Board 8 > Let's discuss the bracket, match by match

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haloiscoolisbak
10/12/18 7:44:16 AM
101
When and how did Kirby become so strong?
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Started from the bottom now we here
SuperNiceDog
10/12/18 9:20:15 AM
102
Evillordexdeath posted...
Now we're moving into round 2. Needless to say, from here on there's some variation in the bracket. I might not discuss a match that you think will happen. I will try to cover variations besides the ones I predict, but feel free to post if you think I've missed a valid one.

Division 1

Dante, Ganondorf, Vivi, and Leon win their matches easily, regardless of who they're up against.


Lightning has a chance
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Raytan wins!
LinkMarioSamus
10/12/18 11:09:45 AM
103
LOL Lightning
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Evillordexdeath
10/12/18 4:43:08 PM
104
I do think that Shadow > Ness is a respectable pick. In Ness' defense, Big Daddy held up relatively well on Tifa and is actually ahead of Ammy in the X-stats, which also predict a close win for Ness against Shadow. Shadow is quite a strange entity in these contests, going from his close loss to Mario to losing to Tidus in one year, and in 2008 he even lost to Zidane. That's a significant one because Ness beat Zidane directly in 2007 (though he might have been helped by being the only Nintendo character in that poll.) After Earthbound and the SNES doing so well in 2015 it makes sense that Ness would do a little better than usual, while people's perception of Shadow only seems to get worse over time.

I can't really see the argument for Lightning. I'd have to hear the case for her.

Division 5

Battle 105: (1) Squall vs (4) Zelda


Squall is really strong in these things - comparable to Vincent, Auron, Tifa, and possibly even Sonic. He wrecked Yoshi in 2008, and easily dispatched Missingno in 2013. Zelda, for her part, is no slouch either, but if you compare their performances against Vincent and Aeris, Squall is definitely ahead. I think he should be the favorite. People are expecting a BotW boost for Zelda, and I'm sure there will be some effect, but to my knowledge it takes a long time for her to actually appear in person in that game. A principle in these things is that characters who only show up much later on tend to be very weak, so I expect the same to apply to boosts from new games. Zelda does talk to you using telepathy right from the beginning, but I don't think there will be enough of a positive association with her disembodied voice to boost her over Squall. Also, KHIII hype, boys. Leon wins with 53%

Battle 106: (11) Fox McCloud vs (15) Aeris Gainsborough


Back in the day this would've been an easy call for Aeris. The 2002 and 2003 stats project her to score around 70% of the vote. Fast forward to 2010 and that number drops to 50.5. We've had eight more years for Aeris to decline since then. The prevailing wisdom on this board is that FFVII will be much weaker now than it was in 2010, extending an observable trend that had been going since about 2003. I suspect that most people would take Fox now on the basis of that trend.

The tricky thing is that with such a long gap, we can't say for sure that the trend has continued. In 2015, the SNES dominated and FFVII looked pretty good, although Ocarina beat it soundly in the bonus poll. People mainly explain that dominance with the idea that GameFAQs' demographics have shifted toward the old, and therefore 90s games, and the SNES in particular, will dominate. But if that is true, it might revivify FFVII somewhat. Few things should be as closely associated with nostalgia for this site's userbase.

I don't like favoring Fox in a debatable matchup, because I've picked him out of fanboyism before and it's burned me. It's a difficult call, mainly because we don't really know what Aeris is worth today. She lost to Shepard in 2013, but Fox's own performance in that contest is even more humiliating. Aeris wins with 51%
Mozzezz
10/12/18 5:25:02 PM
105
I have both Fox and Aeris losing in the first round.
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"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Evillordexdeath
10/12/18 5:59:37 PM
106
I assume that Jill and Waluigi both make it to round 3 in your bracket, correct?

I think that if Walugi is there, he probably wins easily. Jill is close enough to Fox that she doesn't really change the writeup with Aeris. If it were 2003, Aeris would win easily, and today it's about guessing how far she has fallen.
Mozzezz
10/12/18 6:46:50 PM
107
Evillordexdeath posted...
I assume that Jill and Waluigi both make it to round 3 in your bracket, correct?


Yeah.

Evillordexdeath posted...
I think that if Walugi is there, he probably wins easily. Jill is close enough to Fox that she doesn't really change the writeup with Aeris. If it were 2003, Aeris would win easily, and today it's about guessing how far she has fallen.


I agree, I have Walugi going to the division finals.

