Board 8 > KP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis

LurkerFAQs, Active Database ( 07.23.2018-present ), Database 1, Database 2, Database 3
Topic List
Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 9:45:55 PM
1
Where I make heavy use of not just amazing predictive powers, but past results and stats! Note that I will primarily be making use of the 2010 and 2013 stats, and while the 2010 stats are pretty solid, the 2013 are not. I should know, I made them myself! They turned out better than I expected but 2013 was still a clusterfuck, so ready your grains of salt.

To make things (slightly) more interesting: every character that I predict to win in this topic, I will pick in my bracket and not change. I'm not just spitballing, I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and no last-minute changes or inspirations! Although I will leave myself an out for if, say, the Overwatch reddit advertises the contest and stickies a thread the day before the contest begins. I'm not that crazy.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 9:46:11 PM
2
Division 1 Match 1
Dante vs. Cuphead


Relevant Links:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5182-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-dante-vs-laharl-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year

Dante might choke against tough competition, but he has no trouble cutting down fodder. Cuphead will be fodder. His game was very popular but it's not a GameFAQs game. Having a neat design might help him not get totally wrecked though.

Final Score:
Dante - 77%
Cuphead - 23%

Dante has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 1 Match 2
Chloe Price vs. Lightning


Relevant Links:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6071-best-game-ever-day-6-fallout-3-vs-life-is-strange
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5222-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-lightning-vs-dk-vs

Lightning is an embarrassment. She got like 35% against Sonic back in the day, but that result doesn't remotely anymore because it was before FF13 came out. Hype is worth a lot! Then it actually released and people realized she sucked, and now she's losing easily to an LFFd Donkey Kong. DK. Choker among Chokers.

Chloe still loses badly though. People will always take the devil they know over the devil they don't, and Life is Strange simply isn't a GameFAQs type of game. Too indie, too not-Japanese. Either you bank on a rally or Chloe loses, and LiS isn't the 'it' thing right now so I doubt it happens. It's much less likely than all the other rally chances, at least.

Final Score:
Chloe - 31%
Lightning - 69%

Lightning has a 95% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 9:47:15 PM
3
Division 1 Match 3
Spyro the Dragon vs. Chun-Li


Relevant Matches:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5163-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-spyro-vs-clementine
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5231-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-sephiroth-vs-morrigan

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5205-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-cirno-vs-chun

It's surprisingly hard to find good matches of Chun-Li to look at. Her last 'fair' matches before 2013 were back in 2006, and by now that's...pretty worthless. She hasn't been in a contest since then. I'm actually surprised she managed to make 2015 considering all the other snubs and her low seed in 2013

So really the only match of her's I feel comfortable using is a result where...she got demolished by Tifa. Good for her. Spyro managed to get his first win by dunking on fodder and then 'redeemed' his 2002 self by doing significantly better on Morrigan than the last time around.

Spyro did about as good on Sephiroth as Chun-Li did on Tifa. In any other contest, that would make this choice a done deal, but surprise, it was 2013! Tifa did *extremely* good in 2013 while Sephiroth sucked in all his matches. Chun-Li actually ended up high in the stats. Even if you don't trust the stats (which you shouldn't), I would sooner believe that Chun-Li got TJF SFFd by Tifa than believe that she wouldn't be able to match Morrigan's performances. There's not that enough reliable stats to make an informed decision but that's what my gut tells me.

Spyro could easily win this though. He's a nostalgic character now and he's getting his games re-released, so if there's any time he has to capitalize on the mythical second win, it's now.

