Lurker > red sox 777

Yeah, getting kids out the door at 18 probably costs American families a boatload of money on average. It seems to be a relic of an earlier time when property and rent were cheap and wages were high.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

On a slightly related note, the three companies I most want to invest in are all private:

SpaceX
Fidelity
In-N-Out

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Lopen posted...

I guess the difference to me is the potential risks of bitcoin tanking (government regulation, different crypto winning out, discovered flaw in algorithm, loss of public faith in crypto, etc) are far far more realistic than an established multi billion or trillion dollar company randomly deciding to colonize Mars.

I actually chose that one because I'm pretty sure that's the exact reason Elon hasn't taken SpaceX public. He doesn't think the public shareholders would align with his long term vision of interplanetary expansion.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Colegreen_c12 posted...

Red Sox I think you are making a fundamental misunderstanding. As a shareholder im ok as long as I make as much money as possible.

As long as the company/controlling interest is doing what it believes is best to achieve that i'm fine with it.

If that means no dividends because they have better use of it elsewhere i'm fine with that since it means the value will go up.
If they think that no dividends is better for them but I disagree but the market agrees or is neutral I might sell the stock and move elsewhere but that's just because I don't believe in the company anymore, nothing to do with best interest.
If they think that no dividend is better and the market vehemently disagrees and the price tanks then you get into lawsuit territory that likely ends with them reversing the decision.

Whether the company is controlled by one person or many my stance in all of those scenarios is the exact same. At the end of the day its about the company, its underlying's and expectations of the future. I will not agree with every decision but I bought a stock, not a whole company.

I'm also okay with it. Just, if I owned FB or GOOG (and I have at various points in the past), and suddenly the founders decide they don't care what the market thinks in the short run, they are embarking on a 60 year plan to reinvest all their earnings into colonizing Mars - well, if the stock tanks, I'm not going to complain or be filing a shareholder lawsuit. That is the risk of owning that stock.

Just like there's a risk that people collectively stop believing in bitcoin. That takes more than one person changing his mind, so one could even imagine it being less risky (I don't think it is with crypto specifically).

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Colegreen_c12 posted...

False. Look up Fiduciary Duty. The other shareholders would have a right to sue him at this point

Look at the business judgment rule. It's virtually impossible to beat. As long as he says that in his business judgment, this course of action is best for the shareholders, a court is not going to second guess him. And it's very easy for him to justify it - legally he doesn't have to justify it beyond saying that is his honest opinion, but if he wanted to, he could say that in his opinion, Facebook can invest the money better by funding growth inside the company than he thinks can be done outside the company on the market. Warren Buffett has said exactly that for nearly 60 years with Berkshire Hathaway. People haven't complained because he's been right, but if he had turned out to be wrong, they still wouldn't be able to win a lawsuit against him on that.

Henry Ford made the mistake, 100ish years ago, of admitting that his actions were in the interest of employees, not shareholders. So he lost his case. No one is going to admit that now.


---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ChainLTTP posted...

Gamestop?

Gamestop is a great example. It had bad management who were running the company into the ground. Some activist investors looked at it and thought that it would have a lot more value with better management, so they bought the stock. Now they are on the board, and the stock has gone way up, anticipating the turnaround the new management will bring. The free market at work.

Note that this kind of thing would not be possible at Facebook or Google.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Put it this way - if Zuckerberg announced tomorrow that his intention is that Facebook will not issue a dividend as long as he lives no matter what, the stock price would probably fall significantly as people reevaluate whether they really want to be invested in a company that is not going to generate a cent of income for them for 60+ years. Sure, it's not in his interest to make that announcement, but he could do it, and there would be nothing anyone could do about it.

My point is that it's completely normal for the value of an investment to depend on the actions and beliefs of others. There's nothing irrational about that. And in normal circumstances, market participants are willing to tolerate quite a lot of this.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

The founders can indeed hold their shares forever. If they have any material wants, they can authorize officer loans from the company to themselves, secured by some of their shares. That's actually better than paying dividends as they don't incur taxes. Alternately, they can award themselves stock options for their work in regular common stock and sell those. There is no need to ever pay dividends.

