Lurker > Tohoya

It's not just the Senate, it's...

-control of state legislatures, who gerrymander the house and pass voter suppression laws, which allows them to
-control the presidency and the Senate, who can
-appoint sympathetic supreme court justices who
-rubberstamp the state's voter suppression.

It's a closed loop and the only hope, really, was that a generational fuckup of a candidate would happen to drag down Republicans in a year where redistricting was on the line. This loop is why some democrats were so adamant about court packing. It was the only way to stop Republicans from running away with the game.

It's all just playing out the string now.

red sox 777 posted...

That's fine. Just ask yourself honestly if you would take the bet if there were no issues around being able to do it. And in the hypothetical you can make the amount of money small enough so that you aren't really risk averse. If you are comfortable with a bet with those odds, I have no problem with you expressing a statement that someone will win with that probability. If not, well, I've been kind of annoyed for years in contest matches about people calling things 100% locks and being wrong 15% of the time. They know those things are not really 100% locks, they just say 100% instead of 85%.

I would bet on Trump, because if he wins at least I'll get a huge payday as consolation and spend it on a yacht or something.

Also, we know that states targeted for voter suppression tend to have enthusiastic turnout in the next election, at least if it gets any kind of attention. Wisconsin's been marinating in it since April, when a Republican judge ruled that ballots had to be in by election day, instead of postmarked by election day. (Not voter suppression in most circumstances, but here it was done very close to the election, with some people already having sent ballots that would likely not arrive by election day). Dems won that one big, mostly off of the turnout boost that the debate over the decision caused. It wouldn't be surprising if Wisconsin's turnout was up by a lot, even for this high turnout election. Same thing with Georgia.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Trump was never going to win Nevada.

Also: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1324093624611532800.html?

This is getting beyond fishy.

Wisconsin has election day registration, so there are now a ton of voters that are on the rolls that weren't when that registered voters number was generated. The final tally will show a much more reasonable turnout percentage.

This is giving me Mario v Crono flashbacks