I think since FF VII hasn't done anything serious in so long (I'm actually currently playing FF VII Crisis Core and it is a pretty good game, so just going off of that it's a shame, plus I pretty much have liked everything FF VII has done, including DoC) that only the two power characters, Cloud and Sephiroth, can really be taken seriously. Though I do have Tifa going to round 3 but she has some weak matches. I also even have Vincent losing to Magus, though I admit I am a bit worried about that match. I just think Aeris is too low on the totem pole of FF VII characters to really do much of anything at this point.

The Fox match with Jill is a little more risky but again it's a match of basically Nintendo vs every other platform, and though Nintendo is the majority on this website, I don't set it higher when you combine everyone else.
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"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
LinkMarioSamus
10/13/18 3:58:11 AM
108
Picking Magus to win that doesn't feel right.

With DK and Kefka redeeming themselves as of late, who are the biggest chokers we have now? Tidus and Dante?
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Mozzezz
10/13/18 7:34:37 AM
109
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Picking Magus to win that doesn't feel right.


But Chrono Trigger still gets mentioned a good amount on these boards, and many people are at least loosely familiar with the events surrounding Frog.

On the other hand, though I liked it, most people hated Vincent's main game and he wasn't enough to carry it. He also hasn't really been front and center with anything lately.

Magus did also wind up getting seeded much higher then Vincent.

I'm still not sure here though, I guess this is one match I could change at the last minute.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Evillordexdeath
10/13/18 9:05:40 AM
110
Vincent has historically been much stronger than Magus. The 2010 X-stats project him to win with 70% of the vote. Even the 2013 stats project an easy win for him, probably thanks to Metwo's run.

This is purely speculative, but I think that Chrono Trigger as a game will always get a lot more respect than its characters. None of the characters in that game, except Crono, really take a prominent position in the story. Even Frog completes his arc around halfway through - he's not that much more important than anyone else. I think this might partially explain why there's such a steep drop in contest power after Crono.

I think you have to bet hard on Vincent falling off a cliff for Magus to win, but at least it's only a one point pick, so you can take the risk - provided Vincent can't take down Auron, that is.

It bears mentioning that Waluigi's prospects for success are entirely rally-based. I don't see much reason to assume he'll be stronger than Wario. Even in 2013 Aeris is projected to double Wario.

EDIT: I didn't realize Waluigi was in the 2013 contest. He lost badly to Raiden in the first round. For what little it's worth, he's higher than Wario in the X-stats, and they project Aeris to score 62% on him.

Division 6

Battle 87x: (4) Auron vs (11) Vincent Valentine


Rather than strategic betting, like I was thinking of earlier, I would propose that the way to play this contest is to try and be as accurate as possible. Auron should have better odds. If Vincent turns out to be nearly as weak as 2013 made him look, Auron wins. If he doesn't, Auron still has a chance. I still think the upset is viable, but I'm too chicken to back it personally. Auron wins with 53%

Battle 107: (1) Geralt vs (13) Riku


Looking over his past performances, Riku's contest strength actually deserves a lot of respect. Going by the stats, his match with Hayabusa is a bit of a tossup - they should be close. Riku has the trump card of KHIII hype, which would lead me to favor him in that battle.

Geralt confuses things somewhat. He would have to occupy a fairly specific power range to defeat Hayabusa but lose to Riku, unless that KHIII hype has boosted Riku like mad. Of course, it's not a given that Geralt can beat Hayabusa to begin with, and I wouldn't be confident picking him to make the division finals. I imagine this is a bit of a hot take, but I consider him to have the best odds of anyone, so Riku wins with 52%

Battle 108: (3) Auron vs (10) Sub-Zero


Easy one. If Vincent is here instead, then he's still strong enough to beat Auron, and thus he easily beats Subby. Auron wins with 60%
LinkMarioSamus
10/13/18 9:11:46 AM
111
Riku might seriously outlast Sora this contest.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Mozzezz
10/13/18 12:49:20 PM
112
Alright you guys convinced me, I switched Vincent with Magus, but I still have Auron winning the next round.

I also wound up fixing up some of the matches in my finals while I was at it, but everything else pre finals so far I have kept the same.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Mozzezz
10/13/18 12:53:40 PM
113
I have Bayonetta beating Riku in the first round.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Evillordexdeath
10/13/18 8:38:53 PM
114
I think Riku's odds against Bayonetta are pretty good. Even after his bad match in 2013, he's projected to win with 60% against her - unfortunately, since Bayonetta hasn't been in any other contests, those are the only numbers we have.

