Lurker > CoolCly

LordoftheMorons posted...

Nobody's done well until they've cashed out

Presumably everybody here acknowledges that a share of GME is not actually worth $350. It'll equilibrate around $20 or whatever it was before. As people sell off their stocks, the price will go way down, and any money that some people are making is going to be at the expense of others who bought/sold at worse times (and nowhere near all of those losses will be from the hedge funds).

This is like a transcript of the Citron video last week that explains why GME is a $20 stock and it's definitely going down and everyone is going to lose money, but never acknowledges the short interest that is causing this

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Sunroof posted...

Guys were still super red. Not deep red, but a far cry from regular red. We have a ways to go.

Sunroof, are you able to articulate why all of us are in GME right now?

If you are able to do that, you should be able to reason out that the current price fluctuations don't actually matter. It only matters if the main assumption is no longer true (which destroying WSB actually does threaten)

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Aight $420.69 it is

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

My only regret is moving my $300 exit sell to $420.69, which was inevitable going to Friday if these shenanigans didn't happen. I've recovered most of my principal already at least but that was the clincher. I think I'm going to avoid panicing here.

My $500 bet on AMC at $15.50 seems in trouble though.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Uh oh - is the short interest being still in effect not actually true? Or is it just not these guys

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

StartTheMachine posted...

You're telling me that GME and AMC never swung 20% all day today?

...

sir please go get drunk and stop looking at your stocks on your phone

Yeah, I saw GME go up and down between $350 and $300 many times today, that's just the nature of what's happening now.

Utlimately it doesn't matter if the short squeeze happens on friday, but being up to $375 today already does make me wonder just how high it can go by Friday when the actual catalyst occurs....

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

neonreaper posted...

I have about 25% of my 'savings' in a bank account and 75% in stocks. I don't have any real explanation beyond "That feels about right to me"

this is exactly the right thing to do for a normal person. 3-6 month emergency fund in cash and contribute further savings to safe investments that will hopefully grow 4-10% per year. Within the stocks, you probably want 80% to be in safe ETF's that will keep pace with the market. If you have a short term goal like down payment on a house though you can justify keeping more cash out of the market, since downturns in the market can happen and you don't want to withdraw during those times before recovery.

I'm very concerned that almost everybody I know IRL, family and friends... aren't doing either of these. I'm thinking about reaching out to people to offer if they are interested, help on how to get monthly spending under control to work on these, but I'm not sure how to do it without it feeling like I'm selling something or that I'm lording my supreme accounting knowledge over them.

I've tried this with my parents and my closest friends and even when trying to be diplomatic as possible, people still get very defensive about their habits and why their situation is the way it is (and can't be changed). I can't imagine extended relatives and looser friends will be better. I'm worried about their ability to retire, though....

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

What exactly is the catalyst for AMC? Something about calls that are expiring tomorrow?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

oh god i was telling a coworker about GME and she thought it was so interesting and now today she suddenly is in AMC, FIZZ, and NOK

i didn't even tell her about these

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I'm moving up my $300 sell order to $420.69, as the prophecies all foretold

I was gonna park the proceeds from my other sale back in ARK, but I noticed Cloudflare dipped end of day, maybe because there was so many internet outages and people think it was cloudflare? Gonna see if I can get in at $75

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Can short positions be cash settled, or does it HAVE to be the equity itself returned? I assumed the latter but I'm not actually certain.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354174279894642703

uh oh

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

red sox 777 posted...

The idea would be to issue the new offering to the shorts so that they can cover using those shares. I am envisioning the board feverishly working with their lawyers right now about how such an offering could work logistically and legally without causing the share price to plummet. I suppose if they offered, say, 10% of the current amount of shares in new shares, it wouldn't make that big a dent in the short squeeze dynamic. There would still be over 100% shorted. And 10% I think would pay off their debt in full or come pretty close.

This is a good idea for GME - they can directly charge a high price and if its lower than what the shorters would have to pay to settle those shares, its rational for them to do it.

but what about ME

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

The hotshot new guy at gamestop actually makes me super nervous - while gamestop might have a future, it does not involve being at these insane prices. If they announce a stock offering, that could destroy the squeeze entirely.

