Board 8 > Let's discuss the bracket, match by match

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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 4:45:13 PM
1
Hello Board 8. I'm Evildex. I've been a lurker on this board for years now.

I'll be posting a short analysis of each match in this topic, with an interval of time between each post, during which I hope some of you will provide your own thoughts. It should end up being similar to the topic currently being run by Leonhart4 (who is much more of a contest expert than I am.)

Let's get right into it.

Battle 1: (1) Dante vs. (16) Cuphead

Nothing to discuss here. Dante wins with 70%.

Battle 2: (8) Chloe Price vs. (9) Lightning

Lightning is weak in these things. She lost to Donkey Kong with a strong advantage from the format. She's a hated character from a hated game. Allen decided to place her against another often-hated female character. For those who don't know (and I can't blame you,) Chloe is the love interest from Life is Strange. A lot of people describe her in terms I can't repeat here. Lightning wins with 60%.

Battle 3: (5) Spyro the Dragon vs. (12) Chun-Li
I can see some people picking Spyro, but based on the respective histories of the two characters, Chun-Li should take it fairly easily. She once beat Lara Croft, while Spyro's only victory is against Clementine and Reyn. Chun-Li wins with 65%
VideoboysaysCube
10/03/18 4:51:35 PM
2
I feel like Chloe could have rally potential, where Lightening has really nothing going for her. But given this site, when in doubt, always go with the RPG character (and especially because of the new rules).
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 4:57:04 PM
3
Chloe catching a rally would be the necessary condition for her to win, yeah. My guess for Lightning's percentage is probably low if she doesn't, actually. I would take Clementine to beat her normally, and Clementine was phenomenally weak.

She does have the advantage that Lightning would be an easy character to rally against, but I don't think she's a great bet for a rally personally. Big rallies seem to require fairly specific circumstances, which is something I'll get into once we get to Monika's match. I think LiS is a bit too old. Here's a way of thinking about it: the game itself didn't really rally in 2015, when it was much more of a hot topic.
VideoboysaysCube
10/03/18 4:58:46 PM
4
By the way, who is Monika. Never heard of her or the game she's from. Where's her popularity coming from?
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pyresword
10/03/18 4:59:00 PM
5
Tag
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KujikawaRising
10/03/18 5:00:50 PM
6
It's four at a time.

Chloe's not being rallied on the opening day of the contest. Lightning has it. If this match were to occur a week into things, different story. This four-matches-a-day shit is the only thing I don't like here - keep it to two!

Dante, Chunners, and Ganondorf all take their matches in boring fashion.
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guffguy89
10/03/18 5:05:00 PM
7
I feel like Chloe has a slight advantage over Lightning. People seem to either love or hate Lightning, and that'll lead to some anti votes. With Life is Strange 2 coming out (even though she's not in it, the fanbase will be visiting this site), I feel like Chloe's got this one.

Also, I guess I'm the only one that thinks Spyro has a chance to win that match against Chun-Li? I guess I have to look more at the analytics on that one. I think I'm letting my own biases sway that decision.
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 5:11:53 PM
8
VideoboysaysCube posted...
By the way, who is Monika. Never heard of her or the game she's from. Where's her popularity coming from?


She's from a game called Doki Doki Literature Club. It's free on Steam, and when it came out (in September of last year, if I recall right,) there was a bit of buzz over it. Apparently the subreddit is still pretty active, so people think she has rally potential. Her base strength on this site should be close to bottom five levels.

guffguy89
Also, I guess I'm the only one that thinks Spyro has a chance to win that match against Chun-Li?


They've both been in the contests a couple times. Spyro has looked pretty bad (he barely got 10% in a four-way poll in 2007,) and 3D platformer characters have a long history of being really weak. Chun-Li has some half-decent results to her name, though mainly in the female half of the 2006 bracket, which is old and might have boosted her a little.
Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 5:30:24 PM
9
Battle 4: (4) Ganondorf vs. (13) Neku Sakuraba

Another really easy one. Ganondorf wins with 78%

Battle 5: (3) Vivi vs. (14) Yu Nakurami

Vivi wins with 70%

Battle 6: (6) Victor Sullivan vs. (11) Aya Brea

Once upon a time, Aya Brea nearly beat DK. Now she's in a debatable match against a character who by all rights should be pathetically weak. Nathan Drake has an embarrassing contest history. First he lost to CATS, then he lost to The Boss despite being a 2 seed. In 2013 he finally won a match - barely edging out Pac-Man.

