LogFAQs > #981287207

legendary_zell posted...

After dooming for an hour or two, I've had a chance to think a little. I expect it'll give him a noticeable bump for a month or two. But he's still Trump and still eminently hateable. This is definitely not going to make core Democrats or people who hated Trump before the shooting stay home. It's not going to make core Republicans vote for him more than they already were going to (I could be wrong on this, it could give some fake never Trumpers an excuse to vote for him).

The question is how it affects independents, moderates, centrists, and low info voters then. This won't get him any of the ones that are aligned with Dems. It'll at best activate people who were already fundamentally Trumpy because this doesn't change his policies or personality at all and you were likely already in his camp if you think this confirms that "the left/deep state" are trying to stop him at any cost.

When 3000 events we can't fathom happen between now and November, and people default back to where their priors point them, I don't think this'll be one of the top 5 things on people's minds when they're casting votes. Or deciding whether to vote or not.

He also will overplay it so much it starts to ring hollow to anyone that is not a die hard that would vote for Trump no matter what. Trump does not have tact the dude does plenty of shit that shoots himself in the foot.

90% chance he makes another NFT about this event.