Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 200: Sayonara Nimrata

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pyresword
10/11/18 11:31:02 PM
53
LetsGoSquirtle7 posted...
Ive never said to outright take votes.

Ive just said I have no problem with grouping them together so they mean less.

What is the difference between these two?
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Corrik
10/11/18 11:31:21 PM
54
UltimaterializerX posted...
Actual things that CNN called Kanye West today:

"negro who can't read"
"token negro"

These are exact quotes. I refuse to even link to the videos because those people don't deserve the hits. They're very, very easy to find though.

The left's blatant racism toward black conservatives is why I laugh at their constant race baiting bull. They in no way care about minorities past getting their vote. Today should have been the ultimate proof to anyone with a lick of sense. If you want to see the most vile racism out there, go read Candace Owens' twitter responses. I already knew this was the dark side of the democratic party, but seeing it go 100% mainstream today, in a weird way, was nice. They can't pretend to not be vile racists anymore.

And I felt equally sick over the Obama lynch effigies, so don't even try.

They had to shut down a thread on ResetERA for bashing Michelle Obama because she said she was basically friends with Bush and "partners in crime" with him.

Apparently she is now a rape apologist and supports war crimes or such for saying that. Lolol.
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LetsGoPikachu25
10/11/18 11:34:20 PM
55
pyresword posted...
LetsGoSquirtle7 posted...
Ive never said to outright take votes.

Ive just said I have no problem with grouping them together so they mean less.

What is the difference between these two?


We've gone over this before...

One is ACTUALLY taking your vote.

The other is just making it mean less in a group. Which is exactly what the electoral college is, where someone in say Idaho is worth about 30 people in California, as was intended, as they should be.

Actually revoking your vote is Anti American.
Paratroopa1
10/11/18 11:34:59 PM
56
so many accounts to ignore
Corrik
10/11/18 11:40:53 PM
57
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Presidential_Election_Results_Swing_by_State_from_2012_to_2016.svg

This picture is super interesting

38 states shifted to the right.

Utah had the furthest left shift. But, I believe it had a third candidate to try and deny the Rs there so it might be misleading.
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LetsGoPikachu25
10/11/18 11:41:13 PM
58
Paratroopa1 posted...
so many accounts to ignore


In time, (November) you will know what it's like to lose.
To feel so desperately you are right but to fail all the same.
Dread it.
Run from it (and you are)
Destiny still arrives.
Corrik
10/11/18 11:53:23 PM
59
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana

44 Dems
49 Repubs

In Tennessee and North Dakota there are some polls with Repubs with double digits leads.

Heller has taken leads in recent polls slightly in Nevada.

Arizona is closely Dem right now but close. As is Florida. Both within 2%.

Indiana Dems are up around 3%.

Missouri Republican has started to take the lead in polls slightly also.

There is a possibility Repubs could pull away with a lot more seats than initially expected in this Senate race. Warning flags have to be flying all over the place regarding it for Dems. Unless a change in trends happens in the next month.
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Eddv
10/12/18 12:00:50 AM
60
Corrik posted...
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana


This is lumping in leans.

The two true tossups are NV and MO.

Republicans are at +1 on the odds because you can basically assume one breaks for GOP and one breaks for Dems.
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LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 12:04:34 AM
61
Eddv posted...
Corrik posted...
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana


This is lumping in leans.

The two true tossups are NV and MO.

Republicans are at +1 on the odds because you can basically assume one breaks for GOP and one breaks for Dems.


You are losing Indiana....

And it actually wont be close.

If you lose Nevada you should close your party down after all the HELLER IS GONE shit that the Libs all pulled after the healthcare shit.
Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 12:07:40 AM
62
Corrik posted...
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana

44 Dems
49 Repubs

In Tennessee and North Dakota there are some polls with Repubs with double digits leads.

Heller has taken leads in recent polls slightly in Nevada.

Arizona is closely Dem right now but close. As is Florida. Both within 2%.

Indiana Dems are up around 3%.

Missouri Republican has started to take the lead in polls slightly also.

There is a possibility Repubs could pull away with a lot more seats than initially expected in this Senate race. Warning flags have to be flying all over the place regarding it for Dems. Unless a change in trends happens in the next month.


Did you pull this from RCP?

Your breakdown is right (44 safe Dems 49 safe Reps), but North Dakota isn't the toss up, Montana is. North Dakota is lean Republican. Tennessee is about to slip out of toss up range too, so you're looking at 44-50.

