Lurker > Crossfiyah

Late to the party but Origami King was trash.

Ori.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Water: Creedence Clearwater Revival - Have You Ever Seen The Rain?

lmao water. Okay.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

It was and it probably is.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

RaidenGarai posted...

He claims he doesn't care, but it's so obvious that he does.

Ulti desperately wants to live in a world where this stuff is true because his real life is that boring and underwhelming.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I still don't think Pa is gonna be close enough for a recount.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

https://twitter.com/MrTooDamnChris/status/1324736864511614976

Oh my

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

UshiromiyaEva posted...

As the clarity of waking up to double flips hits, it also appears that the story that Putin is stepping down from last night may actually have been real.

Well when the CEO fucks up something this badly they tend to step down.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I really expect Trump to just fire the whole Executive branch and leave us without a government for 2 months.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

LMAO who's that one person just laying on the floor.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Jakyl if I ever have a podcast can I hire you to title the episodes?

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

A 66-32 Forsyth county in Georgia for Trump went 49-47 in mail-ins.

He's done.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I seriously don't know how you people come up with such great titles.

Is there a history of all of the names somewhere?

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR19ksNF0mAKMcLQidewtnl4ghOiN_XgVc4Xe_9SMS5-iI_BrA7vmKM5aiY

Trump isn't even on pace in AZ either right now. We'll see the next Maricopa drop but he's behind now.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324474674521219073

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Xeybozn posted...

I've been seeing this everywhere, but where does the idea that 2022 is a good Senate map for Dems come from? Look at the seats that are up that year:

Democrats: AZ, CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MD, NH, NV, NY, OR, VT, WA (13 seats, 3 competitive)

Republicans: AK, AL, AR, FL, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, UT, WI (20 seats, 4 competitive)

???: GA (1 seat, competitive)

It's not impossible for the Dems to gain seats, but most of the "competitive" seats are in states that lean Republican to begin with. Add in the awful track record for Democratic turnout in midterm elections, and it looks to me like they'd be lucky just to end up not losing seats. Am I missing something?

Most of the competitive R seats barely scraped by with Trump's help.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Inviso posted...

Don't get your hopes up.

Unless Trump wins reelection, Biden will catch all the blame for everything in the next two years, and Dems will feel disillusioned because they don't unequivocally hate Republicans the way Republicans hate Democrats, and a Senate map that we managed to get +1 in 2016 will wind up likely costing us senators again. Not to mention inevitably losing the House.

Keep in mind that could include curing a global pandemic and an economic rebound.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Really curious to see how 2022 goes. Rs especially vulnerable in the Senate.

2018 vs. 2020 seems to prove that Trump not on the ballot DOES make a difference to a ton of his voters coming out and if Dems retain the suburbs with a relatively-stable 2 years, GOP might be looking at an unfavorable midterm result.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

That's fine. Just ask yourself honestly if you would take the bet if there were no issues around being able to do it. And in the hypothetical you can make the amount of money small enough so that you aren't really risk averse. If you are comfortable with a bet with those odds, I have no problem with you expressing a statement that someone will win with that probability. If not, well, I've been kind of annoyed for years in contest matches about people calling things 100% locks and being wrong 15% of the time. They know those things are not really 100% locks, they just say 100% instead of 85%.

Oh I for sure would no question.

I'd have also put money on Georgia after the NYT needle flipped to +0.4 on election night and I'd still feel pretty good about it.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I don't think I'm legally allowed to bet on elections given my profession.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I get being cautious but...nothing I have seen for two days puts PA into question.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Nobody:

Absolutely nobody:

red sox 777: Here's how Trump can still win

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Literally the Secretary of State of PA said 550k outstanding not long ago.


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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Another 10k votes added to outstanding Georgia total. Biden only needs 63% margin now.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik7 posted...

The last Fulton update was only 55% Biden

No it wasn't? Per 538 at 11:48 AM

"In Georgia, ballots continue to trickle in. Deep-blue Fulton County (where much of Atlanta proper is) just reported another 6,000 or so votes, 76 percent of which went for Biden. This took Trumps statewide edge from 0.4 points to 0.3 points. Hard to say just how many votes are left to report we last heard around 60,000 an hour or so ago but we know Biden needed to win probably 62 percent or more of those to take the narrowest of leads. The new votes from Fulton surpass that mark."


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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Still not seeing anything percentage wise that indicates Biden won't eclipse Trump narrowly. He needs to hit 65% or so average and the last drop was like 76%.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Mail in ballots are much bluer than the average.

The weighted average is like +19 Dem alone.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Wow it really seems like Biden will carry Georgia at this rate.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

They're more confident that the remaining vote favors Biden by enough than ABC or NYT is.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Georgia seems completely within reach at this point. What a plot twist.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

It seems weird to me that they don't have an odd number for the electoral college to avoid a tie.