Bayonetta made it into Smash and has seen the release of her second game since then. On Riku's end, KHIII is closer now. I wouldn't be too surprised if both characters boosted - though Bayonetta might attract some anti-votes from competitive Smash players because her design is really unhealthy for that game. That shouldn't be a big factor. Ultimately I think that Bayonetta is the type of semi-mainstream character who won't really do that well on this site - 2013 kind of makes it look that way - and she had a solid amount of ground to make up for before she reached Riku's level, so I would favor him. I also think that the results of Dedede, Pit, Lucas, Wario, Lucario, etc. show that being in Smash doesn't power characters up that much. I think it's related to the effect that I mentioned earlier with Chrono Trigger. Any given Smash 4 character is only one among like 50, so a lot of people who played the games won't have spent much time with them. Bayonetta was a DLC character in 4, on top of that, which reduces the number of people who were exposed to her through it even further.

One thing I failed to mention with respect to Riku: He and Ryu H. had two direct matchups in 2007. Ryu H won handily the first time around, because Roxas was in the poll as well - he actually surpassed the KH boys' total. Then Riku won in round 2, with Snake and Nightmare added in. That's a really weird result, and it probably doesn't tell us much except that they're close to one another in strength. I guess that's why the potential rematch was set up.
-hotdogturtle--
10/13/18 9:40:39 PM
115
Bayonetta has seen her second game, and her first game ported to practically every system, and the announcement of her third game. Not speaking to how much overall strength she has, but her Smash boost should be negligible compared to her natural series boost.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
LinkMarioSamus
10/14/18 2:35:45 AM
116
Except then Bayonetta 2 couldn't get 40% on Red Dead Redemption.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Mozzezz
10/14/18 9:06:25 AM
117
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
Bayonetta has seen her second game, and her first game ported to practically every system, and the announcement of her third game. Not speaking to how much overall strength she has, but her Smash boost should be negligible compared to her natural series boost.


This was pretty much my line of thinking, especially the porting of her first game. I barely considered Smash but did consider that her games are on Nintendo consoles. Plus on certain boards she has been talked about a decent amount.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
LinkMarioSamus
10/14/18 9:07:47 AM
118
My gut pick was Bayonetta getting to Round 4, then I just thought that looked so wrong and changed to her losing in Round 1, but Riku losing to Geralt in Round 3.

Both Kingdom Hearts games did really well in the games contest, even though the characters have been disappointing as of late.
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Mozzezz
10/14/18 9:25:06 AM
119
LinkMarioSamus posted...
My gut pick was Bayonetta getting to Round 4, then I just thought that looked so wrong and changed to her losing in Round 1, but Riku losing to Geralt in Round 3.

Both Kingdom Hearts games did really well in the games contest, even though the characters have been disappointing as of late.


I actually don't have her losing until the losers bracket, battle 139, against Sonic.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Mozzezz
10/14/18 9:28:46 AM
120
Mozzezz posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
My gut pick was Bayonetta getting to Round 4, then I just thought that looked so wrong and changed to her losing in Round 1, but Riku losing to Geralt in Round 3.

Both Kingdom Hearts games did really well in the games contest, even though the characters have been disappointing as of late.


I actually don't have her losing until the losers bracket, battle 139, against Sonic.


Also I have Geralt losing to Simon, but on second thought maybe I should think about that a little more. Though I probably won't change it, Metroidvania stuff is fairly big on this site.
---
"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
ZenOfThunder
10/14/18 9:39:24 AM
121
i have geralt over ryu cuz I think ryu's appeal is based on lookin' like a dope ninja, but geralt is a dope... witcher I guess

i also am not falling for smash hype, Simon will get a boost but he still isn't this site's cup of tea
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Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
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Evillordexdeath
10/14/18 9:52:15 AM
122
Ryu H should beat Simon without any trouble. They've both been around for a long time and Hayabusa has always come out ahead. Simon is a winless character.

There's a lot of guesswork involved with Bayonetta and Geralt. Riku too, given that it's unclear how important KHIII will be. I agree that Bayonetta's boost, to the degree that she gets one, is more about her franchise than anything. But I don't think it will be worth much. Bayonetta 2 did alright in the games contest, I guess, since it held up sort of well on RDR which then got 40% on SotC. But that isn't the kind of hype that should put her over Riku, let alone Auron or Vincent. Let's be reasonable here.

I think the top half of the division is a three-man race between Geralt, Ryu, and Riku, with Sans Undertale as the potential wild-card if he gets rallied. It's hard to imagine Bayonetta putting up 45% on Yoshi or bringing down Jill Valentine. I'm not that confident in Geralt either. I'm tempted to go back to taking Ryu over him.
Evillordexdeath
10/14/18 6:10:05 PM
123
Division 7

Battle 109: (1) Luigi vs. (4) Nathan Drake


Another easy one. Luigi wins with 60%

Battle 110: (3) Tifa Lockhart vs. (2) Mega Man X


Mewtwo could potentially be here too. If he is, either Tifa has fallen off or Mewtwo is the real thing. Only in the latter case can he challenge X - it would be a tossup in that case.

