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Topic | Politics Containment Topic 200: Sayonara Nimrata |
Suprak the Stud 10/12/18 12:07:40 AM #62: | Corrik posted... Assuming 7 tossups. Did you pull this from RCP? Your breakdown is right (44 safe Dems 49 safe Reps), but North Dakota isn't the toss up, Montana is. North Dakota is lean Republican. Tennessee is about to slip out of toss up range too, so you're looking at 44-50. So basically Dems would need a clean sweep to gain a single seat, which based on the polling is increasingly unlikely. It think Tester is likely ok in Montana (could change, obviously, but Montana is weird like this and Tester is still well liked). But even then we'd need to win 5 out 5 in Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Florida and Indiana just to gain a single seat. Polling in Missouri has been down for a while, and 538 has Heller favorited in Nevada now too. Arizona has been trending more red in recent polls. Like, it would be *great* for the democrats if they pulled out Indiana and Florida considering how competitive those two are, but they could still lose seats. This is just such a nightmare map for Democrats. Although, if they can't pick up Heller's seat who isn't even that well liked in what has been a blue state for a long time, we don't really deserve to win. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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