Board 8 > KP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis

Topic List
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 12:36:14 AM
#202:


GTA used to be popular here. Vice City did really well in the original Games Contest.
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ExThaNemesis
10/14/18 12:39:05 AM
#203:


Didn't Tommy Vercetti beat DK back in the day?
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Team Rocket Elite
10/14/18 12:39:24 AM
#204:


Yeah. San Andreas also had a GotY win as well.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1877-best-of-2004-game-of-the-year-final-vote
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#205
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 12:42:37 AM
#206:


ExThaNemesis posted...
Didn't Tommy Vercetti beat DK back in the day?


He did.

Donkey Kong is the original choker.
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 12:42:48 AM
#207:


Division 7 Match 1
Luigi vs. Miles Edgeworth


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3734-hyrule-division-round-1-luigi-vs-meta-knight
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5162-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-morrigan-vs-edgeworth

Sorry, Edgey.

Result:
Luigi - 73%
Miles Edgeworth - 27%

Luigi has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 7 Match 2
Frog vs. Monokuma


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5180-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-jack-vs-frog-vs-joe
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5744-best-of-2014-playstation-vita

It won't happen, but out of all the fanbases it could happen with, the Danganronpa fanbase invading B8 due to a rally is the worst-case scenario of any contest. Just imagining that brings me to the brink of despair.

Frog - 65%
Monokuma - 35%

Frog has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 7 Match 3
Master Chief vs. Goro Majima


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5204-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-chief-vs-yuna-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6201-best-of-2015-playstation-3-and-xbox-360

Okay, Chief isn't this much of a choker.

Master Chief - 70%
Goro Majima - 30%

Master Chief has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 7 Match 4
Nathan Drake vs. Miles "Tails" Prower


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5195-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-drake-vs-steve-vs-pac
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5242-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-2-mr-game-vs-drake-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs

Here's a question: does Tails beat Pac-man? Probably not, but he's done surprisingly decent in his last two contest outings. At least in comparison to 2007 and 2008, where he looked pretty bad.

I think Drake takes this, but he's not so much stronger than Tails that I can't see Tails winning this if Drake has fallen off a lot due to Uncharted being over and done with, which is honestly very possible. Would not be the first time we've seen that.

Nathan Drake - 54%
Tails - 46%

Nathan Drake has a 70% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 12:44:50 AM
#208:


I think Tails is a little overrated in 2010 and 2013. He gets measured through Charizard and L-Block, respectively, in those contests, and we know their values are a little inflated.

I think Knuckles would struggle against Drake (not necessarily lose, but struggle), and there's no way Tails beats Knuckles, even now.
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Nanis23
10/14/18 12:50:30 AM
#209:


Monokuma has literally zero chance for a rally
Danganronpa is done, the series is over, no one cares anymore
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 12:58:55 AM
#210:


Division 7 Match 5
Tifa Lockhart vs. Geno


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5205-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-cirno-vs-chun
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3791-jenova-division-round-1-ness-vs-geno

This match may help us figure out if Tifa is still on roids like she was in 2013. Either way, Geno gets walloped.

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Division 7 Match 6
GlaDOS vs. Mewtwo


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5235-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-2-glados-vs-ike-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5256-character-battle-ix-division-4-final-solid-snake-vs-glados

Well. Now here's an interesting match.

GlaDOS was one of the secret stars of 2013. She didn't get that much of a chance to shine because the strongest opponent she beat was a horse (who beat Ike, kill me) but her results were, across the board, really strong. Here's some fun X-stats:

Zelda 34.22
Charizard 34.22
Mewtwo 34.09
GlaDOS 33.85
Ganondorf 33.58
Sora 33.55

That is totally out of line with how strong she was in the past, and it's years after Portal was relevant. Maybe it just took a while for the voters to learn that the funny robot voice from Portal was actually named GlaDOS? Regardless, she looked really good and she's wasted in a Round 1 match that is an extreme uphill battle. Even if Mewtwo is a fraud and he's not nearly as strong as his 2013 results after Round 2 show - which I believe - the stats didn't take into account anything after Round 2, so what you're seeing there is 'normal' Mewtwo. As normal as Pokemon got in 2013.

