LogFAQs > #986860782

KrisIsLyra posted...

It really doesn't make sense to me at all. How can anyone look at his first term and think we should have more of that?

Looking at polling data.

• People who always vote Dem did so.
• People who never vote didn't vote.
• People who always vote Rep did so.
• New Voters overwhelmingly chose Trump.
• New Non-Voters were more likely to have been previous Dem Voters than Rep, but not by much.

So since most of the voters did as they normally did, the reason Trump won can be largely attributed to a successful campaign by Trump's team to appeal to young first time voters. This was also Trump's most diverse election turnout, so somehow he managed to capture a lot of undecided minority voters that he didn't previously have. I understand how he got young men to vote for him, male loneliness epidemic is a pretty well understood pipeline at this point, but I dont understand how he got minority votes.

And then there's Kamala running a relative weak campaign which caused a slightly below average democratic turnout. (Well, it was a record turnout for both sides actually, but im talking ptoprotionality here) If Dems turned out in full force it probably would have swung at least the popular vote to Kamala, but its hard to say with how fucked Electorals are.

Either way the dems who ghosted Kamala are a far lesser concern than the veritable hordes of young voters who chose Trump. He only won by 1.5% popularity iirc, and I'm not sure the absentee Dems would have actually been enough to budge the needle. Polls suggest that if turnout had been higher then Trump would have actually widened the gap.

Assuming there's a next election, Dems could probably win by doubling down on Kamala and just having a better campaign plan from the start. Pivoting from Biden to Kamala hurt hard. They don't need to cater to the left (though imo they should at least do some token lip service) but a strong focus on undecided new voters would help a lot. Maybe try to pull some of the newer Trump voters who might be feeling burned now. A stronger campaign even if it's more of the same shit liberals always run on has a chance to win. I feel their chances would be better if they stopped punching left all the time, but the red scare runs deep in this country and I don't begrudge Dems for thinking that progressive politics are kind of a poisoned pill atm.

Kamala's not my favorite pick, but I dont think her "Brand" is irreprably tarnished the way it was for Biden. A good PR strategy could work. Trump isn't as popular as he tries to tell people he is.

We 100% do need to be prepared for another Jan 6 if we actually get to have another election though.