Board 8 > Board 8 National Football League League (B8NFLL) Season 10: Regular Season

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Hub Spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10gIP0JkVqOaoUc4aQX_NyDM8dB31FOPm_dUx6DVTWPk/edit?usp=sharing

Word Doc
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Wiki Page
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Board_8_National_Football_League_League

Previous Topic (alive as of this moment)
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/76628612
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Week 1 User vs User Matchups
Titans (Stan) at Steelers (Shattered)
Bears (cheyne) at Panthers (Emerald)
Lions (Nee) at Patriots (Jukkie)
Jaguars (Sultan) at Pumpkins (Shonen)

Game of the Week
Broncos at Dolphins

Week 1 will tentatively be live-simmed on Thursday, July 5th
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To Do:
- Division + Conference predictions
- Update wiki
- Go through and delete old B8NFLL PMs from inbox and outbox
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I predict that 4 the 3rd straight year you predict the Giants to come in third and then we come in 2nd.
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Now is time for my annual predictions for how teams will finish in the division and conference. Sometimes, I am spot-on. Most of the time, I am wrong, sometimes horribly so (such as every team I have picked to finish #1 in conference has failed to make the playoffs). I do not have these typed up already, so this will take some time.
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AFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Washington Hawks
4. Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos are your reigning Super Bowl champs. They had what I deemed to be the second-greatest season last season. They return all but three of their starters. One was retired OLB Robert McCune and he will be replaced by OLB Lawrence Timmons who has nearly the same rating as McCune did. Another was QB Ryan Perrilloux who was healthy for the first time and actually had a decent passing season for a scrambling QB (I mistakenly said that he was terrible throwing the ball previously). He will be replaced by the most dynamic QB in B8NFLL in Michael Vick. Finally, gone is DE Zach Latimer who was traded to the Titans for one of the best WRs in B8NFLL in Keary Colbert. They spent their first two picks in the draft on replacements for Latimer. Sometimes life isn't fair, and the rest of the AFC West has to already be feeling that way. It would be a monumental upset for the Broncos to not win the division as they have to be the favorites to repeat as SB champs and become the first team to win it all in back-to-back seasons.

I flip-flopped on these next two. I believe in the Raiders just a tad more as they have fielded a Top 10 defense for two straight seasons. I don't really have have much to say about that defense. It is solid from top-to-bottom with a nice mixture of veterans and youth. They will need their offense to do better than it did last season. QB Andy Dalton started 7 games while departed QB Tavaris Jackson started 9 games last season. Dalton had a winning record while Jackson had a losing record, and the offense was surprisingly more dynamic with Dalton. Of course, two of those games were against the Chiefs where Dalton tore that defense a new one. He will begin the season as the starter, but rookie QB Blake Bortles must have had an excellent preseason as his overall rating shot up since being signed. There are a few new faces along the OL, but other than that, this is basically the same offense that returns. The ceiling for this team isn't high, but with a decent schedule, a Wild Card spot isn't out of the question.

On paper, the Hawks are a playoff team. While they have dealt with their fair share of injuries over the years, the reason for their lack of success is really just under-performance and poor luck, and they are running out of time with nine starters 32 or older. They fielded a Top 10 offense and Top 15 defense last season and managed to finish 7-9. QB Philip Rivers has had a strong first two years in Washington, HB DeMarco Murray may or may not start Week 1, but he was a rookie of the year finalist last season. WR Roddy White is one of the best in the AFC, and that OL has performed like one of the league's best. I have complete faith in this offense, but its the defense that I think will allow the Raiders to overtake them in the division. They have a higher ceiling than the Raiders, but their front seven needs to return to form after everyone but OLB Koa Misi had down years individually.

