Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket: Part 2!

(+) Yeah! (+)

In case the first topic fills up while I'm at work.

Plus, it'll be good to start a new topic for the Double Elimination section of the bracket.
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488 already, so yeah, tag
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Tagging with my main account
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tagging with my only account
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Finals Division

(1) Link
(3) Vivi

Relevant poll (mostly just for laughs): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1750-hyrule-division-round-2-link-vs-ganondorf

He come to town.

Winner: Link
Odds: LOL

(8) Mega Man
(1) Zero

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1768-20xx-division-semifinal-mega-man-vs-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3296-division-5-final-mega-man-cube-snake-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5261-character-battle-ix-division-9-final-mega-man-vs-zero-mmx-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-3-runners-up-battle
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2121-20xx-division-final-mega-man-vs-yoshi

I'm actually really curious to see how well Zero holds up 1-on-1 now after their original match. Mega Man needed him to fold in multi-way matches in 2008 and 2013, and so he did, so I don't take that as an indication of a widening gap. I think Zero will hold up like a champ again, but he can't really win.

If it's Yoshi or Pikachu, Mega Man's beaten both of them, too! Not exactly a fair scenario for Pikachu, but he looks pretty clearly weaker there for whatever it's worth. You could give him a small shot if something weird happens. Yoshi would have no chance though. I think he only gets here if both Zero and Pikachu totally flop anyway.

Winner: Mega Man
Odds: 100%

(4) Cloud Strife
(4) Big Boss

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3297-division-6-final-squall-sora-cloud-mewtwo

Cloud has fallen off quite a bit in the last decade or so, but he hasn't fallen this far, at least not yet. I think Big Boss can put up a good fight and look respectable in defeat. If Sora's here, it'll probably get ugly, as that poll demonstrates. I can't imagine Red can pull it off either. People might want to point to RR, but Red/Blue together is stronger than Red alone (which I think is pretty obvious, but hey, figured I should cover all my bases!).

Winner: Cloud
Odds: 100%

(5) Crono
(1) Kirby

Now this one has the potential to be interesting if Crono hasn't gained anything from 2015's CT boost. Crono/Pikachu/Magus in CBIX seemed to indicate that Pikachu would've won that match even if you take Magus out of that poll. Multi-way matches can be wonky though, so I don't like using them as an absolute metric. It makes for an interesting hypothetical though because I'd take Kirby over Pikachu without thinking twice. Crono's only won one match since 2008 (now granted we've only had two Character Battles in that time before now but still), so he's got the most to prove out of the eight automatic byes.

Kirby's a really sexy upset pick because he's beaten Sephiroth and Sonic in multi-ways, and if there's one thing we've seen about him over the years, he absolutely does not fold. Even if he loses, I expect him to put him 45%+ here. I think this is a fairly close match regardless of the result. I think I give Crono a slight advantage because of a combination of past history, perhaps a CT 2015 carryover boost, and the fact that he'll be the bracket favorite by default (although Kirby's got such an easy division that he'll probably still have plenty himself).

Winner: Crono
Odds: 55%
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Red will defeat Cloud just because...because

Pokemon Trainer returning to Smash = Ultimate boost...!
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I've seen people complain multiple times that Pokemon Trainer Smash pics actually hurt Red because many Pokemon fans don't consider them the same person
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If you want to sabotage Red, give him a picture from the upcoming Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu game.
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Also for the record I think there may be some legitimacy to that claim about Red. I still think part of the reason Solid Snake's weakest year was 2004 was because he kept getting Naked Snake pics and everyone knew that was Big Boss. He put up his worst performance against Knuckles by a good bit that year (remember getting Snake/Knuckles every contest the first three years?) I mean, I think the result was fairly minimal since it's not like he gave up 45% to Knuckles or got obliterated by Mega Man (beyond the Ulti definition of the word anyway), but he did do noticeably worse against both.

The Tanner result happened with an MGS2 Solid Snake pic, too, for what that's worth.
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I feel like Crono probably benefits as much as anyone from the whole registered user double vote thing (since Link doesn't "benefit" besides getting larger margins of victory), which should help him fend off Kirby who probably also will usually be getting support there
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Well, Chrono Trigger is one of the only Square entities that has a good board vote (along with FFVI), so you might be right.
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Tag
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(3) Solid Snake
(1) Squall Leonhart

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/955-east-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2539-patriot-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2922-tournament-quarterfinal-snake-l-block-sonic-squall
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3848-gear-division-final-solid-snake-vs-squall
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2102-gear-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-zelda

darn it Allen

Winner: Snake
Odds: darn it Allen

(6) Sonic the Hedgehog
(3) Auron

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3299-division-8-final-auron-sonic-sephiroth-kratos
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2543-blast-division-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-vincent

As someone who successfully called Auron > Sonic in 2008 (</humblebrag>), I don't think he wins this time. I think 2008 was a low point for Sonic Team as a whole. Sonic looked better in 2010 and 2013, and he's actually had multiple well received things in the last decade (Sonic Colors, Sonic Generations, and Sonic Mania, and Smash if you want to count it, I guess). I think that's enough to get him over the hump here, but Auron will probably keep it close. He's got a shot to win just because he's done it before, but I don't think his chances are particularly high.

