Lurker > red sox 777

Moonroof posted...

Im putting my faith in you guys.

Chris, on the one hand your AAL advice two months ago crippled me. On the other hand, I couldve just held. And I knew that when I sold, but the stress was getting to me and I needed to clear my head.

You can't blame his advice for that. AAL is currently trading higher than its price on probably 90%+ of days over the past 3 months. Chris has been invested in for a long time. You just picked the worst time to buy in, during that one week in June when it spiked like crazy.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The payroll tax thing will very likely only end up being a deferral, and the money that was not withheld this year is considered 2020 income on which you will then owe more tax (thread):

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1292887059749896193?s=21

Even if it's just a deferral, I'd much rather pay it in 2021 than 2020. And I don't think there's any way it can be a deferral and also taxable income. At worst, they would figure some rate of reasonable interest and consider the waived interest from the EO as income from forgiveness of debt. But for an average deferral period of just 2 months, we are probably talking about income taxes on the order of $5. Like, one coffee at Starbucks.

And I don't think it would just be a deferral. Whoever is in charge in 2021 is going to be under severe pressure to forgive it.

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Yeah holding over 1 year is really good on the tax side if you are showing gains. 15% vs. whatever your marginal rate is.

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I'm holding because we've finally moved past resistance that had been in place for a couple months. Might be the time that things make their move past the early June highs. Will probably sell off some shares if we breach those and reallocate to another sector. But not that many as my travel allocation has already been reduced quite substantially over the last month.

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Vote away!

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And bailouts ALWAYS reward the most profligate spenders. Let's look at two hypothetical casinos in Atlantic City (no claim being made about the real Trump Taj Mahal).

Trump Taj Mahal:

Revenue: 500 million
Regular operating expenses: 300 million
Licensing fee to Donald Trump: 200 million
Net income: 0
Retained earnings (after 10 years): 0

Responsible Casino

Revenue: 500 million
Regular operating expenses: 300 million
Net income: 200 million
Dividends to shareholders: 100 million
Retained earnings (after 10 years): 1 billion

Now a hurricane hits and casinos close for a month or two. Both casinos lose 100 million in revenue. Responsible Casino continues operations as normal, and uses 10% of its retained earnings of $1 billion to ride it out. Trump Taj Mahal has no retained earnings because thanks to the 200 million annual licensing fee to DJT, it's never turned a profit. Trump Taj Mahal announces that if they don't get a bailout, all of their employees will immediately be fired. The bailout comes and.....40% of it is used to continue paying that licensing fee to DJT.

The solution is to send the bailout money directly to the people who deserve it - the employees.


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LordoftheMorons posted...

How good or bad a job any state has been at managing its budget (or whatever) is completely irrelevant. This money is a reimbursement for the states covering the Federal government's responsibility in dealing with COVID since Trump totally abdicated responsibility. They should never have had to incur those costs in the first place, and the government not making them whole will further devastate states' economies as they're forced to enact heavy austerity. This isn't just a blue state thing, either. Lots of red states have been hit hard by COVID and should be bailed out as well.

Trump has been handling it. You may not like his strategy but he is handling it. Time will show whether it is a good one or not. But giving out money to states so they can implement strategies that go against the national strategy and could jeopardize it is a problem.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The SALT stuff probably shouldn't be in there (and if Pelosi has to make concessions, trading away that's an easy one), but the federal government absolutely needs to bail out the states. They have had to take on the enormous burden of dealing with the pandemic since Trump has been worse than useless and has abdicated all responsibility for something that any other administration would have dealt with on a federal level, and states don't have the flexibility to borrow trillions of dollars for less than free like Congress can.

That's the sticking point - these blue states want a lot of money they can spend with no oversight. California has blown the highest tax revenues of any state in the Union building.......prisons? I feel like CA has just about the WORST infrastructure of any state, the slowest courts, the slowest DMVs, the highest traffic, a lot of the worst schools (and some of the best), state universities that charge tuition like private schools, and extremely high incarceration rates.

I do not want the Federal government giving CA any more money when they've proven to be totally incompetent at using it. Would much prefer the Feds directly handle the situation.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Like what? What specifically is bad?