And so is this match. X hasn't been around for long, but he's nearly as strong as the original. In 2008 he held pretty close to Mario - however, Zelda and Luigi were in the same polls, and he still lost. Once Link came into the picture, he finished in 4th, behind Zack Fair.

That certainly indicates that he has a lot of fanbase overlap with Nintendo, like the original Mega Man. And that's significant, because in 2010 he scored higher on Link than Luigi or Sonic did. Then, in 2013, he beat Ryu head-to-head, while Draven crushed them both. In the bonus poll, he finished behind Mario and Crono by enough to make me doubt that he competes with Mega Man proper.

Tifa has finished in or near the top ten in the X-stats for every contest in which she has appeared. She has put up impressive numbers on Samus and Sephiroth in the past, and she's even ranked as #7 in the adjusted 2013 X-stats - above Cloud.

My problem with this match is that both characters' pedigrees contain a lot of things I don't trust. I wouldn't want to read the outcome based on one character getting SFF'd into the ground slightly less badly by Link than a Nintendo character and a fellow 3rd party whose games are now mostly on Nintendo consoles. I wouldn't want to try and predict the results based on Tifa's obviously anomalous ancient match with Samus or the adjusted-to-pointlessness 2013 X-stats either.

This is yet another match that's all about predicting how things have changed in the past ten years. Will FFVII have continued to decline? Will the site's demographic shift reverse its fortunes somewhat? Will Mega Man 11's release help X, and how strong is he compared to the original in any case? I don't really know. I've had them both in my bracket at different times. I think FFVII will do well this year, so far now I'll say that Tifa wins with 50.5%

Division 8

Battle 111: (1) Sephiroth vs. (5) Amaterasu


Veni veni venias, ne me mori facias Sephiroth wins with 65%

Battle 112: (3) Ryu vs. (2) Aqua


No less simple than Sephiroth's match, really. KOS-MOS could very well be here instead, and Ryu wrecked her before. Ryu wins with 65%
Evillordexdeath
10/14/18 6:42:47 PM
124
Alright, boys, this is the only day I have off work until the contest starts, so we're finishing this thing today. On to round 4.

Battle 113: (4) Ganondorf vs. (2) Leon Kennedy

I think that Vivi vs. Ganondorf is the perfect example of a trap match. In 2013, they have a direct battle which suggests that Vivi should annihilate Ganon. I love Vivi, so I would be happy if that were the case, but there were so many factors in Vivi's favor then that the match is obviously worthless. Vivi was rallied then, and Ganondorf had Mario hammering him down. If that match were run in 2010, Ganon would be the heavy favorite. The X-stats project him to win with ~58%

Dante and Leon could be here just as easily. I think that the upper half's winner beats the lower half's winner every time. Dante has beaten Leon directly and Ganon is clearly a step above Leon's level. Ganondorf wins with 56%

Battle 114: (1) Zero vs. (3) Yoshi


If Pikachu is here, he has a Pokemon game getting released on match day, which certainly can't hurt. Let's hope that Yoshi can take out the rat so we don't have to see its ugly yellow mug in the Legends bracket.

As for these two, you can plug them into the X-stats for almost any year and project a win for Yoshi. He wrecks in the 2010 stats and loses in 2007's. 2013 has him winning with 50.04. I'm inclined to think that Yoshi wins it out with a little help from a "Nintendo resurgence factor," though I'm not sure he even needs anything like that. I'm not confident picking him here when I'm not even sure he can beat Pikachu, though. Yoshi wins with 52%

Battle 115: (1) Sora vs (3) Alucard


There's a tone of possible variations in this division, but I think that the top half winner takes the division final in any case. Sora/Big Boss should be more than a match for Alucard/Kefka/L-Block, so if Red can hang with those two, he shouldn't have trouble here. If it does turn out as I predicted, Sora and Alucard had a match in 2005, which Sora won with 55% of the vote. Kingdom Hearts is Light, after all, which is bad news for a vampire. Sora wins with 55%

Battle 116: (1) Bowser vs (2) Kirby


Bowser edged this one out way back in 2005. But like Pikachu, Kirby spent a long time getting stronger in these. He has some very impressive wins from the 4-ways. He beat Sonic and even Sephiroth, with Cloud sharing the poll in the latter case. Sephiroth got his revenge in 2013, but the pink ball held close enough to make himself look very good in the process. Even there, the multi-way format clearly benefited him.