So basically Dems would need a clean sweep to gain a single seat, which based on the polling is increasingly unlikely. It think Tester is likely ok in Montana (could change, obviously, but Montana is weird like this and Tester is still well liked). But even then we'd need to win 5 out 5 in Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Florida and Indiana just to gain a single seat. Polling in Missouri has been down for a while, and 538 has Heller favorited in Nevada now too. Arizona has been trending more red in recent polls.

Like, it would be *great* for the democrats if they pulled out Indiana and Florida considering how competitive those two are, but they could still lose seats. This is just such a nightmare map for Democrats. Although, if they can't pick up Heller's seat who isn't even that well liked in what has been a blue state for a long time, we don't really deserve to win.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 12:09:52 AM
63
Eddv posted...
Corrik posted...
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana


This is lumping in leans.

The two true tossups are NV and MO.

Republicans are at +1 on the odds because you can basically assume one breaks for GOP and one breaks for Dems.


This is 538 and they take into more complicated stuff like incumbency effect, lean of the state, lean of polls, and numerous other factors. They have a polls only model which is basically in line with RCP.

(At least, 538 has the true tossups as NV and MO at the moment, so I'm assuming that is what you're referring to!)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 12:21:40 AM
64
Lito can probably explain it better than I, but Silvers Lean of State is liberal biased bullshit with about 0 basis in reality.
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 12:22:00 AM
65
Ulti.... not Lito. God damn auto correct.
Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 12:27:05 AM
66
It actually gives Republicans better odds in Missouri or Indiana because of the partisan lean of the state. So if it is liberal bs he may want to rethink his method since it shows worse results for democrats.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
TheRock1525
10/12/18 12:32:07 AM
67
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flake-calls-trump-supporters-lock-her-up-chants-disturbing-and-fears-for-future-of-republican-party

Will someone just punch this fucking guy?
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Corrik
10/12/18 12:32:25 AM
68
Suprak the Stud posted...
Corrik posted...
Assuming 7 tossups.

Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
Indiana

44 Dems
49 Repubs

In Tennessee and North Dakota there are some polls with Repubs with double digits leads.

Heller has taken leads in recent polls slightly in Nevada.

Arizona is closely Dem right now but close. As is Florida. Both within 2%.

Indiana Dems are up around 3%.

Missouri Republican has started to take the lead in polls slightly also.

There is a possibility Repubs could pull away with a lot more seats than initially expected in this Senate race. Warning flags have to be flying all over the place regarding it for Dems. Unless a change in trends happens in the next month.


Did you pull this from RCP?

Your breakdown is right (44 safe Dems 49 safe Reps), but North Dakota isn't the toss up, Montana is. North Dakota is lean Republican. Tennessee is about to slip out of toss up range too, so you're looking at 44-50.

So basically Dems would need a clean sweep to gain a single seat, which based on the polling is increasingly unlikely. It think Tester is likely ok in Montana (could change, obviously, but Montana is weird like this and Tester is still well liked). But even then we'd need to win 5 out 5 in Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Florida and Indiana just to gain a single seat. Polling in Missouri has been down for a while, and 538 has Heller favorited in Nevada now too. Arizona has been trending more red in recent polls.

Like, it would be *great* for the democrats if they pulled out Indiana and Florida considering how competitive those two are, but they could still lose seats. This is just such a nightmare map for Democrats. Although, if they can't pick up Heller's seat who isn't even that well liked in what has been a blue state for a long time, we don't really deserve to win.

Yeah, I mixed up ND and Montana. Oops.
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Paratroopa1
10/12/18 12:46:28 AM
69
"The retiring one-term senator said, "Ultimately, voters will again value those who can govern and those who can treat each other with respect."

FUCKING LOL when has this ever been true
TheRock1525
10/12/18 12:54:54 AM
70
"I don't know why these people are so behind Trump"
*proceeds to vote lockstep with him to give him as many political victories as possible*

Seriously someone needs to punch him so his crooked nose gets a little crookeder.
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ChaosTonyV4
10/12/18 5:18:57 AM
71
For people who dont know, the people on CNN who said Kanye was what happens with a negro who doesnt read (not CANT, important distinction), were black people, and its a reference to a Chris Rock bit.

Thats all I have to add to this dumpster fire of a topic.
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Corrik
10/12/18 5:23:56 AM
72
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
For people who dont know, the people on CNN who said Kanye was what happens with a negro who doesnt read (not CANT, important distinction), were black people, and its a reference to a Chris Rock bit.

Thats all I have to add to this dumpster fire of a topic.