I mean I am not saying that FB and GOOG are that similar to crypto, just that there is a reality that valuation is largely based on collective imagination. Nothing wrong with that. It's how humans do things and perfectly rational too.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

And for people who think crypto is purely imaginary, let me explain something about Facebook and Google. Both of these companies have another class of stock which is held by the founders and has super voting rights, such that the founders retain majority voting power. Because the founders can never be outvoted, even by someone who purchases all of the common stock on the market, the common stock effectively has no meaningful voting power.

So what does the common stock entitle you to? Well - you have the right to be paid dividends when the board decides to pay dividends. That is, the board can't pay dividends to some shareholders and not others. But wait, these companies have never paid dividends. Because their boards have never voted to pay them. And the boards are selected by the founders, who have majority voting power, forever.

So I ask you, what exactly is the value of FB or GOOG (or GOOGL) stock? No voting, no dividends....it seems to me like the only value is the value we collectively impute to it. Just like crypto.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Crypto is much easier to divide than gold.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

The play, to me, is this: Gold currently has a total market gap north of around 10 trillion. Bitcoin currently has a market cap of around 1 trillion. In the world where cryptocurrencies replace precious metals, you would expect to see BTC reach the market cap of gold and the total crypto market cap reach the total market cap of precious metals.

If we get a bubble, during the bubble peak the value of crypto can far exceed the current value of precious metals. There some additional positive considerations in that the value of precious metals would likely be rising but for the increased competition from crypto and that at least with BTC, there is probably a substantial percentage of it that has already been permanently lost, meaning the actual current market cap is lower than the apparent one and there is more room to grow. To the extent that cryptocurrency is more useful/scarce than gold and precious metals, the value could also be higher.

Finally, crypto provides some diversification. Assets within an asset class tend to move together, and truth be told, there are really only 2 asset classes that historically have been good investments - stocks and real estate. Precious metals and bonds have never really been good investments due to low returns. Crypto, at least for now, provides an opportunity to invest in a 3rd high return asset class that has little correlation to the other 2 (stocks and real estate).

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Crypto doing great. I am really liking the negativity (about stocks) here actually....a sign that the correction may soon end.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I think KO is undervalued. Would invest in it except that I'm going after aggressive growth and am not that happy with a 10% gain per year.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Market red again but GME over $200 on news they've hired another Amazon executive.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Vote away!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Our top two now compete in this runoff for the title of Best US President.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Our top 2 now compete in a runoff for the title of worst president.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

Hes explained this before

If he breaks the law when protecting his own life, he deserves to go to jail.

Maybe it would be easier if we just said that everyone deserves to go to jail. Just criminalize existing. Then no one could complain.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

masterplum posted...

I guess the beat way to put it, is if all my money is in index funds and my stocks go down its the markets problem, but if I try to manage all my investments and my stocks go down its my problem.

And that extra feel bad is not feeling worth it right now

It is always your problem, and it is never the market's problem. The market will not care one iota if you lose money, or what you invested in.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

masterplum posted...

Panicked is definitely the wrong word. Exhausted is closer, and questioning if I want to invest the time and effort into trying to beat the market when I have so far been unsuccessful and almost everyone cant is closest.

I havent actually sold much, but I have no enthusiasm of trying to push money around different loser stocks.

And for the record I encouraged Moonroof to put all of his money in an index fund!

It doesn't take that much time and effort to buy and hold long term. Where most of the work comes in is trying to play short term fluctuations. That work is both time and energy intensive and is very difficult.

If you started trading individual stocks 2 months ago, that was around a market high (at least for tech/growth). Don't let your view of the relative merits of buying individual stocks vs. broad indices be colored by the timing of the entry point.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Theoretically if you have no sense of the direction of the market other than that it goes up in the long run it's better to throw it in all at once. That said, I've come around to dollar cost averaging as being psychologically much easier to handle.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

GME volume has dried up again. Our next megabatch of calls expiring is 4/16.

masterplum posted...

