Lurker > The_Ctes

So you don't get these badges now unless you're an official entry or what? I got one for finishing in the top 100 last time, but I don't have anything now despite being on both leaderboards. That's a shame, as an European who can't make an official entry, I enjoyed the badge.

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Quarter-Finals Day 38
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 56.53%
Persona 5 43.47%

Prediction Percentage 39.23%

This match had been hyped a lot throughout the contest, a lot more than it should have. The Witcher 3 looked like a clear favorite to the finals every passing round, but Persona 5 proved to be strong and thats all it needed to do for people to feel like it had a chance. Most people took The Witcher 3 to win rather easily, but Persona 5 had a vocal minority of people believing it could do this and a large group of people hoping it could.

The fans are incredibly passionate about their game. A few times so passionate it annoyed me which is unusual, but at times it was borderline obnoxious. It seemed like Persona 5 could only do well. I see the franchise mentioned as the star of the contest often, and I mean, Persona 4 Golden impressed sure, but the fifth one? It did good, but when something does exactly like almost everyone expected you to every single round and that is completely inline with pre-contest expectations, then Im not going to call that star of anything.

The most annoying part was that it was praised every single round as if it exceeded any expectations. People were thinking it would be a challenge for Witcher 3 to get out of this match. Witcher 3 looked overly dominant every round and it was only enough for people to accept it was the favorite today despite, you know, being the guru favorite to win this match. You didnt see Dark Souls or Skyrim treated that way. Witcher 3 won this match easily despite Persona 5 rallying a bit and the reaction was that Persona 5 looked so impressive going out despite not living up to the expectations of challenging Witcher 3 at all and looking like the weakest of the division winners in this half of the bracket. There were so many claims that both games here were better than the two in the next match and that this match would be closer than the semi-final. Being happy your favorite games does well and hoping they do better is everything these contests are about, and thats cool, but lets not go from there to acting like Persona 5 did anything we didnt think it would.

Alright, with that out of the way, lets switch to positive thoughts. I hope you all know that Im targeting a small but loud group here. Persona 5 deserves a lot of respect for how far it advanced the franchise and for how good a game it is. Its pretty clearly a top 8 game in the bracket and thats far from where it used to be. It has moved out of obscurity and placed itself as a top franchise with the latest game being a huge success. Now that aspect of it is impressive.

The passionate fans made as big an attempt as they could. From when the match began, Persona 5 rallied full force. It looks to be around 600 votes give or take by the end of the match, but it seemed like full force at first. On top of that, Persona 5 has a fantastic board vote and Witcher 3 does not, so the opening minutes were entertaining. When the match opened, Persona 5 stormed out the gate leading big time and it kept the lead for a few minutes. Then they were tied basically the rest of the time until the freeze. Witcher 3 would gain next update, but after that it stood still for some updates. The board vote was definitely still in full effect. Witcher 3 made two decent jumps at the :30 and :35 updates, and it this point it seemed like the board vote and rally rush was over and that Witcher 3 would rise to heaven.

I made that claim myself in the stats topic. The next thing that happened was the opposite. Persona 5 cut from 83 to 61 and suddenly I looked stupid lol. You can imagine you something like the stats topic reacted to such an upside judging by some of the earlier paragraphs here, Im sure, but it looked like there was hope at that point if you thought the rallied could be kept up. Then Witcher 3 doubled its lead next update and that was the match. Witcher 3 rose a lot from there, especially once rallies stopped being effective and people realized victory for Persona 5 was out of the question.

Im excited to see the Persona games in future contests. Im not sure theres much point of anything before the fourth one returning. We had high expectations for the third one in 2015 and it completely failed to live up to them. Persona 5 especially will be fun to see in the regular field again. I really hope Atlus can keep up the level of quality. Its impressive how large a jump theyve done with every game up until now, hopefully that continues.

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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.

29th place here. I got

64 for BotW
55 for Witcher 3
60 for BotW


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Not sure why I bother but

Yuri_LowelI posted...

No Undertale Beating Pokemon Red, Mario 64 and OoT is fucking ridiculous

So excuse me if i'm not showing any sympathy for this fucking game.

If this is how you feel, why is it hard to imagine Undertale was antivoted

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charmander6000 posted...

It's a thing, but it's also being exaggerated. First you aren't taking into account the exposure it got leading to people playing it and liking it (new fans) and second anti-voters voting for a game they already like or care enough over a game they never heard or cared about aren't anti-voters.

I believe I never stated the second part.

I must also add that I don't actually think +20% of voters did so, but I'd be damn surprised if the antivoting didn't flip the result when it was that close. It's definitely a good part.

The exposure part is true, but OoT and FF are to some part antivoted from being previous winners, so there's also that.

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Anagram posted...

I plan to play this after finishing FETH, AAI2, the Castlevania Netflix series, and all of my homework.

Sounds like why I haven't played that many games this decade lol

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So? It's not like Galaxy was a game for casuals more so than Odyssey.

Console sales have never been very deciding unless we're talking extreme cases like the Wii U. Moreso, the games themselves matter much more than the console they are on. Odyssey is doing well because it's a fantastic game first and foremost, not because it's a Switch game.

This site has shown countless times how much values nostalgia, the average user grew up in the 90s. It's definitely bold to state that being on the Switch means you'll be that strong.

People are surprised here partially because fellow Switch Ultimate did worse on a game believed to be weaker and Smash has stronger than Mario every console except N64.

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When the DS and Wii were breaking all records, it didn't seem to prevent us from heavily favoring the 90s

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Bold to assume this site would pick Odyssey above 3, World and 64

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LeonhartFour posted...

Mega Man was in the base game!

Yeah okay, I missed the DLC part I admit.

I do think Bayonetta and maybe Ryu and Mewtwo were cared for too though.