Yeah, I agree this thread is a dumpster fire. Literally have people calling for violence in it.
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UltimaterializerX
10/12/18 6:41:08 AM
73
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
For people who dont know, the people on CNN who said Kanye was what happens with a negro who doesnt read (not CANT, important distinction), were black people, and its a reference to a Chris Rock bit.

Thats all I have to add to this dumpster fire of a topic.

Leftists will defend ANYTHING their hivemind does.
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LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 8:14:19 AM
74
Paratroopa1 posted...
"The retiring one-term senator said, "Ultimately, voters will again value those who can govern and those who can treat each other with respect."

FUCKING LOL when has this ever been true


Bush Jr.

Successful as hell Governor, treated people with respect with his kitschy charm
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 8:16:32 AM
75
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
For people who dont know, the people on CNN who said Kanye was what happens with a negro who doesnt read (not CANT, important distinction), were black people, and its a reference to a Chris Rock bit.

Thats all I have to add to this dumpster fire of a topic.


Why is this relevant?

I mean its not....

But why did you in your minds processes ever THINK it was?

Its still indefensible, and everyone part of it should he immediately terminated from their positions.
Espeon
10/12/18 8:36:47 AM
76
LetsGoSquirtle7 posted...
Paratroopa1 posted...
"The retiring one-term senator said, "Ultimately, voters will again value those who can govern and those who can treat each other with respect."

FUCKING LOL when has this ever been true


Bush Jr.

Successful as hell Governor, treated people with respect with his kitschy charm


Why dont you act like him then instead of acting like Trump and only bringing up Bush Jr. to try and make modern Republicans look like decent human beings.
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Mr Lasastryke
10/12/18 8:43:58 AM
77
inviso. stop.
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LetsGoPikachu25
10/12/18 8:59:29 AM
78
Espeon posted...
LetsGoSquirtle7 posted...
Paratroopa1 posted...
"The retiring one-term senator said, "Ultimately, voters will again value those who can govern and those who can treat each other with respect."

FUCKING LOL when has this ever been true


Bush Jr.

Successful as hell Governor, treated people with respect with his kitschy charm


Why dont you act like him then instead of acting like Trump and only bringing up Bush Jr. to try and make modern Republicans look like decent human beings.


I would like to know who here I don't treat with respect....
TheRock1525
10/12/18 9:59:55 AM
79
Lol got modded for saying someone should punch Jeff Flake.
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TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues.
TheRock1525
10/12/18 10:02:44 AM
80
Also conservatives virtue signaling about Kanye is rich.

"We'll pass minority targeting voter suppression laws, demand Confederate statues stay up, not get upset when a president says there was good people among white supremacists and neo nazis, but I'll be damned if I'm ok with some cnn commentators saying negro don't read."
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Ashethan
10/12/18 10:07:20 AM
81
Don't forget getting upset over terms like "Black Lives Matter" or black people kneeling in peaceful protest.

"LOL SJWS are so easily offended! What cuck losers!"

"OMG SOMEONE IS NOT STANDING FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM! I AM OFFENDED!"
"OMG SOMEONE SAID HAPPY HOLIDAYS! I AM OFFENDED!"

...yeah, they're really thick-skinned there. Can handle pretty much every offense except the ones they don't agree with.
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Shaduln
10/12/18 11:05:49 AM
82
When Lasa says to stop engaging with someone...
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LapisLazuli
10/12/18 11:13:01 AM
83
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 11:14:11 AM
84
LapisLazuli posted...
This whole topic has been worthless.


The whole series has been worthlesss.... but yall keep making them.
Metal_DK
10/12/18 12:16:38 PM
85
How bout how we talk about how social media has stagnated society
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LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 12:21:29 PM
86
Metal_DK posted...
How bout how we talk about how social media has stagnated society


Sure
GuessMyUserName
10/12/18 12:43:10 PM
87
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/12/arizona-republicans-communists-democrats-donation-attempt

lol
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Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 12:45:31 PM
88
Corrik posted...
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
For people who dont know, the people on CNN who said Kanye was what happens with a negro who doesnt read (not CANT, important distinction), were black people, and its a reference to a Chris Rock bit.

Thats all I have to add to this dumpster fire of a topic.

Yeah, I agree this thread is a dumpster fire. Literally have people calling for violence in it.


Jeff Flake, for all of his flaws, was one of like four Republicans even willing to criticize Trump and he lost his job for it. So calls of violence against him are particularly wrong headed (not that any calls for violence are a good idea, mind you, but uh yeah).