One thing I notice, when looking through Kirby's history, is that all his impressive performances have come when he was not exposed to the upper-tier Nintendo characters. He can shine against Metal Gear or FF characters, and even Sonic, but he's never been able to pull off a big win against someone like Luigi or Bowser. Stick him in a poll with DK, and he loses to Kratos.

If there is such a thing as rSFF, it probably appears within the confines of the strict Nintendo hierarchy, and if Bowser even needs that, it might be the factor that gets him the win here. All things considered, I'm more confident in him out of the pair of them. The dum pink ball loses with 48%
Evillordexdeath
10/14/18 7:12:53 PM
125
Battle 117: (1) Squall Leonhart vs (15) Aeris Gainsborough

Squall is well ahead of Aeris. He beat her no problem in 2007. There's also that 2008 poll where the Squall/Sora team dominated the Yoshi/Fox Nintendo Squad. Squall was first in that match - and Fox was last.

For all the variation this division contains, it should be another example where the top half is clearly stronger. Squall wins with 60%

Battle 118: (13) Riku vs (3) Auron


Unless Geralt turns out to be a monster, which I doubt, this division is the reverse. No one else has a shot against Auron/Vincent. Auron wins with 60%

Battle 119: (1) Luigi vs (3) Tifa Lockhart


This is Fox/Aeris with stronger characters. Tifa has always looked a little better. The game is all about guessing if FFVII will have lost enough power. Tifa wins with 52%

Battle 120: (1) Sephiroth vs (3) Ryu


Veni veni venias, ne me mori facias (gloriosa)
Veni veni venias, ne me mori facias (generousa)
Veni veni venias ... wait, people are actually talking about this one?

Okay, the time has finally come. Let's talk about Sephiroth.

To begin with, Sephiroth was arbitrarily removed from the legends. Allen took him out because he thought it would look a little bit better without two characters from the same game.

Sephiroth's fall from grace appears to be a deeply ingrained belief on this board. I even saw one poster, I forget who, call him "the weak link of the noble nine." Below Crono or Sonic! That fall from grace begins in 2006, when he narrowly lost to Snake in the Battle Royale - while Cloud was SFFing him into the ground. Then he lost to Snake and Kirby in 2008 - again with Cloud in the poll.

He lost cleanly to Snake in 2010. But there's one thing a lot of people overlook when they talk about that match: Sephiroth sacrificed himself to save us from Missingno. He lost to Snake (who has become very powerful) by about 5,000 votes with the help of the anti-voting that match earned him. Then in 2013, he lost to Draven and the "chosen one" Mewtwo. In other words, at least in my estimation, rumors of Sephiroth's death have been greatly exaggerated. Using the X-stats from Sephiroth's greatest contest embarrassments, he's projected to win this match with 58-63%. Only one character has ever broken 60% on Ryu in a 1v1: Cloud in 2010, who doubled him.

Mario or Samus beating Sephiroth? Sure, I can see it. But Ryu or Luigi taking him down? Let's not be animals here. Sephiroth wins with 58%

Sephiroth died for your sins.
Hbthebattle
10/14/18 8:52:43 PM
126
Infinitesimal Brain: Sephiroth will lose to (rallied character)

Small Brain: Sephiroth will lose to Link or Cloud

Medium Brain: Sephiroth will lose to a Noble Niner

Large Brain: Sephiroth will lose in his Division Finals

Galaxy Brain: Sephiroth will lose to Captain Falcon

Universal Brain: Sephiroth will lose to Richter
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Still hoping.
Evillordexdeath
10/14/18 9:40:41 PM
127
Battle 121: (1) Link vs Ganondorf

It's Link. I hope Ganon does make it here, because Link will pulverize him so badly that Dante and Leon will look weaker than 2B.

Well, not 2B in the stats, because she'll be behind Ness/Bowser, but you get the point. Link wins with 80%

Battle 122: (8) Mega Man vs Yoshi


If Zero is here, Mega Man will trash him. There are very few cases where the hero doesn't beat the supporting character, and Mega Man has won that match directly on multiple occasions.