I think the offering would be dumb - GME might be able to get money if there's actually buyers (or a company that will take shares as consideration for acquisition), but who would be dumb enough to take this deal? Accepting the shares will destroy the value of the shares.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

So I bought 65 shares for $4.5K.

I just sold 20 for $3k when it hit $150

I think I'm just gonna be greedy af with the remaining 45 shares

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I thought setting $150 as my "safe": get out to cover my principal was greedy but man do i get even greedier?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I wonder how much that would change decision making for lawmakers. The #1 incentive for any politician is generally to do what will get them reelected. How much does this change their goals? Does it change them for the better?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

red sox 777 posted...

If you don't know what it means then no.

i love these gentle pushes

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

So 40k options expiring in the money on friday would mean creating demand to buy 4million shares. Nokia has 5 billion shares outstanding according to my broker. I'm sure that *could* cause a spike, but would it really be much?

Even if the price goes to $7, it'd be 200k options, which is 20 mil shares. Still looks like a drop in the bucket?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

For real though this AMC thing looks interesting but I haven't really been looking into the details behind what you guys were saying last week, looks like you guys had a good insight on that

I'll just buy in next week when it's too late like with GME

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

diamond hands rocket to the moon

am i doing this right

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

It kinda makes sense. The assumption is that it WILL go down eventually (we all know this) so they keep doubling down on shorting. It's bold but it seems foolhardy to think it will work *this time*.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

hah yeah when i said that i actually meant the end of the week, i'll revisit next monday (Feb 1) if I haven't sold before then (though I would really love to be out well before then)

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I did it, its stupid and its dumb but I bought 65 GME at $71

I set a 35 share sell order at $150 and another 30 shares at $500. i dont expect these to trigger (especially the second) but if it goes that high I do want it to go off

I'm not going to panic sell until at least february begins and I have solid info that the peak has passed, but i'll revisit profit harvesting at some points as it goes up

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I think tens of millions of shares were bought today, but i wonder if this actually means a good portion of the squeeze happened, or if this was all just hype buying because of friday

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

ok i was literally clicking sell on my everything so i can bet it all on gamestop and my broker went down with a technical difficulty page that i've never seen before

they did this for my own good

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I'm normally very good at controlling the FOMO but man there's a real strong part of me that wants to sell all my current holdings and do something here

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

How does anybody actually see what the short interest is? And when expiry dates are going to be? I have no idea where you would actually find this.

People are saying that its somehow just as bad as before or maybe even worse. Does that mean there's STILL opportunity here? Jesus.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

it's less about story and more about immersive narrative, of which Doom 2016's is top tier. it supplements the environment and gameplay pretty perfectly.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I'll try to restrain myself from reading the full plot synopsis on Wikipedia and critical reception if I don't intend to watch it within the next couple weeks

at best

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

red sox 777 posted...

I believe you are right. The price movement is NOT continuous. It can skip between prices, and it can do so during the day in addition to the obvious gaps between market close and open.

I don't know if stop losses are visible to counterparties (I think they shouldn't be but I'm not certain). But even if they aren't, I don't doubt that HFT firms have AIs/algorithms that are quite good at predicting where retail traders will set stop losses and then cleaning them out. For example, suppose HFT firm knows that you and a lot of other traders have a stop loss set at $55. The price is currently at, say, $55.30. The HFT firm wants to buy the stock, but they'd rather pay $55 a share than $55.30. So they don't buy at $55.30, they wait until a point with a lot of stop loss orders ($55) and buy at that point.

Or, alternatively (I don't know if this is legal), they sell stock at $55.30 for the purpose of driving down the price to $55, where they believe there is a big batch of stop loss orders. Then they buy a bigger number of shares at $55. If it's legal I'm pretty confident HFT firms are doing it. I think either way, the best policy is to just not use stop losses.

Thanks!