Now if Vincent's here instead, that would mean he's legit again, and you can see what he put up on him at perhaps his peak. That one would be kinda scary for Sonic, but I think it's unlikely unless FFVIIR hype turns out to be real (and I think that's really unlikely).

Winner: Sonic
Odds: 75%

(2) Samus Aran
(1) Luigi

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2555-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-aran-vs-tifa-lockhart
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259-character-battle-ix-division-7-final-samus-vs-l-block-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2911-division-1-final-mega-man-yoshi-samus-scorpion
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2919-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-mega-man-cloud-ryu

This is one of the rare Nintendo/Nintendo powerhouse matches we've never seen before in any format! I remember people taking Luigi to beat Samus in 2003 (and then Squall > Luigi happened aw yeah). Of course, that won't happen here either, but I like Luigi to hold up against Samus and not suffer too much SFF. I'd consider breaking 40% on her to be a victory for Weegi since that's what peak Ganondorf managed in 2005.

Now we've seen Tifa nearly break the Noble Nine in 2006 and hold up really well in 2013 (almost 45% on Samus is really good in case you were wondering). The third time's the charm, as they say...! Seriously though, I don't like Tifa's chances to actually win, but I'd fully expect her to hold up like a champ.

If Mega Man X is here, I don't see him winning either because Samus has beaten Mega Man easily twice before, and I don't think X is worth more than Classic.

Mewtwo is a fraud and all that.

Winner: Samus
Odds: 100%
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What if it's Bowser vs Crono!!
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Sonic and Mega Man both looked really off in 4-ways. I think there's some merit to the idea that they're a little weaker in that format because, while everyone knows them, not nearly as many people have them as their favorite.
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pjbasis posted...

What if it's Bowser vs Crono!!

oh right

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2545-time-division-round-2-crono-vs-bowser

keep in mind that this is the Crono who lost to Sonic and let Auron put up 45.5% on him

SC2K5 Bowser was a fraud
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KamikazePotato posted...

Sonic and Mega Man both looked really off in 4-ways. I think there's some merit to the idea that they're a little weaker in that format because, while everyone knows them, not nearly as many people have them as their favorite.

Well, I think Sonic and Mega Man both looked better in 2013 than they did in either 4-way year (well except for Sonic's mid-contest Brawl boost temporarily helping him in 2007 anyway). Mega Man couldn't beat friggin' Weighted Companion Cube in 2008 because of Zero.
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I have a feeling at least one of the Noble Nine will not win their initiial match (probably Crono or whoever faces a rallied opponent)
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(7) Mario
(1) Sephiroth

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1363-south-division-final-mario-vs-sephiroth
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2130-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-sephiroth-vs-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2913-division-3-final-sephiroth-fox-mario-big-boss
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2920-tournament-quarterfinal-sephiroth-mario-link-vincent

As an aside, I think Sephiroth's wins over Mario in 2003 and 2005 are seriously two of the most impressive wins in contest history. I mean, I know 2003 Mario was weaker than he is now (and he might have been suffering some backlash from Mario/Crono II's controversial ending), but my word, Sephiroth only did less than 1% worse than what Link SFF'd him down to in the 2002 finals. In 2005, Mario dominated the contest for two months while Sephiroth wasn't even in the contest, and he destroyed him (in true Ulti fashion). Mario won two 15 minute updates the entire match! Two!

That match is also why I kind of think getting a bye to this point in the contest is extremely helpful because Seph had a massive bracket advantage over Mario in 2005 (I mean, he would've won anyway, but still). Mario gets a chance to turn the tables on him here. If he can't beat him now, he literally never will because Sephiroth is his Kryptonite. I'm almost kind of rooting for Seph because of their history since I'm sure no one's giving him a chance here (and for good reason). I think Mario hasn't looked that good since beating Samus in 2005, but he's been able to hide behind SFF just about every year, so it's hard to say. Of course, he's got plenty of reason to look good now with the advent of the Switch and Odyssey being extremely well received. But then again, so were both Galaxy games, and I dunno that they did much for him...!