Final Score:
Spyro - 48%
Chun-Li - 52%

Chun-Li has a 60% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
NowItsAngeTime
10/11/18 9:47:26 PM
4
You are now tracking this topic.
---
ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128
Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
davidponte
10/11/18 9:47:55 PM
5
Tag
---
The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:06:45 PM
6
Division 1 Match 4
Ganondorf vs. Neku Sakuraba


Relevant matches:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5208-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-ganondorf-vs-guybrush

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3755-heart-division-round-1-laharl-vs-neku-sakuraba
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5198-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-neku-vs-vaas-vs

I have no idea how Neku made it back in. He wasn't even slightly respectable back when TWEWY was recent. Gave Laharl that win he'd been searching for for so long, then lost to Catherine somehow. Ganondorf is going to mask him into a fine paste.

Final Score:
Ganondorf -80%
Neku - 20%

Ganondorf has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 1 Match 5
Vivi vs. Yu Narukami


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3744-chaos-division-round-1-vivi-vs-donkey-kong
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5207-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-vivi-vs-jensen-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5185-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-yu-vs-shadow-vs-kat

Vivi is a big question mark in this contest. Even if we have (a lot) of precedent showing that big bandwagon entries are never as strong as when they're in the limelight, it's hard not to look at the Midcarder Who Beat Mario and not wonder if he'll be able to retain some of that magic. My money is on 'probably not', but more on that later.

Regardless, he doesn't need any of that magic to beat Yu. Yu lost cleanly to Shadow, and Shadow would lose cleanly to Vivi. Yu might be a little stronger now due to Persona being on the upswing but I wouldn't bet on any major differences.

Final Score:
Vivi - 65%
Yu Narukami - 35%

Vivi has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 1 Match 6
Victor Sullivan vs. Aya Brea


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5242-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-2-mr-game-vs-drake-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5195-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-drake-vs-steve-vs-pac

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5191-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-sora-vs-scorpion-vs

HOW is Aya back in these things? How does she still have fans? How is she not turbofodder? She didn't even do that bad in her 2013 match! Well, compared to other really weak characters. The power of TJF lives on. DK will never live down almost losing to her.

Victor Sullivan is going to be extremely weak. He has no matches so I just posted some Nathan Drake results. Take Drake, then make him like 1/5 as strong, and you get Sully. Drake is the poster boy of the Uncharted series, the main character, the one everyone loves. And he still only has enough gas in the tank to edge out Pac-man and lose easily to Blue. And then there's Sully, who wouldn't even be here if he didn't win the Guru. He's a 'fan favorite' character which means he's going to be a lot weaker than the main character of the same series, and his design is GameFAQs poison. We appreciate an anime or fantasy aethetic here, and Sully is the definition of a boring-looking western character. His match pic disadvantage will be huge, and most voters aren't going to know much about these two outside of the pics.

Aya is bad but honestly, she avoided getting doubled by Scorpion and I don't think Sully manages that. She can lose but I still take TJF over an old normal-looking dude on the GameFAQs front page.

Final Score:
Victor Sullivan - 44%
Aya Brea - 56%

Aya Brea has a 65% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
dilateDChemist
10/11/18 10:09:48 PM
7
tag
---
-schwifty
LeonhartFour
10/11/18 10:12:00 PM
8
KamikazePotato posted...
How does she still have fans?


because she's hot and eternally youthful (no seriously, canonically she never ages)
---
_SecretSquirrel
10/11/18 10:18:09 PM
9
KamikazePotato posted...
I have no idea how Neku made it back in.

TWEWY has a Switch port out tomorrow.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
BKSheikah is the new greatone.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:24:12 PM
10
Division 1 Match 7
Tidus vs. Donkey Kong


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3260-division-5-round-1-donkey-tails-tidus-cube

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3765-varia-division-round-1-tidus-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5211-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-missingno-vs-tidus-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3744-chaos-division-round-1-vivi-vs-donkey-kong
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5222-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-lightning-vs-dk-vs

I've seen this match tripping up some people, but I'm personally not seeing the confusion. I think people are just looking at two chokers in one match and their brains are short-circuiting. Tidus is struggles to win debatable matches but overall he does fine. He mostly loses to people that, realistically speaking, he should have lost to anyway. Sub-Zero was clearly the favorite in 2010 (if you paid attention to past results), and he was never supposed to be close to Missingno in the first place. Tidus is a solid midcarder who, unfortunately for him, is used as 'interesting match' fodder.

