Tennessee Florida Missouri Nevada North Dakota Arizona Indiana
44 Dems 49 Repubs
In Tennessee and North Dakota there are some polls with Repubs with double digits leads.
Heller has taken leads in recent polls slightly in Nevada.
Arizona is closely Dem right now but close. As is Florida. Both within 2%.
Indiana Dems are up around 3%.
Missouri Republican has started to take the lead in polls slightly also.
There is a possibility Repubs could pull away with a lot more seats than initially expected in this Senate race. Warning flags have to be flying all over the place regarding it for Dems. Unless a change in trends happens in the next month.
Did you pull this from RCP?
Your breakdown is right (44 safe Dems 49 safe Reps), but North Dakota isn't the toss up, Montana is. North Dakota is lean Republican. Tennessee is about to slip out of toss up range too, so you're looking at 44-50.
So basically Dems would need a clean sweep to gain a single seat, which based on the polling is increasingly unlikely. It think Tester is likely ok in Montana (could change, obviously, but Montana is weird like this and Tester is still well liked). But even then we'd need to win 5 out 5 in Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Florida and Indiana just to gain a single seat. Polling in Missouri has been down for a while, and 538 has Heller favorited in Nevada now too. Arizona has been trending more red in recent polls.
Like, it would be *great* for the democrats if they pulled out Indiana and Florida considering how competitive those two are, but they could still lose seats. This is just such a nightmare map for Democrats. Although, if they can't pick up Heller's seat who isn't even that well liked in what has been a blue state for a long time, we don't really deserve to win.