Billions of dollars in handouts to California and New York.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

oh yeah, i'm sure trump accused hillary of being a liar multiple times in debates. another example is when he said that she was lying when she claimed he said that climate change is a hoax created by china. he didn't say "hillary is a liar because she disagrees with me on economics," though. apparently, even trump gets that that's ridiculous.

now, to go back to corrik's analogy, would hillary be justified in saying "you're an asshole" after that quote you posted? i'd say so, yeah. corrik was saying "when that's your approach, it's impossible to have a debate," but what debate is there to be had anyway? trump just said "you're a liar (unlike lincoln)." not many places you can go from there.

i really don't give a crap if politicians are rude or use profanity tbqh. i thought the "BETO USED THE F-WORD" thing was stupid as fuck.

The comparison is bad, because there are at least 2 big differences between you and Hillary in this situation:

1. Hillary lied and got caught in a lie. You were not lying.
2. Hillary was a politician at a debate and you aren't.

So yes, you have a lot more reason to express anger at being accused of lying than Hillary. You also have less reason to be civil about it as you aren't worried about losing support for being uncivil.

That said, I think it would be beneficial to everyone if people took things said here a little less personally.

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Moonroof posted...

My biggest issue is holding long. But buying today doesnt seem to be buying low?

I understand the concern. It's a tough predicament and I wouldn't want to buy a stock that's just posted a +8% day either. That said, travel stocks have had a pretty rough last 2 months and are still well below the June 8 high, let alone the pre-virus highs.

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Ah that makes sense then. I was thinking, AAL is up less than 30% in the last week, what other stocks could you have to bring the average up to 56%? With margin it makes sense. Very gutsy on your part.

Moonroof, this is how the market works - if you want to buy low and sell high you've got to start by buying low.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

25 year old Chris would be confused by this amount in stocks lol. I am up 56% for the week.

How's that possible? Are you using margin?

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Corrik7 posted...

Based on the few times I watched the news on tv, I had always thought MSNBC was always the middle ground news agency with CNN left and Fox Right. I must have caught my rare tv watching of news on a good day.

It is weird how many people don't realize there is different political slant stations.

My father was watching CNN and was like bitching and moaning how terrible the news is and reports bullshit about Trump nonstop. I was like why you watching the Clinton News Network then (lol). And he was like what you mean? Literally didn't know Fox existed. He watches both now lol. (That was in 2016).

MSNBC is further "left" than CNN but they also have much better quality reporting. Like, they actually report facts. When they report opinion, they're pretty transparent that it's opinion. CNN acts as if they don't understand the difference between opinion and fact, or don't care.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

that's totally different.

first of all, "he called me a liar" is a ridiculous thing to say there as hillary states the opinion that trump would be bad for america. trump then says "i disagree," not "you're lying." when you're discussing opinions, accusing each other of "lying" is intellectually dishonest.

second of all, i'm not saying you can't call me a hypocrite, so long as you provide evidence. you just said "you're against fox's bias but you're totally fine with CNN's bias." no references, no citations of old posts where i say i'm madly in love with CNN, nothing. an attack without proof is called an insult.

Trump actually did call Hillary a liar during a debate. It was when Hillary tried to justify having a private position and a public position by arguing that she learned the strategy of saying different things to different people from Abraham Lincoln. And Trump said (paraphrasing): "She lied, she got caught in the lie, and now she's blaming the late, great, Abraham Lincoln. Honest Abe. Honest Abe never lied. That's the difference between Abraham Lincoln - and you. That's a big big difference. That's some difference."

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I haven't bought any biotech stocks because I have no clue whether each of them is going to succeed with their drugs or not. With the information I have, it would just be gambling.

Lopen is right that buying some of all the airlines should be fairly safe and still profitable.

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Corrik7 posted...

Attacking your position is insulting you. Debate literally cannot exist in your world.

Can you imagine Clinton saying you are not good for America. Trump saying Wrong. Then Clinton saying Fuck off you shitbag on national TV. Then when asked why she did that. She goes, He called me a liar!

Like lol that's pretty ridiculous?

Well, that's basically what Aaron Burr and Alexander Hamilton did.

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I think DAL is still a good deal at $29. They have like $15 billion or something in cash reserves to ride things out in case the government bailout falls through, so I don't think a bankruptcy is likely. Plenty of opportunity for growth back up to the pre-covid high above $60.