For GlaDOS to win, you basically have to hope that Mewtwo doesn't get any Pokemon weirdness bonus AND has naturally dropped since the Poke-high of 2013, and while that's possible, I find it hard to imagine he drops more than GlaDOS does. I think Portal is really starting to show its age, and it's poor performance in the 2015 Contest shows that. Wouldn't be surprised at all if GlaDOS falls off a decent amount 2013, that contest felt like a fluke that Pokemon would be proud of.

Result:
GlaDOS - 46%
Mewtwo - 54%

Mewtwo has an 80% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:00:43 AM
#211:


KamikazePotato posted...
She didn't get that much of a chance to shine because the strongest opponent she beat was a horse


hey now Kefka is stronger than the horse

I think
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:03:52 AM
#212:


He was a lot stronger but it was for 2nd place, and Kefka is in a similar 2013 position in that his strength increase was so dramatic that it still hasn't sunk in for a lot of people on how really good he did, so GlaDOS beating him didn't create much noise.
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ExThaNemesis
10/14/18 1:04:52 AM
#213:


Fuck Tails.

Still bitter that I had Viewtiful Joe beating him and he lost.
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:06:01 AM
#214:


Division 7 Match 7
King DeDeDe vs. Revolver Ocelot


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4317-who-is-your-all-time-favorite-nintendo-villain
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3262-division-5-round-1-dedede-pit-ryu-h-zero

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3732-hyrule-division-round-1-red-vs-ocelot
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5201-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-auron-vs-ocelot-vs

Seriously though, how is DDD back in and a 7 Seed?

Result:
King DeDeDe - 35%
Revolver Ocelot - 65%

Revolver Ocelot has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 7 Match 8
Mega Man X vs. Isabelle


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5151-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-1-x-vs-welkin-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6074-best-game-ever-day-6-super-mario-world-vs-animal-crossing

Okay, Smash Bros, we get the point. You can get any newly-announced character you want into the contest even if they're going to suck.

Result:
Mega Man X - 80%
Isabelle - 20%

Mega Man X has a 100% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:06:39 AM
#215:


ExThaNemesis posted...
Still bitter that I had Viewtiful Joe beating him and he lost.


and it's still the only win Tails has ever had...!

KamikazePotato posted...
He was a lot stronger but it was for 2nd place, and Kefka is in a similar 2013 position in that his strength increase was so dramatic that it still hasn't sunk in for a lot of people on how really good he did, so GlaDOS beating him didn't create much noise.


Actually, there was a decent bit of clamor about the result, but we chalked it up to LOL Kefka more than giving GlaDOS credit for it.
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:07:02 AM
#216:


KamikazePotato posted...
Seriously though, how is DDD back in and a 7 Seed?


NRT dun goofed
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:08:29 AM
#217:


The NRT has fallen on hard times I see.
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:16:05 AM
#218:


somehow between Master Hand, Dedede, and Bison, the one character who has actually looked good in a contest before got left out
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:19:30 AM
#219:


Division 8 Match 1
Sephiroth vs. Wesker


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5161-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-sephiroth-vs-midna-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3741-chaos-division-round-1-albert-wesker-vs-ken

Sephiroth may have fallen on hard times, but if there's one scenario he's going to look good in, it's when facing a much less popular villain who is also wearing a black trenchcoat thing.

Result:
Sephiroth - 70%
Wesker - 30%

Sephiroth has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 2
Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs

I find it amusing that a character that is only getting in because he was featured in a Smash trailer very recently is going to be fed to the guy who is Smash Bros incarnate.

Result:
Richter - 39%
Falcon - 61%

Captain Falcon has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 3
Amaterasu vs. Draven


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5210-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-amaterasu-vs-vyse-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5149-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-1-draven-vs-chie-vs-jak

Reminder: before the rally, Draven was losing handily to Chie.

Result:
Amaterasu - 80%
Draven - 20%

Amaterasu has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 4
Lara Croft vs. Metal Man


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5236-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-2-altair-vs-lara-vs

What poll do I even try to come up with to represent the strength of a single random robot master. Come on, B8.