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Octopath is barely gaining

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It was reasonable to assume after Donkey Kong looked so good in 2018 that maybe he could pull this off.

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People definitely cared about Mega Man

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I think Undertale gets back from this. Its votes should be worst with us I believe.

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davidponte posted...

oh ya go my Shovel Knight round 2 pick

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

All the old polls disappeared.

You just go back a month

Talk about getting ninjad

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This is among the more boring times I've refreshed gamefaqs so much

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MechanicalWall posted...

Mario could easily have justified a 1 seed lmao

Yeah, I'd have picked Odyssey out of the division in a fair share of them.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Well, it is pretty par for the course for Undertale. This was what it worked with for the first two rounds in 2015.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/bge15/043.jpg

I'd say that was a lot better.

I barely even recognize this one as Undertale and I played it back then.

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Donkey Kong sure didn't choke when I picked against the series in 2015 and 2018.

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Considering how awful SANS did last contest and Draven too, I certainly believe Undertale will be heavily antivoted. I just struggle to see Octopath Traveler being good enough to win against it.

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Master Moltar posted...

transience gets the point for RE2 and Bloodborne

Uhh, Guest should have the point for Bloodborne.

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Nothing against Dota, but I don't expect a game like that to be worth anything here. I was certain Minecraft would take this and I'm certain Spider Man can beat Minecraft unless some great rally actually happens.

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Gall posted...

There's some room for error when it comes to Call of Duty, but 17% is a bit much. I think we can agree that this is not the same Bloodborne.

I mean, it's not just CoD. 2010 AC2 looks like it would more than doubles 2015 AC2 and it probably looks even worse now. That's the kind of spiral you should expect Call of Duty to slide down to as well. They fell a lot. Especially when it's Black Ops and not Modern Warfare. MW was videly respected, BO more just among the fanbase and there are like none of those here anymore.

I mean, I think Bloodborne has reason to be better too, but I don't doubt for a second CoD is a lot worse now.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Not bad, Bayonetta may end up looking decent!

Shame that it's gonna get buried beneath two layers of Nintendo SFF.

I don't think the SFF will be too bad honestly. Bigger shame is that it was wasted in such a predictable yet strong fourpack.

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I almost made the call earlier that SND would probably throw away another point.

Poor Guest, oh well

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SantaRPidgey posted...

TTYD on switch I will pay any price

This. Charge full price and I'll still buy without a thought.

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Seems we dislike Dota a bit more than most do

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Gall posted...

its come a long way since 2015. I wouldnt want to be its opponent in a debated match, which brings me to:

It's not the same Call of Duty for one thing. Modern Warfare has always been stronger, there's a reason it was the one to be in the last BGE. Second, it had already fallen a lot from 10 to 15, there's every reason to believe it fell even harder 5 years later. Maybe Bloodborne rose, but that result is not at all only because of that.

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Nameless2000 posted...

If you like Tekken, you hate Smash Bros.

If you like Smash Bros., you probably don't care about Tekken.

I like both

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I can hope!

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Super Mario 64 with a properly functional camera would be amazing.

That game has not aged well in my book, I used to love it.

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Well, Nintendo can still show the direct as they've done for years.

Also, Color Splash was a fun game. The first two are leagues away, but still.

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Heihachi was a costume in SSB4 right?

Also, hell yeah, taking the accuracy point on Bloodborne / Call of Duty! I almost fully credit this to Call of Duty being awful, but I wasn't sure about Awakening > Bloodborne to begin with.

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Uncharted 4 to round 3 would be 3 points I would absolutely love not getting.

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I don't think that's necessarily bad.

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The_Ctes posted...

Was pretty sure Fortnite would lose hard here. Took Horizon very high in the oracle.

As it turns out, I apparently didn't... I remember doing them and copy/pasting my percentage for Bloodborne into my crew write-up, but it would appear I didn't actually post it here, or some error happened or whatever. That sucks >_>
I only learned this because I wanted to check how close I actually was, so at this that means I don't miss tomorrow as well. I had Horizon at 80.something, so much for that.

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Fallout isn't stopping

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MechanicalWall posted...

Not all indies are born the same. Hollow Knight very easily could in the top 3 or 5 strongest indies in the bracket. I highly doubt V has the same sauce.

I agree.

That didn't stop people from worrying about this match.

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Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.

If you wanna stay on the "indies are so legit now train", then Fallout looks great.

But I believe Berseria and TWD to be that weak as well. It might not mean much. RE is certainly a good brand name.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Horizon/Fortnite says more about Fortnite's strength than anything else.

Borderlands looks like it's getting exposed though, which matters more.

Yeah, precontest I thought Horizon would do fine based on good GotY showing here and being rather liked and hopefully recent enough to not have been forgotten entirely while I expected BL2 to have fallen from grace quite a bit.

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Also, does our board dislike Mass Effect now? Even 2? Or does RE have a really good board vote? Even 7?

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I didn't think twice about Horizon > BL2 really.

Man, board 8 was all aboard the indie train

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Was pretty sure Fortnite would lose hard here. Took Horizon very high in the oracle.

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Some board votes

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Well, alright I suppose, but it sure isn't by as much as out usual examples.

Also this:
Kenri posted...

What in the world

That's a neat touch I never knew about!

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Probably nothing, but I might pick it because I think it'd draw more of the voters that has to vote for every match than I think BD would. It stands out more.

I might also not pick it. I don't know. But I fail to see BD being worth much more.

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It's just as hard for me to believe BD is worth anything.

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I played some ARMS and I don't see how Spring Man is any more main character than Ribbon Girl. What makes him that?

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Nintendogs posted...

Sounds like Minecraft sucks here then if it failed against a worthless series.

It absolutely does. Halo had fallen off a major cliff in 2015, it looked terrible next round too.

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