Winner: Mario
Odds: 75%

Losers Bracket

(3) Vivi
(1) Zero

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3285-division-5-round-2-ryu-h-zero-snake-vivi

Vivi very nearly upended Zero in that one poll, and he wasn't far behind him in the 2010 X-Stats. He was clearly ahead of him in 2013, but yeah. If Dante is here instead, I think we'd be in for a good match there, too, because he went 50/50 with Ryu in 2010 (thanks to GOLD MEDAL HOCKEY FACTOR aw yeah). Dante and Ganondorf are both usually ahead of Zero in the X-Stats, actually, for what it's worth. I think Vivi is probably the least likely to win of anybody, and I'm already second-guessing my choice to have him here.

But going back to Division 1 for a minute, another reason to maybe pick Vivi is that it is absurdly easy to pic sabotage Dante and Ganondorf and it's virtually impossible for Vivi to look bad in a match pic.

(Seriously though, guys. No pic sabotage. It doesn't make anything better.)

Winner: Zero
Odds: 25%
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(4) Big Boss
(1) Kirby

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3268-division-7-round-1-big-boss-jinjo-kirby-lucas
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3288-division-7-round-2-big-boss-kirby-m-chief-raiden
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5255-character-battle-ix-division-3-final-sephiroth-vs-big-boss

These two have quite a history together despite Big Boss not even being that strong until we discovered the power of the Naked Snake pic (I remember people getting legitimately mad at Big Boss beating Magus because of that because they were saying there's no way to make accurate predictions when we can't know what pics characters will get. That seems so tame compared to Vincent Vega Valentine in CBIX). The strange thing is that it hasn't really mattered since then, as if everyone suddenly made the connection. Big Boss probably would've beaten Kirby in round 2 in 2008 if Raiden's not there, and he had an old man pic there!

This will be the first time they're facing 1-on-1, so I'm pretty excited about that. Big Boss looked to be just slightly below Luigi and Kirby in CBIX, so this match isn't out of his reach. It's been 5 years, after all. It wouldn't take much shifting for the match to be in his favor now. I think I'd probably lean toward Kirby here, but I don't really know how much MGSV helps Big Boss, if at all. It was considered a disappointment by many, but there's a sizable portion of the MGS fanbase who thinks it's the best one (or at least darn close).

Massive MGSV spoilers Now we can get into arguments about how Venom Snake isn't really Big Boss, but that's never mattered for the purposes of this contest. I mean, Snake was clearly stronger in 2005 after MGS3 despite the main character being Big Boss, and Liquid Snake seemed to get the bigger boost from MGS4 in 2008 despite it actually being Ocelot, so the fanbase isn't too picky about these things!

Again, I think in a debated match, you're better off leaning Nintendo, but I think either character can win.

Winner: Kirby
Odds: 55%

(1) Squall Leonhart
(3) Auron

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3839-gear-division-round-3-auron-vs-squall

I took HaRRicH's sig because of this match in 2010, and this year I'll take everyone's sigs (after I win the Guru, naturally)! Seriously though, unlike Squall/Vincent, I don't see too much reason for there to have become a bigger gap between these two. Squall won with a little less than 52%, so it's not like it would take much of a shift in eight years for things to swing over to Auron's favor.

But everyone knows I'm picking Squall, so whatever. I do give Auron a good shot at winning the rematch though just because the first one was so close.

Winner: Squall
Odds: 60%

(1) Luigi
(1) Sephiroth

This could be the ultimate indignity if Sephiroth gets beat down by Mario and then eliminated by the little brother! As seen in the poll for Kirby/Big Boss, Kirby came awfully close to Sephiroth in that match, and Luigi's been on his level, if not a little stronger, since 2006. I think this is a great upset if you're looking for one (heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Luigi ends up being the Guru favorite here, actually). Nobody trusts Sephiroth anymore. He can definitely still win though. I think this one is a legit tossup, so just go with your gut.

Also, if Ryu is here instead, Luigi probably wins anyway because Sephiroth will have lost because he's just fallen THAT MUCH, not because Ryu has suddenly boosted up to Noble Nine levels.

Winner: Luigi
Odds: 50%
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LeonhartFour posted...

Winner: Kirby

"You're picking him?"
"Allen, I'm already a midcarder."
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I might waffle back and forth on that one. I'd love to see Big Boss win that.
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Luigi is not that strong. Ryu or Sephiroth will win no matter who is there against him.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Luigi is not that strong. Ryu or Sephiroth will win no matter who is there against him.

you're joking right

Luigi faced Big Boss with Ness holding him back and almost won anyway

He's at least as strong as Kirby, or he was.
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I'd take Luigi over Ryu. Not Sephiroth though.

he can't have fallen that far could he
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Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link.
Luigi (2013c) has a strength of 36.57 against Base Link.