The Chiefs finished last season dead last in total offense and defense. Their changes were to move on from their best offensive player (HB Domanick Davis), sign TE Owen Daniels in RFA, draft SS Andrew Sendejo, and trade one RG Brandon Moore for RG Eric Heitmann. This is going to be a long season in KC.
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AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. New England Patriots

Over the past three offseasons, the Dolphins have lost 14 90+ players to retirement, trade, or free agency. While the third's ending has yet to be decided, the first two seasons resulted in a SB title and an appearance in the AFC title game. Needless to say, they should be alright, but there is a major issue. The Dolphins have long had a roster-building approach that looked to play the long-game. The majority of their 1st round picks were drafted to be groomed into future starters after the incumbents retired. Unfortunately, that did not extend to their OTs as an unexpected holdout and cap issues forced them to see three 90+ OTs go in the past two offseasons with their current set of OTs being 88, 78, 76, and 72 overall. The Dolphins might be the first one to have an interior OL start at OT Week 1, but if RG Kelechi Osmele isn't ready to go, they will be starting two sub-80 rookie OTs against the Broncos. The Dolphins are likely the only realistic threat to the Broncos in the AFC, so Week 1 will be a great indication if we can expect competition from the top of the AFC. Regardless, the Dolphins should be easy picks to win the division for the seventh straight season or at worst earn their first wild card spot.

I hesitated to put the Bills in second because most probably know how I am high on the Jets on an annual basis. The Bills are a better team on paper than they were last season with adding C Roberto Garza, Gs Robert Turner and Adam Goldberg, CB Justin King, CB Desmond Trufant, and converting Korey Hall back to his natural position at MLB. They were however one of the league's biggest overachievers last season featuring the 27th ranked defense, 14th ranked offense, #2 PPG in the AFC, and #2 point differential in the AFC. The defense should normalize and fall in the 15-22 range. The offense might fall in the same 11-20 range, but the PPG were certainly fall off and thus the point differential will too. The question is though if stevr will prioritize winning or developing rookie QB Derek Carr. If the former, they are definitely in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. If the latter, there are too many playoff-caliber teams focused on winning in the AFC for the Bills to reasonably expect to make the playoffs.

The Jets field basically the same team as last season. The only new starter will be rookie C Maurkice Pouncey. This team will be lead by perennial MVP candidate HB Romance Taylor and the steady defense. QB Drew Brees' wheels have started to fall off (passer rating fell almost 20 points from S8 to S9), and the OL health has been a real issue. If everything clicks, then they are the second-best team in the division and a Wild Card team, but I don't have enough faith that the offense will hold up all season.

That preseason could have gone a lot better for the Patriots. The OL was really the only place hit, but it was hit hard with. That being said, their season begins with home dates against the Lions, Bills, and Browns, so they could conceivably start out undefeated and then have most of their OL return Week 4 against the Dolphins. That being said, this wasn't the greatest offseason for the Pats. Cap issues forced them to part with multiple players, almost exclusively on the offensive side of the ball. The Pats were a Bottom 5 offense last season, so getting rid of two of their three best WRs, two best Gs, and multple OTs will likely not help out the offense and put a lot of pressure on their defense to perform so well that it can carry an anemic offense to the postseason. Having given up their 1st rounder next season and additional cap issues on the horizon, the Pats can ill afford any more setbacks.
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AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Mexico City Browns

The Cincinnati Bengals were easily the best team in the division last season. Every other team had a terrible turnover differential and were in the bottom 10 in at least total offense or defense.The Bengals had one of my favorite drafts this season, and they got rid of perennial disappointment QB Brad Smith for near-elite QB Carson Palmer. They also had a solid free agency beyond that. Picking them to win the division was a no-brainer, but I do want to point out that I would not be surprised by how this division shakes out order-wise in the end.

The single best unit in this division in the Ravens who have fielded Top 5 units in each of the past three seasons. The offense has always been a one-trick pony, and I assume Wiki was attempting to diversify when he acquired QB Ben Roethlisberger in the offseason. Big Ben had started 142 out of 144 games entering the season, but he's now lost for half of the season after fracturing his foot. The team right now is slightly worse than it was last season having traded away DT Randy Starks and TE Alge Crumpler retiring. Since Crumpler had been a fixture since the inaugural season, it remains to be seen how losing the previously highest-rated blocking TE in the league will affect the offense that I expect to once again be a one-trick pony for the first half. I think that the defense should keep them around .500 for the first half, but they might need to be above .500. The second half of their schedule may include four divisional games, but it also includes all four nonconference games, which won't be much of a factor in any tiebreakers if they are fighting for a Wild Card spot. Life without Big Ben is something they are familiar with (obviously), but now the stakes might be even higher.

