Lurker > red sox 777

Biden is telling people who believe in QAnon to use mental health resources they have under Obamacare.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm definitely not going to discount your opinion, Corrik, as you actually live in a swing state and talk with swing voters, but that's not what I'm seeing lately.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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KamikazePotato posted...

Why is that uh oh

Because it means Trump is going to win.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I didn't realize you could buy 0.02 of a share. If that's the case I'm considering buying tiny fractional shares of GNUS, LK, NKLA, CHK, JCP, HTZ, WLL, etc. so I can brag at dinner parties about how my portfolio is mostly meme stocks and bankrupt companies and I still made a great return.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The Dow turned green for the day. What happened? Did Congress finally reach an agreement on the stimulus?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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If you want to get value out of Tesla I'd wait for $100. But if you want to ride the bubble, probably now's a good time to get in.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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SPCE has gone from my 3rd biggest gain to my 2nd biggest loss. I think we're down 40% in a month or so.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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My travel stocks are back in the green for today. Might be too late to get into CNK or NCLH now, but I guess I still have major doubts about the long-term success of those industries.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Stocks go up and stocks go down. If you hold stocks, when they go up you make money and when they go down you lose money. Stocks go up more than they go down, so on average you make some money. But if you change the rewards so that when stocks go up you only make half as much and when they go down you only lose half as much, then in the long run, your total gain will be....half as much. That's what happens when you allocate half as much money to stocks vs. cash.

But hedging with deep negative EV stuff like bearish levered ETFs is more like limiting your gains to 10% of what they would be if you just held stocks, while limiting your losses to 50%. In that case you lose money on average.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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You can get better protection by selling your stocks. But if you expect the stocks to go up, it's going to be hard to make any money as long as you also hold SQQQ because SQQQ is going to be a huge drain.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Nanis23 posted...

It's for today only

What's special about today? SQQQ is an awful bet unless you have very high confidence Nasdaq is falling tomorrow. And if you were confident about that, then you shouldn't be holding those stocks. This is betting against yourself and paying a high fee for it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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McCain sucked because he was a centrist.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Nanis23 posted...

I dunno, it's easier listening to the bears during a market crash, but harder to listen to bulls during a rally
Maybe it's my perspective as being a mostly negative person and it's biting me in the ass
Even after NASDAQ was 10% up from the bottom, analysts were all "this is just a dead cat bounce and it's will fall down and harder"
And I was like..yeah they are probably right
And I waited
And waited
And waited
And NASDAQ kept going up

So everytime I said "I will buy the dip"
And a dip doesn't happen
And when there is a small dip, I get in with like..10% of the cash? sometimes less, and say "if there is another dip tomorrow, I will add more money"
And then the next day NASDAQ goes +4% and I am like..wow yay me I got $100, now I need to make $9900 more (ok not really the exact number but you know)

Pre stock market crash everything went perfectly, damn it

Yeah just don't listen to people. Or be a contrarian. Buy when everyone's panic selling. Sell when your Uber driver is recommending meme stocks to you. There is a logic to it - if you are listening to people, what is your advantage over them? You don't have any, right? Now if the advice you are listening to is limited to a small group of people - then you could still have an advantage over the market. But if the advice is being blasted from the rooftops on CNBC.....what advantage do you have?

But if you have to listen to people, don't listen to permabears like Zerohedge. There's probably no group of people that's more consistently wrong.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Nanis23 posted...

Yes
Been using like 20% of it only

Then it seems like the problem is primarily that you have a low tolerance for risk. And that your risk tolerance goes up as stocks go up, causing you to miss out on a lot of the rally and buy more at the top.

If you had a financial advisor invest for you, unless you are a sick retiree on your deathbed who doesn't expect to make it beyond the next year, they would not put anything close to 80% of funds in cash. To make money, you really need a bigger allocation to stocks, but of course then there'll be greater risk.


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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I have been playing it super safe and missed most of the huge gains

So it may be helpful to expand on what this means. Have you been keeping most of your portfolio in cash on most days?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Also, don't beat yourself up for days like today. They happen. They are unavoidable, or at least, the only way to avoid them is to also miss out on gains.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I think you'd feel better and probably get better results if you switched to investing for the long term. Don't try to time things, just buy companies that you would be happy owning shares of even if the market price doesn't move in your favor immediately.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Corrik you literally said that slaves shouldn't escape their masters because it was against the law then.