Im about ready to throw in the towel and go to index funds. Just been nothing but big losses after making $6,000 on AMC. Lost all of it by now

It's been 2 months. If you believe in the companies it seems like a bad time to sell.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I would not invest in property in California at this time. If it becomes less affordable in a year or two because the interest rates go up, that is going to affect everyone else too - and that tends to put downward pressure on the price. So you'd have a low interest rate locked in, but if you want to leave the area, you might not turn a profit on the sale.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

StartTheMachine posted...

Put that money into IEA instead and thank me when you're $100,000 richer in 2 to 6 months.

I won't even go into the research and the catalysts it has because it probably won't work on you. So instead for something that might: just look at the charts. EVRI has never been over 20. IEA was literally just at 23. I don't pay too much attention to these, but a quick google search shows almost every financial investment site has EVRI at hold and IEA at buy. Motley Fool really likes them especially and has a few glowing pieces on them.

Okay I think those are the things that you care about. Trust me on this one. You bought the riskiest stock I ever brought up here so buy the safest and thank me when I more than make up for the money you lost there.

also as an aside I own exactly 1 share of IEA (just to watch it without clicking my watchlist, lol) and am in on the warrants. bigly in

I'm interested in the research. In particular - why is it so much higher now than it was before the pandemic in 2020?

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Also, got a little bit of cash coming in so I welcome the dip as an opportunity to buy more stocks today.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

VIAC and DISCA are super short term plays to make money off the margin call. Trouble is, the banks might not be finished liquidating that fund's position. Hard to tell.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Sunroof posted...

So you can sell mid-contract? Why not just pick a very far expiry date in hopes that eventually the price goes below your strike price, thus cushioning your odds?

The farther out the contract, the more expensive the premium will be.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Not really seeing it. Unlike 1934, the US government wants the value of the dollar to go down this time, so that the value of stocks and real estate can keep going up. BTC is a competitor with gold, not with the dollar. The dollar is a horrible store of value, by design, and BTC is a horrible medium of exchange due to its volatility.

As far as the environment, as I've said before, I think we're going to innovate our way out of the problem. We have already made a lot of progress on that front and judging by the price of electric vehicle and energy company stocks, the stock market seems to think the big shift is coming within a few years.

If we don't do that, we are in all likelihood not going to escape the problem at all because "dieting" our energy usage is never going to work.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Huh, that was a really nice final hour. Really wasn't expecting to end up green today.

So I will say, I have been thinking about why investors like Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood generally do not sell options. I think it's because they have high confidence in their stock picks, enough confidence that their stocks are going to go up that the option premiums are not high enough for selling covered calls to gain EV. If the options market expects a stock to rise 20%, and you expect it to rise 100%, and a call buyer is willing to pay you a premium that would be fairly valued if the stock were to go up 30% on average, then selling the option is +EV if the market is right about its valuation but it is -EV if you are right.

And, ultimately, you make money if you are right. If you want to make big returns, you have to be right. You have fun by testing if you are right. So selling options for a small stream of income just doesn't appeal to me.

Zachnorn posted...

oh man that last NASDAQ surge did wonders for my NASDAQ heavy portfolio

Nice gain for me today, even if I'm still down overall since I started playing with stocks 2 month ago. Today might have been my highest single day dollar increase.

*Checks the date*

Yup, I'm down from 2 months ago. I think most people here are or at least will be down for the 2 month period on Monday (Jan 27 was the big surge day for AMC).

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Sunroof posted...

What is the difference between selling the put versus exercising? I thought you just wait until the expiry date and it auto exercises if the strike price hits.

You can do that, but you can also sell it early. For example, if you think the stock has fallen enough and it will go up - then you want to sell the put to lock in your profits.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Oh wait, sorry, you wouldn't make 13k if it went to $90, it would be more like $5,200 less the premium. So net profit of $4,228. For some reason I thought you had 10 contracts instead of 4.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

For each dollar X under $103 it goes, you make 400X. That's assuming you exercise and sell your newly acquired shares on the market at the market price. In almost all situations, you will do at least as well and sometimes better than that by selling the put instead of exercising.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

If the stock goes down, you can just buy the stock on the market at an even lower price.