As an added benefit, if you hold to next year, you don't need to show a gain on it this year and you can use the AAL loss on your taxes.

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I will say, the Democrats got outmaneuvered yet again here. I thought they had a good position on this one but somehow Trump still pulls a rabbit out of the hat at the end and now the Democrats are in a position where they can (1) do nothing, or (2) sue the President for providing emergency aid to working class Americans during a pandemic and election year. Either way they're going to look ridiculous.


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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Compromise isn't needed tbh. Republicans need to spend money to help the American people or not. The correct position is not always in the middle.

I think it's pretty obvious the Republican negotiations were not in good faith, at least since Thursday or so. If Trump was serious, he, the great dealmaker, would have handled this negotiation personally. Similarly, if Mitch thought he was going to get a deal he would be involved. Instead, they handed it off to a couple unelected executive branch officials while Trump went to play golf (I assume this based on him being at his golf club). But Trump was ready to give that press conference announcing the executive orders immediately after getting back from his round of golf when the negotiations failed, which shows that was the result he expected all along.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/1292198250552860672

Didn't realize his plan included permanently killing the payroll tax

In other words, "President Trump promises to kill Social Security and Medicare"

About time someone did something about the Ponzi scheme known as Social Security. But don't think that Trump would kill the payments to retirees - there will be new methods of paying for it. Whether through progressive income taxes or money printing, the effect will be the same - to make the upper middle class pay for it. Which is fair, as they've been proportionally paying less into it for decades.

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These are not the best written bills or orders or memoranda or whatever. But that's expected when White House staff probably put these together in a matter of hours without any of the usual process that goes into writing and reviewing legislation. But, since they aren't law, Trump/his cabinet can easily put out guidelines for interpreting and implementing these later.

As written it's not clear if the payroll tax deferral has a hard cutoff for people who make over $104k a year. It could be read as that. If you make $103,999 a year, you get the maximum benefit. If you make $104,001 a year, you get nothing (and you are rushing off to your employer to ask them to cut your salary by a couple dollars). Now that would be an insanely stupid rule and not how any other tax provision works, so hopefully they release guidance that it doesn't mean that, and just means the person making $104,001 only gets to defer the payroll tax on the first $104k of income.

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Since someone asked me in the previous topic directly: No I do not support a monarchy in the US, and never have. I do try to warn people about the courses of action that push us toward bad results like that, like the Democrats' insistence on running Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

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Corrik7 posted...

So I am definitely voting for Biden now and probably pulling my 401k cuz I have literally zero financial reliability and understanding of what is even going on anymore. Shit is fucking stupid.

My state alrdy is withholding unemployment insurance by almost 3% for lack of funds. Now they want states to fund 25% of this. Which surely sounds illegal to force them to do, which I get it basically them saying do it or you won't the the federal money. But like wtf is even going on at this point.

Would you incur a tax penalty for withdrawing from your 401k now or was that waived by the previous legislation? In any event, unless you need the money now, seems like a bad idea. Your 401k is going to be much safer than cash when the government is going on a money printing spree.

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Trump going all out to buy his way to reelection. It'll probably work. People won't see through it, or they will and won't care because they are getting thousands of dollars from this.

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None of those reasons given explain why he would need to withdraw 200k in cash. It's easier to pay for expenses using funds in a bank account than vast amounts of cash.

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Trump giving a press conference right now. Guess we'll find out soon.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

He can't extend the boosted unemployment benefits. Congress allocates funds, not the Executive. I don't think he can suspend payroll taxes either (he could probably stop enforcing any punishment for nonpayment, but without Congress those taxes should still be owed).

Well, this is why it's concerning. If he just does it and dares Congress to sue him...... this is how executives gain power.

And of course, there is already precedent set by DACA that the President can do whatever he wants in the guise of regulating enforcement of the laws.

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Trump is going to look good out of this, when he issues executive orders doing what Congress can't agree to. But it's really bad for the country long-term. The President should not be able to rule by fiat, like an absolute monarch.

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Election 2020: Russia vs. China

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StartTheMachine posted...

Wait what. Warrants go to zero if the company is acquired?

Only if the company is acquired for no more than the strike price.

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StartTheMachine posted...