Mega Man doesn't really deserve to be the 8 seed of the noble nine and has always been well ahead of Yoshi. The best chance to upset him is probably if Pikachu is here, but Mega Man doesn't seem to be very susceptible to Pokemon - he spent the 2013 wiping it from the face of the contest, including a win against Charizard where everything was stacked against him. Mega Man wins with 60%

Battle 123: (4) Cloud Strife vs Sora


No amount of KHIII hype can get the kid over this mountain. No reasonable estimation of Cloud's decline lets Red or Big Boss touch him either. Cloud wins with 70%

Battle 124: (5) Crono vs Bowser


I think Crono would have beaten Pikachu if Magus wasn't there. Bowser might be stronger, so this is the best chance for a legend to fall - or perhaps the second. Still, I don't see it, especially not after that 2015 CT run. Crono wins with 55%

Battle 125: (3) Solid Snake vs Squall


We've seen this one before. I strongly doubt any of the other possibilities will be stronger than Squall by enough to make up the difference between him and Snake. Easy call. Snake wins with 60%

Battle 126: (6) Sonic the Hedgehog vs Auron


Sonic holds up pretty well 1v1. I'm sure some people will call for an upset, just like they did with Ganondorf and Kirby. Sonic wins with 55%

Battle 127: (2) Samus vs Tifa


Look at that shiny number 2 beside Samus' name. It may seem odd, but she has consistently done very well in these. Snake deserved it more, since he beat her in 2013 and outperformed her against Cloud in 2010, but I suppose Samus does have that old head-to-head win against him.

But I digress. We saw this match in 2013, and Tifa didn't keep it as close as she did in 2006. Samus wins with 58%

Battle 128: (7) Mario vs Sephiroth


I'm tempted to call this one in favor of Sephiroth. He annihilated Mario twice over in the past. But that was a long time ago, and exaggerated though his fall may be, he's not the clear third place that he once was. The 2010 X-stats project that he will narrowly lose this battle. Now, that was the same Sephiroth who had Missingno's ghost hanging over him, but it wouldn't have happened regardless if it were 2005. The big problem is that Sephiroth is a character who goes through every contest with a target on his back. FFVII has been placed in a position where it can easily do very well this contest. Tifa, Sephiroth, and even Vincent have a good shot at winning their divisions, and Aeris could make it a few rounds deep. If that happens, we can expect a torrent of "FFVII always wins" complaining and more anti-votes than ever when Cloud and Sephiroth's big matches come around.

We have to hope that, for all these disadvantages, Sephiroth still has the pure strength that it takes to bring down Mario. I'd like to believe that, but I don't think I'm brave enough. Mario wins with 50.5%
hombad46
10/15/18 10:54:01 AM
128
Mozzezz posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
My gut pick was Bayonetta getting to Round 4, then I just thought that looked so wrong and changed to her losing in Round 1, but Riku losing to Geralt in Round 3.

Both Kingdom Hearts games did really well in the games contest, even though the characters have been disappointing as of late.


I actually don't have her losing until the losers bracket, battle 139, against Sonic.


You don't have her losing until the bracket you need to lose to get into?
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Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!!
Mozzezz
10/15/18 11:33:15 AM
129
hombad46 posted...
Mozzezz posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
My gut pick was Bayonetta getting to Round 4, then I just thought that looked so wrong and changed to her losing in Round 1, but Riku losing to Geralt in Round 3.

Both Kingdom Hearts games did really well in the games contest, even though the characters have been disappointing as of late.


I actually don't have her losing until the losers bracket, battle 139, against Sonic.


You don't have her losing until the bracket you need to lose to get into?


Yes, lol, I mean dropped from the contest.
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"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Evillordexdeath
10/16/18 7:54:53 PM
130
Battle 129: Ganondorf vs Yoshi

A bit debatable, but I'm inclined to stick with the Nintendo hierarchy and favor the Zelda character. Ganon wins with 52%

Battle 130: Sora vs Bowser


This is a rematch from 2010. Back then, Sora only scored 45.3. I'm not convinced that KHIII hype does enough for him here. Bowser wins with 51%

Battle 131: Squall vs Auron


Simple Square hierarchy match where Squall should have it. Squall wins with 55%

Battle 132: Tifa vs Sephiroth


Another 2010 rematch. Sephiroth won last time despite being glitched. I really don't think Luigi or X can take him either. Sephiroth wins with 60%

Battle 133: (1) Link vs (8) Mega Man


It's Link. Link wins with 70%

Battle 134: (4) Cloud Strife vs (5) Crono


It's Cloud. Cloud wins with 60%

Battle 135: (3) Snake vs (6) Sonic the Hedgehog


It's Snake. Snake wins with 58%

Battle 136: (2) Samus Aran vs (7) Mario


IT'S FREAKING MARIO. As an aside, if Sephiroth does make it here, I think it's very unlikely that he can't beat Samus too. Mario wins with 58%
Evillordexdeath
10/16/18 8:58:20 PM
131
Battle 137: Mega Man vs Ganondorf