The Steelers will see a lot of new faces with currently eight new players expected to start Week 1 and an old face promoted to starter. Not all of them will work out, but being optimistic and saying that four or five will pay immediate dividends, what is the ceiling for this team? I don't see them being in the first (Broncos/Dolphins) or second (Jags/Pioneers/Jets/Bills) tier among AFC teams, so they are in a fight with half of the AFC in that third tier for Wild Card spots, and I have as much or more confidence in most of those other teams.

The Browns had an excellent draft, but this team still has major issues on offense, namely QB and the overall skill level at OL. That defense though is choc full of playmakers, more than any other AFC North team. It's also possible that the combination of rookie HB Mark Ingram and a total remaking of that interior OL clicks from the start and the Browns become surprise playoff contenders. The safe bet though is that next season can be their year to push for a playoff spot, but they are certainly a team that can make things interesting this season.
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AFC South

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Columbus Pioneers
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Indianapolis Colts

The Jags may have lost many defensive players to retirement, but they had a sneaky good offseason aside from that. They were able to nab three new starters on defense without having to give up a starter or their 1st round pick, and they added much needed youth on defense in the draft. He's had some injury issues, but QB Tim Tebow has turned into a great QB that the Jags should be able to put their trust into for the next 10 seasons. They have arguably the best HB and TE in the league, their WR corps are great with youth backing up their veteran starters, and that OL is rock solid. The defense can no longer be expected to be among the league's best, but it still routinely finishes in the 11-20 range, so it is still reliable. As long as they can stay relatively healthy, they have a great chance at reclaiming the division as they have one of the more favorable schedules among the brutal schedules the AFC South have.

After all those years of predicting the Pioneers to usurp the Jags, I finally stopped and lo and behold, they did it. Perhaps doing that again will make history repeat itself, but I am not quite as high on the Pioneers. Their team is worse on paper. Gone are their bookends who were there from the beginning (LT Orlando Pace and RT Tarik Glenn). They also drafted for the future with few draft picks expected to make any sort of impact this season. Free agency also added a little depth and that's it. If their new starting OTs perform like Pace and Glenn, young starters such as QB Russell Wilson and DT Geno Atkins continue to make strides, and the team that year in and year out is among the most injured in the league sees the amount of injured players and lost games cut back, then I can see them repeating as AFC South champs. That's a lot of ifs though.

The Titans made many changes without owning their 1st round, mostly on defense adding DEs Zach Latimer and Jamaal Anderson and MLB Brian Cushing. However, what I think will make the biggest impact this season is not an addition but a subtraction. WR Keary Colbert has been one of the best WRs in B8FNLL. He has never missed a game, has made four Pro Bowls, has eclipsed 1000 yards four times, and has five seasons of 8+ TDs. This is all while playing for a team that has picked in the Top 5 five times. WR Larry Fitzgerald did not have a great first season with the Titans, and this was after coming over from the Wildcats in a Michael Vick-led offense. Stan may have traded the wrong WR, and if he did, this might be an ugly offense this season. While not a bust, QB Kirby Freeman has never lived up to his billing as the #1 overall pick and has not performed up to his ability. He is coming off his best season, but he wasn't even in the Top 12 for passer rating or completion %. Outside of LT Travelle Wharton, the rest of the OL can be described as effective but oft-injured or healthy but pedestrian. New HB Marshawn Lynch is a bit of an enigma after backing up HB Adrian Peterson for the past six seasons, but his career YPC is under 4, and he is a non-factor in the passing game. The scary reality is that this team might have to be this season's Panthers and rely on their defense with an offense that might find itself in the Bottom 10. This is, I believe, the only team in the league that has never fielded a Top 10 offense or defense. This team also overachieved last season reaching .500 with an offense and defense that ranked in the 20s. The Titans could improve this season and still have a worse record. Couple that with a brutal schedule, and I see a tough road ahead for the Titans in their pursuit of their first winning record.
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The Colts may have been the only undefeated team in the preseason, but I expect them to compete with the Chiefs for the bottom of the AFC. Much like the Jags, they had an effective but aging defense, and they poured all of their draft resources on that side of the ball. A team that once had a bleak future still looks kind of bleak to be honest, but there is now some reason for hope the injection of youthful depth on both sides of the ball. With the schedules that the AFC South received, it would be a remarkable accomplishment for the Colts to reach .500, earn a wild card spot, and/or win the division.
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Oh snap, I hope that means I don't have to be this season's Panthers if Stan is.
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AFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Denver Broncos
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Columbus Pioneers
6. Baltimore Ravens