DK is like...a strictly weaker version of Tidus. I don't like using 2008 results - it was TEN YEARS ago god am I old - but Tidus didn't have any trouble advancing over him. Pre-Crisis Vivi beat him with 56.5% twice, and while Pre-Crisis Vivi was stronger than Tidus, it wasn't by that much. To me, Tidus/DK is just Vivi/DK except Tidus does somewhat worse. It'll be a relatively close, but safe, win. The only thing that gives me pause is that FFX looked slightly weaker in the 2015 Games contest, but it's decline was overstated. Chrono Trigger was going to beat Melee just as badly before rallies kicked in.

Before someone says that Smash Ultimate will help DK: it's Donkey Kong. You've made up your mind on him by now. He hasn't changed in strength in like 14 years.

Final Score:
Tidus - 53%
Donkey Kong - 47%

Tidus has a 75% chance of winning

---

Division 2 Match 8
Leon Kennedy vs. Dragonborn


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5239-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-shadow-vs-leon-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5203-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-dragonborn-vs-tom
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5245-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-2-dragonborn-vs-yuna-vs

Dragonborn just didn't look good. His match against Nook/Pyramid Head is preeetty bad. I think Leon looked a little weaker in 2013 than he has in past, but he's not going to struggle against a character that got 60% against Tom Nook and didn't beat Yuna that badly despite Tifa laying down a double SFF beating of FF and TJF overlap.

Since then, RE2's remake has been getting a lot of hype while Bethesda is on a slight downswing. You can't even count on a rally because no Skyrim player cares about the generic Dragonborn default avatar.

Final Score:
Leon - 62%
Dragonborn - 38%

Leon has a 95% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
LeonhartFour
10/11/18 10:24:23 PM
11
also for Spyro measure him through Morrigan, not Sephiroth

Miles Edgeworth is projected to get nearly 42% on Spyro through Morrigan

Miles Edgeworth
---
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:25:36 PM
12
LeonhartFour posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
How does she still have fans?


because she's hot and eternally youthful (no seriously, canonically she never ages)

Gah, figures.

_SecretSquirrel posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I have no idea how Neku made it back in.

TWEWY has a Switch port out tomorrow.

Looking forward to that getting Neku 1% more than he would have otherwise!
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
_SecretSquirrel
10/11/18 10:29:39 PM
13
KamikazePotato posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

I have no idea how Neku made it back in.

TWEWY has a Switch port out tomorrow.

Looking forward to that getting Neku 1% more than he would have otherwise!

Hey, the port was good timing, because he made it back in while the two characters that have wins over him are on the outside looking in.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
BKSheikah is the new greatone.
The Owner of FF9
10/11/18 10:32:14 PM
14
_SecretSquirrel posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I have no idea how Neku made it back in.

TWEWY has a Switch port out tomorrow.

Neat.
---
Best. Game. Ever.: 20th Anniversary Edition. Final Score: 228/448 :-(
Congratulations DpObliVion!
LeonhartFour
10/11/18 10:33:40 PM
15
heck yeah I'm hyped about that TWEWY port because I've been wanting to replay it for a while

of course I'd be voting for Neku against Ganondorf even if I'd literally never heard of him before so it's not really changing anything for me
---
LeonhartFour
10/11/18 10:35:07 PM
16
wait I'm just now realizing we've seen Ganondorf/Neku before

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3253-division-3-round-1-frog-ganondorf-kos-mos-neku

I apologize to everyone who read my analysis topic for doing you such a grave disservice with this oversight
---
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:35:17 PM
17
Divison 2 Match 1
Zero vs. Primrose


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5250-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-2-zero-mmx-vs-cube-vs

Zero, meet a character that only made it in due to recency bias and Allen specifically adding in every Octopath character into the ballet before putting nominations up. Primrose, meet a Z-Saber to the face.

