Lurker > changmas

well IGCD can swap if he wants

it's fixed

Red'S VOTE ISNT SHOWING UP

guys is red's vote stolen

We had to solve the Todd problem

let's let IGCD vote at :58 and then no one vote after

<img src="https://y.yarn.co/c5a9b58d-7e00-4845-9920-40b06a400b58_text.gif">

big shocker death doesn't have a vote down 15 mins to go look who's bystanding again

alright then the plan works

oh wait ctes is your vig shot night only

TotallyNotMI posted...

MZero's role did say that the taunt lasted through the next day phase so there is a world where scum redirect would too

is it weird for MI to remember this off the top of his head as a vanilla?

did anyone else remember this

essentially we would trade two nightkills tonight for two daykills (including the lynch) tomorrow

No, he should shoot during the next day phase, not at night.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I thought IGCD could shoot tonight

if scum can still do redirection stuff it is far better for him to shoot during the day

Meow1000 posted...

The issue is if scum does have a redirect and can use it again they can completely wreck any advance planning.

how

PROPOSED PLAN IF YOU TRUST CTES AND IGCD ARE TOWN

IGCD gets to hammer today and earns his vig shot
ctes bets his life that IGCD is the nightkill to earn his vig shot

Scum is forced to either kill IGCD and confirm ctes town or let him be and ctes removes himself as a mislynch option

and town is guaranteed at least one vig shot tomorrow either way.

note that this does NOT guarantee that kirby roleblock will stop the kill, as scum can no kill or shoot into ctes anyway to conceal themselves, but it earns us a vig shot tomorrow guaranteed and we'll have two flips next day phase

Town
3. Chang
8. Kirby (can only be scum if ulti is also scum and they did something crazy)

99% Town
6. FD (1% scenario is that he intentionally sent to Red and then just lied about it lmao)
11. Ulti (I kind of agree with Kirby that Ulti would most likely send in kills, etc. if he were scum)

Town or some kind of 3p
7. IGCD (I mean, we could always just not let him hammer if we're that worried. He may just be nightkilled by scum after he achieves his condition. I have considered whether ctes' role (if he is truthful about it) can co-exist and I've decided they can. Neither player is probably above 50-50 odds of actually getting their vig shot so the average game outcome is probably less than one vig shot, which is fine).
1. Ben (I mean, Buddy's a little bit weird of a flavor claim but ultimately I think that's okay, and it's also ok if he's still hiding something he can do, which I suspect may be the case. If he's 3p, until he starts killing people I'm generally unconcerned with him at present)

with that out of the way:
____

Leaning town now
4. Ctes (He eventually got mad, though at us and not the role which is not exactly what I'd expect but it's getting close. The way the role functions I think can fit for town. I'm ok with it. I have a plan to propose for how to use it tonight but I'll get to that in a followup post)

50/50ish
9. MI (I'm more inclined to trust a single night roleblock than a cop scan at this point. While he couldn't have sent in the kills, he could be the bus driver / redirector assuming that role exists. I think his arguments and conclusions are a little outlandish and conspiratorial but that doesn't mean that they're fake)
10. Red (Red basically has nothing going for him in terms of roles, scans, or anything. Deep down I still feel like he's town but it's not a bad lynch today for info tbh)

Blade category
2. Blade (I'd like to see him stop a kill tbh. If he's actually a doctor I feel like he ought to be dead by now. See my plan in the next post. Frankly it's been annoying me on a personal level how it feels like he responds to almost every post I make and says something very obvious as though it's new information. He's also been setting up a mislynch on me later for a while now, which feels to me like setup for his team to win an endgame, though I imagine scum will have to kill me before that point anyway)

Scum prob
5. Death (Scans be damned. He got caught as a major bystander on yesterday's lynch and nothing about his answers for that today have seemed particularly impactful in addressing that. Voting to avoid a tie is crazy. Multiple people have said the scan is basically the only thing keeping their votes away, so I'm not sure that should be enough to keep him safe for much longer).

ok i am here for the rest of the day, typing up a post of thoughts it may take me a good 15 mins or so

not the kill command on lopen part though that's conspiracy theories

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I mean it looks there haven't even been attempts on Blade/Ulti/Kirby so I'm kind if concerned about the "impasse loop" that supposedly exists. Could be a setup to just have town continue to mislynch each other. The night kills just make no sense on just trying to avoid protection/power hunt. Also I keep thinking about how Lopen disappeared exactly 24hrs after Blade input a kill command and is coasting off a doctor claim with a JK.

The only reason I feel I'm digging a rabbit hole on this thought process is that if both Blade and Kirby are scum then town has no protection and if that were the case scum would have to be 4 in 19. And I think it's extremely unlikely that scum has two possible roleblockers so I am putting Kirby in as our only confirmed town. Blade on the other is absolutely in my PoE and I tomorrow I plan to put his feet to the coals.

i agree with this but was going to say this later. specifically the blade part, i think kirby is fine

yes

you're not wrong tbh.