Yeah that's one thing I'm curious about - just how much of everything is visible to everyone else. I know the "serious trading platforms" have WAY more detailed info on whats happening than I see in my normal platform i log into, but how deep does the rabbit hole go? You can even subscribe to get more data and live feeds so it has to be very detailed.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

ARKG and ARKK for life baby

Quick definitions:

Mutual fund

• Actively managed fund, they regularly make trades
• High management fees
• sign up and contribute through your broker or investment fund and they handle the rest
• Are supposedly NOT good at making money as they bring back less returns than the market on average, because nobody knows what to do

Index funds:

• Same thing as mutual funds, except passive managed to match index
• Invests in a list of major stable companies (the index) instead of actively trading all the time
• low management fees due to way less activity to manage
• Supposedly better at matching the market as it just stays invested in the major companies in the market
• isn't going to make MAD money though because it's intentionally safely matching the market, it's not trying to beat it

ETFs

• Can be either Index or Mutual funds (most etf's are apparently index funds)
• Traded on the stock market so you can just buy them directly instead of signing up through your broker
• Many ETF's exist for many sectors and strategies and you can be in a bunch of them
• can just sell any time!

ARK is actually more of a mutual fund though as its very actively managed and has higher fees, so it is more risk.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Sunroof posted...

As far as what happened to me today with GME, its the same thing as NKLA. I set a stop at a price lower than what the stock had been at the previous five minutes, constantly refreshed to make sure it never executed, then the moment I went to cancel the stop it says it executed.

I honestly believe that some shenanigans go on. There are people with way more sophisticated computers than what we see on our apps so Im sure the data were seeing isnt as accurate, but still. I lost out on $25k from NKLA and $12,500 today from GME. I have to take the advice and stop using Stops.

this can be hard to visualize, imagine there's 10 buy orders out there for $55 and then 100 buy orders in for $52. There's 10 sell orders for $61 and 100 sell orders for $65. These all just sit here because the sells are higher than the buy orders, so they aren't going to meet.

Then someone comes along and lists a sell order at $58. Still higher than those waiting buy orders. Someone places a Market Buy order and it takes that immediately (it just looks at whatever is available and buys it), or somebody also places a buy order for $58 and it meets the sell order and they match off together. Or people start placing Market Buy orders and take 5 of the $61 sell orders off the table, and some people places Market Sell orders and it takes the $55 buy orders. These transactions average together to give you a $58 average sell price. So you are constantly refreshing the page and it tells you the price is $58

So you set your stop order at $55 because you think that's below the current trading price. But is it really? There's all those buy orders for $55 READY GO TO. All it takes is for some high volume sells to go through and start digging into those 10 waiting $55 buy orders to trigger your sell order, and now you are set to a market order that will take whatever buy orders are waiting. And there's tons of buy orders waiting to immediately buy your shares.

Your stop limit was just wayyy too close to what was actually happening. I think you are lucky you didn't get hit by some opportunistic buy orders at a much lower price. Imagine if all of the waiting $55 buy orders got taken and you got hit by $52 ones?

You probably think this sucks but it's kind of working as intended - after all, if the price crashes to $20 you *want* your stop order to grab the $52 order as soon as possible before other people do so your losses don't pile up. I think you are expecting price to be more precise for you to target but that's not exactly how it seems to work.

(red sox please sign off or refute this, as this is my observation over the last few months maybe I'm way off)

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

this is probably an unpopular opinion but there probably is a significant cost to microsoft/sony/nintendo to maintain these online platforms for all games all the time for consoles( that is mitigated on PC since it's not all so centralized) that requires these annual fees, even though they feel really bad to pay.

I wonder what the right price point actually would be though? Is this too high? Is this too low?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

missed opportunity gains are an infinite black hole that the human mind is not meant to look at

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

that's a brave take

im still working through doom 2016 and whenever I say that I really like it, my brother (who just recently beat both games on Nightmare and is trying Ultra Nightmare) borderline wants to fight me for daring to suggest it's anywhere near as good as Doom Eternal

bro i just said i like the game

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

this has been very exciting to watch unfold, congratulations to those of you that made money today

following Lopen's moves is like paper trading except im somehow invested emotionally so it's very educational

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

As for the most consistently funny movie - that's an easy Scott Pilgrim for me. My favourite kind of story is typically one with a strong character driven plot that takes itself at least somewhat seriously with some big emotional highs that can seamlessly weave in comedy without taking anything away from the moment. I often say that I love it when a movie can make me laugh and then make me cry. Scott Pilgrim is pretty much the perfect movie in this regard.

In general, I like the media I consume to be enjoyable or "fun". I do think art should be challenging in some way but i don't think most of the time that means it has to be a purely uncomfortable experience, which is what I find with a movie like Mother. I don't mind trying these kinds of things occasionally but they aren't what I would seek out on average. But on the flip side, I'm not big on stories that don't take the characters or subject matter seriously enough. It should have a something with substance that it's driving at.