Playoff Contenders
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Oakland Raiders
9. New York Jets
10. Washington Hawks
11. New England Patriots
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Mexico City Browns

Maybe Next Season
15. Kansas City Chiefs
16. Indianapolis Colts
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Tag.
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Wayne and Colbert always seemed to trade off on who led the team in receiving yards over the years. So with Colbert having a great season last year, I'm obviously banking on Fitzgerald having a bounce back year. Chris Harris also has been sneaky good at catching TDs acting as the 3rd/4th option the last two years so maybe he can take over some of that TD production from Colbert. I dunno, nothing else has worked so *shrug*

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. St. Louis Rams
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Toronto Wildcats

Anyone who pays attention to my predictions or when I speak about other teams knows that I have always been high on the Jets, Pioneers, Pumpkins, and Seahawks. I eased off the Seahawks last season, but I am back on board baby! Losing Top 10 pick OT Riley Reiff sucks, but he was only supposed to be a backup this season anyway. The #4 overall pick from a season ago, QB Kirk Cousins, was overshadowed by his division rival Ryan Tannehill, but in the handful of games he started in place of the departed Carson Palmer, Cousins was great. Whether he can do that over a full season remains to be seen, but with a new FB in Greg Jones a comeback season from HB Lynell Hamilton renewing my faith in him, an underrated TE in Matt Spaeth, and solid if thin OL, I think Cousins will do just fine. Why I think this is the year to believe in the Seahawks though is that I think this is the season that the defense breaks out. With the rest of the division expected to step back offensively due to personnel changes and regression to the mean, this outstanding-on-paper defense might get its best shot to shine. The two games the Seahawks have that the rest don't are home against the Lightning and at the Bears. That might be the difference.

The Rams might have spoiled any future users' expectations for rookie QBs because what Ryan Tannehill did will likely never come close to being replicated. Moving on, Ronnie Brown had easily his best season in B8NFLL, and that offense as a whole is outstanding. That defense though has been and still is an issue. They signed FS Harrison Smith in RFA, so they have one bonafide stud in the secondary, but this entire defense lacks playmakers outside of Smith, OLB Jerry Hughes, and DTs John Mixon and Rodrique Wright. Perhaps having four defense playmakers is something most people would kill for, but there isn't a whole lot of talent on this defense, and they need more playmakers to prevent what happened in the NFC Championship game from occurring again.

I have been a bit puzzled by the 49ers if I've being honest. They traded two first round picks for the league's best WR Andre Johnson only to trade away QB Big Ben a season later then replace him with a scrambling QB in Cam Newton. This makes Johnson sort of a luxury whose impact will likely be less on the field than what he inputs into the algorithm for team rating. Then, after seeing the defense rise for four straight seasons and blossom into #4 in the league, the team changes gears and installs a 4-3 with the ramifications to be determined. I like their draft and their talent as a whole. I'm just not on board with the direction the team went this offseason.