Most of the time, secondary characters like Sully are significantly weaker than the hero. I know that Sully's in all the UC games, but I don't really think he'll be an exception to that rule. My guess is that he'll turn out to be a really weak character and that will be just enough to let Aya take it, but who really knows.

Aya wins with 55%
guffguy89
10/03/18 5:49:22 PM
10
I guess it's left to be seen if UC4 has boosted any of the franchise characters. The fact that he got in as a six seed shows people are nominating him. Sully is also a very likable character in the game.

But the thing is, you had to have played Uncharted in order to even consider voting for him. No one is going to vote some unknown old white dude over Aya, even if they don't know Aya.

So are there enough people that played Uncharted and would also vote for Sully over Aya....i don't know. I personally loved Sully, so I'm hoping he can find a way to win this match.
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KujikawaRising
10/03/18 5:53:34 PM
11
Sully is an awesome "mentor" character who is essential to the great dialogue in Uncharted - the banter between him, Drake, and Elena is always amusing. I think he might be able to take it provided enough people have played Uncharted 1, 3, or 4. Sadly, he's hardly in UC2 (even though that game is already plenty incredible).

I barely know anything about Aya Brea other than what she looks like, that ertyu talks about her a lot, and that she's from Parasite Eve.

The other two you brought up aren't really up for debate.
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 5:54:01 PM
12
Wasn't there a push for Sully here on Board 8? Does anyone else here know about this? That might partially explain his seeding. A lot of the time, seeds can be deceptive because of things like this.
pyresword
10/03/18 5:54:56 PM
13
He was one of the guru noms.
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OliviaTremor
10/03/18 5:57:54 PM
14
Dante vs Cuphead could be a super cool match if it wasn't the first match. I think if it was a bit later in the contest and there were more non-regulars voting it could be more interesting.
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ZenOfThunder
10/03/18 5:59:15 PM
15
im shocked that Metal Sonic got a (5) seed over Sully's (6) seed

I dunno if that was a fluke or if Metal somehow got more support than what i rallied
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 5:59:56 PM
16
guffguy89 posted...
Also, I guess I'm the only one that thinks Spyro has a chance to win that match against Chun-Li?


I'm taking the same pick.

I'm not taking a seed 12 over a seed 5 (those numbers indicate seed correct, I forget for sure?).

People don't care about Street Fighter as much as they use to and Spyro is still fairly popular. Plus Chun-Li is not Ryu.
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SwiftyDC
10/03/18 6:04:04 PM
17
Seeding doesn't really mean anything.
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 6:05:28 PM
18
SwiftyDC posted...
Seeding doesn't really mean anything.


I think it's somewhat close, so I'm taking the higher seed is what I meant to say.

I do have a few extreme seed picks, such as Wario over Monika.
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KujikawaRising
10/03/18 6:10:57 PM
19
Mozzezz posted...
Spyro is still fairly popular

I see fewer people talking about Spyro than I do Street Fighter. As far as I'm concerned, both never really left the 90s, but Street Fighter has more widespread nostalgia.
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 6:15:18 PM
20
KujikawaRising posted...
Mozzezz posted...
Spyro is still fairly popular

I see fewer people talking about Spyro than I do Street Fighter. As far as I'm concerned, both never really left the 90s, but Street Fighter has more widespread nostalgia.


But there seems to be more nostalgia surrounding mascot characters then there are fighting game characters.

Street Fighter hasn't been mainstream in a long time where as Spyro sort of has.

You also can't discount the seeding completely, and there is a pretty wide gap.

edit: I also agree that both games never truly left the 90s.
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 6:15:35 PM
21
I'm quite confident that Chun-Li will win that match. You'd have to expect a large swing in the strength of one or both of them compared to previous contests for Spyro to win. I don't think there's good reason to expect that. Hype for the Spyro trilogy remake won't do that much for him.
Mozzezz
10/03/18 6:17:59 PM
22
Evillordexdeath posted...
I'm quite confident that Chun-Li will win that match. You'd have to expect a large swing in the strength of one or both of them compared to previous contests for Spyro to win. I don't think there's good reason to expect that. Hype for the Spyro trilogy remake won't do that much for him.


