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TopicKP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:53:58 PM
#33:


Division 3 Match 7
Kefka vs. L-Block


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3756-heart-division-round-1-kefka-vs-arthas
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3807-heart-division-round-2-kefka-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5236-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-2-altair-vs-lara-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5256-character-battle-ix-division-4-final-solid-snake-vs-glados

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3758-heart-division-round-1-l-block-vs-hk-47
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3808-heart-division-round-2-l-block-vs-isaac
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5202-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-l-block-vs-teemo-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5244-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-2-ezio-vs-auron-vs-l
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259-character-battle-ix-division-7-final-samus-vs-l-block-vs

The most important match of Round 1. The winner of this probably wins two more matches, and both of them are inconsistent bastards. Kefka was terrible for years until he got Dissidia pics, and then in 2010 he became good, and in 2013 he became really good. I think people undersell just how good he did in 2013. His results against Zack, Altair, and Snake were all really legit and put him on a level far above what he's been capable of in the past. Kefka 2013 got the same result against Snake as he did against Bowser in 2010, with no immediately obvious reason for the increase.

Meanwhile, L-Block is even more all-over-the-place. Won 2007, failed to capitalize on favorable situations in 2008 and lost to Pikachu, did bad in 2010, then did a lot better in 2013. It's easy to look at L-Block>Auron in 2013 and infer that he beats Kefka because Auron>Kefka, but L-Block got a rally in that match so the 'real' result is obscured. L-Block is higher in the 2013 stats, but the only thing I trust less than the 2013 stats is the 2013 stats for a joke character. L-Block is also higher in the 2010 stats though, so he's clearly got the edge as far as pure numbers go.

I'm still taking Kefka. I think the answer lies in how they are inconsistent. Let's look at Kefka's history:

Pre-2010: Did awful
2010: Look, Dissidia pics!
2013: Did even better

Dissidia marked this 2010-and-onward revival of old-school Square characters. They all got updated artwork and renders, and Square keeps shoving them into all these crossover games. Kefka could regress but I think it's likely he stays near his 2013 level, especially considering that GameFAQs currently consists of old fogies with major nostalgia for FF6. Now let's look at L-Block:

2007: Wins. Like, the whole thing
2008: Still strong but much weaker
2010: eeeeeeh
2013: Looked better but still needed a rally to succeed

L-Block's results make it exceedingly clear that he is a character that thrives on hype, rallies, and multi-character polls (just like every other joke character ever). Joke characters also, as a rule, become weaker over time. In a 1 v 1 contest that limits rallies, where we're years removed away from his 2007 win...yeah. This can still go either way because these guys are bastards, but I'm calling it:

Result:
Kefka - 52%
L-Block - 48%

Kefka has a 55% chance of winning

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Division 3 Match 8
Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6952-best-of-2017-remakes

Hope that Kiryu is happy to be there, because even though Bomberman is weak, he's not dropping this one.

Result:
Kazuma Kiryu - 33%
Bomberman - 66%

Bomberman has a 100% chance of winning
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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