With selling puts and holding cash, compared to holding the stock, you win if the stock doesn't go up or down a lot.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Moonroof, you realize you can lose just as much (less the premium) by selling puts as you can owning the stock right? It's your gains that are capped.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1375448566865485833?s=21

This idea sucks

This idea sucks. Mayor Pete has let me down. Here I was thinking he was nice.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Who was the worst president?

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Who was the best?

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Vote away!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

The government has indeed told every business in the country they cannot kick people out for breaking certain internal corporate rules. If those rules are contrary to law, and the law is not contrary to the Constitution.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Well, if the odds are against you, the best move is not to play at all. If the odds are in your favor, then you generally want to play more. In general, you can have plenty of fun in the market exclusively buying stocks where you think the odds are in your favor, so I don't see the need to ever use the model you would for playing a negative expectation game at a casino.

At a casino, the odds are against you so you want to end the game quickly so you can stop exposing your money to the house edge. Intuitively, you are thinking, if I continue playing forever I am going to lose all my money. And that's accurate. So you want to stop both gains and losses quickly. But if the odds are in your favor, that calls for a different approach.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Looks like ARKX is launching on Monday. Good, my space stocks could use a boost!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ExThaNemesis posted...

Good thing for me my very first market exposure was like a 80% loss lmfao

Probably a net positive in the long run. Better to learn the FOMO lesson with thousands rather than hundreds of thousands.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Zachnorn posted...

I'm considering putting in another 4k into my account and buying up some of these NASDAQ stocks while they're cheap and setting up 5-7% stop losses in case they drop too much more. Looking at my portfolio, my losers that wiped out my gains in other stocks were the ones I didn't put such a stop loss in so they fell 15-25%.

I don't understand options and don't want to play with something I don't understand yet. "Buy low, sell high, get dividends if you own it long enough" is something my small stock market brain can understand though.

Going back to this, I would suggest not setting stop losses, basically ever. If you think a stock is a good investment at a certain price, why would it be a good sell at a price 7% lower? Unless you think something has changed about the company or the market, the price going down is a reason to buy, not sell.

If you're not comfortable having a lot of money at risk without a stop loss to limit losses, that's a sign maybe the initial purchase price was too high, or you haven't diversified enough. With a stop loss, you will likely lose the amount of the stop loss on most trades, and 5-7% itself is not that big, but repeat a few times and it can become quite big. You can lose money even while the stocks you are investing in are flat or even going up, because you are missing out on the gains while eating the losses.

Stocks falling 15-25% is normal. Warren Buffett has said (paraphrasing) that if you aren't emotionally able to handle a 50% drop in your stocks, investing probably isn't for you.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Ryan Cohen is I think the single largest shareholder of GME. He's the one who kicked off this crazy run by buying 13% of the company and getting himself placed on the board. Effectively he's running GME now.

He tweeted what looks like a gif of a teddy bear coughing. This is um, the least cryptic one of his tweets I think. Think it means bears are in trouble.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Ah Ryan Cohen tweeted about an hour ago.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

GME at $183 - we're higher than before the earnings release now.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Green for the day, still down a lot from yesterday's bloodbath as well.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

GME! Great to see +37% today.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I'd rather own stocks and invest in America. Much more upside!

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Sunroof posted...

* Do you pay a premium up front in buying both puts AND calls?

Yes

* Do you own the stock if the strike price does not hit in buying both puts AND calls?

Depends. You could own or not own the stock independently of whether you own options. Buying options never obligates you to own the stock.

* You only make money if the strike prices hit in buying both puts AND calls?

If you are holding to expiration, yes. It's possible to profit by closing out of the money options during a short term spike in their price. For example, a GME $30 put probably saw its price increase a lot between when GME plunged from $100 to $50. If you kept holding it it would never have crossed the strike price but if you sold it when the stock had just plunged to $50 you probably made money.

* Your goal is to have a wide gap between the strike and closing prices in buying both puts AND calls?

Yes.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!