Ganon can't leech this hard. Mega Man wins with 58%

Battle 138: Crono vs Bowser


Rematch. Crono wins with 55%

Battle 139: Sonic vs Squall


Sorry Leon. Sonic wins with 53%

Battle 140: Samus vs Sephiroth


I don't think there's a wide enough space between Samus and Mario indirectly. Samus wins with 51%

Battle 141: (1) Link vs (4) Cloud Strife


We've seen this match once or twice before. Link wins with 58%

Battle 142: (3) Solid Snake vs (7) Mario


Snake seems to have become the consensus #2 character in the view of this board. That's perfectly understandable, given his performance in 2013 and the apparent general trend of him growing stronger over time. I must admit to being tempted to jump ship to him myself, but I'm afraid that we may be falling into two pitfalls there, which I have discussed previously in this topic.

First, the assumed extension of old trends. It's been a long time since 2013, and some things appear to have changed. We're more obsessed with 90s nostalgia than ever, if the Games contest of 2015 is anything to go by. Metal Gear's reputation as a series has really tanked. It did poorly in both of the games contests which have taken place since Snake's 2010 run. First, the games nearly got routed by SotC. Then, they lost all over the place in 2015 - 4 to KHII, 5 to Dark Souls, and III to SMRPG. All of these matches might have been winnable once upon a time. So although this evidence is not exactly iron-clad, it's also uncertain if Snake will still be riding high.

The second pitfall is putting any stock into the 2013 contest. Mario lost in a horrible match, where he was specifically targeted, long before he met Snake. When Snake faced Samus, he was energized by being the chosen last hope to defeat Draven. So if you think Snake makes the finals based on 2013, I hope you have Mewtwo making a deep run as well. Snake had an easy path to the finals. He faced characters like GLaDOS, Kefka, and Alucard until he reached the semi-final, where he fought Pikachu and Squirtle at once, though he scored 51%, to his credit. Samus' path was very similar, by the way - only Mega Man overcame the hurdle of fighting a Pokemon while weighed down. Snake did extraordinarily well against Link in the bonus poll and he also outdid Samus' percentage on Cloud in 2010, but I suspect that he benefited from a kind of bandwagoning in both cases.

At first, I had Sephiroth beating Mario and the losing to Snake, since he lost that match in 2010. That didn't make sense to me, and I ended up switching over to Mario beating them both. Even after all that I've just written, I do think it's close and Snake pulling it out wouldn't shock me too much. But don't be surprised if he's not the #2 character you expected. Mario wins with 51%

Battles 143 & 144: Mega Man vs Crono & Sonic vs Samus


The hierarchy in both of these matches is pretty clear. Mega Man & Samus win with 55%
hombad46
10/17/18 10:39:13 AM
132
I don't really see the Noble Nine having a clean sweep this year tbh. Crono could have some real trouble with Bowser or Kirby or Charizard.
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Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!!
psaltery
10/17/18 4:46:22 PM
133
Good good! Yes yes! Thanks for ALL your bracket analysis. ;)
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Psalm 73:20: As a dream when one awaketh; so, O Lord, when thou awakest, thou shalt despise their image.
Evillordexdeath
10/17/18 7:50:29 PM
134
I definitely think it's possible for one of the Noble Nine to fall to someone outside it. Crono or Sonic, most likely, with perhaps a vague outside possibility that it's Sephiroth. Like with rallies, I don't like the odds of any single possibility enough to pull the trigger on them myself. Bowser/Kirby > Crono is a legitimate pick for those who are interested. Squall > Sonic is probably less likely but could still happen.

Battle 145: Cloud vs Mega Man

Perhaps there is some possibility of debate here, but my guess is that Cloud hasn't fallen quite this far yet. Cloud wins with 54%

Battle 146: Snake vs Samus


Snake outdid Samus' percentage on Cloud in 2010 and beat her directly in 2013, so there's no shortage of good reason to pick him. I think that this match is a tossup despite those results, though. In 2010 he faced Cloud after upsetting Sephiroth and people wanted to see him keep going. In 2013 we all abandoned Samus to rally behind Snake, hoping that we could take down Draven.

That was five years ago. We have to simply guess how much stronger or weaker each of these characters will be. Samus should be fine, since Nintendo is on a resurgence and she's finally had a new game that people like. It always surprised me that she did so well in 2013 despite Other M being her most recent game at the time. Snake is harder to gauge. I don't think Ultimate will do that much for him, so it's all about guessing what kind of impact Konami's public meltdown will have on his strength. Maybe it will make people more hesitant to vote for him, but on the other hand, it might give them some greater sympathy for him.