Expiration is April 27, 2025 and strike price is 11.50. I have no desire to exercise them, the play is selling them back. 52 week high is 4.92 and that's when the stock (still as a blank check company) traded barely above 10.

In news not considering my stupidity: seriously, if anyone one here has Moonroof money, throw 100k at the warrants while they're cheap and don't be a dolt like me and sell/stop limit them when they hit 4+. They were trading at 4.52 when the stock was only at 10. Theoretically they could trade around 6 to 8 if the stock hits 20 as the AVCT discord seems to believe possible post ER, but at the very least 4 is more of a guarantee. And those discord guys are fucking smart.

I currently have 30,600 AVCTW shares and will sell whatever they hit post ER in hopes just to do it again. Massive potential for me to still make 100k+ trade. If I actually fucking sell this time. I should figure out a good trailing stop order maybe.

Please understand what you are doing here. You are essentially taking $20,000 and betting it on one spin at a fair roulette table. Yes, they got rid of the green spaces, so your odds are okay, but you are still making something that's very much like an all or nothing bet. Some big investor could come in tomorrow, decide AVCT is a great opportunity and undervalued and offer to buy out AVCT for $11.50 a share, and the shareholders would gladly take that deal, because they'd make more than 50% overnight. If that happened your warrants would go to ZERO.

Now I'm not saying that you won't make a fortune with this; I'm just saying it's super risky. There's a reason the warrants are so much cheaper than the stock, and that's because the company obviously has value, but the warrants don't unless the stock price goes up.


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StartTheMachine posted...

I never hit a 100k. I WOULD have hit 100k if my buy limit order the day before to more than double my shares (20 cents below the price at the end of that day, 4.63) went through. I was cool not selling because I was in on AVCT so early I don't mind ignoring the noise of the day trading market. Aaaaand then I realized warrants were a way more enormous multiplier of your money so now I want the most money possible to throw at them, so I sold some AVCT shares a little over 8 like a goddamn chump to throw there.

This will be over 14 at some point next week but the point is again that I could have so much more money to throw at the warrants :( They skyrocket with the stock. Basically, I have to quit punishing myself for previous trades. The only reason I didn't sell at 60k total account value was that in my mind was the thought that it SHOULD be a 100k trade. And punishing yourself for what you could've done is just a surefire way to never make money.

TLDR: I'm literally the worst trader ever who is still making money somehow. Yeah my account is back below 40k and was at over 60k pre-market yesterday, and all I had to do was set goddamn stop limits wtf.

What's the expiration and strike price on the warrants?

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I bought some GPRO before earnings yesterday - a disaster so far. Glad I only put in a few hundred dollars, but now that it's down 10% I might add some more.

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The drastic increase in the asserted executive power shown by Trump in the past month, in which he's claimed to have near dictatorial powers over the economy, is really troubling. Joe, can you please pick someone as your VP who isn't a prosecutor, Obama official, liberal elitist, or neocon? How about Mayor Pete? Then promise to issue no executive orders other than revoking unconstitutional ones issued by previous presidents, promise to appoint a conservative Supreme Court justice, and reappoint Betsy Devos, and you've got my vote.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Once again Biden apologizes when he screws up rather than quadrupling down (three tweet thread):

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1291540507416559617

No, that's exactly what he meant. And that's not an apology, he's saying that he meant something the opposite of
what he said.

Regarding the new executive orders, I hope the courts swiftly find that this is beyond the President's power (maybe beyond the power of Congress too as there are major free speech issues). It's really disappointing that the US and China have gotten to the point of banning each other's companies, as if the Cold War were back.

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Moonroof posted...

Every time someone buys a stock, they should bold it for all to see. That way, additional people can join in thus helping the stock.

While I don't think any of us have enough money to actually cause stock prices to move by buying them in any appreciable way, it's probably better not to suggest anything that looks anything like market manipulation. Pump and dump schemes are illegal and we don't want to create any appearance of one.

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If Biden gets in, he's going to build a cancer-causing windmill on your lawn. If you don't have a lawn, it's going to go on your roof. If you don't have a roof, you'll be carted off to a labor camp to generate electricity by spinning a turbine.

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Yeah, want to say that you were correct not to go all-in on it. You still get where you want to go doing 50% instead of 100%, it just takes you two big gains instead of one. But when you get there you stay there (or, you drop back down and then go up again). With 100% risked eventually you'll hit a disastrous trade and it will be very hard to make up that loss.