I don't think he said that. I think he said the law could not apply to slaves because it expressly did not give them the rights of persons - so how could they break the law?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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banananor posted...

> It's not like the Democrats have done much more for them on economic issues than the Republicans have for the last few decades

Health care and social security don't count? The aca in particular is recent and huge and broken down along party lines

Neither of those things actually help working class people.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I won't speak for everyone in this topic as I don't always agree with them, but for my take in general Trump is acting like a fascist and if you're OK with that and don't see the clear way that this is true you are blind.

Both sides scare me, but the Democrats scare me more.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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colliding posted...

the question here is health care. do you get health care in either option?

living at 20,000/year is extremely easy, as someone who did it for years as a graduate student. i mean you can't have a kid ever, but 30,000 isn't much better in that case.

The job qualifies you for health insurance. The UBI payment doesn't, but you may qualify for free/discounted health insurance based on your low income.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The market was up this morning then plunged hard over the last hour and a half. Dow fell like 800 points peak to trough.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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MawiIe posted...

Can I volunteer/work on personal projects/enroll in college?

if so I would do it for even 5 dollars an hour.

Yes, you can volunteer or work on personal projects. As for enrolling in college, sure, but you would have to find a way to pay for it.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm surprised it's this much of a landslide. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough - if you accept the $10/hour for not working, you have to not work. Like, you can't take another job.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Either way, you'll be paid for a total of 2000 hours per year.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I think the uncertainty in Nates model is too high this year (especially if you compare to 2016, where Clinton was in an objectively worse position but was being given the same or better odds for most of the models run), but if this is anywhere close to true its extremely disturbing:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1301190941110341632?s=21h

That sounds about right. It looks like he views D+3 as the breakeven point. I've been working with D+4 being the breakeven in my own modeling.

Trump crossed into favorite territory on Betfair today, apparently. He's up to 45% on PredictIt.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Looks like we're just 500 points away from the ATH.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Lopen posted...

I thought Zoom was going to disappoint with their earnings to be honest

I don't see how their business model is profitable. You can do so much with the free version. And then when you actually need the paid version only the host needs to be on the paid version.

They must sell data or something.

They have a P/E ratio of 540 so it was probably something in their earnings report other than earnings that impressed the market.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I've been looking at Cinemark for a while. Looks like it jumped 30% before I could buy in though. I'm still kind of skeptical the movie theater business will come back that well. I feel like a lot of people are going to decide they can watch movies at home, or are getting into outdoor activities.

I do regret not buying Docusign. It was at $205 last week, sigh.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Also 2/3 may be somewhat out of date (especially with the UK leaving the EU this year) - would be pretty confident it's still in the ballpark of 60% though (including the UK).

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik7 posted...

I doubt that is even close to true, but even if it was, it would not be followed suit. Countries have strangleholds on certain products and other ways to impose their will. China has continually bucked this thru and thru.

China can make stuff for cheap. But their buyers are predominantly in the US or Europe. If the US and EU both put in substantial tariffs, there is little China can do but comply.

I am talking about nominal purchasing power, not PPP adjusted. Because the manufacturer only cares about the nominal amount, which is what they receive. It does a Chinese manufacturer little good to sell the same product in China for 50% of the price that they would get in the US. Although a Chinese consumer can replicate puchases of the same products for less money, that isn't helpful to the manufacturer.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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World unionizing isn't going to work, but the US is about 1/3 of the consumer market for the world, so we have tremendous bargaining power to unilaterally impose environmental and safety regulations, provided that we back it up with tariffs on countries that don't follow our rules. The US + EU is like 2/3 of the consumer market for the world, and the EU already has and probably will continue to have fairly solid environmental and safety regulations. It's not a union but it can give the same effect if the 2 biggest consumer markets do this.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

No, just idiots

Im clearly not saying that everyone saying that Biden is in mental decline is a Russian, but its propaganda that the Russians are pushing and clearly a lot of people here were all too willing to buy it hook, line, and sinker

There's nothing to buy, it's just true. That's why it's effective. If you can align your propaganda with truth, you tend to get better results....