I ended up being far busier in these weeks than I'd hoped. I've got to run a few errands and then call my mom for about an hour at 3:30 EST, but I'll be fully here and present from 4:30 until the deadline at 6.

I'll write up something a little more formal then but I'm trending town on MI and ctes I think. I'm not sure we should put all that much faith in Ulti's scans though. Not because I distrust Ulti (I think he's town) but because Sbell's role was clearly a trap so it's likely that Ulti's is too, to some extent. We're better off solving by more or less ignoring scans altogether I think

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Hey Chang, your ability was just one shot, right?

yes

i think multiple people would kill Lea post-game if i got to do it again lmao

ctesjbuvf posted...

MZero had one yeah.

disregard me

Who got the FD pineapple on n3?

the one reason to be afraid of FD is that all of his targets are currently alive, whether by coincidence or on purpose

look ctes Ive just narrowed down your bet pool

Dittos a hard one. The original ditto is basically perfect as is, so Id imagine it would have to be a regional form.

maybe it transforms and copies all the stats (including HP) but halves its speed? So its a trick room ditto of sorts (that can hold a non-choice scarf item finally)

or maybe since they removed mirror move it keeps dittos (shitty) stats but it can use +1 priority mirror move as its only move? Or a new version of mirror move that uses the move the target selected this turn? Something like instead of perfecting transformation by copying Pokmon it perfected copying Pokmon moves instead

or two "do the thing get the vig shot"

what was ctes' take on IGCD this game?

is there too much overlap in two vigs

thank you now let's kill death

UltimaterializerX posted...

If he starts cursing, hes usually scum. My issue is there was no actual reason for him to claim like this. He has an innocent scan on him, no cop ever scans the same player twice, and he could have safely claimed vanilla (or whatever).

Occulams Razor says Red is scum here and they were expecting a redirect into whatever the hell ctes is, but I got roleblocked.

he could not have claimed vanilla. we would have murdered him.

but frankly I actually think he's more likely to be scum because he's not mad enough. ctes is someone I have pegged down as 'getting mad when he gets a stupid role' and getting bad outcomes four nights in a row when he's estimated it's like 80% luck i feel like he would be more mad than he is

Meow1000 posted...

Except if scum shot MZero or me last night, they didn't need to fear protection.

On nights 1-3, they feared Watcher.

i mean there's theoretically a 50/50 game to be played where if Kirby is certain they're killing you he can JK you and leave himself unguarded

smart? no, but smarter than what he did with ulti tbh

Meow1000 posted...

I still find it bonkers how much Chang is arguing it came from town given how it makes absolutely no sense at all.

it makes absolutely no sense that scum would use that to redirect a scan instead of kill through protection if they could. maybe they're explicitly not allowed to send the factional kill at someone in the redirection/BD, like its a condition of the ability?

Meow1000 posted...

Town bus can't exist with Kirby and I.

I suspect the bus drive isn't unlimited use, but scum was too afraid of watcher to go after us with a bus. Anyone watching one of us would still see the bus driver targeting us.

and instead of using that ability to kill you or kirby last night they bus drove red and ctes in the event that Ulti scanned red?

yeah I don't think so

htaeD posted...

....
Who did Kirby roleblock night2 again?
Maybe Kirby blocked the busdriver and thats why scum wound up shooting Isquen.

I believe it was

n1: wallz
n2: corrik
n3: MI
n4: ulti

perhaps Blade is not exactly a "doctor"

if scum had a bus driver wouldn't blade or kirby or ulti be dead by now? It literally completely nullifies protection abilities used to save people and they could have killed whoever they wanted

if anything I would be more likely to believe someone is hiding a town bus driver claim and they've redirected a couple of the odd kills (like isquen)

ctesjbuvf posted...

And also everyone else had claimed. I didn't want to risk a potential tracker to cost a mislynch on both me and them.

?

Ben's action should be more like a day action than a night one. The invite shows up at the beginning of the night, not at the end

on a scale of 0-100 how much would you attribute the poor outcomes thus far due to poor choices on your part (0) vs pure luck (100)

pointless to use seems better than it's worked out for you thus far

why are you so sure that keeping all of this hidden is going to make finding scum and solving the game easier than putting it out into the open and letting everyone attempt to solve together today?

i would simply not lose my bets

why haven't you simply done better at making 'bets'

why are you losing every single bet lmao

Starburns went missing...

you know who else went missing? Lopen

we want flavor claimed!

@Leafeon13N @red13n

give flavor then red take the floor

we demand flavor!

Bookie to me implies not full RNG but some RNG involved with the bets youre placing.

like its not to the level of a schizo but you dont have full control either

When i was bookie in jojo mafia i had to predict the next days lynch correctly to get the positive thing (there werent any negative things, just nothing)

Death and ctes in the morning