Lara Croft - 69%
Metal Man - 31%

Lara Croft has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 5
Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5150-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-1-yuri-l-vs-ryu-vs-face
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5189-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-pikachu-vs-lloyd-vs

Lloyd is probably around Yuri's level, so

Ryu - 68%
Lloyd Irving - 32%

Ryu has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 6
Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5226-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-2-shepard-vs-tharja-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4317-who-is-your-all-time-favorite-nintendo-villain

KamikazePotato posted...
Okay, Smash Bros, we get the point. You can get any newly-announced character you want into the contest even if they're going to suck.


Shepard - 70%
King. K Rool - 30%

Shepard has a 100% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:21:45 AM
#220:


KamikazePotato posted...
What poll do I even try to come up with to represent the strength of a single random robot master.


just show how middling the individual Mega Man Classic games have been in polls before!
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NowItsAngeTime
10/14/18 1:24:15 AM
#221:


KamikazePotato posted...
Okay, Smash Bros, we get the point. You can get any newly-announced character you want into the contest even if they're going to suck.


To be fair Isabelle has become THE fan favorite of Animal Crossing series since the 3DS game but yah obviously Smash Bros Ult put her over
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AxemRedRanger
10/14/18 1:33:50 AM
#222:


...So I take it the Danganronpa fanbase is pretty bad then?
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:37:01 AM
#223:


Division 8 Match 7
Ellie vs. KOS-MOS


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6118-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-the-last
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5156-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-kos-mos-vs-dunban-vs

I really want to take Ellie here. KOS-MOS has to stop being voted for eventually, right? The Last of Us is significantly stronger than any Xenosaga game and everyone likes Ellie. No one actually cares about KOS-MOS. She's like Ryu Hayabusa except replace 'being a cool ninja' with 'being a hot robot' and...okay that's been working out well for Hayabusa so far but the buck has to stop somewhere. GameFAQs wouldn't vote a random robot over an actually really good character from a game they clearly appreciate simply because the robot has tits, right?

...

...

Result:
Ellie - 43%
KOS-MOS - 57%

KOS-MOS has an 85% chance of winning

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Division 8 Match 8
Aqua vs. Quiet


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4217-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Oh hey, a B8 Special character that is actually going to win!

Quiet should be the favorite here, and would be on any other site. MGS5 was a much bigger game than Kingdom Hearts: Another Portable Spinoff. The thing is, MGS5 wasn't received well on GameFAQs. At all. It did poorly in the 2015 Games Contest and that other poll I linked to is a really bad look as well. The game's writing and characterization were especially criticized and Quiet wasn't immune to that. And she's just...not that well-liked in the first place? I never once got the impression that she had remotely as many fans as any of the other MGS characters that have gotten into these contests, not even Otacon. I'm honestly surprised she got in at all.

Aqua would have been really weak back when her game first came out, but I think enough time has passed for the Kingdom Hearts fanbase to learn about her existence even without having had to play the game, especially since it seems like she'll be an important part of the story moving forward. So instead of really weak, she'll just be...weak. That's enough for me to take her over Quiet, who I have absolutely zero confidence in to win this match on her own merits rather than Aqua being bad.

Result:
Aqua - 56%
Quiet - 44%

Aqua has a 75% chance of winning
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KamikazePotato
10/14/18 1:39:27 AM
#224:


Round 1 over! With that, I'm going to bed.

AxemRedRanger posted...
...So I take it the Danganronpa fanbase is pretty bad then?