I think my top 10 and my recommendations all reflect this mindset. Or maybe not idk.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

This is an interesting batch of movies. There's a fantastical bend that they all have in common somehow (except Guardians).

I actually think the Guardians trailer looks *amazing* - but I already know about this films terrible reception. I wonder what actually goes wrong - are the effects much worse than they seem in the trailer? I think the character designs, landscapes, and action all look great - a lot more interesting than the average Hollywood CGI movie which is very unusual to find from other producers of live action. Is the writing and acting just terrible? I feel like a halfway decent script would be enough to make this a fun watch if the effects hold up from the trailer... I'm not really big on watching bad movies though, so i'll pass on voting it.

Thoroughbreds is my vote. This movie looks great.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

What happens if the person you bought the call from doesn't have the shares (because of the squeeze)? What if they don't have the money to buy at the absurd price it would rise to for you to profit off this?

I was wondering the same thing about puts - if someone doesn't have the money to buy your shares when you exercise that would also be a problem. Does the broker of the person have to cover it? Or do you have to take the individual or their broker to court for remedy or something?

I guess you could just sell the option also but will the price remain strong because there is always confidence it will be honoured?


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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Streaming in general makes me very uncomfortable long term as a going concern. I don't think spotify or video streaming platform subscriptions make enough money to justify the actual costs of producing content in the way that record sales, box office sales, or advertising did. Businesses are overspending to capture subscriptions to gigantic libraries of content. Eventually, the costs of holding on to libraries of content and most especially producing new content will become too much and there will be a big crunch on spending in the area.

Like, you can say that spending millions on a comedy special or tens or even hundreds of millions on a high budget show or movie is paid for by the subscriptions, as long as it gets someone to subscribe. But does it pay for making MANY specials, tv shows, and movies throughout the year, which is necessary for every platform to keep interest? I don't think it will be. Music streaming I think is already pretty well known for not paying anything to the creators since the subscriptions just aren't enough to go around. Other content industries will end up in the same place.

I wouldn't invest in anything like that long term. But I guess you can always play the short term speculative game just like anything else, since none of that is really tied to actual company value.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Sound of Metal

I enjoyed this movie a bit, but I think it kind of sputtered out.

I liked the transition into deafness. It seemed so sudden, but somehow he kept things together without people noticing for a while. The perspective of how he hears things and how he reacted to it in a sort of montage was pretty compelling. His avoidance of accepting the issue and just ignoring it, playing in the band when the doc says thats exactly what not to do... is exactly what people do, even though it seems so goddamn stupid as he does it.

I like the swap that happens sometimes between what he hears and what normal people hears. It greats sharp contrast and I think makes understanding what hes going through even clearer.

The community he goes to seems a bit culty. The leader seems like he genuinely wants to help him, and his last scene where he has to kick Ruben out was pretty good. It's clear he doesn't want to do it, but he feels he has to.

The scenes of Ruben adapting to the deaf group and beginning to fit in were nice, especially with the kids, but I'm not sure the actual storyline he followed was too good. He seems to be genuinely finding a good place there, but he suddenly decides to leave because of reading about his girlfriend when he sneaks on to the computer. But... that whole situation seems forced. He sneaks in to look at the computer a few times because its a rule that he can't communicate with the outside world? Feels like manufactured drama. He has a friendly community to integrate into, but it doesn't seem like he's getting any kind of counseling to talk out his issues. He just has that room where he's supposed to write and stay still. I like the idea of that room... but does the leader guy really think that's a substitute for someone to talk to when Ruben isn't allowed to communicate with anybody from his life? The whole situation seems underdeveloped.

Eventually, Ruben unliterally suddenly decides to do the cochlear implants (that he clearly didn't try and understand earlier, because it's just a lifeline to his old life that he was grasping for). It felt like this just kind of happened, and it didn't feel too natural to me. I think the whole pawning plot about needing to get his stuff back was a a weak attempt to give stakes to his life but didn't really mean much. It makes him ask the church leader and maybe his gf's dad for money I guess which makes him seem addict like but it matter at all.