Sephiroth52.98%28,590
Luigi47.02%25,370
TOTAL VOTES53,960
Sephiroth wins with 52.98% of the vote!
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If you extrapolate out Seph/Kirby/Big Boss, Kirby got 47% against Sephiroth.

Of course, 3-ways are wonky, but that's a winnable match if that result has any legitimacy to it and Sephiroth has fallen even more in the last five years.
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Also let's not beat up on Sephiroth too much.

He still ranked ahead of Cloud in the 2013 stats, so he's got that going for him!
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also I've talked a few times about characters with the auto-byes having an advantage here with brackets

but I totally forgot that Second Chance Contest for the Double Elimination round is a thing so that kind of negates their advantage
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Picking that god forsaken loser's bracket is going to be such a hassle.

I have the weirdest finish, I have Sans beating Link the first time then losing the return leg.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Also let's not beat up on Sephiroth too much.

He still ranked ahead of Cloud in the 2013 stats, so he's got that going for him!

well Sephiroth gets derived from Mewtwo (fraud) instead of Squirtle so it was bound to happen!

I mean it's hard to justify Cloud's performances as good in any way though. Squirtle undoubtedly bandwagoned/rallied past him, but Cloud had to be sufficiently weakened for that to matter in the first place.
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like I don't think Squirtle beats Solid Snake for instance if he's in Cloud's place there

he was too strong that year for it to matter in that spot
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Honestly I think 2013 was just wonky all together.

I can buy Ryu catching up to Seph from Smash, but Kirby/Luigi are not beating him.

And I do think he's just Mario's kryptonite. He is the complete and total anti-Mario. Black and silver vs. vibrant red and blue.
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Man, Kirby and Luigi have been better than Ryu for a few contests now. I don't think Smash 4 matters for Ryu (or Cloud, really, for that matter) anymore.

honestly the only person I think who could really benefit from Smash Ultimate is--you guessed it--Solid friggin' Snake again

There was a reason they saved the EVERYONE IS BACK tagline for his appearance in that trailer.
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Please, I have standards. I derived nothing off of Mewtwo's nonsense.

Cloud was derived off of his performances on Prinny and Frog, while Sephiroth was derived against his performances on Midna and Morrigan. It really boils down to this: both of them sucked, and Cloud actually sucked slightly more. There's really no excuse for stuff like Frog getting 36% on him.
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Yeah, Cloud/Frog is bad for him no matter how you slice it.

although honestly Frog seems to have resisted decline way better than Crono or Magus have
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Character that is most likely to benefit from HYPE is Dante, I think. Returning him to classic form is a pretty big deal. It's a revival of the character in more ways than one.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, Cloud/Frog is bad for him no matter how you slice it.

although honestly Frog seems to have resisted decline way better than Crono or Magus have

I secretly hacked the site to play his music on the front page when he's in a poll
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Well, I was talking exclusively Smash stuff. I don't expect Simon Belmont or whoever to really derive any hype from it.

People are legitimately excited about Snake coming back though. I pre-ordered Ultimate as soon as I saw he was in it.
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Also it bears repeating that Tifa's results in 2013 were consistently insane. Strongest FF7 character, let's do this. Edgey 13-year old feelings towards Sephiroth walking through the flames are transient, but TJF is eternal.
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Can I just say that I fucking love talking about the contests, specifically with you two.

It is a PLEASURE to get to nerd out about this stuff with you two again.

Furthermore, HOW ARE YOU gonna talk about characters being hype beasts and leave out Sora, who just got a PS4 release of EVERY SINGLE TITLE in his series and has probably the most anticipated game of all time coming out?

Plus he's got a winnable division.
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Yeah I agree with you on Snake getting helped there. It helps that, like Dante, it's a sort of revival of the character. MGS is dead in the water and seeing Snake again is really nice.
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I had Luigi > Sephiroth in Loser's in my initial bracket but have chickened out since then.

I definitely think there's a shot though.
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I was actually kinda serious when I said Tifa being every gamer's first gamer crush actually kind of matters!

voters can look back on Tifa with nostalgia because of that in a way they can't with Cloud or Sephiroth
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Panthera posted...

I secretly hacked the site to play his music on the front page when he's in a poll

One of the only failures of this mostly immaculate bracket is that we didn't get a Frog/Master Chief rematch.

because Frog's theme is life
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