I consider Mario and Samus to be indirect equals, so for the purpose of this bracket it doesn't make sense to take Mario > Snake and then Snake > Samus. Samus wins with 50.5%

Battle 147: (1) Link vs (7) Mario


The 2002 final. Link wins with 65%

Battle 148: Cloud vs Samus


For most of the bracket selection period, I had Cloud making his way through loser's bracket to meet Link in the final. After eight years of contest drought, rivalry rumbles, and rallies, that would almost be a nice change of pace.

What I said about Sephiroth back during Sephiroth/Ryu applies to Cloud as well, except that he was the one SFFing Seph back in the day and he beat Snake in 2010. And perhaps the target on his back isn't quite as large or shiny as the one Sephiroth carries. Nonetheless, hating FFVII has been an incredibly enduring pastime on the internet. Remember that Gamespot Villains contest from 2010? General RAAM made a deep run in that one. Who's that? He's what passes for a final boss in the first Gears of War. No one remembers or cares about him. He advanced simply by virtue of being against Sephiroth in round 1.

In the past, and on this site, vote totals were so high and the FFVII duo so mighty that this didn't really matter. There simply weren't that many times when they were close enough to someone else for another site to throw their weight behind that opponent and bring Cloud or Sephiroth down. Back then, they could score like 60% on Mario or Samus. Now registered users here are abandoning them and we aren't numerous enough in any case to really support them, so 4chan or someone will be able to give Samus the win here if they want - and they probably will. If she still needs it in the first place. If Snake is here instead, it's all the same. Samus wins with 52%

Battle 149: Mario vs Samus


We've seen it before. Mario wins with 60%

Battle 150: Link vs Mario


You know, Nintendo icons would do well on any site. But Cloud and Sephiroth being gods? That was us. We've given up our identity as a site, and this boring final is the punishment we deserve. Link wins with 65%
hombad46
10/17/18 7:53:49 PM
135
I'm having Mario lose the Losers Bracket final out of the site's desire to not have the same match we just saw be the final. Still having Link win overall though
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Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!!
CelesMyUserName
10/17/18 7:55:49 PM
136
one of these days Samus vs Mario will spill the correct way
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somethin somethin hung somethin horse somethin
Evillordexdeath
10/17/18 7:56:25 PM
137
Who do you have in loser's finals against him? A factor like that might put Snake or Cloud over the edge against Mario, but I don't think it would be enough to get Samus the win over him, just because he buries her so much in SFF.
PoIl6177
10/17/18 8:14:11 PM
138
Evillordexdeath posted...
You know, Nintendo icons would do well on any site. But Cloud and Sephiroth being gods? That was us. We've given up our identity as a site, and this boring final is the punishment we deserve. Link wins with 65%

Or maybe we should stop voting for characters who died 20 years ago? Just a thought.
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9/2/2013, the day Reddit hacked GameFAQs
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Mozzezz
10/17/18 8:23:12 PM
139
I agree that FFVII has lost a good amount of its power, and it will affect some of the characters, but I don't think it will be enough to affect Cloud.

I just think the top 8 or possible noble 9 characters that we all know about are just so many leagues above the other characters that normal stuff won't really bring them down, basically normal rules don't apply to them.

I think there will be a point when people almost completely abandon FFVII and the games that surround it, and everything will be focused on later games in the series, but I don't think that will happen for a few gens in any way that would affect Cloud.
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"Lower your guard and you will allow the enemy in." - Frog from Chrono Trigger (the original alt frog).
https://imgur.com/hSc6hOs
Evillordexdeath
10/17/18 8:37:04 PM
140
One thing that gave me pause was that Sephiroth would've lost to Kirby in 2013 if only registered users' votes counted. It just seems very hard to have faith in him or Cloud with the loss of vote totals and that apparent apathy toward them from people here. I still don't think they'll lose to lower-rank characters like Ryu or Luigi or even Mega Man, but I do think it's enough to let Samus/Mario/Snake bring them down.
Rad_Dudesman
10/17/18 8:42:36 PM
141
Pikachu's gonna be the winner
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Nintendo Network ID: raddudesman
hombad46
10/18/18 10:23:24 AM
142
Evillordexdeath posted...
Who do you have in loser's finals against him? A factor like that might put Snake or Cloud over the edge against Mario, but I don't think it would be enough to get Samus the win over him, just because he buries her so much in SFF.


I realize its a long shot but I have Sora winning the losers bracket. Im hoping hell be rallyable this year and picking safe options is no fun. Except Link, I still have him winning overall.
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Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!!
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