But he also has Skylanders, he will take the young vote.
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RyoCaliente
10/03/18 6:24:29 PM
23
Thighs > dragon, sorry. Spyro might get a boost from the remake, but I think Chun-Li is just bigger.
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 6:42:15 PM
24
Remember that the average age of people who vote in this site's PotD is like 30. The child vote shouldn't be a huge factor in Spyro's favor.
CelesMyUserName
10/03/18 6:43:25 PM
25
Evillordexdeath posted...
Lightning is weak in these things. She lost to Donkey Kong with a strong advantage from the format. She's a hated character from a hated game. Allen decided to place her against another often-hated female character. For those who don't know (and I can't blame you,) Chloe is the love interest from Life is Strange. A lot of people describe her in terms I can't repeat here. Lightning wins with 60%.

roba gettin' wrecked from the op

good topic
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 7:06:20 PM
26
Evillordexdeath posted...
Remember that the average age of people who vote in this site's PotD is like 30. The child vote shouldn't be a huge factor in Spyro's favor.


Do you mean like the regular PotD?

Cause during the contests you can see some differences between the day and night votes, and the day vote is generally considered to be the younger crowd. They can change results.
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Evillordexdeath
10/03/18 7:13:40 PM
27
Battle 7: (7) Tidus vs. (10) Donkey Kong

This is a tough one. DK has never been a strong character, and a few years ago Tidus would be the favorite. For what it's worth, plugging them both into the X-stats almost always returns a win for the FF protagonist. Both of them looked decent in 2013. DK beat Lightning soundly with Falco bringing him down, while Tidus nearly beat Missingno, which then held up well on Squall.

I think it come down to how much weaker you expect FF to be now. If it hasn't collapsed too badly, Tidus should edge out the win. I'm inclined to pick him. I don't think FF we'll be as weak as some people claim. I think a lot of its failings in 2013 might be best seen as anomalies of the format and the year. That might be bias speaking, though. Tidus wins with 51%

Battle 8: (2) Leon Kennedy vs. (15) Dragonborn

We've seen the Dragonborn before, and he's not on Leon's level. Leon wins with 60%

Battle 9: (1) Zero vs. (16) Primrose

Primrose is probably a bottom 10 character. Being in an ensemble-cast game won't help her any. Zero wins with 75%

Battle 10: (8) Zidane vs. (9) Knuckles the Echidna

When I first saw this match, I picked Knuckles without thinking much. Leon predicted that Zidane would win in his topic, making the cogent point that Knuckles scored 52% against Cecil in 2010. That kind of score on Cecil does suggest a lose to Zidane. Meanwhile, Zidane lost to Ike in that same contest. Which would imply that Ike is soundly better than Knuckles as well. The whole thing feels kind of screwy to me. I don't know what to make of this one.
Mozzezz
10/03/18 7:41:31 PM
28
I'm also looking at the X-stats for Spyro vs Chun-Li.

I don't care what they say, fighting games have nearly completely collapsed as far as the mainstream goes. Plus Spyro also has other things going for him. Not changing my pick.
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Xeybozn
10/03/18 7:45:31 PM
29
Mozzezz posted...
Evillordexdeath posted...
Remember that the average age of people who vote in this site's PotD is like 30. The child vote shouldn't be a huge factor in Spyro's favor.


Do you mean like the regular PotD?

Cause during the contests you can see some differences between the day and night votes, and the day vote is generally considered to be the younger crowd. They can change results.

Are you trying to say that Spyro will take the match after the kiddies wake up, then? Guess we'll just have to wait until then.
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 7:49:52 PM
30
Xeybozn posted...
Mozzezz posted...
Evillordexdeath posted...
Remember that the average age of people who vote in this site's PotD is like 30. The child vote shouldn't be a huge factor in Spyro's favor.


Do you mean like the regular PotD?

Cause during the contests you can see some differences between the day and night votes, and the day vote is generally considered to be the younger crowd. They can change results.

Are you trying to say that Spyro will take the match after the kiddies wake up, then? Guess we'll just have to wait until then.


Kids plus nostalgia from older people, though I admit I still think it is a hard pick.
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-hotdogturtle--
10/03/18 7:55:16 PM
31
Mozzezz posted...
Street Fighter hasn't been mainstream in a long time where as Spyro sort of has.

Uhhh... no.
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 8:04:07 PM
32
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
Mozzezz posted...
Street Fighter hasn't been mainstream in a long time where as Spyro sort of has.

Uhhh... no.


?

