Lurker > red sox 777

But $1 million is not enough to be spending much money. And that includes buying a house in an expensive area.

I think the better plays are to (1) keep working and investing aggressively, or (2) cut cost of living and keep investing aggressively. If you are at $5 million+ you can probably afford to retire, invest conservatively, and live off the income.

But even then, I'd want to keep a big share of my portfolio in aggressive investments. Living off of interest/dividends just seems like a boring way to live.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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TBQH I think I'd feel fairly comfortable with $1 million in post-tax assets in the present. That's very different from $1 million in pre-tax income over a number of years in the future, which is worth a lot less.

I think with $1 million if I got worried about it not being enough I could move to somewhere with low cost of living and drive an Uber or something to meet living expenses.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Looks like GME sold 3.5 million shares at an average price of $157, raising $551 million in cash. About double the market cap of the company last year around this time LOL.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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That is ridiculous. Bitcoin has been massively profitable for most people who bought it while 4 out of top 5 on that chart probably have most people who use them lose money.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Hi Corrik, I'm sorry to hear this is happening. Losing 55 pounds in 2 months is pretty extreme. I've skipped a lot of meals in my life and had trouble working up the motivation to get out of bed/work so I feel you.

As a lawyer (and to be clear, nothing I'm saying here should be seen as legal advice), I am not sure if you need a lawyer yet as long as she doesn't have one. Legal fees and litigation can be very expensive in terms of money, time, and emotions. The best way to resolve this is probably through a settlement between the two of you.

If she does hire a lawyer, I think it'd be a good idea for you to get one too. I don't think you should volunteer to pay for her lawyer. Definitely don't pay for her lawyer and not for one of your own.

I think you do need someone to take care of you during this process, someone who can look at things objectively or at least not through the lens of depression. What you see during depression is NOT reality. You are not in a position to make good decisions while depressed, and that's especially true for big decisions like this. That someone (or multiple people) can be a lawyer but I don't think it necessarily has to be.


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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Justice has not been served. A murderer being found guilty cannot bring back the victim. That would be justice.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Prisons - locking human beings in cages - are cruel. Should they be abolished?

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StartTheMachine posted...

So apparently shorting when there are no actual shares to short is another thing only institutional investors can do, because of course. This is like the 4th time this has happened to me and I got curious because every single time I wanted to would have been a huge play. Fuck that shit. Obviously I don't want to short long term or hell even a swing, but it's kinda ridiculous that institutions probably all shorted coinbase's ipo today in the millions and I couldn't short 5 thousand dollars worth. 0/4 attempted shorts that would have made me bank.

Why would you want to short a stock when there are no shares to short? That screams short squeeze potential.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

I have a very high standard of friendship and as such have lost touch with more friends than I can count. By that same standard, the friends I do keep in touch with are unwaveringly loyal to me as I am to them. The standard is high on both ends but I do believe in cutting the cancer out your life.

To draw the stock parallel, I reckon you could say EVRI is my best friend, RIOT is some guy I just met and just invited me to his wedding, and FUBO invited me to his wedding but canceled it last second after I booked the flight.

It's hard to explain this situation so I'm not going to go into detail, but I will say that both of us are unwaveringly loyal to each other and I am pretty sure will always be.

The Coinbase valuation makes me more bullish on SCHW. Stocks are a much bigger market than crypto and Coinbase isn't going to be able to charge its crazy high commissions forever.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Whats the matter, red?

I've suffered from anxiety for the majority of my life, but what's happening at the moment is, basically, my best friend hasn't been speaking to me for a long time, and although I think things have gotten a little better recently, I came across something that triggered fears about how long it's going to take until he talks with me again/if things are ever going to get better.

Zachnorn posted...

Only ever make financial decisions when you're able to think clearly.

This is my philosophy when it came to gambling and that's one of my gambling lessons I've brought into stocks. Regardless of your feeling on stocks compared to casino games, risk (at different levels, over different lengths of time) is part of both. So I agree - if your anxiety is bad, it's best to avoid looking at your stocks and acting on them.

From one person with anxiety issues to another, I hope you feel better soon.

Thanks. I've used casino gambling as a way of dealing with anxiety before, trying to suppress it by keeping myself in a state where I have money at risk in the very very short term so I have to think about that and can't think about anything else. It was a rather expensive way of dealing with things.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Had a horrible week dealing with personal anxiety. Have barely been able to summon up enough caring to look at my stocks. Probably for the best though - that way avoids making bad decisions.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm at the point where I'm skeptical GME will actually surge through $500 anytime soon but I also find the seemingly concerted media blitz against it LOL-worthy. Maybe I should sell puts.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/1379065726686879746?s=21

Clarence Thomas is absolutely horrible as usual

Thank you Justice Thomas. Excellent as usual!

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Sunroof posted...

Also Ford went from $3k premium to $1400. I knew that one was too good to be true and itd thetad hard today.

Well yeah, on Friday it had 7 days to expiry. Now it has 4. And the price is up today.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm going to get back into EXR. It has a nice dividend and IMO great prospects for growth.

