relevant part in a sec, it is worth noting before freaking out about it is that he very specifically followed up with the fact that this isn't severe cases, it's all cases.
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, Actually, let me start again. So its striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.
Containment is the first step in responding to any outbreak. In the case of COVID-19, the possibility (however implausible) of preventing a pandemic seemed to play out in a matter of days. Starting in January, China began cordoning off progressively larger areas, radiating outward from the city of Wuhan and eventually encapsulating some 100 million people. People were barred from leaving home, and lectured by drones if they were caught outside. Nonetheless, the virus has now been found in 24 countries.
Despite the apparent ineffectiveness of such measuresrelative to their inordinate social and economic cost, at leastthe crackdown continues to escalate. Under political pressure to stop the virus, last Thursday the Chinese government announced that officials in Hubei province would be going door-to-door, testing people for fevers and looking for signs of illness, then sending all potential cases to quarantine camps. But even with the ideal containment, the viruss spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work.
Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. Its likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic, he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
worried for my general health, no. been keeping up so i'm not concerned on that. worried for the state of my supermarkets or any extra medicine to stock up on, hell yes.
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.