The Wildcats made the necessary decision to focus on defense in the draft. For the most talent-starved defense in the league, they just need to throw things at the wall and see what will stick. It isn't the most ideal method, but for a team with cap issues, the only other viable option would be to trade offense for defense. Making both the offense and defense mediocre though isn't a recipe for success. It will be a long re-building effort, but as long as the offense remains good, they can remain competitive even if they won't be serious playoff contenders. Will that offense remain good though? Historically, the Wildcats have been a Top 5 offense when QB Michael Vick is on the field and a roughly Bottom 10 offense when off. Right now, former 4th round pick Jimmy Clauson is slated to start Week 1 after coming off a fantastic second season and has seen his OVR rise tremendously since he was drafted. HB Laurence Maroney has a career 4.6 YPC but due to being in a Vick offense, he has only eclipsed 1000 yards and 225 carries once. The Wildcats offense will go as far as those two (unless prof puts in Kaepernick for Clauson). If they don't rise to the occasion, the Wildcats might be looking at another developmental setback and a Top 5 pick.
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NFC East

1. Washington Redskins
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Las Vegas Pumpkins
4. New York Giants

Even with their cap issues, the Redskins might be back. Their depth is only slightly better than it was last season, but they have talent all over the field instead of it being mostly concentrated on defense. They have never been a prolific passing team, and the game favors the run game anyway (sorry that I mention this about a dozen times each season), but they were respectable for many years. That was a long time ago, but it appears that with QB Brady Quinn, WR Selwyn Lymon, and #1 overall pick WR Julio Jones, they might have the second-best combo of QB/WR/WR/ in the division outside of the Pumpkins. That is of course if Quinn's S9 performance wasn't a fluke and Lymon continues to make steps forward after seeing his rec yards and rec TDs rise every season, but even if Quinn doesn't quite reach the lofty heights of last season and Lymon plateau's is just a tad bit higher than what he did last season, the Redskins should still be ecstatic. With arguably the best OL in the league and HB Kevin Jones still getting it done, Quinn and Lymon will have the support staff in place to succeed. That defense also sees some new faces, namely second round pick CB Casey Hayward and former #2 overall pick of the Bengals SS Patrick Chung, but that is a powerful front seven, and the secondary still has FS Sean Taylor. I wouldn't expect much of a drop-off on defense. This is a playoff team right now, and it could actually compete for a first-round bye. Because of its more shallow depth, it can't afford as many injuries as other playoff contenders and SB hopefuls in the conference, but they started off on the right foot coming out of the preseason unscathed.

The Cowboys, while still an uber-talented team, should be expected to take steps back. They lost several players to retirement, including OLB Julian Peterson, LT Tra Thomas, and elite blocking FB Jeremi Johnson. They let all of their RFAs go, including 95 FS Harrison Smith. They traded several high draft picks for backups in DT Corey Simon and CB Johnathan Joseph. They also used high draft picks players who might never be starters for them and will only contribute to the team in the short run if several catastrophes happen. That won't be enough to knock them out of the playoffs, and that may not be enough for them to lose the division, but it does, to me, make the NFC a wide-open competition.

The Pumpkins after three straight non-losing seasons regressed last season, record-wise, despite finishing with an offense and defense ranked in the top half of the league. This team doesn't really have any weaknesses. That offense is set and raring to go. The defense has a stout DL that a young and ascending LB corps can thrive behind, and that secondary doesn't seem to give up big plays. They don't have as much high-end talent as the Redskins and Cowboys do, and playing in this division has been the difference maker as to why they haven't made the playoffs in recent seasons, but they are going to break out in a big way sooner or later. If the Redskins aren't ready to be back in the spotlight and the Cowboys take more steps backward than expected, then I wouldn't be surprised if the Pumpkins seize the opportunity. It just sucks that they have to play six games against the Redskins/Cowboys/Giants that other divisions are fortunate enough not to.

The Giants are still very much a good team. The problem is that they play in the NFC East and they took a step back. They traded away DT Corey Simon and CB Johnathan Joseph in the offseason and while I really like their draft, that doesn't help their team this season. If the Giants were in any other division in the NFC, we'd be talking about a potential division winner, but in a division where the Redskins and Pumpkins took steps forward and the Cowboys are more talented, the Giants might be drawing the short straw by the season's end.
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KCF0107 posted...