The DanganRonpa fanbase is like a concentrated mass of the worst worst parts of tumblr. If people thought that the Undertale fanbase was bad, they haven't seen anything yet.
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The Mana Sword
10/14/18 1:42:55 AM
#225:


KamikazePotato posted...
No one actually cares about KOS-MOS


speak for yourself!
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 1:48:57 AM
#226:


I don't even want to think about the sheer number of people who would be here doing Nagito impersonations.
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#227
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NowItsAngeTime
10/14/18 1:59:17 AM
#228:


I got kinda fair in Xenosaga 1 a few times

It has some cool story/character ideas but the pacing and gameplay were super hit or miss for me

I think a remake or remaster would make that game be so much better.
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KanzarisKelshen
10/14/18 2:12:18 AM
#229:


The more important thing for Aqua isn't BBS I think

it's KH Fragmentary Passage, AKA 'KH3: The Demo'. If you give even the slightest bit of a shit about KH, you bought the collection that included Fragmentary Passage just to see what the big game would be like. Hype power is real and I think that's what seals her victory, because she's the sole protag of a demo that revitalized the fanbase completely after years and years of bad handheld game mechanics.
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pyresword
10/14/18 2:15:49 AM
#230:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
It has some cool story/character ideas but the pacing and gameplay were super hit or miss for me

This is pretty much how I felt about Xenosaga. I loved the story (or what I saw of it), with KOS-MOS easily being the highlight, but I couldn't stomach the gameplay.
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#231
Post #231 was unavailable or deleted.
NowItsAngeTime
10/14/18 2:20:42 AM
#232:


pyresword posted...
NowItsAngeTime posted...
It has some cool story/character ideas but the pacing and gameplay were super hit or miss for me

This is pretty much how I felt about Xenosaga. I loved the story (or what I saw of it), with KOS-MOS easily being the highlight, but I couldn't stomach the gameplay.


While KOS-MOS was cool, I actually thought the main 6 (except maybe chaos he was boring to me) were all cool and/or had potential to grow into something interesting

Then of course there was Albedo who is quite the guy for a villain
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ZenOfThunder
10/14/18 8:07:45 AM
#233:


topic has been archived up to Aqua/Quiet

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465?page=2#146
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 9:05:49 AM
#234:


Man Division 8 is really pathetic.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 9:10:16 AM
#235:


KamikazePotato posted...
Division 6 Match 3
Sans vs. Pac-man


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6177-best-game-ever-final-undertale-vs-zelda-ocarina-of-time
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6200-best-of-2015-pc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5195-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-drake-vs-steve-vs-pac

Undertale is the best game ever, and the best PC game of 2015, but not the best game of 2015. I love polls.

No one cares about Pac-man, but everyone knows him. He's the ultimate character to vote for when you're apathetic about your options. Can Sans beat that? I definitely wouldn't be considering him if 2015 hadn't happened, but Undertale rather forcibly left a deep impression here. The game still doesn't have that much natural strength here, but you don't need that much to beat Pac-man. Sans will be getting a lot of anti-votes due to what happened in 2015, but few of those people would have voted him over Pac-man regardless, so...

Eh. I probably take Pac-man to be naturally stronger than Sans. Sans probably doesn't beat Nathan Drake either. Buuuut Sans has the internet to fall back. I don't think that Sans does what Undertale did in 2015 simply because people don't get worked up over the same bandwagon twice, but he will get smaller scale rallies like what Pokemon characters get all the time, and I think that will be enough to tip the scales even with the new anti-rally stuff in place. This is the first result I'm banking on that I think is an actual upset.

Sans - 51%
Pac-man - 49%

Sans has a 45% of winning

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Division 6 Match 4
Bayonetta vs. Riku


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5234-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-2-solid-snake-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5172-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-bayonetta-vs-n-vs

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3772-midgar-division-round-1-riku-vs-ramza-beoulve
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3815-midgar-division-round-2-riku-vs-captain-falcon
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5223-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-charizard-vs-riku-vs

So. Bayonetta was not very good in 2013. Since then she's had a sequel, her game ported to new systems, and a publicized Smash appearance. Wonder how that last bit turned out?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n96G4XP6rk" data-time="


Oh.

