The system itself is bad.

It was expressly written into the 13th Amendment that slavery is legal as a punishment.

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Not sure how much they want to play this up, but they could make a real filibuster out of it. 2 hours of debate for 50 states plus DC = 102 hours of debate. If they work 8 hours a day that's 13 days, plus all the time needed for the Senate to walk over to its chamber and back to the House, and to keep on reconvening the joint session. If they don't work on weekends, under that schedule, they won't finish by January 20 and I guess Pelosi becomes president.

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The longer you are willing to hold, and the bigger of a decline you are willing to stomach, the more flexibility you have in picking entry points.

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Lincoln did it in 1864 and won. I think that's the last time it's been tried by a major party.

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Also, while it's often maligned, I'm increasingly thinking that catching a falling knife is a good strategy as long as you've decided that there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. Where you want to buy is when other people are panic selling. Their loss is your gain.

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