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Bill Clinton or Obama would have made a full apology, and they would have sounded sincere. Trump would have said every single last person he prosecuted was a dangerous criminal and he did a great job protecting the people from them. Kamala Harris gave a BS answer that just showed she doesn't regret what she did and would do it again, but understands that it's unpopular.

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It's like Biden wants to lose. Seriously, go back and listen to Kamala's answer to Tulsi at the debate. Basically, her defense was "I was just doing my job." But she was in a position where she had discretion - it's not like she was following orders from above.

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Ah now I see what the news was. Someone reported that Congress is looking at adding more payroll support for airlines. And now, after hours they are up yet more, because Trump has signaled his approval.

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Congrats Blur. You've probably hit a new all-time high with this right?

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In short, it's much better to rely on a strong, well-crafted, constitution that limits all power, good or bad, than on being able to constantly select good leaders. The constitution needs to be set up to stop people from getting too much power, regardless of whether they are good or bad. Because bad leaders will still believe themselves good, and get followers to believe the same.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

not really, no. we only need to take one look at nazi germany to know that "people wanting power and stopping at nothing to get it" can lead to terrible consequences.

good things should happen because people want them to happen. they shouldn't incidentally happen because people lust for power.

Because their constitution wasn't set up to achieve a peaceful balance of power. Power was concentrated in one institution - the Reichstag. To the extent that there was another center of power at all, it was in the office of the Presidency, which by 1932 was occupied by a popular and respected but senile octagenarian. They had not one but two major parties (the Nazis and the Communists) openly advocating for an end to democracy while campaigning in an election.

The US system does not rely on people being virtuous all the time, because the reality is, sometimes they are not. And you want a strong system of laws and customs to ensure that bad people cannot get too much power. In the US, the greatest danger comes when the two big parties agree - then there are not much in checks and balances stopping them from acting together. So the centrists are the most dangerous people to put in office.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

what do you mean, "whether it's good or bad"?

"gee i have no idea whether or not republicans wanting power no matter what the consequences are is bad."

Well, if the consequences are good, wouldn't it be good? Our system is based on checks and balances.....the idea is that people should strive for power but never attain it. And in the striving they do good things.

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Did some really good news come out about travel? I see travel stocks way up.

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Also, 2 of the directors that were voted onto the LK board last month resigned. There's going to be another general shareholder meeting next month and some shareholders are trying to get the independent director who was running the audit reinstated. No idea what's actually going on at LK. Stock is back to $2.23 but I don't think I'm touching this one above $1.50.

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Today turned into quite a green day for me thanks to CAR rising 10% for no discernible reason. I bought some ELY ahead of their earnings tomorrow - I've been starting to play some golf and have noticed the courses are pretty busy with people unable to do indoor activities and so increasing their time spent on outdoor activities. Hopefully the earnings will be good. Also thinking about buying GPRO to capitalize on the outdoor trend.

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Here in California, there's a lot of people who bought a house for $100k and have seen its value rise to over $1 million. Thanks to Prop 13 in CA, they pay very little property tax relative to the actual value of the house, since the tax is based on the purchase price. Yet, they are now complaining that they don't get to deduct the full amount of their property tax and state income tax from their federal taxable income. We don't need extra tax breaks for millionaires. Not while our infrastructure is crumbling, inequality is at record highs, and inflation-adjusted wages haven't gone up for working class people in 40 years.

You see the Republicans won the 2016 election because they MADE AN OFFER. The offer was to give an aid package 80% to the top 1% and split the other 20% among the bottom 80% or so, with the 20% below the top 1% paying for it. The Democrats complain and complain about how bad this offer is.....but they never made a counteroffer. They offered nothing. 20% is better than 0.

And now they still absolutely refuse to make an offer. So they try to make the election about morals and identity and Trump's character. Because the establishment Dems absolutely will not do a thing that would require the upper middle class to pay a penny more than they do now, and they've basically completely given up on making the rich pay more. So they offer nothing.

What Biden should do is REPENT, and lead the party in repentance. Admit that he's lost his way. Admit the party has lost its way. Then refuse the nomination and instruct his delegates to vote for Bernie.

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