Rock may have been joking (or not!) but saying someone needs to break his nose because you think he's being disingenuous isn't how politics is supposed to work.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 12:50:37 PM
89
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-heitkamp-pull-off-a-second-upset-in-north-dakota/

tl;dr

Probably not.

Oh and Bredesen's odds just took a big hit too. WEEEEEEEE
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
scarletspeed7
10/12/18 12:53:21 PM
90
LetsGoSquirtle7 posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
MWC, I missed you bro.

It's great how censorship just makes us stronger, isn't it?


I look forward to November 7th like you cant believe. The day after is going to be better than sex.

When you know someone hasn't had sex.
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CoolCly
10/12/18 12:56:40 PM
91
I thought I offered something interesting to talk about but it didn't really go anywhere.
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Mr Lasastryke
10/12/18 12:59:20 PM
92
it was interesting but there's only so much you can say about it.
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Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 1:06:11 PM
93
For Cly:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/08/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/

Wildly in favor of it. I couldn't find any comparative Canadian polls, but I couldn't imagine support there would be much different than here?
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
CoolCly
10/12/18 1:11:40 PM
94
That's interesting, the average person is fine with it, yet the federal government is so hard line against it.. I wonder how much Session's hard stance on marijuana impacts all of the regulatory agencies also being hostile towards the Canadian marijuana industry. Does he have influence over them? Is Trump against it too?
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neonreaper
10/12/18 1:13:04 PM
95
I thought Trump was cool with it because Sessions recused himself.

edit: Like he said it was a state thing, but since Sessions recused himself, I think he's pushing for a federal stance on it.
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Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 1:25:15 PM
96
CoolCly posted...
That's interesting, the average person is fine with it, yet the federal government is so hard line against it.. I wonder how much Session's hard stance on marijuana impacts all of the regulatory agencies also being hostile towards the Canadian marijuana industry. Does he have influence over them? Is Trump against it too?


Well part of the issue is the way the American government is set up. It doesn't always matter how many people support something but rather where those people are located at. Keep in mind that Clinton won by 2% points in the popular vote but still lost the electoral vote by a significant margin.

Now, that isn't as much of a factor here because that gap is so big you would expect that even if it was broken up by state, you could still cobble together enough senators that would come from states that support it. Another fact is look at the breakdown by age. The oldest generation opposes it while boomers are just barely in favor of it. Guess which two populations dominate our senate and house of reps? So you have smaller, more conservative states having an equal weight in the senate to states like California, so even if there are millions more in California that support and a couple thousand more in say North Dakota that oppose, those two get equal weight in vote for this. Plus the fact that a majority of senators are old and even most of the democrats aren't pushing for reform on this issue.

Just on anecdotal evidence, I can say those numbers look right. And even people that oppose it tend not to care that much. You'll walk by a bar or something and smell it and people will just go "ugh I hate that smell" and move on. But since this isn't a big issue even for people who support it, they aren't necessarily pushing their congresspeople on it. So its probably a lot of factors.

Interestingly, the racial group most in favor of legalization is white while the most opposed is hispanic, while it shows Republicans oppose and democrats support. Kind of weird numbers there.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
Corrik
10/12/18 1:36:33 PM
97
Suprak the Stud posted...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-heitkamp-pull-off-a-second-upset-in-north-dakota/

tl;dr

Probably not.

Oh and Bredesen's odds just took a big hit too. WEEEEEEEE

But Taylor? Why aren't they counting for Taylor?

(I myself overvalued what a LeBron backing would do in Ohio's outcome)
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Suprak the Stud
10/12/18 1:38:13 PM
98
Well that -14 poll ended its polling period before Tay Tay made her endorsement.

MAKE YOUR TIME, REPUBLICANS, WE'RE COMING FOR YOU.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 1:40:20 PM
99
Taylor isnt registered apparently.

Hypocrite.

That said, Im listening to Love Story in my car whilst I type this. No hate here for her.
Jakyl25
10/12/18 1:50:49 PM
100
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 1:54:53 PM
101
Jakyl25 posted...
https://twitter.com/misterjamo/status/1050436638520823809?s=21

Smooth Kanye


And...?

Ive done stuff like that plenty.

Just want it locked so someone has to actually put in codes to get in it.

Most of the time the frustration alone will stop them
LetsGoSquirtle7
10/12/18 4:49:32 PM
102
Hey, a Lib said something evil and demented, (Pretty sure its their official Modus Operandi at this time), and got fired. Thanks to Disney and Marvel for having the guts to do the right thing when literally no one else will when it comes to this side.
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