Spyro with Skylanders has been sort of mainstream. Outside of games like Marvel Vs Capcom, which even games like that have sort of collapsed, people haven't cared about Street Fighter in a long time, probably not since Street Fighter 4.
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Lopen
10/03/18 8:04:40 PM
33
Has Spyro ever been mainstream?
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 8:08:04 PM
34
Lopen posted...
Has Spyro ever been mainstream?


Sort of, it was popular with kids for awhile as far as I know with Skylanders.
---
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 8:16:38 PM
35
Sorry, don't let me hold up the topic too much though, this is actually a minor pick in my bracket.

I have Mega Man facing off against Zero in later matches and that's one of the main fights I'm worried about, so the faster we get to talking about that the better lol (I have Mega Man winning where he faces off against him).
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Xeybozn
10/03/18 8:21:15 PM
36
Mozzezz posted...
I have Mega Man facing off against Zero in later matches and that's one of the main fights I'm worried about

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Mega_Man_vs_(4)Zero_2004
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mega_Man_vs_Weighted_Companion_Cube_vs_Solid_Snake_vs_Zero_2008
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Mega_Man_vs_(2)Zero_vs_(7)Charizard_2013

You're right, Mega Man/Zero would be a really tough match to call.
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Lopen
10/03/18 8:22:04 PM
37
I'm just saying that while SF5 isn't exactly a thing a lot of people care about compared to SF4 I'd say Spyro's peak popularity is probably not above SF5's
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 8:42:52 PM
38
Xeybozn posted...
Mozzezz posted...
I have Mega Man facing off against Zero in later matches and that's one of the main fights I'm worried about

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Mega_Man_vs_(4)Zero_2004
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mega_Man_vs_Weighted_Companion_Cube_vs_Solid_Snake_vs_Zero_2008
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Mega_Man_vs_(2)Zero_vs_(7)Charizard_2013

You're right, Mega Man/Zero would be a really tough match to call.


Thanks for the extra stats. Yeah, I think it is pretty hard pick.

Lopen posted...
I'm just saying that while SF5 isn't exactly a thing a lot of people care about compared to SF4 I'd say Spyro's peak popularity is probably not above SF5's


We'll have to agree to disagree on that one, even if it is only slightly. I heard next to nothing about Street Fighter 5 except for around when it was releasing. I've seen Spyro pop up in various places more frequently.
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SwiftyDC
10/03/18 9:37:59 PM
39
If you know who Ryu (SF) is you will know who Chun-Li is. She is like Scorpion and Sub-Zero, maybe not as iconic but I would take Ken, M. Bison, and Akuma over Spyro, too.

Blanka over Spyro, now that might be close. I'd probably pick Blanka there as well.
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Mozzezz
10/03/18 10:19:46 PM
40
SwiftyDC posted...
If you know who Ryu (SF) is you will know who Chun-Li is.


Ryu is still a half decent step above Chun-Li, that's why he's in Smash Bros.
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HarrietTubgirl
10/03/18 10:20:25 PM
41
Tag
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charmander6000
10/03/18 10:24:36 PM
42
Yeah, arguing that Chun Li is near Ryu is like saying Luigi is near Mario.
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dilateDChemist
10/03/18 10:32:54 PM
43
No way am I saying Chun-Li is on Ryu's level.
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Evillordexdeath
10/04/18 8:33:11 AM
44
Any comments on Tidus/DK and Zidane/Knuckles would be appreciated.

Battle 11 (5) Noctis Lucis Caelum vs (12) Master Hand

It's hard not to see this match and remember Master Hand's bout with Kuja. It's tempting to pick the hand just on the basis of that memory. He was a weak character back then - he went on to lose rather soundly to Robotnik.

This match is all about guessing how strong Noctis will turn out to be. I think he'll be weak - maybe even weaker than Lightning. It's hard to say if that would make him weak enough to lose this match. Master Hand might be stronger now or he might be weaker - I can't think of a good reason for either assumption. He's been in every smash game but his appearances are never all that exciting.

I think I'd take Lightning over Kuja, at any rate. I'd like to hear other people's guesses about Noctis' strength. For now, I think I'll lean toward him, because I think there should be enough space between Lightning and Master Hand to begin with. Noctis wins with 52%.

Battle 12: (4) Monika vs. (13) Wario

When this board discussed possible contest-winning rallies before the release of the bracket, Monika was one of the first names that came up. She has been given a nice winnable match against Wario, who has a history as one of the lowest rungs on the Nintendo ladder. It makes sense to compare her game to Undertale - at least out of all the huge rallies we've seen so far.

