LogFAQs > #983195012

LeoRavus posted...

Isn't that a 1/400 chance per drawing? Each time you'll have the same 1/400 chance. I don't think it stacks to reach a higher percentage.

It is probability odds. What are the odds that you can guess a coin flip right? 50%. How about guessing it right multiple times in a row?

Twice = 50% x 50% = 25%
3 times = 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%
4 times = 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%

And so on. It isnt guaranteed, but those are the odds. Now if you wanted to find the odds of getting your coin flip correct just once on multiple guesses, you just subtract the above odds from 1:

Guessing right once on 2 flips = 1 - .25 = 75%
Guessing right once on 3 flips = 1 - .125 = 87.5%
Guessing right once on 4 flips = 1 - .0625 = 93.75%

The same works with the lottery, only with higher odds against you. if we assume the 99.75% chance of losing each time

One draw = .9975
Two draws = .9975 x .9975 = .995 chance of losing
Three draws = .9975 x .9975 x .9975 = .9925 chance of losing
Four draws = .9975^4 = .9900 chance of losing

And so on. So by the time you got to 300 drawings

.9975^300 = .472 chance of losing

Which means you have a 52.8% chance of winning within the first 300 drawings. Better than 50%.

Again, not a guarantee. But thats statistics.