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TopicKP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:46:40 PM
#20:


Division 2 Match 3
Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6574-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2004-triforce-division-round-1-kuja-vs-master-hand

Kuja vs. Master Hand brings back memories. Easily one of the most infamous results we've ever had. One of the best villains the FF series has to offer, losing to a hand. The board was...interesting, that day.

I don't have faith in Noctis. FFXV won a weak GotY poll and it's reception has been decidedly mixed. Lightning showed that being an FF main character doesn't automatically make you good, and I can't imagine Noctis being appreciably stronger than her - if he's stronger at all.

It's still enough to beat a hand though. Kuja losing was more due to his own weakness than Master Hand's strength. Noctis could still lose if he flat-out sucks, but he would have to really suck.

But wait, Smash Ultimate is coming out! Maybe that will make a difference...!

(It won't.)

Result:
Noctis - 55%
Master Hand - 45%

Noctis has a 75% chance of winning

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Division 2 Match 4
Monika vs. Wario


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6948-best-of-2017-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6951-best-of-2017-indies

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3244-division-1-round-1-cecil-jade-wario-zack
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5212-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-creeper-vs-wario-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5248-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-wario-vs-red-vs-wrex

Hoo boy.

I'll state this now: for the purposes of this topic, I will not take significant rallies into account. There no point, Either they don't happen and the character loses, or they do and the character wins. Not much middle ground. If you want to take Monika to the finals, be my guest! She's scary. Not the scariest rally entrant here, but scary nonetheless. But if you're not...

Then Wario wins easy. Make no mistake: Wario is not good. Wario is marginally above the fodder line. Wario is not well-liked by the Nintendo fanbase. But everyone knows Wario, which means he still beats character from a game that the vast majority of GameFAQs hasn't played or even heard of.

Result:
Monika - 34%
Wario - 66%

Wario has a 100% chance of winning
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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