Final Score
Zero - 80%
Primrose - 20%

Zero has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 2 Match 2
Zidane Tribal vs. Knuckles


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5184-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-dancin-vs-zidane-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5238-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-dante-vs-squirtle-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3739-chaos-division-round-1-cecil-harvey-vs-knuckles
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5199-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-knuckles-vs-seifer-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5243-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-2-samus-vs-catherine-vs

This is a bit of a trap match. A decade ago, Knuckles (probably) wins this easily. He's had some solid results in the past while Zidane used to be fodder. Then Dissidia came out and Zidane became respectable, cleanly beating Ridley and putting up respectable (relatively speaking) numbers against Dante and Squirtle, while Knuckles almost jobbed to Cecil, couldn't put up decent numbers against two FF C-list FF characters splitting the vote, and got stomped by Samus. It's possible that Samus did some weird Nintendo/Sonic SFF, but still, look at where the stats wound up:

Zidane (2013c) has a strength of 28.72 against Base Link.
Knuckles (2013c) has a strength of 24.86 against Base Link.

Zidane56.72%30,606
Knuckles43.28%23,354
TOTAL VOTES53,960
Zidane wins with 56.72% of the vote!

I feel like Knux would do a bit better than that but not by much. He's really going to have to come out swinging to prove that he isn't a has-been.

Results:
Zidane - 54%
Knuckles - 46%
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:36:24 PM
18
Totally forgot that Neku and Ganondorf faced before. I'm trying to avoid looking at too many results before 2010 because those results are super old, which means I'll miss some instances like that.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
LeonhartFour
10/11/18 10:37:06 PM
19
well I'm just trying to correct an error from my own topic
---
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:46:40 PM
20
Division 2 Match 3
Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6574-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2004-triforce-division-round-1-kuja-vs-master-hand

Kuja vs. Master Hand brings back memories. Easily one of the most infamous results we've ever had. One of the best villains the FF series has to offer, losing to a hand. The board was...interesting, that day.

I don't have faith in Noctis. FFXV won a weak GotY poll and it's reception has been decidedly mixed. Lightning showed that being an FF main character doesn't automatically make you good, and I can't imagine Noctis being appreciably stronger than her - if he's stronger at all.

It's still enough to beat a hand though. Kuja losing was more due to his own weakness than Master Hand's strength. Noctis could still lose if he flat-out sucks, but he would have to really suck.

But wait, Smash Ultimate is coming out! Maybe that will make a difference...!

(It won't.)

Result:
Noctis - 55%
Master Hand - 45%

Noctis has a 75% chance of winning

---

Division 2 Match 4
Monika vs. Wario


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6948-best-of-2017-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6951-best-of-2017-indies

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3244-division-1-round-1-cecil-jade-wario-zack
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5212-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-creeper-vs-wario-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5248-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-wario-vs-red-vs-wrex

Hoo boy.

I'll state this now: for the purposes of this topic, I will not take significant rallies into account. There no point, Either they don't happen and the character loses, or they do and the character wins. Not much middle ground. If you want to take Monika to the finals, be my guest! She's scary. Not the scariest rally entrant here, but scary nonetheless. But if you're not...

Then Wario wins easy. Make no mistake: Wario is not good. Wario is marginally above the fodder line. Wario is not well-liked by the Nintendo fanbase. But everyone knows Wario, which means he still beats character from a game that the vast majority of GameFAQs hasn't played or even heard of.

Result:
Monika - 34%
Wario - 66%

Wario has a 100% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
UltimaterializerX
10/11/18 10:48:13 PM
21
https://old.reddit.com/r/DDLC/

Monika is making it to Link, bare minimum.