I do like that the implants didn't really give him what he wanted. It's just a shadow of what hearing used to be like. He's never going to get that back, and now he's destroyed his place with that community. too. This would have felt a lot more impactful if there had been more insight into Ruben deciding to do the surgery instead of it being so sudden. Then the movie ends when Ruben takes out the implants and realizes he appreciates the silence.

Overall, It was a decent look at seeing someone deal with the sudden development of a major disability that tears away a major passion of their life. I think it handled the initial onset, and the denial and anger stages pretty well, and an ok stage at of the very beginning of acceptance while living in the community. It didn't really go the distance with this though.

6/10. I enjoyed this movie more than Mother, but I don't think it was nearly as well done. I think the second half of the movie wasn't nearly as good as the first half.

Also I expected more Metal to be part of the movie... and better than what we got at the start.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Sure!

Submitted for the approval of the board 8 movie society:

Knives Out
Arrival
In Bruges
What We Do In The Shadows
Baby Driver

Trailers:

Knives Out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi-1NchUqMA

Arrival
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFMo3UJ4B4g

In Bruges
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-gG2qo_l_A

What We Do In The Shadows
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAZEWtyhpes

Baby Driver
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9YZw_X5UzQ


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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

That this is possible just doesn't really make sense to me. There's no way to recover this? But I guess this might be considered a feature of bitcoin

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Oh yeah that sounds like it is what you are saying. Interesting, so you bought in to screw with all the short sellers.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

Wait. I'd read a while ago that there's more shorts sold on GME than is really possible with the outstanding shares on the market.

Which means it's difficult if not impossible for short sellers to even get the stocks they need to return the borrowed stock. So they have to buy whatever market price is to return the stock, which since there is SO MANY they are driving up the price because they have to buy at whatever people are selling at, but there's not enough volume so the price goes up until there is. So nobody actually wants to buy at this price - they are forced to do it to cover their position.

Is that what's happening here? Goddamn this is stupid

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

I think you have to have a VERY strong grasp of how shorting and options work to really make money on them, so that you can actually time them correctly and pull them off correctly. You could have a good idea but if you execute it wrong you could lose money quickly and easily. If you don't have a good idea of what you are doing to begin with then making money seems practically impossible. A string of logical events needs to happen for you to make money, so if you can't foresee each of those events it'd be tough to avoid a bad event.

Meanwhile, just buying and holding stocks can either gain or lose regardless of how good your idea is. It's a lot more straightforward. I buy stock, stock go up, I make money!

I think Lopen has had pretty sound logic in his plays so it looks like he might do okay but I think unless you can explain to yourself why you want to make a play on something and how it will work out like he has been doing, you probably aren't ready to try them. That's how I feel about myself anyways. Come to think of it.... that might be why he talks out his strategies here, to say it out loud and confirm it isn't a dumb idea to himself. I'll have to do that when I start trying to do options....

red sox 777 posted...

The short interest. People shorted over 100% of the float.

Hmm. I think there's probably gains to be made here on whatever weird shit is happening with GME, though I haven't really flowed through the logic of it all.

But there has to be more to the upward movement of GME than people trying to game the stock against the other people gaming the stock, right? Or is this just purely circular stock manipulation with no basis on actual value of the company and whoever plays this right will make a bunch of money and whoever doesn't will lose a bunch of money when it eventually crashes?

Or is there actual some serious intrinsic value in Gamestop people see? SOMEBODY must think buying at $31 is a good idea. I haven't been able to really uncover any reason why....

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

lmao i can never understand GME no matter how hard i try

what convinced you to buy in other than sheer memery?

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

i like the spotify pc app. it's the phone app i find clunky to use. i almost never try and use the phone app for playlist management, i just mentally note if i want to make changes until the next time i get to the phone app. this usually means i forget about it and don't make changes. too bad the phone app isn't better.

i REALLY wish it had song ratings though. "liking" to add to your library being the extent of it sucks.

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG

xp1337 posted...

New competitor in "worst f***ing take" - Jeanine Pirro on Fox and Friends says the deplatforming of Parler is "akin to Kristallnacht.": https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1348636201041977344 (click to expand)

ok well that's gotta be someone watching Arnie's phenomenal speech and deciding they have a cool new word to reference

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The batman villians all seem to be one big joke that batman refuses to laugh at - SantaRPG