LogFAQs > #910452055

Vincent has historically been much stronger than Magus. The 2010 X-stats project him to win with 70% of the vote. Even the 2013 stats project an easy win for him, probably thanks to Metwo's run.

This is purely speculative, but I think that Chrono Trigger as a game will always get a lot more respect than its characters. None of the characters in that game, except Crono, really take a prominent position in the story. Even Frog completes his arc around halfway through - he's not that much more important than anyone else. I think this might partially explain why there's such a steep drop in contest power after Crono.

I think you have to bet hard on Vincent falling off a cliff for Magus to win, but at least it's only a one point pick, so you can take the risk - provided Vincent can't take down Auron, that is.

It bears mentioning that Waluigi's prospects for success are entirely rally-based. I don't see much reason to assume he'll be stronger than Wario. Even in 2013 Aeris is projected to double Wario.

EDIT: I didn't realize Waluigi was in the 2013 contest. He lost badly to Raiden in the first round. For what little it's worth, he's higher than Wario in the X-stats, and they project Aeris to score 62% on him.

Division 6

Battle 87x: (4) Auron vs (11) Vincent Valentine

Rather than strategic betting, like I was thinking of earlier, I would propose that the way to play this contest is to try and be as accurate as possible. Auron should have better odds. If Vincent turns out to be nearly as weak as 2013 made him look, Auron wins. If he doesn't, Auron still has a chance. I still think the upset is viable, but I'm too chicken to back it personally. Auron wins with 53%

Battle 107: (1) Geralt vs (13) Riku

Looking over his past performances, Riku's contest strength actually deserves a lot of respect. Going by the stats, his match with Hayabusa is a bit of a tossup - they should be close. Riku has the trump card of KHIII hype, which would lead me to favor him in that battle.

Geralt confuses things somewhat. He would have to occupy a fairly specific power range to defeat Hayabusa but lose to Riku, unless that KHIII hype has boosted Riku like mad. Of course, it's not a given that Geralt can beat Hayabusa to begin with, and I wouldn't be confident picking him to make the division finals. I imagine this is a bit of a hot take, but I consider him to have the best odds of anyone, so Riku wins with 52%

Battle 108: (3) Auron vs (10) Sub-Zero

Easy one. If Vincent is here instead, then he's still strong enough to beat Auron, and thus he easily beats Subby. Auron wins with 60%