Current Events > So now that the Kavanaugh nomination is effectively dead...

(+) Yeah! (+)

...I want to see Garland confirmed like he deserves.
>Democrats sweep in the mid terms
>Refuse to vote on Trump's appointee like the republicans did to Obama
>Appoint Garland once trump loses in 2020

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If Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed the most likely scenario is the nomination and confirmation of someone else before the new senators take office.
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So another person is accusing him of assault? Does this person have any more evidence than the first one?
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Not dead, no, just much less likely. Betting odds have him at a 35% probability of getting confirmed.
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AlephZero posted...

If Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed the most likely scenario is the nomination and confirmation of someone else before the new senators take office.

The Republican party is so fucking slimy.
>Mitch McConnell in 2016: "We can't vote on supreme court until after the election so the people can have a voice!"
>Mitch McConnell in 2018: "We have to hurry and vote on the supreme court before the people use their voice to vote us out!"

id laugh my ass off if they appoint someone even more hard right than Kav. he was one of the more moderate choices.

Manocheese posted...

So another person is accusing him of assault? Does this person have any more evidence than the first one?

1 person came out tonight, and another attorney says he has a claim that will drop soon. It is over.

Although I hate that Obamas pick was unjustly stolen away from him, I really dont want the precedent of obstructing picks for years on end to be further entrenched.
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Hairistotle posted...

What happened with the Kavanaugh thing besides Ford? Is it really dead? I doubt republicans care, no matter what he's done.

idk if its what tc was referencing but two other women other than Ford have come forward against Kavanaugh
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Hairistotle posted...

What happened with the Kavanaugh thing besides Ford? Is it really dead? I doubt republicans care, no matter what he's done.

This came out tonight, and another accusation is rumored to be dropping this week:
https://tinyurl.com/yc5hxtue

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.
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Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Cilolntro posted...

AlephZero posted...

If Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed the most likely scenario is the nomination and confirmation of someone else before the new senators take office.

The Republican party is so fucking slimy.
>Mitch McConnell in 2016: "We can't vote on supreme court until after the election so the people can have a voice!"
>Mitch McConnell in 2018: "We have to hurry and vote on the supreme court before the people use their voice to vote us out!"

God, Mitch is such a slimy fuck. A truly pathetic excuse of a human being.

_Rinku_ posted...

Cilolntro posted...

AlephZero posted...

If Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed the most likely scenario is the nomination and confirmation of someone else before the new senators take office.

The Republican party is so fucking slimy.
>Mitch McConnell in 2016: "We can't vote on supreme court until after the election so the people can have a voice!"
>Mitch McConnell in 2018: "We have to hurry and vote on the supreme court before the people use their voice to vote us out!"

God, Mitch is such a slimy fuck. A truly pathetic excuse of a human being.

This is his exact quote from 2016. What he did should be illegal. A miscarriage of democracy.

"The American people are perfectly capable of having their say on this issue, so let's give them a voice. Let's let the American people decide. The Senate will appropriately revisit the matter when it considers the qualifications of the nominee the next president nominates, whoever that might be," McConnell said.
https://www.npr.org/2016/03/16/470664561/mcconnell-blocking-supreme-court-nomination-about-a-principle-not-a-person

President Trump had like 20 people accusing him of assault and he still won. Kavanaugh just needs to survive the mudslinging for another week or two.
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Dark_Spiret posted...

id laugh my ass off if they appoint someone even more hard right than Kav. he was one of the more moderate choices.

Yo people say this shit all the time but in no way is even the possibility of reversing Roe v Wade considered "moderate" in any definition of the word in 2018.
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heard none of the people ford mentioned being at the party backed her up. the new accusers are probably frauds like her.
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This is the 3rd accuser who will come forward soon:

Manocheese posted...

So another person is accusing him of assault? Does this person have any more evidence than the first one?

Lol evidence
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Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Republicans don't care. They just don't want democrats in office.
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Sayoria posted...

Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Republicans don't care. They just don't want democrats in office.

That strategy is unsustainable in the long-run.

A third male student then exposed himself to her. I remember a penis being in front of my face, she said. I knew thats not what I wanted, even in that state of mind. She recalled remarking, Thats not a real penis, and the other students laughing at her confusion and taunting her, one encouraging her to kiss it. She said that she pushed the person away, touching it in the process. Ramirez, who was raised a devout Catholic, in Connecticut, said that she was shaken. I wasnt going to touch a penis until I was married, she said. I was embarrassed and ashamed and humiliated. She remembers Kavanaugh standing to her right and laughing, pulling up his pants. Brett was laughing, she said. I can still see his face, and his hips coming forward, like when you pull up your pants. She recalled another male student shouting about the incident. Somebody yelled down the hall, Brett Kavanaugh just put his penis in Debbies face, she said. It was his full name. I dont think it was just Brett. And I remember hearing and being mortified that this was out there.

Cilolntro posted...

This is the 3rd accuser who will come forward soon:

LMAO, the creepy porn lawyer is in the fray now? Democrats must be really desperate to smear Kavanaugh.
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At worst for liberals at the end of the day: pulled "politics" in order to delay the election of a shit bag like Kavanaugh.

At worst for republicans at the end of the day: get denied pushing their attempted rapist into the highest court of law.
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Sayoria posted...

Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Republicans don't care. They just don't want democrats in office.

Nobody does
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Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Republicans don't care. They just don't want democrats in office.

That strategy is unsustainable in the long-run.

Not if the Republicans continue to fight educating the public. They know an intelligent public = an anti-Republican one.
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Sayoria posted...

Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Cilolntro posted...

Sayoria posted...