I have been a bit puzzled by the 49ers if I've being honest. They traded two first round picks for the league's best WR Andre Johnson only to trade away QB Big Ben a season later then replace him with a scrambling QB in Cam Newton. This makes Johnson sort of a luxury whose impact will likely be less on the field than what he inputs into the algorithm for team rating. Then, after seeing the defense rise for four straight seasons and blossom into #4 in the league, the team changes gears and installs a 4-3 with the ramifications to be determined. I like their draft and their talent as a whole. I'm just not on board with the direction the team went this offseason.

I had a big fear that Ben will retire after this year and I wanted to get value.(him geting injured seems kind of good timing so far) Cam being available made me want to go in that direction, and changing to 4-3 is a bit of an experiment but I believe due to change in roster it makes more sense? we'll see how it goes.
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NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Los Angeles Bears

It sucks that the Vikings lost HB Julius Jones, the only HB with eight 1000 yard rushing season, for the season. It might be his last season, which sucks even more. That being said, they have second-year pro Jahvid Best ready to show what he can do, one of the two reigning MVPs in QB Josh Portis, a deep WR corps, and a deep and extremely talented OL. As a team with five seasons finishing in both the Top 10 on offense and defense, it goes without saying that they have a great defense to pair with their offense. DL is actually the weakest part of it, but what they lack in pass-rushing ability, they make up for it defending the run against the likes of Chris Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the combo of Carnell Williams/Tyrod Taylor six times a season. That secondary is leagues better than anything the Bears, Lions, and Packers trot out. Barring anything shocking, the Vikings will win the division, but can they go undefeated to give them a better shot at claiming a first round bye? They face the AFC's best division in the East and their unique games apart from their divisional foes are against the NFC Championship opponents in the Cowboys and Rams. It's a tough task, but the Vikings might be up to the challenge.

The Packers did not have the defensive season that I was expecting and losing the other half of the MVP co-winners in OLB Spencer Havner for half the season does not help matters, but they are a great bet to regress to the mean and at least finish in the middle of the pack on defense. To get back into the playoff race and compete for the division, they will need their offense shape up. It begins with QB Tyrod Taylor who regressed super hard. He played in a career high 13 games, but after fumbling 2 times in hist first 16 starts across his first two seasons, he fumbled 12 times last season. After coming into the season with a career 77.0 rating, he recorded 62.9 last season with a 14:19 TD:INT ratio and 52.8% completion percentage. There's nowhere to go but up from there right? Carnell Williams continues to be the steady offensive force that prevents the offense from becoming complete shit, but he's 32 now and his backups are a HB who lost last season to injury and a 71 overall rookie. That OL is good when healthy, but it often isn't, and the youngest starter is 32. The easiest portion of the Packers schedule is in the first half, so like the Ravens, they need to grin and bear their terrible injury and find themselves at least at .500 through Week 8 or 9 to have a shot at becoming a playoff team.

Madden deemed the Lions to be the first team in the league last season, I was inclined to agree that they would be among the league's worst. They overachieved like hell to finish 8-8 and not be eliminated from the playoffs until Week 16. They didn't suffer too much when it came to retirements, they used depth to trade for needs on defense, and they used draft picks to build up their defense. That being said, like the Titans, they could easily improve from their performance last season and still finish with a worse record. They don't have as much talent as the Titans or Bills, so throwing schedules out the window, I see them as the most likely of the three to fall back down to earth.
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This is the Bears' last opportunity to make the playoffs or that window will likely be closed for quite some time. Players like HB Chris Brown, WR Javon Walker, TE Eric Johnson, DT Darwin Walker, MLB Dan Morgan, and SS Mike Doss might retire after the season. For most of them, they have replacements in place, but that it will be hard to lose the production that they generally bring. Perhaps ushering in the Andrew Luck era at QB will provide a boost. Like most teams, they didn't have a devastating preseason in terms of injuries. Their schedule is wonky though. They end the season with seven straight home games. If they hover around .500 for most of the season, it is within the realm of possibility that they can make a late playoff push if they take advantage of last stretch of games.
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ScareChan posted...

I had a big fear that Ben will retire after this year

Big Ben will likely play through his age 35 season, so with him being 32, he will have four seasons left, three minimum barring career-ending injuries.
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I think my decisions to deal Simon and Joseph were justified in light of the fact that one way or the other I needed to clear cap space. I also decided not to make a mega push on the closing Randle El/Nance WR windows because I feel like I have enough young talent to stay perpetually good.