I think I got a little too greedy chasing massive potential gains with innovative tech companies in February and lost out by selling out of some high confidence non-tech companies so that I could add to the tech positions and bring my cost average on those down.

This only has a small dividend, but my biggest position is now SCHW. I think they remain greatly undervalued with the boom in retail investing, which I think is here to stay.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Vote away!

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Just looked up theta, great new term.

How do these people come up with their numbers anyway?

They start with the assumption, which is totally reasonable but which you don't seem to believe, that there is no such thing as a "free lunch" on the market. There is no investment you can make that will be profitable, riskless, and easy to find. Then there is some math you can to do work back from the current premiums for different strikes/expiries to figure out what the options market thinks the probabilities are.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

I base all my opinions on the trends. I know you all will say I should be basing it on DD, research, etc. And youre not wrong. But Im looking at the one week and one month chart and noticing that it doesnt move a whole lot, much less below $12.

I will tell you this again, and you're not going to listen, but if you're basing your investment decisions solely on ultra-short term trends, you're not going to make much money in the long run. You will probably lose money. And I'm not sure what you're looking at - F was over $13 less than 3 weeks ago. If you zoom out to a bit over a year you will see that it has trebled from the low point.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Why do you think it has a high chance of being below $11.85 at Friday close?

He is probably just going by what the options market is saying (the market puts a high premium on it). The more important question is why do you think it doesn't? You're the selling the put. If you think the options market is wrong, you should have a good reason for your belief.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Because Ford is pretty volatile. I'm up about 100% on it and plan on holding until I hit the one year mark in June. It's not GME but compared to those others it's pretty volatile.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Wow, +916k jobs in March for the US. That's an impressive number.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Might be common knowledge but I read that most day traders do not hold positions over a weekend. They close all positions on the last trading day of the week, typically Friday, except for holidays like this week where the market is closed on Friday.

Reason is, stupid unforeseen stuff can happen over a weekend that will affect stock prices. So, from a traders point of view, having maximum flexibility (cash) is best at market open on Monday.

This is another reason to start your calls and puts on Monday rather than Friday.

This is a reason you DO want to hold over the weekend. Those people are going to be paying a premium for the lowered risk they get from not holding over the weekend. This is one of the reasons the vast majority of day traders lose money.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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BRK.B

If you use Geico and you own shares you can also get a discount on your car insurance.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Unless I am reading this or doing something wrong, looks like I can buy back right now for less than what I got in premium? Far less than the $5600 figure.

Because the stock went up. If it went down you'd have to pay more. It went up, so you can close the position for a profit. Stocks can go both down and up.

The point at where you'd have to pay $5,600 to buy it back looks to be a little above $178, and that's assuming no time value for the puts at all. If you're doing it before late on the last day, that point would actually be higher.

If you had done this 2 weeks ago with VIAC (and CBS is a pretty "safe" company) you'd in a hole that it would take years to climb out of with this strategy, if ever.

Also, I am not saying that this strategy will return you 11.7% on average. That was done with very rough assumptions that I believe are quite generous to this strategy.

But like, this risk profile wouldn't be bad if it was diversified among 3 or 4 companies.... it is less risky (with less upside) than owning the stock, after all.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

I dont think it did, unless youre counting its high and comparing to its low?

I'm counting Friday close to Friday close.

Sunroof posted...

Okay, so 80% chance I net $1,400, 19% chance I decide whether to buy back the option or keep the shares, and .00001% chance it drops over $25% and I lose.

If you're paying more than $5,600 on average to buy back the options and you are doing that 20% of the time then you would be losing here. If you are doing that 20% of the time and you pay $2,800 on average, then your return after a year (I'm going to simplify and assume a 50 week year with 2 weeks of vacation) would be 1,400*40 - 2,800*10 = $28,000, which is a return of 11.7% on 238k. Not bad, but nowhere near 31%.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And you know, if you are that confident in Disney, why not just buy the stock and participate in the upside? Not sure how one would be super confident that the stock isn't moving up or down but will stay where it is.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Sunroof posted...

Sure, but how often does Disney fall 3% in exactly one week without bouncing back by the seventh day?

Just 2 weeks ago it fell more than 3%. Last week it fell by 2.7%.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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I'm just saying, thinking of this as returning 31% in a year is completely unrealistic. That's assuming literally everything goes right. I'd be very skeptical this would return more than 9% a year on average (that is, the mean, the median is probably higher).

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Moderately low? You'd hit that strike price with a drop of less than 3%! If it falls to $181 you're probably in the red on that weekly and if it falls to $170 you're probably out 10 weeks of premiums in one shot.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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It doesn't have to go bankrupt to lose; that was just an extreme case. You'd start losing if it falls a little under $182.50.

My feeling is, this investment is probably overall safer than owning 250k of Disney stock, and also has a lower average return than that. It is not clear that selling this particular put is positive EV at all. Probably it is but it's hard to value. Basically certainly the EV is not +31%/year.