I don't think any bandwagon is beating him this year though. I legitimately believe Link is the most likely to get rallied. Breath of the Wild is no joke, man.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n
davidponte
10/11/18 10:59:00 PM
22
UltimaterializerX posted...
https://old.reddit.com/r/DDLC/

Monika is making it to Link, bare minimum.


This is a serious claim from someone who claims they are never wrong about things.
---
Posted using GameFlux
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 10:59:56 PM
23
Division 2 Match 5
Yoshi vs. Shantae


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3788-jenova-division-round-1-yoshi-vs-jak

Quick question: who's a more popular character, Jak, or Shantae? If that took you more than 2 seconds to mentally answer, then your bracket is already dead. Shantae is a character who only got in due to being a Smash Ultimate character some people are trying to get in, and even then only because - as Zen put it - her entire popularity comes from porn. She could get the biggest rally possible for her character and still lose because there's no way the Smash fanbase sides with her against freaking Yoshi.

Result:
Yoshi - 85%
Shantae - 15%

Yoshi has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 2 Match 6
Velvet Crowe vs. James Sunderland


What a 'screw you' match to people who use stats and past results to predict matches. Both of these characters are going to be fodder incarnate and neither has ever been in a poll. No, wait, James has! Sort of!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4482-which-of-these-rivalries-would-you-most-like-to-see-in-the

His rivalry barely ranked above Luke's. Maybe that implies he'll beat Velvet, who is another Tales character. How did Luke do again?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3245-division-1-round-1-link-luke-shadow-zidane

Oh.

Okay so maybe Luke isn't the best stat to use. How about Pyramid Head?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5203-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-dragonborn-vs-tom

That's...not terrible? I don't think Velvet comes close to Nook honestly, so if James is as strong as PH, he'll win. But he won't be. Not even close. PH is the face of the series and has an awesome monster design and he's still weak. James is a normal looking dude on the GameFAQs front page, and I cannot overstate how much of a death sentence that is. Silent Hill 2 has actually looked pretty good in the recent Games Contests, but I think that's more of a growing respect for the game than for James as a character specifically.

Velvet is an anime girl on the front page, and Berseria is a JRPG that had a strong reception. That's probably enough to win. Probably. Tales is historically weak but Lloyd and Yuri looked okay in 2013 so whatever.

Result:
Velvet - 55%
James - 45%

Velvet has a 65% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
TheKoolAidShoto
10/11/18 11:01:19 PM
24
"Final Score:
Tidus - 53%
Donkey Kong - 47%"

no KP
---
Communists
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:08:44 PM
25
Division 2 Match 7
Pikachu vs. Scorpion


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5191-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-sora-vs-scorpion-vs

Pokemon in 2013 was some real deal shit. I have a feeling that they're going to come down to earth in this contest, like Charizard did, but even when taking that into account Scorpion has like no chance of winning this. He hasn't looked stronger than Pikachu in a long time.

Result:
Pikachu - 61%
Scorpion - 39%

Pikachu has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 2 Match 8
Kratos vs. John Marston


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5216-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-kratos-vs-travis-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5249-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-2-mega-man-vs-kratos-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5221-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-marston-vs-zelda-vs

John Marston actually didn't do terrible in 2013 (for a western character), while Kratos kiiiind of looked like butt. Let's consult the stats!

Kratos (2013c) has a strength of 22.02 against Base Link.
Marston (2013c) has a strength of 20.92 against Base Link.

Kratos52.50%28,328
Marston47.50%25,632
TOTAL VOTES53,960
Kratos wins with 52.50% of the vote!

Huh, interesting. Red Dead Redemption 2 is on the horizon and receiving a fair amount of hype. Marston might be an interesting upset pick for those who are looking to score a point that few others will. After all, Kratos is a character that lives and dies on hype, and he hasn't been in any big games in a whi-

https://www.ign.com/articles/2018/05/25/god-of-war-sales-top-5-million-in-the-first-month

Oh right, nevermind.