That said I mostly agree with you analysis. I need improvement out of Pead, consistency out of Olson, and good defensive performances and development from Sione Fua, Josh Norman, and Barkavious Mingo whilst hoping Ruud doesnt have another 10 week injury.

That said, looking at my schedule, if I can go 3-3 in conference play I think I can still grab a wildcard
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NFC South

1. Anaheim Lightning
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After taking more of a safe route in the AFC, I am going full-on crazy here in the NFC. The Lightning are clearly the least-talented team in the division, but while the other three teams can really only hope for hanging on to their strengths, the Lightning are the only one who can expect and have the personnel in place to improve. Will it be enough to bring them from worst-to-first? Perhaps that is mildly far-fetched, but I am not high on any of the other teams enough to deter me. Like the AFC North, I ultimately won't be surprised on which order the teams end up finishing

After being a perennial under-achiever, QB Eli Manning has become a respectable starter and is coming off his best season. HB Justin Vincent is a new face, but he's only 28, and he has had 1000 yard rushing seasons for every team he's played for. He is no Larry Johnson, whom the Lightning will miss dearly, but with the rise of the WR corps, having a pure runner in Vincent can work out for the better. The biggest difference is the OL with their entire interior slated to have new starters once Claude Terrell returns from injury. I am not high on Terrell, but maybe he is just a player that will have poor stats but have a great, positive impact on the teams he plays for (yes I am being delusional). That defense should be better as well. That DL is high-rated but has underwhelming performances which lead me to believe that they are mostly run defenders. The LB corps includes #3 overall pick Anthony Barr and two veterans studs in Kawika Mitchell and Wesley Woodyard. Where we might see the biggest improvement is the secondary where CB Byron Maxwell and FS Louis Delmas keep getting better and better and they have a new starter at SS in Deone Bucannon. The Lightning have alternated between having Top 10 offenses and defenses for the last four or five seasons, but this is probably their best opportunity for a more balanced squad and an opportunity to win their first division title.

The team with the highest ceiling is probably the Falcons. They had a solid QB in Aaron Rodgers, they have a deep HB and WR corps. Their OL is the best in the division and got stronger and deeper over the offseason. That DL might be the lowest-rated in the division, but a lot of teams would kill for their starting DL to combine for 40 sacks, 5 FFs, and 6 FRs. That LB corps is old but outstanding. The secondary needs a bit of work, but they at least have SS Thomas Davis out there. I considered picking the Panthers ahead of the Falcons, but the Panthers have games against the Rams and Cowboys while the Falcons play the 49ers and Giants and have the better away schedule.

The Panthers are basically the same team as last season. Their only change was OLB David Thornton retiring and being replaced from within by OLB Sean Spence. With such glaring holes at OLB and less than ideal options at RE, #2 CB, and SS, the #3 defense from a season ago will certainly regress but not horribly so. Still, that puts a higher need on an offense that I certainly do not have faith in. QB Matt Ryan is fine if not an great player at the position, but he has regressed each season as a pro statistically. HB Reggie Bush proved me wrong by putting up a career high 1201 rushing yards, but I will need to see him repeat that to believe in him. WR Derek Hagan is not a #1 WR, but the rest of the WR corps is quite good production-wise for their ratings. I do not have many kind things to say about their interior OL, but they at least have the great Marvel Smith at LT and another OT in Andrew Whitworth who had a bounceback season. The offense won't be terrible, but I don't see why I should expect them to improve upon their ranking from last season (20th).They can compete for both the division and the wild card thanks to playing, so they should be in the hunt all season long.
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The Buccaneers must have been ecstatic to see #3 overall prospect QB Teddy Bridgewater fall to them at #17. He even has the luxury of throwing to WRs Nate Burleson and David Givens his rookie season. This team has a very nice blend of youth and veteran starters, but it lacks high-end quality in many areas, especially on defense where one player is rated 90+. They should have enough talent to be competitive, but if they want to compete for a playoff spot, Bridgewater has to have a good rookie season, the young OL has to develop alongside Bridgewater, and that defense cannot be a liability.
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NFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Washington Redskins
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Anaheim Lightning
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Atlanta Falcons