Even number of states makes that kind of hard doesn't it.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Nate Cohn seems to think Biden's on track for taking the lead:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324091547399409667

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

NYT ticker still shows Biden winning Georgia. I'm anxious to see how it plays out.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Not all of them. Some close at 7.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

Yeah, Rs aren't getting to 400k unless this AWV thing is real and powerful. I question the whole premise of Biden winning big with independents, but it doesn't look like Trump can afford to lose big there.

Trump winning Florida by less than 1% also would not inspire confidence for the rest of the nation. I think he really wants to outdo his +1.2% from 2016 to make it look like he has a chance nationally...

He'd almost certainly need to with how far apart Florida and WI/MI/PA have been in polling.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Another update on Broward county.

From 3pm to 4pm, Broward was D41/R26/I33 (D +15).

Trend seems to be getting more D as the day goes by. Waiting to see what happens after 5 pm but this does not inspire confidence that Rs will reach that magical +400k party ID bulwark by the time polls close.


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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I haven't seen anything that makes think Biden has definitely won Florida yet but also nothing that particularly concerns me.

Which is a good place to be when you're leading the polls I guess.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Not sure by which metric you decide Trump's the favorite in Florida either.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

All these early-vote-by-party analyses are completely pointless, the NPA vote is what's going to decide this thing.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

The party identification in FL has grown MORE D since this morning by day-of vote, not less. How do you figure that?

Example, Broward county:

From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)

From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)

From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1323695517961015298?s=21

Here are the most up-to-date numbers I was able to find by turnout of party identification

GOP: 3,946,914 (+136,649)
Dem: 3,810,265
NPA/Other: 2,358,054

TOTAL: 10,115,233 across FL.

Per my understanding of polling averages of R crossover and NPA lean, GOP needs a +400k margin lead to survive the final numbers. And they're stuck at less than half that.


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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Your numbers seem really off then or assume literally no R crossover.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

They're both cash grabs.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Your problem is you're conflating Hillary's margin with party identification.

If Indepedents break for Biden 49-41 he's outperforming her margin.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

That includes the mail in votes. I'd say that's quite good for Trump.

Independents and cross-over Rs both favor Biden based on polling.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Because it was an obvious cash grab.

This should have been a collection of all 3 games not just an overpriced release of Pikmin 3.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

PredictIt odds as of morning of election day - notice the big shift towards Trump in the Sunbelt states over the last 2 days (Arizona crossed over 50% overnight).

Iowa - Trump 77%
Ohio - Trump 75%
Texas - Trump 75%
Georgia - Trump 65%
Florida - Trump 64%
North Carolina - Trump 57%
Arizona - Trump 53%
Pennsylvania - Biden 62%
Michigan - Biden 72%
Wisconsin - Biden 73%
Nevada - Biden 75%
Minnesota - Biden 77%
New Hampshire - Biden 79%

PredictIt largely is fueled by RCP averages which are largely driven by bad pollsters in those states.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Oh are we doing prediction maps?

https://www.270towin.com/maps/vpzmw

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

foolm0r0n posted...

It's an orthogonal issue. You'll prob find all kinds of opinions on it. The L party is never gonna get enough votes for it to matter, and if they do, then indeed it will be due to EC shenanigans. But that's not where my opinion comes from.

Personally I just like "minority rule". Statists preach about how popular vote is the defining characteristic of democracy, but it's not - protection of the minority is. To what extent the EC does that is arguable, especially since it's at the state level which is not granular enough to really protect minority interests, and it demands ignoring all but the most battlegroundy states. But popular vote is not better in those regards. A good hint that you're totally missing the point is if you think senators should also scale based on population.

That's really idiotic.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

If you cut off a friendship over politics, you have something seriously wrong with you. That is cult behavior. Miss me with that nonsense. I happily talk with anyone from any walk of life. You beat bad ideas with good ideas, not with youre an asshole and I will dig my heels in and never talk to you again.

Friendly reminder Ulti unfriended me on Facebook because I called him on his racist, right-wing bullshit AND has me blocked on here because he's too inarticulate to offer any defense of his opinions.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik7 posted...

From your link.

Between the lines: Trump advisers are more optimistic about winning than they were three weeks ago, based on my conversations with multiple senior campaign officials over the past week, including two officials with direct knowledge of sensitive internal data.
They said analyses of early-vote totals in battleground states indicate he's doing substantially worse in Iowa and Georgia compared with this point in 2016, but better than expected in Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Just a few weeks ago, senior Trump advisers were bearish about Wisconsin and had reduced TV advertising there to an insignificant figure. A senior campaign official told me, then, that the state didn't figure in his paths to 270 electoral votes.
But that appears to have changed. In recent days, senior Trump advisers have privately expressed growing optimism about Wisconsin, based on their analysis of early vote data.

I would be curious to see what data they have regarding this.

if they're drawing conclusions from early vote data they're in for a particularly rude awakening.

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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"