Result:
Kratos - 59%
Marston - 41%

Kratos has a 90% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
ZenOfThunder
10/11/18 11:10:37 PM
26
oh shit

tag

i will be archiving this thread from post #120 onwards here:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465?page=2#120
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
ZenOfThunder
10/11/18 11:16:44 PM
27
UltimaterializerX posted...
https://old.reddit.com/r/DDLC/

Monika is making it to Link, bare minimum.


5J8SFiv
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
ZenOfThunder
10/11/18 11:18:02 PM
28
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
"Final Score:
Tidus - 53%
Donkey Kong - 47%"

no KP


8W1JPwY
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:20:07 PM
29
Division 3 Match 1
Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5191-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-sora-vs-scorpion-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1720-hyrule-division-round-1-yoshi-vs-ryo-hazuki

Wait, I've only got like a week to do this topic? Shit. Okay time to trim down the writeups on some of the losers.

SORA SMASH RYO

Result:
Sora - 80%
Ryo - 20%

Sora has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 3 Match 2
Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5213-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-red-vs-corvo-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5264-character-battle-ix-final-nine-samus-vs-red-vs-mega-man

I'm annoyed that I know who Neptune is.

Result:
Neptune - 20%
Red - 80%

Red has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 3 Match 3
Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5169-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-wheatley-vs-crash-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5233-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-elizabeth-vs-kirby-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3739-chaos-division-round-1-cecil-harvey-vs-knuckles
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5214-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-pit-vs-wrex-vs-cecil

It's a testament to how much Crash used to suck that him beating Wheatley was considered an accomplishment. It's a testament to how much Cecil used to suck that him almost upending Knuckles was considered really impressive...then he lost to Wrex though. Wrex received somewhat of a rally that match, but still. Not the best look.

Both of these guys are unimpressive. Crash could definitely win this, but I think I take Cecil simply because I don't think Crash gets 48% on Knuckles (even if Knuckles has been kind of sucking). I don't think Cecil loses to Elizabeth either, and would Crash even beat Pit? Cecil has looked just slightly more impressive so far, and it's hard to side with a PS1 platformer character over an FF main character on GameFAQs. And when in doubt:

Cecil (2013c) has a strength of 24.58 against Base Link.
Crash Bandicoot (2013c) has a strength of 22.86 against Base Link.

Cecil53.50%28,868
Crash Bandicoot46.50%25,092
TOTAL VOTES53,960
Cecil wins with 53.50% of the vote!

Yeah, looks about right.

Result:
Crash - 47%
Cecil - 53%

Cecil has a 65% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:20:24 PM
30
ZenOfThunder posted...
oh shit

tag

i will be archiving this thread from post #120 onwards here:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465?page=2#120

^5
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:32:14 PM
31
Division 3 Match 4
Big Boss vs. Ridley


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5184-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-dancin-vs-zidane-vs

Will Ridley look bad in this, considering he might actually benefit a bit from Smash Ultimate hype? No. Does he have any chance of winning? Not even remotely. Big Boss is on another level and has been ever since he started getting Naked Snake pics.

I don't feel like making up a result percent for this, so...xstats! Do my work for me!

Big Boss (2013c) has a strength of 34.72 against Base Link.
Ridley (2013c) has a strength of 26.21 against Base Link.

Big Boss62.26%33,593
Ridley37.74%20,367

Big Boss has a 100% chance of winning

---

Division 3 Match 5
Alucard vs. Princess Peach


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3731-hyrule-division-round-1-alucard-vs-magus
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3793-jenova-division-round-1-gordon-freeman-vs-princess-peach

Alucard has always been weirdly strong. He's more or less become the face of Castlevania on GameFAQs. SotN has this enduring popularity and his character design is really good, so he always does well. Peach...the only time we've ever gotten a good read on Peach is in her 2010 match against Gordon, where she did alright. She had a lot of 2006 Female Bracket matches but man are those unreliable. She also lost to Meta Knight in a 2007 4-way match, which is a bit of a bad look for her.