Not happening. Low chance the senate will be taken. The house will probably go Democrat, but the senate is where the nomination matters. If Texas can elect Beto, then there's maybe a chance. Maybe. Only maybe.

I will say that this whole thing is a PR disaster for republicans and will be fresh in the minds of voters in 6 weeks. Trying to ram through an accused rapist onto the supreme court without even bothering to have an investigation isn't exactly how you appeal to voters.

Republicans don't care. They just don't want democrats in office.

That strategy is unsustainable in the long-run.

Not if the Republicans continue to fight educating the public. They know an intelligent public = an anti-Republican one.

The problem is how rigged the political system is. Trump lost the popular vote and shouldnt be president, and Gorsich stole the supreme court seat from Garland. The whole system is broken.

I think it is becoming pretty clear by now though that at the very least, Kavanaugh had a drinking problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S28iu6iEw0" data-time="

I honestly don't think Republicans give a shit about what this dude did, Roy Moore had like 80 something percent of alabama's republicans behind him,he only lost his run because minorities, specifically women came out and voted against him. I still remember the rage of that and how people took to the net saying they were all bused in from out of state by Soros
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Why are there people even defending Kavanaugh? There are plenty better people to nominate.

There's enough doubt in his past that he shouldn't be nominate for such a highly regarded position.

Dark_Spiret posted...

id laugh my ass off if they appoint someone even more hard right than Kav. he was one of the more moderate choices.

Mark Levin, please.

ITT: more wishful thinking. You should get a job with CNN.
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Lawl
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Cilolntro posted...

I think it is becoming pretty clear by now though that at the very least, Kavanaugh had a drinking problem.

That alone is no problem, provided it's "had" and not "has".
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CommonStar posted...

Why are there people even defending Kavanaugh? There are plenty better people to nominate.

There's enough doubt in his past that he shouldn't be nominate for such a highly regarded position.

They are defending him because they want to push someone through before they lose big in the midterms. They dont care how many people he has raped. They would put in Roy Moore if they could.

Back up to 40% probability of getting confirmed on predictit.
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If and when they regain power, Merrick Garland is not the judge Democrats should be pushing.

My take, personally, is that Kavanaugh will drop out, but Republicans will retain the Senate in November and confirm an equally conservative judge with less sexual assault in his background.
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FYI the third victims allegations are already out.

BLAKUboy posted...

Here's some insight on the allegation by Avenatti's client.

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1044032678951960576

BLAKUboy posted...

Also, the allegation supports this section from the New Yorker article.

After seeing Judges denial, Elizabeth Rasor, who met Judge at Catholic University and was in a relationship with him for about three years, said that she felt morally obligated to challenge his account that no horseplay took place at Georgetown Prep with women. Rasor stressed that under normal circumstances, I wouldnt reveal information that was told in confidence, but, she said, I cant stand by and watch him lie. In an interview with The New Yorker, she said, Mark told me a very different story. Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated. But Rasor was disturbed by the story and noted that it undercut Judges protestations about the sexual innocence of Georgetown Prep. (Barbara Van Gelder, an attorney for Judge, said that he categorically denies the account related by Rasor. Van Gelder said that Judge had no further comment.)

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BLAKUboy posted...

FYI the third victims allegations are already out.

BLAKUboy posted...

Here's some insight on the allegation by Avenatti's client.

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1044032678951960576

BLAKUboy posted...

Also, the allegation supports this section from the New Yorker article.

After seeing Judges denial, Elizabeth Rasor, who met Judge at Catholic University and was in a relationship with him for about three years, said that she felt morally obligated to challenge his account that no horseplay took place at Georgetown Prep with women. Rasor stressed that under normal circumstances, I wouldnt reveal information that was told in confidence, but, she said, I cant stand by and watch him lie. In an interview with The New Yorker, she said, Mark told me a very different story. Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated. But Rasor was disturbed by the story and noted that it undercut Judges protestations about the sexual innocence of Georgetown Prep. (Barbara Van Gelder, an attorney for Judge, said that he categorically denies the account related by Rasor. Van Gelder said that Judge had no further comment.)

Wow.

https://twitter.com/BrianKarem/status/1044225604932030464

In the immortal words of Vegeta: DO. I. HEAR. FIVE?!

There's also this.
https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1044233074609811456
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Hairistotle posted...

What happened with the Kavanaugh thing besides Ford? Is it really dead? I doubt republicans care, no matter what he's done.

> new accuser
> friend of his admit that his group basically took turns to bang drunken girls at parties

Antifar posted...

My take, personally, is that Kavanaugh will drop out, but Republicans will retain the Senate in November and confirm an equally conservative judge with less sexual assault in his background.

Supposing they can find one
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scar the 1 posted...

Antifar posted...

My take, personally, is that Kavanaugh will drop out, but Republicans will retain the Senate in November and confirm an equally conservative judge with less sexual assault in his background.

Supposing they can find one

I mean, they found Gorsuch
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Antifar posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Antifar posted...

My take, personally, is that Kavanaugh will drop out, but Republicans will retain the Senate in November and confirm an equally conservative judge with less sexual assault in his background.

Supposing they can find one

I mean, they found Gorsuch

Sure, but Gorsuch was before the empowerment of the metoo movement :)
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Possibly relevant.

https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1044234414035734528
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1044261686188920834
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BLAKUboy posted...

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1044261686188920834

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn30LAmXkAAyd2Q.jpg
Isn't it very illegal to extort a senator?

Is it fair to automatically assume that accusations like this are credible? Certainly it should be investigated, but to believe someone with no evidence just doesn't seem right to me. If we're going to believe this with no evidence, what is to stop political opponents from shutting each other down like this again and again?
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