Playoff Contenders
7. St. Louis Rams
8. Las Vegas Pumpkins
9. Carolina Panthers
10. Green Bay Packers
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. New York Giants
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Maybe Next Season
14. Detroit Lions
15. Los Angeles Bears
16. Toronto Wildcats
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As a reminder, here were my rookie of the year predictions

Offense
1. Bucs QB Teddy Bridgewater
2. Browns HB Mark Ingram
3. Redskins WR Julio Jones
4. Dolphins WR A.J. Green
5. Bills QB Derek Carr

Defense
1. Lightning OLB Anthony Barr
2. Pumpkins MLB Christian Jones
3. Colts DE Bjoern Werner
4. Pumpkins ROLB Christian Kirksey
5. Bengals DT Michael Brockers

Now to see how horribly wrong I will be with rookies, divisions, and conferences.
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Do you have the data from last year to see how things panned out
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KCF0107 posted...

The single best unit in this division in the Ravens who have fielded Top 5 units in each of the past three seasons

Among the many grammatical errors and incomplete sentences I assume are in my writeups, this was meant to say "The single best unit in this division is the Ravens defense"
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S9

Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
1. Rams QB Ryan Tannehill
2. Ravens HB Doug Martin
3. Lions QB E.J. Manuel
4. Hawks HB DeMarco Murray
5. Lightning WR Demaryius Thomas

Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
1. Bengals MLB Kiko Alonso
2. Pumpkins LOLB Nick Perry
3. Redskins RE J.J. Watt
4. Pioneers DT Geno Atkins
5. Wildcats FS Eric Reid
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I agree with your offensive assessments as a whole, but I must both agree and disagree on the defensive end. I agree that they could regress from #3 since they probably overachieved to get there in the first place, but I disagree that it's a certainty. Most of my defensive players actually increased in rating. I did take a slight downgrade at SS and a decent one at OLB, but everyone else going up I would think would make it even out, especially the DL.

Of course, I also understand that you take actual ingame performance into account moreso than ratings while I'm the opposite, but there's no need for us to go down that road again, lol. I am at least glad you considered taking us 2nd.
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S9 AFC Conference Seeding Predictions

Playoff Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Washington Hawks
5. New England Patriots
6. New York Jets

Playoff Contenders
7. Oakland Raiders
8. Tennessee Titans
9. Denver Broncos
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Mexico City Browns

Dark Horse Contender
12. Columbus Pioneers

Perhaps Next Season
13. Kansas City Chiefs
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Indianapolis Colts
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S9 NFC Conference Seeding Predictions

Playoff Teams
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Las Vegas Pumpkins
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff Contenders
7. Los Angeles Bears
8. New York Giants
9. St. Louis Rams
10. Washington Redskins
11. Carolina Panthers

Dark Horse Contender
12. Green Bay Packers

Perhaps Next Season
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Anaheim Lightning
15. Detroit Lions
16. Toronto Wildcats
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I realize that I didn't do my darkhorse playoff contender for each conference, for which I actually have decent success with. Usually I pick a team that didn't make the playoffs for multiple years but is still a borderline playoff contender, even if they are on the low end.

I suppose that the Redskins/Seahawks/Lightning tie for the NFC and for the AFC, I guess that means the Hawks.
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KCF0107 posted...

Madden deemed the Lions to be the worst team in the league last season

fixed
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Though I am sure you are all hoping that I am horribly wrong with my predictions as I have only 4/12 playoff teams under user control.
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Bumpers
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Awe I thought week 1 was tomorrow not next week
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Bump
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My cousin died in a car wreck today, and I will visit my aunt and uncle later this week. I will let you all know if that will affect simming.
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Sorry to hear that. Take as long as you need man.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Sorry to hear that. Take as long as you need man.

Seriously this

So sorry for your loss
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Sorry to hear that kcf. My condolences.
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holy shit man

prayers to you and the fam hope for strentgh for you guys
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