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I think Trump's strategy on law and order is a winning one. Says the Democrats have lost control of the radical left anarchists. The US center loves law and order.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Its a high bar, but this might be the stupidest countermessaging yet:

https://twitter.com/steel94010/status/1300480045950078976?s=21

Does Hillary calling 25% of the country deplorable and irredeemable count as countermessaging? Because that was just about infinitely more stupid than this.

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They may get AZ, I think TX is a pipe dream.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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The usual escape mechanism for bubbles. At some point, it becomes so expensive that new buyers cannot afford to buy very many shares. At that point the price stops going up. When it stops going up, people start to sell because it isn't going up. When that happens it starts to go down. Then the world wakes up and realizes the company isn't worth anything close to its share price, and the world rushes to sell.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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HarshRapDebater posted...

i don't even get corrik's "if you disagree with a law, you should vote to change it" logic. do laws in the US ever change because they're put to a public vote? i've never heard of this kind of direct democracy existing there.

We are a representative republic. But the truth is, you don't get to change a law just because you disagree with it. Other people might like the law. We have mechanisms to change laws if an overwhelming majority of the population (or a sizable minority of the population distributed in just the right way) believes they should be changed.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik7 posted...

I highly doubt he thought death was even a possibility in his actions. I may be given him too high a standard, but I think everything in context kind of supports that. That's why the Felony Murder charge or whatever was the best charge to me and the one that I think he will receive a guilty on.

Hmm. What felony was he committing then, if he didn't realize he could cause death? I haven't studied this in ages, but I'm pretty sure manslaughter cannot be the underlying felony for felony murder. Otherwise, every manslaughter would also be a felony murder and no one would ever be convicted of manslaughter, only felony murder.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik7 posted...

You misunderstand my post. It's not that he casually murdered someone because he didn't consider it a crime. I believe he negligently conducted his job that in return murdered a person. I believe the laws will also find him guilty for precisely this. He didn't realize what he was doing could cause harm to the person that could take their life. However, just because you are negligent and ignorant does not mean that you are innocent.

He didn't realize his actions could cause death?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik7 posted...

It's not a good comparison because life isn't really a 400 turn monopoly game. Where would that end? How could you arbitrarily pick a starting and stopping point?

I think it is better to re-allocate wealth through opportunity. The problem right now with that is that there is too much allowed to be passed down upon death. I would support something like a cap on how much wealth you are allowed to transfer upon death with the rest being taken as tax and used to help continue providing opportunity to everyone as a whole in life.

I am sure I am biased because I have received nothing of the sort and was raised dirt poor, but I think the issue is compounding wealth, not past wealth.

Monopoly was designed to teach the evils of capitalism. The fundamental difference between Monopoly and the real world economy is that investment of capital generates a positive gain for society in real life, whereas in Monopoly it's a zero sum game. All the gains to the owners of hotels comes straight out of the pockets of the (involuntary) guests.

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This discussion seems to have been a disaster today. All I'll add to it it is to say that a lot of people here badly misunderstand their position - they fail to appreciate that this whole question is less a question of morality and more one of power. The founding fathers are heroes today because they won their war. If they had lost, they'd be remembered as traitors. Cersei summed it well - when you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Corrik has already said that the founding fathers committed treason, which is accurate. Under British law of the time, there is little question they were guilty.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

in b4 corrik argues this clip was obviously taken completely out of context.

also, lol @ the people cheering. trump could literally start singing supercalifragilisticexpialidocious for no discernible reason and they'd still cheer.

There's not enough context for me to figure out what he meant. If someone would post a longer segment, we could try to figure it out.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1299732426873135105?s=21

Damn Trump is cold hearted even to disloyal family members

Trump appears not to believe in time. "who was now rightfully shunned, scorned and mocked her entire life."

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Considering 95% of people never become millionaires, its definitely enough to retire early on.

But people also have a pension or social security. That provides an income stream during retirement but can't be cashed out. I think a lot more people would be millionaires if you included the present value of those retirement benefits.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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But looking at this IRS guidance, it looks like it is a hard cliff at 104k income per year. So nothing for me. Well, that's dumb, but as long as the farmers and factory workers are taken care of, I guess it's all good.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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