Simply put: I think Alucard would easily beat Gordon, so I don't see any reason why he won't beat Peach. The dude is just too consistent at putting up performances where you go "hey, not bad, Alucard." It won't be a crushing but I don't think Peach has the results or intangibles (very few people like Peach to any large degree) to make a strong case for her winning.

Result:
Alucard - 55%
Peach - 45%

Alucard has an 80% chance of winning

---

Division 3 Match 6
Yuna vs. Godot


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5204-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-chief-vs-yuna-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3694-cb8-vote-in-day-4-which-character-would-you-most-like-to-see

Take Edgeworth and make him way weaker. That's Godot.

Result:
Yuna - 70%
Godot - 30%

Yuna has a 100% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
ZenOfThunder
10/11/18 11:36:50 PM
32
kp plz send metal sonic good vibes
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:53:58 PM
33
Division 3 Match 7
Kefka vs. L-Block


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3756-heart-division-round-1-kefka-vs-arthas
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3807-heart-division-round-2-kefka-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5236-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-2-altair-vs-lara-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5256-character-battle-ix-division-4-final-solid-snake-vs-glados

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3758-heart-division-round-1-l-block-vs-hk-47
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3808-heart-division-round-2-l-block-vs-isaac
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5202-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-l-block-vs-teemo-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5244-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-2-ezio-vs-auron-vs-l
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259-character-battle-ix-division-7-final-samus-vs-l-block-vs

The most important match of Round 1. The winner of this probably wins two more matches, and both of them are inconsistent bastards. Kefka was terrible for years until he got Dissidia pics, and then in 2010 he became good, and in 2013 he became really good. I think people undersell just how good he did in 2013. His results against Zack, Altair, and Snake were all really legit and put him on a level far above what he's been capable of in the past. Kefka 2013 got the same result against Snake as he did against Bowser in 2010, with no immediately obvious reason for the increase.

Meanwhile, L-Block is even more all-over-the-place. Won 2007, failed to capitalize on favorable situations in 2008 and lost to Pikachu, did bad in 2010, then did a lot better in 2013. It's easy to look at L-Block>Auron in 2013 and infer that he beats Kefka because Auron>Kefka, but L-Block got a rally in that match so the 'real' result is obscured. L-Block is higher in the 2013 stats, but the only thing I trust less than the 2013 stats is the 2013 stats for a joke character. L-Block is also higher in the 2010 stats though, so he's clearly got the edge as far as pure numbers go.

I'm still taking Kefka. I think the answer lies in how they are inconsistent. Let's look at Kefka's history:

Pre-2010: Did awful
2010: Look, Dissidia pics!
2013: Did even better

Dissidia marked this 2010-and-onward revival of old-school Square characters. They all got updated artwork and renders, and Square keeps shoving them into all these crossover games. Kefka could regress but I think it's likely he stays near his 2013 level, especially considering that GameFAQs currently consists of old fogies with major nostalgia for FF6. Now let's look at L-Block:

2007: Wins. Like, the whole thing
2008: Still strong but much weaker
2010: eeeeeeh
2013: Looked better but still needed a rally to succeed

L-Block's results make it exceedingly clear that he is a character that thrives on hype, rallies, and multi-character polls (just like every other joke character ever). Joke characters also, as a rule, become weaker over time. In a 1 v 1 contest that limits rallies, where we're years removed away from his 2007 win...yeah. This can still go either way because these guys are bastards, but I'm calling it:

Result:
Kefka - 52%
L-Block - 48%

Kefka has a 55% chance of winning

---

Division 3 Match 8
Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6952-best-of-2017-remakes

Hope that Kiryu is happy to be there, because even though Bomberman is weak, he's not dropping this one.