Riku has gotten weaker every year since he first appeared, and he got decked pretty hard by Charizard on 2013, but he's still naturally a lot stronger than Bayonetta and has KH3 on the horizon. Not expecting any big upsets here, although it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Bayonetta - 45%
Riku - 55%

Riku has an 80% chance of winning


I can't figure out if this is saying Bayonetta got a smash boost, or is it was a smash nerf because she is apparently the most hated thing since the blue shell.
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 9:15:10 AM
#236:


I mean everyone hated Meta Knight in Brawl and he's still decently strong so I don't buy into the mentality that Bayonetta won't get any help from being in Smash just because the competitive scene hates her
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charmander6000
10/14/18 9:29:31 AM
#237:


There's no doubt Bayonetta is stronger this year with Smash and Bayonetta 2 (and it being released on the Switch). Whether that's enough to defeat Riku is debatable...
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ExThaNemesis
10/14/18 10:12:20 AM
#238:


One thing you didn't mention for those picking Aqua is that the 2 vs. 15 thing is gonna help her because of being a bracket favorite.

I'm still taking Quiet coz I love her, but yeah.

Also it's frustrating that people lump Quiet in with the narrative problems MGSV had. She's one of the high points.
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GavsEvans123
10/14/18 12:42:00 PM
#239:


Could the Kingdom Hearts re-release / port collections help Aqua, since you don't need a PSP to play her game any more? Normally, ports or re-releases wouldn't make a significant difference to a character's strength, but I think Aqua might be an exception. The fact that she was popular enough to be the main character of Kingdom Hearts Ground Zeroes definitely bodes well for her.
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Mac Arrowny
10/14/18 12:43:40 PM
#240:


Without those ports she wouldn't even have been nominated and would definitely lose to Quiet.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 1:00:57 PM
#241:


I'm strongly considering picking her over Kos-Mos tbh.
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#242
Post #242 was unavailable or deleted.
NeoElfboy
10/14/18 1:28:56 PM
#243:


UltimaterializerX posted...
We just had a tournament where Bayonetta was allowed and people walked out on the final because it was a Bayonetta mirror, with the winner getting death threats.


Has the Smash fanbase actually gotten this bad? WTF.
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Ranticoot
10/14/18 1:30:32 PM
#244:


NeoElfboy posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
We just had a tournament where Bayonetta was allowed and people walked out on the final because it was a Bayonetta mirror, with the winner getting death threats.


Has the Smash fanbase actually gotten this bad? WTF.

yeah

even casual spectators hate bayonetta. she is far, far, FAR more hated than meta knight ever was.

smash probably did more to make bayonetta into an anti-vote magnet than something with real strength.
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pyresword
10/14/18 1:35:12 PM
#245:


UltimaterializerX posted...
charmander6000 posted...
There's no doubt Bayonetta is stronger this year with Smash and Bayonetta 2 (and it being released on the Switch). Whether that's enough to defeat Riku is debatable...

Bayonetta is a loathed character in Smash, and she's DLC only. If she beats Riku, it'll be because of Bayonetta 2 strength.

Which she can do, but don't bank on Smash fans for this one. Trust me. We just had a tournament where Bayonetta was allowed and people walked out on the final because it was a Bayonetta mirror, with the winner getting death threats. If Smash fans notice that match they'll vote Riku out of spite.

As sad as it is, the bolded part is not a phenomenon exclusive to this one event or only to Bayonetta players.

The general gist of the post is right though. Bayonetta as a Smash character is hated by pretty much everyone in the competitive scene--players or spectators--and to a much much larger degree than any previous Smash character has been.
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#246
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#247
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 1:45:01 PM
#248:


From Smash board:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/75954570

I dunno man feels like one of those cases where competitive is disconnected from casual.
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#249
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pyresword
10/14/18 2:03:42 PM
#250:


As with literally any other collective of people on the planet, the Smash community is by and large a reasonable group of people with a small number of extreme exceptions who are the ones that get the attention of rabble rousers so that they can try to make an example out of the entire community.

edit: Ok "literally any other" is probably not actually true but you know what I'm trying to say here.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 2:07:28 PM
#251:


UltimaterializerX posted...
52 votes.


Seems like a decent sample size to me, I doubt the margin of error of that will be that great. Point is, Smash players who browse gameFAQs still like Bayonetta more than they hate her.

Also note that a lot of people are posting in that topic that "they like Bayonetta in her games but not in Smash", which is meaningful because we are not seeing a game-specific version in the contest.
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