I don't think it will be Monika, and here's the main reason:

Undertale's release date: September 15, 2015
BGE 3's start date: November 5, 2015

Doki Doki Literature Club's release date: September 22, 2017
CBX's start date: October 19, 2018

Undertale was the latest big thing right in the middle of the contest - it had just been released a month and a half before. It was more of a hot topic then than it was a year later. I don't think that DDLR was ever as big a deal as Undertale to begin with, but people have had a full year to cool on the game - and to move onto something else. In my estimation, a small indie release won't be able to command a huge rally with that kind of distance.

I also think that Monika's natural strength will put her in the bottom five in terms of X-Stats. This site doesn't care about DDLR, and I don't really think that a "cute anime girl" people have never heard of will have the kind of appeal to make them vote for her. She definitely can't take Wario without a rally, so if you have her winning here, I suggest you also take her to win the contest.

Wario wins with 65%
Mozzezz
10/04/18 8:45:29 AM
45
Evillordexdeath posted...
Any comments on Tidus/DK and Zidane/Knuckles would be appreciated.


In the Zidane/Knuckles match I have Zidane, Sonic himself is the only Sonic character I really trust to do anything significant, and I think Bayonetta is the only other Sega character that really matters.

I have Tidus in the Tidus/DK match. I don't think DK can do anything to a significant FF character from X and before.
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guffguy89
10/04/18 11:11:09 AM
46
I have Tidus winning over DK.

As far as Zidane/Knuckles....we can't underestimate Knuckles. We all remember the Magus/Knuckles matchup. A lot of people seem to loathe Zidane as well. I'm going with Knuckles there.

My gut tells me Wario will win.
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Hbthebattle
10/04/18 12:34:30 PM
47
So do you think the rally target will be Bowser?
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Still hoping.
TsunamiXXVIII
10/04/18 4:27:40 PM
48
People still care about Dante? Well, I guess they must if he got a 1-seed, but honestly, the last time I remember DmC being relevant was that reboot or whatever it was that everyone hated. I was a little surprised to see Cuphead seeded that low given some of the other things that got into this bracket because I thought that it was a huge indie darling, but I was kind of happy to see an anti-vote magnet as his first opponent.

Come on, let's get some pic sabotage in the very first match. This is a realistic upset.
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Evillordexdeath
10/04/18 4:44:01 PM
49
I think Waluigi and D.Va are the most likely. I can't really see it happening for Bowser. To me it seems like people won't vote for the Bowsette meme when they're faced with the name Bowser and a picture of him in his regular giant turtle-monster form. I think that degree of separation will stop the joke from working for a lot of people. God willing, we'll be spared a massive rally this time. I wouldn't feel very confident in any of the possibilities if I were going for the "guess the rally" method.

Battle 13: (3) Yoshi vs. (14) Shantae

Free points. Yoshi wins with 80%

Battle 14: (6) Velvet Crowe vs. (11) James Sunderland

Both of these characters are newcomers, but we've seen their series in action before. They're destined to be weak. For instance, Jade Curtiss has the distinction of being last in the x-stats for one of the fourway contests. Silent Hill 2 and Pyramid Head have both appeared before and done very poorly. It's a tough call, because it's hard to say how strong Velvet or James might be in comparison to these counterparts.

I think Velvet will be pathetic. James at least has a reputation as a character and his game is well-respected, even if it isn't popular - which seems to count for something and might explain, for instance, Shadow of the Colossus' strength in these contests. James wins with 53%

Battle 15: (7) Pikachu vs. (10) Scorpion

Scorpion is a character who could easily win a match - or several - with the right placement. Pikachu is the kind of road-block he definitely can't overcome, sadly. Pikachu wins with 60%

Battle 16: (2) Kratos vs. (15) John Marston

It makes sense to suspect that both of these guys will be a bit stronger than usual. Kratos was well ahead of John before, so I don't think that will change. Kratos wins with 58%
Evillordexdeath
10/04/18 4:51:11 PM
50
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
People still care about Dante? Well, I guess they must if he got a 1-seed, but honestly, the last time I remember DmC being relevant was that reboot or whatever it was that everyone hated.


Devil May Cry V is currently in development. Some trailers for it came out around E3. They're giving the DmC universe the boot and bringing back the old white-haired Dante. That will probably generate a bit more goodwill toward him and make something like that a little harder to pull off than it would have been in '13, for instance. Personally, I just don't see Cuphead being able to pull in enough support regardless of what kind of pic Dante gets.
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