Result:
Kazuma Kiryu - 33%
Bomberman - 66%

Bomberman has a 100% chance of winning
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato
10/11/18 11:54:12 PM
34
ZenOfThunder posted...
kp plz send metal sonic good vibes

Thoughts and prayers

One bump = one prayers
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
ZenOfThunder
10/12/18 12:07:08 AM
35
topic archived up until Kiryu/Bomberman
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
Nameless2000
10/12/18 12:59:11 AM
36
Nitpicking big time here, but I don't think Primrose was in the database. I nominated Tressa and saw only Therion and Olberic as Octopath suggestions.
---
n2k
NowItsAngeTime
10/12/18 1:00:11 AM
37
Nameless2000 posted...
Nitpicking big time here, but I don't think Primrose was in the database. I nominated Tressa and saw only Therion and Olberic as Octopath suggestions.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lUECBn74hCFqiGhsXKmGNBpjPf7WQOGYzA4Z4-aIo18/pub

You'd be correct
---
ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128
Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png
haloiscoolisbak
10/12/18 1:12:38 AM
38
I'm still torn on Tidus DK. Don't people often say always pick Nintendo in tight matches?

Hell maybe the Billy Mitchell saga has helped him regain popularity..
---
Started from the bottom now we here
haloiscoolisbak
10/12/18 1:15:35 AM
39
Sorry for the double post. But man it's really hard to weigh up Final Fantasy popularity vs Nintendo popularity. I mean DK has been around as long as Mario
---
Started from the bottom now we here
Mac Arrowny
10/12/18 1:16:02 AM
40
I think a few people are picking DK just because of the registered voters thing.
---
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
spooky96
10/12/18 1:24:36 AM
41
Tag
---
I say appreciate the life you have, because it can always be worse
ZenOfThunder
10/12/18 9:47:18 AM
42
bump
---
Curator of the Character Battle X Archive
https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp
ExThaNemesis
10/12/18 10:15:00 AM
43
Good looks on Bomberman/Kiryu. I picked Kiryu without thinking but that one is beyond obvious. We're gonna ruin the casuals on it I think.
---
"undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS
Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE
pyresword
10/12/18 10:26:37 AM
44
Oh I missed this somehow. Will read through the topic later but tag for now.
---
Congratulations to BK_Sheikah00, this year's guru to achieve contest enlightenment!
ZeldaTPLink
10/12/18 11:29:01 AM
45
Nice. I can always use more reasons to doubt my own bracket.

So far I have Crash > Cecil and Monika > Wario as different ones.

I don't remember why I picked Crash anymore but he just looked less pathetic than Cecil I think.
ZeldaTPLink
10/12/18 11:29:41 AM
46
I was impressed when I searched in GameFAQs and saw Crash has a Switch compillation.

The PS1 mascot... on a Nintendo console. What a time to live in.
STElNER
10/12/18 11:31:57 AM
47
tag
pyresword
10/12/18 11:42:13 AM
48
Well you actually did convince me to switch to Aya Brea. (Mostly I thought it was going to be a close match, and I don't think I was strongly considering the character design factor before.)
---
Congratulations to BK_Sheikah00, this year's guru to achieve contest enlightenment!
LeonhartFour
10/12/18 12:57:21 PM
49
pyresword posted...
Well you actually did convince me to switch to Aya Brea. (Mostly I thought it was going to be a close match, and I don't think I was strongly considering the character design factor before.)


I mean Morrigan was the original TJF girl but Aya Brea was right behind her
---
LeonhartFour
10/12/18 12:58:41 PM
50
ExThaNemesis posted...
Good looks on Bomberman/Kiryu. I picked Kiryu without thinking but that one is beyond obvious. We're gonna ruin the casuals on it I think.


I honestly don't think that'll be as much of a disparity as you think. Kazuma is the 2 seed, but I think Bomberman's going to get a lot of casuals just because no one knows who that is.
---
Topic List
Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10