If you think the market will decline, you could also just stay in cash for a while.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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A lot depends on your position sizing. For instance, if you had a trade available that returned +10% 999 times out of 1000 and -100% 1 time out of 1000, this trade is phenomenally +EV but if you keep doing it with all your money you will go bankrupt. You might build your portfolio from thousands to millions first, but you will lose it all when that 1/1000 chance hits.

If, on the other hand, you attack this trade with good position sizing, you can keep doing it forever and will end up very rich and stay that way. In the real market you of course will hardly ever find a trade with as good risk/reward as the above.

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As long as there's time value left, the premium will be greater than the value if the buyer exercised immediately upon purchase.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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You can also hedge against extreme tail risk by buying a put for a lower strike. Like say, buying a $170 strike put. Then your potential loss is limited to the $12.50/share between $182.50 and $170.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Hmm....I think I get much more upset about losing the same amount of money in a casino as in the stock market. In the stock market, I see everything I buy as an investment. The duration of time I expect to hold can be different but everything has to be positive expectation. It doesn't have to be safe either but it has to be something that I believe will make money on average.

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Nanis23 posted...

Think of it this way
The most you can lose is $190 if GME crash and burn
But if it skyrockets and gamma squeeze activates it can reach $1000!

Well that was my logic when I bought one share at $74
But yeah I am not doing this with $190

Also why is volume dying makes it a good sign? To me it sounds like the hype is dead

Because previously, volume dying has preceded big spikes. It makes sense - shorts depend on volume. The less volume there is, the harder it is to cover their positions.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Our top 3 advance to the runoff.

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I've since found info as to whether they are calls or puts. Not sure if Market Chameleon added it since I looked before or if I just didn't see it somehow. GME actually has a lot more puts than calls. Some people have speculated about a downward gamma squeeze with puts, but I'm not really seeing that as all that possible because selling a put has a maximum possible loss which is known from the start.

I don't think we can tell if it's covered or naked. I wonder if anyone has access to that kind of data (maybe Citadel would....).

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The strike prices to watch for are the ones that are OTM now. Those are the ones that are possibly naked. As the price crosses a strike price with a lot of naked calls, the call writers have to scramble to buy shares (or calls) to protect their position from massive losses, which causes a squeeze.

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Lopen posted...

So I mean DFV is likely going to exercise those contracts

Obtaining 50000 shares-- does that even move the stock price or is it a drop in the bucket?

I would be 99% sure whoever wrote those calls already hedged that position long ago, probably no later than last October when GME first crossed $12. If not they're in for a world of pain as they spend $9 million buying shares to cover calls they sold for $10k in premium.

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$190 is tough to swallow, yeah. I think the short squeeze potential is just a shadow of its former self too. The short interest is much lower, and the margin call point is probably much higher. Unless there are a lot of naked calls being sold out there, but that just seems stupid.

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Yeah, April 16 is the motherload for options expiry based on open interest right now. After that there are no significant expiries until July. If a gamma squeeze is going to happen, I'd expect it to happen next week or the week after that.

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https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1376576739854450693/photo/1

Per S3 Partners, after steadily sinking, GME short interest has been rising a bit again over the last week and a half. This graph was posted Monday during the day. Fintel data shows short volume of 27-29% in each of the days this week, which is substantially higher than it's usually been the past couple months, so I would guess that short interest is higher now than the graph shows.

My read on it is, long selling has largely dried up. For the price to stay below $200, a larger and larger percentage of the stock coming on the market for sale is from short sellers. But, the stock isn't moving up because few people are willing to pay $190/share for GME. So the volume just keeps going down.

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GME volume today was down to 8.3 million, the lowest since February 23, one day before it made that $50 -> $200 move.

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I feel like almost always I am not interested in buying Moonroof's picks, but I was absolutely interested in getting into Discovery since the big fall last week. Only I didn't know anything about DISCB!

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Of course it was a strange event. Some kind of short squeeze or maybe some people fighting for control of Discovery probably. But that kind of strange event is more likely to happen to the upside than the downside. I mean, at least compared to EVRI and PTON, both of which I think have major potential to fall a long long way (although it looks like you don't share my view on that).

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It's super low volume because it's the Series B (10 votes per share) stock. The company has a 19B market cap, but most of the volume is in DISCA. Without having actually confirmed this for Discovery specifically, usually you can convert the supervoting Series B stock to Series A stock if you want to (not that you would) so in the worst case it shouldn't go below DISCA, which has much higher volume.

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I actually don't think that trade was any riskier than putting 97k on EVRI or PTON. Less risky, if anything. It just paid off immediately.

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You put 97k into DISCB? Oh wow, what a trade. That is some insane luck.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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What on earth is going on with DISCB and why is nothing happening to DISCA?

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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An elected politician has been chosen by his or her constituents to represent them. A civil or criminal case against the politician could distract them from their work, or, in extreme cases, even make it impossible for them to continue their service, which would disenfrancise their constituents. Should all elected politicians therefore be granted immunity from the law?

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