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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 200: Sayonara Nimrata
Suprak the Stud 10/12/18 12:09:52 AM #63:	Eddv posted... Corrik posted... Assuming 7 tossups. Tennessee Florida Missouri Nevada North Dakota Arizona Indiana This is lumping in leans. The two true tossups are NV and MO. Republicans are at +1 on the odds because you can basically assume one breaks for GOP and one breaks for Dems. This is 538 and they take into more complicated stuff like incumbency effect, lean of the state, lean of polls, and numerous other factors. They have a polls only model which is basically in line with RCP. (At least, 538 has the true tossups as NV and MO at the moment, so I'm assuming that is what you're referring to!) --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:910385784] in Politics C... [t:77088434]...</cite> <quote><cite>Eddv posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote>Assuming 7 tossups. Tennessee Florida Missouri Nevada North Dakota Arizona Indiana</quote> This is lumping in leans. The two true tossups are NV and MO. Republicans are at +1 on the odds because you can basically assume one breaks for GOP and one breaks for Dems.</quote> This is 538 and they take into more complicated stuff like incumbency effect, lean of the state, lean of polls, and numerous other factors. They have a polls only model which is basically in line with RCP. (At least, 538 has the true tossups as NV and MO at the moment, so I'm assuming that is what you're referring to!) --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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